Modelling future land use land cover changes and their impacts on urban heat island intensity in Guangzhou, China.

During rapid urbanization in developing countries, changes in land use and land cover (LULC) can significantly alter urban land surface temperatures (LST), exacerbating the urban heat island (UHI) effect and degrading the outdoor environment. In this study, taking Guangzhou, China, as an example, we used Landsat series satellite data from 1992 to 2022, classified the LULC of the study area by the Support Vector Machine (SVM) method, estimated the LST of the area by the mono-window algorithm, and classified the LST of the study area into five UHI intensity classes based on the normalized values of the LST, and explored the influence of the LULC on the distribution of the UHI intensity. The CA-ANN (cellular automata-artificial neural network) model in QGIS software was employed to forecast the distribution of LULC and UHI intensity in Guangzhou for 2032. The findings reveal a strong correlation between UHI intensity and LULC, with water bodies and vegetation primarily exhibiting low and sub-low temperatures, while urban areas exhibit sub-high and high temperatures. The prediction results show that, according to the current development trend, compared with 1992, the water body and vegetation cover in 2032 will decrease by 46.97% and 34.24%, the building land will increase by 263.71%, and the sub-high and high temperature areas will increase by 127.76% and 375.92%. By analysing the spatial and temporal changes in LULC and its relationship with the distribution of UHI intensity during urbanization, this study assists government administrations and urban planners in devising sensible urban development strategies and implementing effective measures to plan LULC rationally. This approach aims to mitigate the impacts of the urban heat island and foster sustainable urbanization.

Xiang X ，Zhai Z ，Fan C ，Ding Y ，Ye L ，Li J ... -  《-》

Analysis and simulation of land cover changes and their impacts on land surface temperature in a lower Himalayan region.

Rapid urbanization is changing the existing patterns of Land Use Land Cover (LULC) globally which is consequently increasing the Land Surface Temperature (LST) in many regions. Present study was focused on estimating the current and simulating the future LULC and LST trends in the alpine environment of lower Himalayan region of Pakistan. Past patterns of LULC and LST were identified through the Support Vector Machine (SVM) and multi-spectral Landsat satellite images during 1987-2017 data period. The Cellular automata (CA) model and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) were applied to simulate future (years 2032 and 2047) LULC and LST changes, respectively, using their past patterns. CA model was validated for the simulated and the estimated LULC for the year 2017 with an overall Kappa (K) value of 0.77 using validation modules in QGIS and IDRISI software. ANN method was validated by correlating the observed and simulated LST for the year 2017 with correlation coefficient (R) and Mean Square Error (MSE) values of 0.81 and 0.51, respectively. Results indicated a change in the LULC and LST for instance the built-up area was increased by 4.43% while agricultural area and bare soil were reduced by 2.74% and 4.42%, respectively, from 1987 to 2017. The analysis of LST for different LULC classes indicated that built-up area has highest temperature followed by barren, agriculture and vegetation surfaces. Simulation of future LULC and LST showed that the built-up area will be increased by 2.27% (in 2032) and 4.13% (in 2047) which led 42% (in 2032) and 60% (in 2047) of the study area as compared to 26% area (in 2017) to experience LST greater than 27 °C. A strong correlation between built-up area changes and LST was thus found signifying major challenge to urban planners mitigating the consequent of Urban Heat Island (UHI) phenomenon. It is suggested that future urban planning should focus on urban plantation to counter UHI phenomena in the region of lower Himalayas.

Ullah S ，Ahmad K ，Sajjad RU ，Abbasi AM ，Nazeer A ，Tahir AA ... -  《-》

Evaluating the impact of urbanization on the urban heat islands through integrated radius and non-linear regression approach.

Urban heat islands (UHIs) are a significant environmental problem, exacerbating the urban climate and affecting human health in the Asir region of Saudi Arabia. The need to understand the spatio-temporal dynamics of UHI in the context of urban expansion is crucial for sustainable urban planning. The aim of this study was to quantify the changes in land use and land cover (LULC) and urbanization, assess the expansion process of UHI, and analyze its connectivity in order to develop strategies to mitigate UHI in an urban context over a 30-year period from 1990 to 2020. Using remote sensing data, LULC changes were analyzed with a random forest model. LULC change rate (LCCR), land cover intensity (LCI), and landscape expansion index (LEI) were calculated to quantify urbanization. The land surface temperature for the study period was calculated using the mono-window algorithm. The UHI effect was analyzed using an integrated radius and non-linear regression approach, fitting SUHI data to polynomial curves and identifying turning points based on the regression derivative for UHI intensity belts to quantify the expansion and intensification of UHI. Landscape metrics such as the aggregation index (AI), landscape shape index (LSI), and four other matrices were calculated to assess UHI morphology and connectivity of the UHI. In addition, the LEI was adopted to measure the extent of UHI growth patterns. From 1990 to 2020, the study area experienced significant urbanization, with the built-up area increasing from 69.40 to 338.74 km2, an increase of 1.923 to 9.385% of the total area. This expansion included growth in peripheral areas of 129.33 km2, peripheral expansion of 85.40 km2, and infilling of 3.80 km2. At the same time, the UHI effect intensified with an increase in mean LST from 40.55 to 46.73 °C. The spatial extent of the UHI increased, as shown by the increase in areas with an LST above 50 °C from 36.58 km2 in 1990 to 133.52 km2 in 2020. The connectivity of the UHI also increased, as shown by the increase in the AI from 38.91 to 41.30 and the LSI from 56.72 to 93.64, reflecting a more irregular and fragmented urban landscape. In parallel to these urban changes, the area classified as UHI increased significantly, with the peripheral areas expanding from 23.99 km2 in the period 1990-2000 to 80.86 km2 in the period 2000-2020. Peripheral areas also grew significantly from 36.42 to 96.27 km2, contributing to an overall more pronounced and interconnected UHI effect by 2020. This study provides a comprehensive analysis of urban expansion and its thermal impacts. It highlights the need for integrated urban planning that includes strategies to mitigate the UHI effect, such as improving green infrastructure, optimizing land use, and improving urban design to counteract the negative effects of urbanization.

Bindajam AA ，Hang HT ，Alshayeb MJ ，Shohan AAA ，Mallick J ... -  《-》

Quantitative assessment of land surface temperature and vegetation indices on a kilometer grid scale.

Due to expanding populations and thriving economies, studies into the built environment's thermal characteristics have increased. This research tracks and predicts how land use and land cover (LULC) changes may affect ground temperatures, urban heat islands, and city thermal fields (UTFVI). The current study examines land surface temperature (LST), urban thermal field variance index (UTFVI), normalized difference built-up index (NDBI), normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), and land use land cover (LULC) on a kilometer scale. According to the comparative study, the mean LST decreases by 3 °C and the NDVI increases considerably. Correlation analysis showed that LST and NDVI are inversely connected, while LST and NDBI are positively correlated. NDVI and NDBI have a strong negative association, while LST and UTFVI have a positive correlation. Urban planners and environmentalists can study the LST's effects on land surface parameters in different environmental contexts during the lockout period. The urban heat island (UHI) phenomenon, in which the land surface qualities of an urban region cause a change in the urban thermal environment, forms and intensifies over an urban area. The minimum and maximum LST in grid number 1 in 2009 was 20.30 °C and 29.91 °C, respectively, with a mean LST of 25.1 °C. There was a decline in the minimum and maximum LST in grid number 1 in 2020 with a minimum and maximum LST of 17.31 °C and 25.35 °C, respectively, with a mean LST of 21.33 °C. There was a 3.8 °C drop in the LST of this grid. The minimum and maximum NDVI were also - 0.16 and 0.59, respectively, with an average NDVI value of 0.21. Therefore, it is essential to evaluate and foresee the impact of LULC change on the thermal environment and examines the connection between LULC shifts with subsequent changes in land surface temperature (LST) along with the UHI phenomenon. Maps of the UTFVI reveal positive UHI phenomena, with the highest UTFVI zones occurring over the developed area and none over the adjacent rural territory. During the summer months, the urban area with the strongest UTFVI zone grows noticeably larger than it does during the winter months during the forecasted years. Future policymakers and city planners can mitigate the effects of heat stress and create more sustainable urban environments by evaluating the expected distribution maps of LULC, LST, UHI, and UTFVI.

Kikon N ，Kumar D ，Ahmed SA 《-》

Predicting changes in land use/land cover and seasonal land surface temperature using multi-temporal landsat images in the northwest region of Bangladesh.

Land use/land cover (LULC) variations are accelerated by rapid urbanization and significantly impacted global Land Surface Temperature (LST). The dynamic increase in LST results in the Urban Heat Island (UHI) effect. In this study, future LULC change scenarios, seasonal (summer & winter) LST variations, and LST distribution over different LULC classes were predicted using Landsat satellite images for 1999, 2009, and 2019 in Rajshahi District, Bangladesh. Cellular Automata (CA) and Artificial Neural Network (ANN) procedures were used to predict the LULC changes and seasonal LST variations for 2029 and 2039. In addition, Focus Group Discussions (FGDs) and Key Informants Interviews (KIIs) were conducted to identify the possible impacts of LULC change, LST shifts, and climate change on agricultural productivity and developed a sustainable land use management plan for the study area. Validation of the CA model demonstrated an excellent accuracy with a kappa value of 0.82. Similarly, the ANN model's validation using Mean Square Error (0.523 and 0.796 for summer) and Correlation coefficient (0.6023 and 0.831 for winter) values demonstrated a good prediction accuracy. The LULC prediction result indicated that the built-up area will be expanded by 58.03 km2 and 79.90 km2, respectively, from 2019 to 2029 and 2039. The predicted seasonal LST indicated that in 2029 and 2039, more than 23.30 % and 50.46 % of the summer and 3.02 % and 13.02 % of the winter seasons will likely be experienced LSTs greater than 35 °C. The results of public participation exposed that changes in LULC classes, variations in LST, and climate change significantly impact the regional biodiversity (loss of farmland and water bodies), reduce agricultural productivity, and increase extreme weather events (flood, heavy rainfall, and cold/warm temperature). This study provides the useful guidelines for agricultural officers, urban planners, and environmental engineers to understand the spatial configurations of built-up area enlargement and provide effective policy measures to conserve farming lands to ensure environmental sustainability.

Kafy AA ，Faisal AA ，Al Rakib A ，Roy S ，Ferdousi J ，Raikwar V ，Kona MA ，Fatin SMAA ... -  《Heliyon》