The vascular endothelial growth factor as a candidate biomarker of systemic lupus erythematosus: a GRADE-assessed systematic review and meta-analysis.

There is an ongoing search for novel biomarkers of endothelial damage, active disease, and organ dysfunction in systemic lupus erythematosus (SLE). We investigated the role of the vascular endothelial growth factor (VEGF) as a candidate biomarker by conducting a systematic review and meta-analysis of studies examining VEGF concentrations in SLE patients and healthy controls. We searched electronic databases (PubMed, Scopus, and Web of Science) from inception to 31 May 2024 (inclusion criteria: VEGF measurement in SLE patients and healthy controls and SLE patients with and without active disease or specific organ dysfunction in case-control studies, recruitment of adult participants, and availability of the full text in the English language; exclusion criteria: non-case-control studies, participants under 18 years, articles reporting duplicate or irrelevant data, and animal studies). We assessed the risk of bias and the certainty of evidence using the JBI Critical Appraisal Checklist and GRADE, respectively (PROSPERO registration number: CRD42024561636). Circulating VEGF concentrations were significantly higher in SLE patients than in controls (22 studies; standardised mean difference, SMD = 0.71, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.98, p < 0.001; low certainty of evidence). In SLE patients, VEGF concentrations were significantly higher in those with active disease (six studies; SMD = 1.10, 95% CI 0.27 to 1.92, p = 0.009; very low certainty of evidence) and lupus nephritis (four studies; SMD = 0.80, 95% CI 0.03 to 1.57, p = 0.042; very low certainty of evidence). Only one study reported VEGF concentrations in SLE patients with and without pulmonary arterial hypertension. The effect size of the differences in VEGF concentrations between SLE patients and controls was not associated with disease duration, use of glucocorticoids and immunosuppressors, biological matrix assessed, or analytical method used. However, it was significantly associated with the study's geographical location. The evidence was limited by the high but partially explainable heterogeneity and the presence of publication bias which was addressed with the "trim-and-fill" method (SLE presence), the high but partially explainable heterogeneity and lack of assessment of publication bias because of the limited study number (active disease), and the limited study number preventing the identification of sources of heterogeneity, sensitivity analysis, and assessment of publication bias (lupus nephritis). Our results highlight VEGF's potential role as a SLE biomarker and the need for further research, also given the aforementioned limitations, investigating VEGF concentrations in a wide range of SLE patient subgroups.

Mangoni AA ，Zinellu A 《-》

Falls prevention interventions for community-dwelling older adults: systematic review and meta-analysis of benefits, harms, and patient values and preferences.

About 20-30% of older adults (≥ 65 years old) experience one or more falls each year, and falls are associated with substantial burden to the health care system, individuals, and families from resulting injuries, fractures, and reduced functioning and quality of life. Many interventions for preventing falls have been studied, and their effectiveness, factors relevant to their implementation, and patient preferences may determine which interventions to use in primary care. The aim of this set of reviews was to inform recommendations by the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care (task force) on fall prevention interventions. We undertook three systematic reviews to address questions about the following: (i) the benefits and harms of interventions, (ii) how patients weigh the potential outcomes (outcome valuation), and (iii) patient preferences for different types of interventions, and their attributes, shown to offer benefit (intervention preferences). We searched four databases for benefits and harms (MEDLINE, Embase, AgeLine, CENTRAL, to August 25, 2023) and three for outcome valuation and intervention preferences (MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, to June 9, 2023). For benefits and harms, we relied heavily on a previous review for studies published until 2016. We also searched trial registries, references of included studies, and recent reviews. Two reviewers independently screened studies. The population of interest was community-dwelling adults ≥ 65 years old. We did not limit eligibility by participant fall history. The task force rated several outcomes, decided on their eligibility, and provided input on the effect thresholds to apply for each outcome (fallers, falls, injurious fallers, fractures, hip fractures, functional status, health-related quality of life, long-term care admissions, adverse effects, serious adverse effects). For benefits and harms, we included a broad range of non-pharmacological interventions relevant to primary care. Although usual care was the main comparator of interest, we included studies comparing interventions head-to-head and conducted a network meta-analysis (NMAs) for each outcome, enabling analysis of interventions lacking direct comparisons to usual care. For benefits and harms, we included randomized controlled trials with a minimum 3-month follow-up and reporting on one of our fall outcomes (fallers, falls, injurious fallers); for the other questions, we preferred quantitative data but considered qualitative findings to fill gaps in evidence. No date limits were applied for benefits and harms, whereas for outcome valuation and intervention preferences we included studies published in 2000 or later. All data were extracted by one trained reviewer and verified for accuracy and completeness. For benefits and harms, we relied on the previous review team's risk-of-bias assessments for benefit outcomes, but otherwise, two reviewers independently assessed the risk of bias (within and across study). For the other questions, one reviewer verified another's assessments. Consensus was used, with adjudication by a lead author when necessary. A coding framework, modified from the ProFANE taxonomy, classified interventions and their attributes (e.g., supervision, delivery format, duration/intensity). For benefit outcomes, we employed random-effects NMA using a frequentist approach and a consistency model. Transitivity and coherence were assessed using meta-regressions and global and local coherence tests, as well as through graphical display and descriptive data on the composition of the nodes with respect to major pre-planned effect modifiers. We assessed heterogeneity using prediction intervals. For intervention-related adverse effects, we pooled proportions except for vitamin D for which we considered data in the control groups and undertook random-effects pairwise meta-analysis using a relative risk (any adverse effects) or risk difference (serious adverse effects). For outcome valuation, we pooled disutilities (representing the impact of a negative event, e.g. fall, on one's usual quality of life, with 0 = no impact and 1 = death and ~ 0.05 indicating important disutility) from the EQ-5D utility measurement using the inverse variance method and a random-effects model and explored heterogeneity. When studies only reported other data, we compared the findings with our main analysis. For intervention preferences, we used a coding schema identifying whether there were strong, clear, no, or variable preferences within, and then across, studies. We assessed the certainty of evidence for each outcome using CINeMA for benefit outcomes and GRADE for all other outcomes. A total of 290 studies were included across the reviews, with two studies included in multiple questions. For benefits and harms, we included 219 trials reporting on 167,864 participants and created 59 interventions (nodes). Transitivity and coherence were assessed as adequate. Across eight NMAs, the number of contributing trials ranged between 19 and 173, and the number of interventions ranged from 19 to 57. Approximately, half of the interventions in each network had at least low certainty for benefit. The fallers outcome had the highest number of interventions with moderate certainty for benefit (18/57). For the non-fall outcomes (fractures, hip fracture, long-term care [LTC] admission, functional status, health-related quality of life), many interventions had very low certainty evidence, often from lack of data. We prioritized findings from 21 interventions where there was moderate certainty for at least some benefit. Fourteen of these had a focus on exercise, the majority being supervised (for > 2 sessions) and of long duration (> 3 months), and with balance/resistance and group Tai Chi interventions generally having the most outcomes with at least low certainty for benefit. None of the interventions having moderate certainty evidence focused on walking. Whole-body vibration or home-hazard assessment (HHA) plus exercise provided to everyone showed moderate certainty for some benefit. No multifactorial intervention alone showed moderate certainty for any benefit. Six interventions only had very-low certainty evidence for the benefit outcomes. Two interventions had moderate certainty of harmful effects for at least one benefit outcome, though the populations across studies were at high risk for falls. Vitamin D and most single-component exercise interventions are probably associated with minimal adverse effects. Some uncertainty exists about possible adverse effects from other interventions. For outcome valuation, we included 44 studies of which 34 reported EQ-5D disutilities. Admission to long-term care had the highest disutility (1.0), but the evidence was rated as low certainty. Both fall-related hip (moderate certainty) and non-hip (low certainty) fracture may result in substantial disutility (0.53 and 0.57) in the first 3 months after injury. Disutility for both hip and non-hip fractures is probably lower 12 months after injury (0.16 and 0.19, with high and moderate certainty, respectively) compared to within the first 3 months. No study measured the disutility of an injurious fall. Fractures are probably more important than either falls (0.09 over 12 months) or functional status (0.12). Functional status may be somewhat more important than falls. For intervention preferences, 29 studies (9 qualitative) reported on 17 comparisons among single-component interventions showing benefit. Exercise interventions focusing on balance and/or resistance training appear to be clearly preferred over Tai Chi and other forms of exercise (e.g., yoga, aerobic). For exercise programs in general, there is probably variability among people in whether they prefer group or individual delivery, though there was high certainty that individual was preferred over group delivery of balance/resistance programs. Balance/resistance exercise may be preferred over education, though the evidence was low certainty. There was low certainty for a slight preference for education over cognitive-behavioral therapy, and group education may be preferred over individual education. To prevent falls among community-dwelling older adults, evidence is most certain for benefit, at least over 1-2 years, from supervised, long-duration balance/resistance and group Tai Chi interventions, whole-body vibration, high-intensity/dose education or cognitive-behavioral therapy, and interventions of comprehensive multifactorial assessment with targeted treatment plus HHA, HHA plus exercise, or education provided to everyone. Adding other interventions to exercise does not appear to substantially increase benefits. Overall, effects appear most applicable to those with elevated fall risk. Choice among effective interventions that are available may best depend on individual patient preferences, though when implementing new balance/resistance programs delivering individual over group sessions when feasible may be most acceptable. Data on more patient-important outcomes including fall-related fractures and adverse effects would be beneficial, as would studies focusing on equity-deserving populations and on programs delivered virtually. Not registered.

Pillay J ，Gaudet LA ，Saba S ，Vandermeer B ，Ashiq AR ，Wingert A ，Hartling L ... -  《Systematic Reviews》

Topical fluoride as a cause of dental fluorosis in children.

This is an update of a review first published in 2010. Use of topical fluoride has become more common over time. Excessive fluoride consumption from topical fluorides in young children could potentially lead to dental fluorosis in permanent teeth. To describe the relationship between the use of topical fluorides in young children and the risk of developing dental fluorosis in permanent teeth. We carried out electronic searches of the Cochrane Oral Health Trials Register, CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, three other databases, and two trials registers. We searched the reference lists of relevant articles. The latest search date was 28 July 2022. We included randomized controlled trials (RCTs), quasi-RCTs, cohort studies, case-control studies, and cross-sectional surveys comparing fluoride toothpaste, mouth rinses, gels, foams, paint-on solutions, and varnishes to a different fluoride therapy, placebo, or no intervention. Upon the introduction of topical fluorides, the target population was children under six years of age. We used standard methodological procedures expected by Cochrane and used GRADE to assess the certainty of the evidence. The primary outcome measure was the percentage prevalence of fluorosis in the permanent teeth. Two authors extracted data from all included studies. In cases where both adjusted and unadjusted risk ratios or odds ratios were reported, we used the adjusted value in the meta-analysis. We included 43 studies: three RCTs, four cohort studies, 10 case-control studies, and 26 cross-sectional surveys. We judged all three RCTs, one cohort study, one case-control study, and six cross-sectional studies to have some concerns for risk of bias. We judged all other observational studies to be at high risk of bias. We grouped the studies into five comparisons. Comparison 1. Age at which children started toothbrushing with fluoride toothpaste Two cohort studies (260 children) provided very uncertain evidence regarding the association between children starting to use fluoride toothpaste for brushing at or before 12 months versus after 12 months and the development of fluorosis (risk ratio (RR) 0.98, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.81 to 1.18; very low-certainty evidence). Similarly, evidence from one cohort study (3939 children) and two cross-sectional studies (1484 children) provided very uncertain evidence regarding the association between children starting to use fluoride toothpaste for brushing before or after the age of 24 months (RR 0.83, 95% CI 0.61 to 1.13; very low-certainty evidence) or before or after four years (odds ratio (OR) 1.60, 95% CI 0.77 to 3.35; very low-certainty evidence), respectively. Comparison 2. Frequency of toothbrushing with fluoride toothpaste Two case-control studies (258 children) provided very uncertain evidence regarding the association between children brushing less than twice per day versus twice or more per day and the development of fluorosis (OR 1.63, 95% CI 0.81 to 3.28; very low-certainty evidence). Two cross-sectional surveys (1693 children) demonstrated that brushing less than once per day versus once or more per day may be associated with a decrease in the development of fluorosis in children (OR 0.62, 95% CI 0.53 to 0.74; low-certainty evidence). Comparison 3. Amount of fluoride toothpaste used for toothbrushing Two case-control studies (258 children) provided very uncertain evidence regarding the association between children using less than half a brush of toothpaste, versus half or more of the brush, and the development of fluorosis (OR 0.77, 95% CI 0.41 to 1.46; very low-certainty evidence). The evidence from cross-sectional surveys was also very uncertain (OR 0.92, 95% CI 0.66 to 1.28; 3 studies, 2037 children; very low-certainty evidence). Comparison 4. Fluoride concentration in toothpaste There was evidence from two RCTs (1968 children) that lower fluoride concentration in the toothpaste used by children under six years of age likely reduces the risk of developing fluorosis: 550 parts per million (ppm) fluoride versus 1000 ppm (RR 0.75, 95% CI 0.57 to 0.99; moderate-certainty evidence); 440 ppm fluoride versus 1450 ppm (RR 0.72, 95% CI 0.58 to 0.89; moderate-certainty evidence). The age at which the toothbrushing commenced was 24 months and 12 months, respectively. Two case-control studies (258 children) provided very uncertain evidence regarding the association between fluoride concentrations under 1000 ppm, versus concentrations of 1000 ppm or above, and the development of fluorosis (OR 0.89, 95% CI 0.52 to 1.52; very low-certainty evidence). Comparison 5. Age at which topical fluoride varnish was applied There was evidence from one RCT (123 children) that there may be little to no difference between a fluoride varnish application before four years, versus no application, and the development of fluorosis (RR 0.77, 95% CI 0.45 to 1.31; low-certainty evidence). There was low-certainty evidence from two cross-sectional surveys (982 children) that the application of topical fluoride varnish before four years of age may be associated with the development of fluorosis in children (OR 2.18, 95% CI 1.46 to 3.25). Most evidence identified mild fluorosis as a potential adverse outcome of using topical fluoride at an early age. There is low- to very low-certainty and inconclusive evidence on the risk of having fluorosis in permanent teeth for: when a child starts receiving topical fluoride varnish application; toothbrushing with fluoride toothpaste; the amount of toothpaste used by the child; and the frequency of toothbrushing. Moderate-certainty evidence from RCTs showed that children who brushed with 1000 ppm or more fluoride toothpaste from one to two years of age until five to six years of age probably had an increased chance of developing dental fluorosis in permanent teeth. It is unethical to propose new RCTs to assess the development of dental fluorosis. However, future RCTs focusing on dental caries prevention could record children's exposure to topical fluoride sources in early life and evaluate the dental fluorosis in their permanent teeth as a long-term outcome. In the absence of these studies and methods, further research in this area will come from observational studies. Attention needs to be given to the choice of study design, bearing in mind that prospective controlled studies will be less susceptible to bias than retrospective and uncontrolled studies.

Wong MCM ，Zhang R ，Luo BW ，Glenny AM ，Worthington HV ，Lo ECM ... -  《Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews》

Diabetes as a risk factor for tuberculosis disease.

Franco JV ，Bongaerts B ，Metzendorf MI ，Risso A ，Guo Y ，Peña Silva L ，Boeckmann M ，Schlesinger S ，Damen JA ，Richter B ，Baddeley A ，Bastard M ，Carlqvist A ，Garcia-Casal MN ，Hemmingsen B ，Mavhunga F ，Manne-Goehler J ，Viney K ... -  《Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews》

Undernutrition as a risk factor for tuberculosis disease.

Tuberculosis (TB) is a leading cause of mortality due to an infectious disease, with an estimated 1.6 million deaths due to TB in 2022. Approximately 25% of the global population has TB infection, giving rise to 10.6 million episodes of TB disease in 2022. Undernutrition is a key risk factor for TB and was linked to an estimated 2.2 million TB episodes in 2022, as outlined in the World Health Organization (WHO) Global Tuberculosis Report. To determine the prognostic value of undernutrition in the general population of adults, adolescents, and children for predicting tuberculosis disease over any time period. We searched the literature databases MEDLINE (via PubMed) and WHO Global Index Medicus, as well as the WHO International Clinical Trials Registry Platform (ICTRP) on 3 May 2023 (date of last search for all databases). We placed no restrictions on the language of publication. We included retrospective and prospective cohort studies, irrespective of publication status or language. The target population comprised adults, adolescents, and children from diverse settings, encompassing outpatient and inpatient cohorts, with varying comorbidities and risk of exposure to tuberculosis. We used standard Cochrane methodology and the Quality In Prognosis Studies (QUIPS) tool to assess the risk of bias of the studies. Prognostic factors included undernutrition, defined as wasting, stunting, and underweight, with specific measures such as body mass index (BMI) less than two standard deviations below the median for children and adolescents and low BMI scores (< 18.5) for adults and adolescents. Prognostication occurred at enrolment/baseline. The primary outcome was the incidence of TB disease. The secondary outcome was recurrent TB disease. We performed a random-effects meta-analysis for the adjusted hazard ratios (HR), risk ratios (RR), or odds ratios (OR), employing the restricted maximum likelihood estimation. We rated the certainty of the evidence using the GRADE approach. We included 51 cohort studies with over 27 million participants from the six WHO regions. Sixteen large population-based studies were conducted in China, Singapore, South Korea, and the USA, and 25 studies focused on people living with HIV, which were mainly conducted in the African region. Most studies were in adults, four in children, and three in children and adults. Undernutrition as an exposure was usually defined according to standard criteria; however, the diagnosis of TB did not include a confirmatory culture or molecular diagnosis using a WHO-approved rapid diagnostic test in eight studies. The median follow-up time was 3.5 years, and the studies primarily reported an adjusted hazard ratio from a multivariable Cox-proportional hazard model. Hazard ratios (HR) The HR estimates represent the highest certainty of the evidence, explored through sensitivity analyses and excluding studies at high risk of bias. We present 95% confidence intervals (CI) and prediction intervals, which present between-study heterogeneity represented in a measurement of the variability of effect sizes (i.e. the interval within which the effect size of a new study would fall considering the same population of studies included in the meta-analysis). Undernutrition may increase the risk of TB disease (HR 2.23, 95% CI 1.83 to 2.72; prediction interval 0.98 to 5.05; 23 studies; 2,883,266 participants). The certainty of the evidence is low due to a moderate risk of bias across studies and inconsistency. When stratified by follow-up time, the results are more consistent across < 10 years follow-up (HR 2.02, 95% CI 1.74 to 2.34; prediction interval 1.20 to 3.39; 22 studies; 2,869,077 participants). This results in a moderate certainty of evidence due to a moderate risk of bias across studies. However, at 10 or more years of follow-up, we found only one study with a wider CI and higher HR (HR 12.43, 95% CI 5.74 to 26.91; 14,189 participants). The certainty of the evidence is low due to the moderate risk of bias and indirectness. Odds ratio (OR) Undernutrition may increase the odds of TB disease, but the results are uncertain (OR 1.56, 95% CI 1.13 to 2.17; prediction interval 0.61 to 3.99; 8 studies; 173,497 participants). Stratification by follow-up was not possible as all studies had a follow-up of < 10 years. The certainty of the evidence is very low due to the high risk of bias and inconsistency. Contour-enhanced funnel plots were not reported due to the few studies included. Risk ratio (RR) Undernutrition may increase the risk of TB disease (RR 1.95, 95% CI 1.72 to 2.20; prediction interval 1.49 to 2.55; 4 studies; 1,475,867 participants). Stratification by follow-up was not possible as all studies had a follow-up of < 10 years. The certainty of the evidence is low due to the high risk of bias. Contour-enhanced funnel plots were not reported due to the few studies included. Undernutrition probably increases the risk of TB two-fold in the short term (< 10 years) and may also increase the risk in the long term (> 10 years). Policies targeted towards the reduction of the burden of undernutrition are not only needed to alleviate human suffering due to undernutrition and its many adverse consequences, but are also an important part of the critical measures for ending the TB epidemic by 2030. Large population-based cohorts, including those derived from high-quality national registries of exposures (undernutrition) and outcomes (TB disease), are needed to provide high-certainty estimates of this risk across different settings and populations, including low and middle-income countries from different WHO regions. Moreover, studies including children and adolescents and state-of-the-art methods for diagnosing TB would provide more up-to-date information relevant to practice and policy. World Health Organization (203256442). PROSPERO registration: CRD42023408807 Protocol: https://doi.org/10.1002/14651858.CD015890.

Franco JV ，Bongaerts B ，Metzendorf MI ，Risso A ，Guo Y ，Peña Silva L ，Boeckmann M ，Schlesinger S ，Damen JA ，Richter B ，Baddeley A ，Bastard M ，Carlqvist A ，Garcia-Casal MN ，Hemmingsen B ，Mavhunga F ，Manne-Goehler J ，Viney K ... -  《Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews》