MRI-based radiomics feature combined with tumor markers to predict TN staging of rectal cancer.

The aim of this study is to evaluate the predictive ability of MRI-based radiomics combined with tumor markers for TN staging in patients with rectal cancer and to develop a prediction model for TN staging. A total of 190 patients with rectal adenocarcinoma who underwent total mesorectal excision at the First Affiliated Hospital of the Air Force Medical University between January 2016 and December 2020 were included in the study. An additional 54 patients from a prospective validation cohort were included between August 2022 and August 2023. Preoperative tumor markers and MRI imaging data were collected from all enrolled patients. The 190 patients were divided into a training cohort (n = 133) and a validation cohort (n = 57). Radiomics features were extracted by outlining the region of interest (ROI) on T2WI sequence images. Feature selection and radiomics score (Rad-score) construction were performed using least absolute shrinkage and selection operator regression analysis (LASSO). The postoperative pathology TNM stage was used to differentiate locally advanced rectal cancer (T3/4 or N1/2) from locally early rectal cancer (T1/2, N0). Logistic regression was used to construct separate prediction models for T stage and N stage. The models' predictive performance was evaluated using DCA curves and calibration curves. The T staging model showed that Rad-score, based on 8 radiomics features, was an independent predictor of T staging. When combined with CEA, tumor diameter, mesoretal fascia (MRF), and extramural venous invasion (EMVI), it effectively differentiated between T1/2 and T3/4 stage rectal cancers in the training cohort (AUC 0.87 [95% CI: 0.81-0.93]). The N-staging model found that Rad-score, based on 10 radiomics features, was an independent predictor of N-staging. When combined with CA19.9, degree of differentiation, and EMVI, it effectively differentiated between N0 and N1/2 stage rectal cancers. The training cohort had an AUC of 0.84 (95% CI: 0.77-0.91). The calibration curves demonstrated good precision between the predicted and actual results. The DCA curves indicated that both sets of predictive models could provide net clinical benefits for diagnosis. MRI-based radiomics features are independent predictors of T staging and N staging. When combined with tumor markers, they have good predictive efficacy for TN staging of rectal cancer.

Liu Z ，Zhang J ，Wang H ，Chen X ，Song J ，Xu D ，Li J ，Zheng M ... -  《-》

Comparison of Two Modern Survival Prediction Tools, SORG-MLA and METSSS, in Patients With Symptomatic Long-bone Metastases Who Underwent Local Treatment With Surgery Followed by Radiotherapy and With Radiotherapy Alone.

Survival estimation for patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases ideally should be made before a type of local treatment has already been determined. Currently available survival prediction tools, however, were generated using data from patients treated either operatively or with local radiation alone, raising concerns about whether they would generalize well to all patients presenting for assessment. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine-learning algorithm (SORG-MLA), trained with institution-based data of surgically treated patients, and the Metastases location, Elderly, Tumor primary, Sex, Sickness/comorbidity, and Site of radiotherapy model (METSSS), trained with registry-based data of patients treated with radiotherapy alone, are two of the most recently developed survival prediction models, but they have not been tested on patients whose local treatment strategy is not yet decided. (1) Which of these two survival prediction models performed better in a mixed cohort made up both of patients who received local treatment with surgery followed by radiotherapy and who had radiation alone for symptomatic bone metastases? (2) Which model performed better among patients whose local treatment consisted of only palliative radiotherapy? (3) Are laboratory values used by SORG-MLA, which are not included in METSSS, independently associated with survival after controlling for predictions made by METSSS? Between 2010 and 2018, we provided local treatment for 2113 adult patients with skeletal metastases in the extremities at an urban tertiary referral academic medical center using one of two strategies: (1) surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy or (2) palliative radiotherapy alone. Every patient's survivorship status was ascertained either by their medical records or the national death registry from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Administration. After applying a priori designated exclusion criteria, 91% (1920) were analyzed here. Among them, 48% (920) of the patients were female, and the median (IQR) age was 62 years (53 to 70 years). Lung was the most common primary tumor site (41% [782]), and 59% (1128) of patients had other skeletal metastases in addition to the treated lesion(s). In general, the indications for surgery were the presence of a complete pathologic fracture or an impending pathologic fracture, defined as having a Mirels score of ≥ 9, in patients with an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification of less than or equal to IV and who were considered fit for surgery. The indications for radiotherapy were relief of pain, local tumor control, prevention of skeletal-related events, and any combination of the above. In all, 84% (1610) of the patients received palliative radiotherapy alone as local treatment for the target lesion(s), and 16% (310) underwent surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy. Neither METSSS nor SORG-MLA was used at the point of care to aid clinical decision-making during the treatment period. Survival was retrospectively estimated by these two models to test their potential for providing survival probabilities. We first compared SORG to METSSS in the entire population. Then, we repeated the comparison in patients who received local treatment with palliative radiation alone. We assessed model performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration analysis, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The AUROC measures discrimination, which is the ability to distinguish patients with the event of interest (such as death at a particular time point) from those without. AUROC typically ranges from 0.5 to 1.0, with 0.5 indicating random guessing and 1.0 a perfect prediction, and in general, an AUROC of ≥ 0.7 indicates adequate discrimination for clinical use. Calibration refers to the agreement between the predicted outcomes (in this case, survival probabilities) and the actual outcomes, with a perfect calibration curve having an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1. A positive intercept indicates that the actual survival is generally underestimated by the prediction model, and a negative intercept suggests the opposite (overestimation). When comparing models, an intercept closer to 0 typically indicates better calibration. Calibration can also be summarized as log(O:E), the logarithm scale of the ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) survivors. A log(O:E) > 0 signals an underestimation (the observed survival is greater than the predicted survival); and a log(O:E) < 0 indicates the opposite (the observed survival is lower than the predicted survival). A model with a log(O:E) closer to 0 is generally considered better calibrated. The Brier score is the mean squared difference between the model predictions and the observed outcomes, and it ranges from 0 (best prediction) to 1 (worst prediction). The Brier score captures both discrimination and calibration, and it is considered a measure of overall model performance. In Brier score analysis, the "null model" assigns a predicted probability equal to the prevalence of the outcome and represents a model that adds no new information. A prediction model should achieve a Brier score at least lower than the null-model Brier score to be considered as useful. The DCA was developed as a method to determine whether using a model to inform treatment decisions would do more good than harm. It plots the net benefit of making decisions based on the model's predictions across all possible risk thresholds (or cost-to-benefit ratios) in relation to the two default strategies of treating all or no patients. The care provider can decide on an acceptable risk threshold for the proposed treatment in an individual and assess the corresponding net benefit to determine whether consulting with the model is superior to adopting the default strategies. Finally, we examined whether laboratory data, which were not included in the METSSS model, would have been independently associated with survival after controlling for the METSSS model's predictions by using the multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Between the two models, only SORG-MLA achieved adequate discrimination (an AUROC of > 0.7) in the entire cohort (of patients treated operatively or with radiation alone) and in the subgroup of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy alone. SORG-MLA outperformed METSSS by a wide margin on discrimination, calibration, and Brier score analyses in not only the entire cohort but also the subgroup of patients whose local treatment consisted of radiotherapy alone. In both the entire cohort and the subgroup, DCA demonstrated that SORG-MLA provided more net benefit compared with the two default strategies (of treating all or no patients) and compared with METSSS when risk thresholds ranged from 0.2 to 0.9 at both 90 days and 1 year, indicating that using SORG-MLA as a decision-making aid was beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting for treatment was 0.2 to 0.9. Higher albumin, lower alkaline phosphatase, lower calcium, higher hemoglobin, lower international normalized ratio, higher lymphocytes, lower neutrophils, lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lower platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, higher sodium, and lower white blood cells were independently associated with better 1-year and overall survival after adjusting for the predictions made by METSSS. Based on these discoveries, clinicians might choose to consult SORG-MLA instead of METSSS for survival estimation in patients with long-bone metastases presenting for evaluation of local treatment. Basing a treatment decision on the predictions of SORG-MLA could be beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting to undergo a particular treatment strategy ranged from 0.2 to 0.9. Future studies might investigate relevant laboratory items when constructing or refining a survival estimation model because these data demonstrated prognostic value independent of the predictions of the METSSS model, and future studies might also seek to keep these models up to date using data from diverse, contemporary patients undergoing both modern operative and nonoperative treatments. Level III, diagnostic study.

Lee CC ，Chen CW ，Yen HK ，Lin YP ，Lai CY ，Wang JL ，Groot OQ ，Janssen SJ ，Schwab JH ，Hsu FM ，Lin WH ... -  《-》

Defining the optimum strategy for identifying adults and children with coeliac disease: systematic review and economic modelling.

Elwenspoek MM ，Thom H ，Sheppard AL ，Keeney E ，O'Donnell R ，Jackson J ，Roadevin C ，Dawson S ，Lane D ，Stubbs J ，Everitt H ，Watson JC ，Hay AD ，Gillett P ，Robins G ，Jones HE ，Mallett S ，Whiting PF ... -  《-》

Evaluation of Risk Factors, and Development and Validation of Prognostic Prediction Models for Distant Metastasis in Patients With Rectal Cancer: A Study Based on the SEER Database and a Chinese Population.

Zhang H ，Wang H ，Yao Y ，Liu L ，Feng F ，Li H ，Sun C ... -  《-》

Development and Validation of a Nomogram Based on DCE-MRI Radiomics for Predicting Hypoxia-Inducible Factor 1α Expression in Locally Advanced Rectal Cancer.

The expression levels of hypoxia-inducible factor 1 alpha (HIF-1α) have been identified as a pivotal marker, correlating with treatment response in patients with locally advanced rectal cancer (LARC). This study aimed to develop and validate a nomogram based on dynamic contrast-enhanced MRI (DCE-MRI) radiomics and clinical features for predicting the expression of HIF-1α in patients with LARC. A total of 102 patients diagnosed with locally advanced rectal cancer were divided into training (n = 71) and validation (n = 31) cohorts. The expression statuses of HIF-1α were histopathologically classified, categorizing patients into high and low expression groups. The intraclass correlation coefficient (ICC), minimum redundancy maximum relevance (mRMR), and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) were employed for feature selection to construct a radiomics signature and calculate the radiomics score (Rad-score). Univariate and multivariate analyses of clinical features and Rad-score were applied, and the clinical model and the nomogram were constructed. The predictive performance of the nomogram incorporating clinical features and Rad-score was assessed using Receiver Operating Characteristics (ROC) curves, decision curve analysis (DCA), and calibration curves. Seven radiomics features from DCE-MRI were used to build the radiomics signature. The nomogram incorporating CEA, Ki-67 and Rad-score had the highest AUC values in the training cohort and in the validation cohort (AUC: 0.918 and 0.920). Decision curve analysis showed that the nomogram outperformed the clinical model and radiomics signature in terms of clinical utility. In addition, the calibration curve for the nomogram demonstrated good agreement between prediction and actual observation. The nomogram based on DCE-MRI radiomics and clinical features showed favorable predictive efficacy and might be useful for preoperatively discriminating the expression of HIF-1α.

Li Z ，Huang H ，Zhao Z ，Ma W ，Mao H ，Liu F ，Yang Y ，Wang D ，Lu Z ... -  《-》