Antibiotic prescription sources and use among under-5 children with fever/cough in sub-Saharan Africa.
Childhood febrile illness is among the leading causes of hospital admission for children <5 y of age in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA). Antibiotics have played a pivotal role in enhancing health outcomes, especially for children <5 y of age. Antibiotics prescription pattern evidence exists for SSA, however, prescription sources (either from qualified or unqualified sources) and use among children with fever or cough have not been explored. Thus the present study assessed antibiotic prescription sources and use among children <5 y of age with fever and cough in SSA.
We used Demographic and Health Survey data from 37 countries with a total of 18 866 children <5 y of age who had fever/cough. The surveys span from 2006 to 2021. The dependent variable was antibiotics taken for fever/cough based on prescriptions from qualified sources. The data were weighted using sampling weight, primary sampling unit and strata. A mixed-effects logistic regression model (both fixed and random effects) was fitted since the outcome variable was binary. Model comparison was made based on deviance (-2 log likelihood) and likelihood ratio tests were used for model comparison. Variables with p≤0.2 in the bivariable analysis were considered for the multivariable mixed-effects binary logistic regression model. In the final model, the adjusted odds ratio (AOR) with a 95% confidence interval (CI) and p<0.05 in the multivariable model were used to declare a significant association with taking antibiotics for fever/cough prescribed from qualified sources.
The percentage of unqualified antibiotic prescriptions among children <5 y of age who had a fever/cough and took antibiotics was 67.19% (95% CI 66.51 to 67.85), ranging from 40.34% in Chad to 92.67% in Sao Tome. The odds of taking antibiotics prescribed from unqualified sources for fever/cough among children <5 y of age living in rural areas were 1.23 times higher (AOR 1.23 [95% CI 1.13 to 1.33]) compared with urban children. The odds of taking antibiotics prescribed from qualified sources for fever/cough among children <5 y of age whose mothers had primary, secondary and higher education decreased by 14% (AOR=0.86 [95% CI 0.79 to 0.93]), 21% (AOR 0.79 [95% CI 0.72 to 0.86]) and 21% (AOR 0.79 [95% CI 0.65 to 0.95]) compared with those whose mother had no formal education, respectively.
The study showed that the majority of the children who received antibiotics obtained them from unqualified sources in the 37 SSA countries. Our findings underscore the significance of addressing healthcare disparities, improving access to qualified healthcare providers, promoting maternal education and empowering mothers in healthcare decision-making to ensure appropriate antibiotic use in this vulnerable population. Further research and interventions targeted at these factors are warranted to optimize antibiotic prescribing practices and promote responsible antibiotic use in the management of fever and cough in children <5 y of age.
Tesema GA
，Biney GK
，Wang VQ
，Ameyaw EK
，Yaya S
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Care-seeking for difficulties conceiving in sub-Saharan Africa: findings from population-based surveys in eight geographies.
What is the nature of women's care-seeking for difficulties conceiving in sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), including the correlates of seeking biomedical infertility care at a health facility?
Care-seeking for difficulties getting pregnant was low, much of which involved traditional or religious sources of care, with evidence of sociodemographic disparities in receipt of biomedical care.
Nearly all research on infertility care-seeking patterns in SSA is limited to clinic-based studies among the minority of people in these settings who obtain facility-based services. In the absence of population-based data on infertility care-seeking, we are unable to determine the demand for services and disparities in the use of more effective biomedical sources of care.
We used cross-sectional, population-based data from the Performance Monitoring for Action (PMA) female survey in eight geographies in SSA, including nationally representative data from Burkina Faso, Côte d'Ivoire, Kenya, and Uganda and regionally representative data from two provinces in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) (Kinshasa and Kongo Central) and two states in Nigeria (Kano and Lagos). We employed a multi-stage cluster random sampling design with probability proportional to size selection of clusters within each geography to produce representative samples of women aged 15-49. Samples ranged from 1144 in Kano, Nigeria, to 9489 in Kenya. PMA collected these data between November 2021 and December 2022.
We restricted the sample to women who had ever had sex, with analytic samples ranging from 854 in Kano to 8,059 in Kenya, then conducted descriptive and bivariable analyses to examine characteristics of those who sought care for difficulties getting pregnant. Among those who reported seeking care, we conducted bivariable and multivariable logistic regression analyses to determine factors associated with receipt of biomedical services from a health facility. All analyses were conducted separately by geography.
Our study found low levels of care-seeking for difficulties getting pregnant among sexually active women in eight geographies in SSA, ranging from 3.7% (Kenya) to 15.3% (Côte d'Ivoire). Of this, 51.8% (Burkina Faso) to 86.7% (Kinshasa) involved receipt of biomedical services in health facilities. While many factors were consistently associated with infertility care-seeking from any source across geographies, factors associated with receipt of biomedical care specifically were less pronounced. This may be a result of the highly limited sources of infertility services in SSA; thus, even privileged groups may struggle to obtain effective treatment for difficulties getting pregnant. However, we did observe disparities in biomedical care-seeking in our bivariable results in several geographies, with the wealthiest women, those with more education, and those residing in urban areas generally more likely to have sought biomedical care for difficulties getting pregnant.
Our data lacked details on the nature of the services received and outcomes, and we do not have information on reasons why women chose the sources they did. Small samples of women who sought care limited our power to detect significant differences in care-seeking by women's characteristics in several geographies.
Infertility and access to appropriate treatment are issues of reproductive health and human rights. While our results do not indicate to what extent use of non-biomedical sources of care is driven by preferences, cost, or lack of accessible services, it is clear from our results and existing literature that more needs to be done to ensure access to affordable, quality, cost-effective infertility services in SSA.
This study was supported by grants from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation (INV009639) and the National Institute of Child Health and Human Development (K01HD107172). The funders were not involved in the study design, analyses, manuscript writing, or the decision to publish. The authors have no conflicts of interest to declare.
N/A.
Bell SO
，Larson E
，Bittle D
，Moreau C
，Omoluabi E
，OlaOlorun FM
，Akilimali P
，Kibira SPS
，Makumbi F
，Guiella G
，Mosso R
，Gichangi P
，Anglewicz P
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Comparison of Two Modern Survival Prediction Tools, SORG-MLA and METSSS, in Patients With Symptomatic Long-bone Metastases Who Underwent Local Treatment With Surgery Followed by Radiotherapy and With Radiotherapy Alone.
Survival estimation for patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases ideally should be made before a type of local treatment has already been determined. Currently available survival prediction tools, however, were generated using data from patients treated either operatively or with local radiation alone, raising concerns about whether they would generalize well to all patients presenting for assessment. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine-learning algorithm (SORG-MLA), trained with institution-based data of surgically treated patients, and the Metastases location, Elderly, Tumor primary, Sex, Sickness/comorbidity, and Site of radiotherapy model (METSSS), trained with registry-based data of patients treated with radiotherapy alone, are two of the most recently developed survival prediction models, but they have not been tested on patients whose local treatment strategy is not yet decided.
(1) Which of these two survival prediction models performed better in a mixed cohort made up both of patients who received local treatment with surgery followed by radiotherapy and who had radiation alone for symptomatic bone metastases? (2) Which model performed better among patients whose local treatment consisted of only palliative radiotherapy? (3) Are laboratory values used by SORG-MLA, which are not included in METSSS, independently associated with survival after controlling for predictions made by METSSS?
Between 2010 and 2018, we provided local treatment for 2113 adult patients with skeletal metastases in the extremities at an urban tertiary referral academic medical center using one of two strategies: (1) surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy or (2) palliative radiotherapy alone. Every patient's survivorship status was ascertained either by their medical records or the national death registry from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Administration. After applying a priori designated exclusion criteria, 91% (1920) were analyzed here. Among them, 48% (920) of the patients were female, and the median (IQR) age was 62 years (53 to 70 years). Lung was the most common primary tumor site (41% [782]), and 59% (1128) of patients had other skeletal metastases in addition to the treated lesion(s). In general, the indications for surgery were the presence of a complete pathologic fracture or an impending pathologic fracture, defined as having a Mirels score of ≥ 9, in patients with an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification of less than or equal to IV and who were considered fit for surgery. The indications for radiotherapy were relief of pain, local tumor control, prevention of skeletal-related events, and any combination of the above. In all, 84% (1610) of the patients received palliative radiotherapy alone as local treatment for the target lesion(s), and 16% (310) underwent surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy. Neither METSSS nor SORG-MLA was used at the point of care to aid clinical decision-making during the treatment period. Survival was retrospectively estimated by these two models to test their potential for providing survival probabilities. We first compared SORG to METSSS in the entire population. Then, we repeated the comparison in patients who received local treatment with palliative radiation alone. We assessed model performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration analysis, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The AUROC measures discrimination, which is the ability to distinguish patients with the event of interest (such as death at a particular time point) from those without. AUROC typically ranges from 0.5 to 1.0, with 0.5 indicating random guessing and 1.0 a perfect prediction, and in general, an AUROC of ≥ 0.7 indicates adequate discrimination for clinical use. Calibration refers to the agreement between the predicted outcomes (in this case, survival probabilities) and the actual outcomes, with a perfect calibration curve having an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1. A positive intercept indicates that the actual survival is generally underestimated by the prediction model, and a negative intercept suggests the opposite (overestimation). When comparing models, an intercept closer to 0 typically indicates better calibration. Calibration can also be summarized as log(O:E), the logarithm scale of the ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) survivors. A log(O:E) > 0 signals an underestimation (the observed survival is greater than the predicted survival); and a log(O:E) < 0 indicates the opposite (the observed survival is lower than the predicted survival). A model with a log(O:E) closer to 0 is generally considered better calibrated. The Brier score is the mean squared difference between the model predictions and the observed outcomes, and it ranges from 0 (best prediction) to 1 (worst prediction). The Brier score captures both discrimination and calibration, and it is considered a measure of overall model performance. In Brier score analysis, the "null model" assigns a predicted probability equal to the prevalence of the outcome and represents a model that adds no new information. A prediction model should achieve a Brier score at least lower than the null-model Brier score to be considered as useful. The DCA was developed as a method to determine whether using a model to inform treatment decisions would do more good than harm. It plots the net benefit of making decisions based on the model's predictions across all possible risk thresholds (or cost-to-benefit ratios) in relation to the two default strategies of treating all or no patients. The care provider can decide on an acceptable risk threshold for the proposed treatment in an individual and assess the corresponding net benefit to determine whether consulting with the model is superior to adopting the default strategies. Finally, we examined whether laboratory data, which were not included in the METSSS model, would have been independently associated with survival after controlling for the METSSS model's predictions by using the multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses.
Between the two models, only SORG-MLA achieved adequate discrimination (an AUROC of > 0.7) in the entire cohort (of patients treated operatively or with radiation alone) and in the subgroup of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy alone. SORG-MLA outperformed METSSS by a wide margin on discrimination, calibration, and Brier score analyses in not only the entire cohort but also the subgroup of patients whose local treatment consisted of radiotherapy alone. In both the entire cohort and the subgroup, DCA demonstrated that SORG-MLA provided more net benefit compared with the two default strategies (of treating all or no patients) and compared with METSSS when risk thresholds ranged from 0.2 to 0.9 at both 90 days and 1 year, indicating that using SORG-MLA as a decision-making aid was beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting for treatment was 0.2 to 0.9. Higher albumin, lower alkaline phosphatase, lower calcium, higher hemoglobin, lower international normalized ratio, higher lymphocytes, lower neutrophils, lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lower platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, higher sodium, and lower white blood cells were independently associated with better 1-year and overall survival after adjusting for the predictions made by METSSS.
Based on these discoveries, clinicians might choose to consult SORG-MLA instead of METSSS for survival estimation in patients with long-bone metastases presenting for evaluation of local treatment. Basing a treatment decision on the predictions of SORG-MLA could be beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting to undergo a particular treatment strategy ranged from 0.2 to 0.9. Future studies might investigate relevant laboratory items when constructing or refining a survival estimation model because these data demonstrated prognostic value independent of the predictions of the METSSS model, and future studies might also seek to keep these models up to date using data from diverse, contemporary patients undergoing both modern operative and nonoperative treatments.
Level III, diagnostic study.
Lee CC
，Chen CW
，Yen HK
，Lin YP
，Lai CY
，Wang JL
，Groot OQ
，Janssen SJ
，Schwab JH
，Hsu FM
，Lin WH
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ResearchGate
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钛学术
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