Polygenic risk scores for the prediction of common cancers in East Asians: A population-based prospective cohort study.

To evaluate the utility of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) in identifying high-risk individuals, different publicly available PRSs for breast (n=85), prostate (n=37), colorectal (n=22), and lung cancers (n=11) were examined in a prospective study of 21,694 Chinese adults. We constructed PRS using weights curated in the online PGS Catalog. PRS performance was evaluated by distribution, discrimination, predictive ability, and calibration. Hazard ratios (HR) and corresponding confidence intervals (CI) of the common cancers after 20 years of follow-up were estimated using Cox proportional hazard models for different levels of PRS. A total of 495 breast, 308 prostate, 332 female-colorectal, 409 male-colorectal, 181 female-lung, and 381 male-lung incident cancers were identified. The area under receiver operating characteristic curve for the best-performing site-specific PRS were 0.61 (PGS000873, breast), 0.70 (PGS00662, prostate), 0.65 (PGS000055, female-colorectal), 0.60 (PGS000734, male-colorectal), 0.56 (PGS000721, female-lung), and 0.58 (PGS000070, male-lung), respectively. Compared to the middle quintile, individuals in the highest cancer-specific PRS quintile were 64% more likely to develop cancers of the breast, prostate, and colorectal. For lung cancer, the lowest cancer-specific PRS quintile was associated with 28-34% decreased risk compared to the middle quintile. In contrast, the HR observed for quintiles 4 (female-lung: 0.95 [0.61-1.47]; male-lung: 1.14 [0.82-1.57]) and 5 (female-lung: 0.95 [0.61-1.47]) were not significantly different from that for the middle quintile. Site-specific PRSs can stratify the risk of developing breast, prostate, and colorectal cancers in this East Asian population. Appropriate correction factors may be required to improve calibration. This work is supported by the National Research Foundation Singapore (NRF-NRFF2017-02), PRECISION Health Research, Singapore (PRECISE) and the Agency for Science, Technology and Research (A*STAR). WP Koh was supported by National Medical Research Council, Singapore (NMRC/CSA/0055/2013). CC Khor was supported by National Research Foundation Singapore (NRF-NRFI2018-01). Rajkumar Dorajoo received a grant from the Agency for Science, Technology and Research Career Development Award (A*STAR CDA - 202D8090), and from Ministry of Health Healthy Longevity Catalyst Award (HLCA20Jan-0022).The Singapore Chinese Health Study was supported by grants from the National Medical Research Council, Singapore (NMRC/CIRG/1456/2016) and the U.S. National Institutes of Health (NIH) (R01 CA144034 and UM1 CA182876).

Ho PJ ，Tan IB ，Chong DQ ，Khor CC ，Yuan JM ，Koh WP ，Dorajoo R ，Li J ... -  《eLife》

Development and validation of genome-wide polygenic risk scores for predicting breast cancer incidence in Japanese females: a population-based case-cohort study.

This study aimed to develop an ancestry-specific polygenic risk scores (PRSs) for the prediction of breast cancer events in Japanese females and validate it in a longitudinal cohort study. Using publicly available summary statistics of female breast cancer genome-wide association study (GWAS) of Japanese and European ancestries, we, respectively, developed 31 candidate genome-wide PRSs using pruning and thresholding (P + T) and LDpred methods with varying parameters. Among the candidate PRS models, the best model was selected using a case-cohort dataset (63 breast cancer cases and 2213 sub-cohorts of Japanese females during a median follow-up of 11.9 years) according to the maximal predictive ability by Harrell's C-statistics. The best-performing PRS for each derivation GWAS was evaluated in another independent case-cohort dataset (260 breast cancer cases and 7845 sub-cohorts of Japanese females during a median follow-up of 16.9 years). For the best PRS model involving 46,861 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs; P + T method with PT = 0.05 and R2 = 0.2) derived from Japanese-ancestry GWAS, the Harrell's C-statistic was 0.598 ± 0.018 in the evaluation dataset. The age-adjusted hazard ratio for breast cancer in females with the highest PRS quintile compared with those in the lowest PRS quintile was 2.47 (95% confidence intervals, 1.64-3.70). The PRS constructed using Japanese-ancestry GWAS demonstrated better predictive performance for breast cancer in Japanese females than that using European-ancestry GWAS (Harrell's C-statistics 0.598 versus 0.586). This study developed a breast cancer PRS for Japanese females and demonstrated the usefulness of the PRS for breast cancer risk stratification.

Ohbe H ，Hachiya T ，Yamaji T ，Nakano S ，Miyamoto Y ，Sutoh Y ，Otsuka-Yamasaki Y ，Shimizu A ，Yasunaga H ，Sawada N ，Inoue M ，Tsugane S ，Iwasaki M ，Japan Public Health Center-based Prospective Study Group ... -  《-》

Risk assessment for colorectal cancer via polygenic risk score and lifestyle exposure: a large-scale association study of East Asian and European populations.

The genetic architectures of colorectal cancer are distinct across different populations. To date, the majority of polygenic risk scores (PRSs) are derived from European (EUR) populations, which limits their accurate extrapolation to other populations. Here, we aimed to generate a PRS by incorporating East Asian (EAS) and EUR ancestry groups and validate its utility for colorectal cancer risk assessment among different populations. A large-scale colorectal cancer genome-wide association study (GWAS), harboring 35,145 cases and 288,934 controls from EAS and EUR populations, was used for the EAS-EUR GWAS meta-analysis and the construction of candidate EAS-EUR PRSs via different approaches. The performance of each PRS was then validated in external GWAS datasets of EAS (727 cases and 1452 controls) and EUR (1289 cases and 1284 controls) ancestries, respectively. The optimal PRS was further tested using the UK Biobank longitudinal cohort of 355,543 individuals and ultimately applied to stratify individual risk attached by healthy lifestyle. In the meta-analysis across EAS and EUR populations, we identified 48 independent variants beyond genome-wide significance (P < 5 × 10-8) at previously reported loci. Among 26 candidate EAS-EUR PRSs, the PRS-CSx approach-derived PRS (defined as PRSCSx) that harbored genome-wide variants achieved the optimal discriminatory ability in both validation datasets, as well as better performance in the EAS population compared to the PRS derived from known variants. Using the UK Biobank cohort, we further validated a significant dose-response effect of PRSCSx on incident colorectal cancer, in which the risk was 2.11- and 3.88-fold higher in individuals with intermediate and high PRSCSx than in the low score subgroup (Ptrend = 8.15 × 10-53). Notably, the detrimental effect of being at a high genetic risk could be largely attenuated by adherence to a favorable lifestyle, with a 0.53% reduction in 5-year absolute risk. In summary, we systemically constructed an EAS-EUR PRS to effectively stratify colorectal cancer risk, which highlighted its clinical implication among diverse ancestries. Importantly, these findings also supported that a healthy lifestyle could reduce the genetic impact on incident colorectal cancer.

Xin J ，Du M ，Gu D ，Jiang K ，Wang M ，Jin M ，Hu Y ，Ben S ，Chen S ，Shao W ，Li S ，Chu H ，Zhu L ，Li C ，Chen K ，Ding K ，Zhang Z ，Shen H ，Wang M ... -  《Genome Medicine》

Utility of polygenic risk scores in UK cancer screening: a modelling analysis.

It is proposed that, through restriction to individuals delineated as high risk, polygenic risk scores (PRSs) might enable more efficient targeting of existing cancer screening programmes and enable extension into new age ranges and disease types. To address this proposition, we present an overview of the performance of PRS tools (ie, models and sets of single nucleotide polymorphisms) alongside harms and benefits of PRS-stratified cancer screening for eight example cancers (breast, prostate, colorectal, pancreas, ovary, kidney, lung, and testicular cancer). For this modelling analysis, we used age-stratified cancer incidences for the UK population from the National Cancer Registration Dataset (2016-18) and published estimates of the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve for current, future, and optimised PRS for each of the eight cancer types. For each of five PRS-defined high-risk quantiles (ie, the top 50%, 20%, 10%, 5%, and 1%) and according to each of the three PRS tools (ie, current, future, and optimised) for the eight cancers, we calculated the relative proportion of cancers arising, the odds ratios of a cancer arising compared with the UK population average, and the lifetime cancer risk. We examined maximal attainable rates of cancer detection by age stratum from combining PRS-based stratification with cancer screening tools and modelled the maximal impact on cancer-specific survival of hypothetical new UK programmes of PRS-stratified screening. The PRS-defined high-risk quintile (20%) of the population was estimated to capture 37% of breast cancer cases, 46% of prostate cancer cases, 34% of colorectal cancer cases, 29% of pancreatic cancer cases, 26% of ovarian cancer cases, 22% of renal cancer cases, 26% of lung cancer cases, and 47% of testicular cancer cases. Extending UK screening programmes to a PRS-defined high-risk quintile including people aged 40-49 years for breast cancer, 50-59 years for colorectal cancer, and 60-69 years for prostate cancer has the potential to avert, respectively, a maximum of 102, 188, and 158 deaths annually. Unstratified screening of the full population aged 48-49 years for breast cancer, 58-59 years for colorectal cancer, and 68-69 years for prostate cancer would use equivalent resources and avert, respectively, an estimated maximum of 80, 155, and 95 deaths annually. These maximal modelled numbers will be substantially attenuated by incomplete population uptake of PRS profiling and cancer screening, interval cancers, non-European ancestry, and other factors. Under favourable assumptions, our modelling suggests modest potential efficiency gain in cancer case detection and deaths averted for hypothetical new PRS-stratified screening programmes for breast, prostate, and colorectal cancer. Restriction of screening to high-risk quantiles means many or most incident cancers will arise in those assigned as being low-risk. To quantify real-world clinical impact, costs, and harms, UK-specific cluster-randomised trials are required. The Wellcome Trust.

Huntley C ，Torr B ，Sud A ，Rowlands CF ，Way R ，Snape K ，Hanson H ，Swanton C ，Broggio J ，Lucassen A ，McCartney M ，Houlston RS ，Hingorani AD ，Jones ME ，Turnbull C ... -  《-》

Interaction between cigarette smoking and genetic polymorphisms on the associations with age of natural menopause and reproductive lifespan: the Singapore Chinese Health Study.

Are there genetic variants that interact with smoking to reduce reproductive lifespan in East-Asian women? Our study corroborates several recently identified genetic loci associated with reproductive lifespan and highlights specific genetic predispositions that may interact with smoking status to adversely affect reproductive lifespan in East-Asian women. Epidemiological data as well as evaluations on genetic predisposition to smoke indicate on the importance of smoking in adverse effects on reproductive lifespan in women. However, there are no previous smoking and gene interaction studies for reproductive traits in East-Asian women. This population-based prospective cohort study comprised 11 643 East-Asian Chinese women with overlapping genome-wide genotyping and reproductive data. We performed a genome-wide association study for reproductive lifespan in women (n = 11 643) from the Singapore Chinese Health Study (SCHS) and carried out a genome-wide interaction study to identify loci that interacted with smoking status to affect age of natural menopause and reproductive-time. Two known loci associated with menopause, rs113430717 (near HMCES, chromosome 3, Pmeta = 5.72 × 10-15) and rs3020136 (near RAD21, chromosome 8, Pmeta = 1.38 × 10-8) were observed beyond genome-wide levels of association with age at menopause in this study. For reproductive lifespan, the genome-wide association observed at rs79784106 (chromosome 3, Pmeta = 5.05 × 10-12) was in linkage disequilibrium with the menopause lead single-nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) (rs113430717). Four additional loci, first reported to be associated with menopause, were also associated with reproductive lifespan in our study (PAdj between 7.42 × 10-5 to 4.51 × 10-3). A significant interaction was observed between smoking and an East-Asian specific SNP, rs140146885, for reduced reproductive lifespan, per copy of the minor C allele (beta = -1.417 years, Pinteraction = 2.31 × 10-10). This interaction was successfully replicated in additional independent samples (beta = -1.389 years, Pinteraction = 6.78 × 10-3). Another known variant associated with menopause, rs11031006 (near FSHB), was also observed to interact with smoking status to reduce age at menopause in our dataset (beta = -0.450 years, Padj = 0.042). The modest sample size of the replication datasets used likely affected the statistical power to firmly replicate all identified novel loci observed in our smoking interaction analyses. Age of natural menopause and reproductive lifespan have clear genetic predispositions with distinct ethnic differences, and they may be adversely truncated by lifestyle factors such as smoking, which can pose a significant impact on the reproductive lifespan and future health outcomes in women. The Singapore Chinese Health Study is funded by the National Medical Research Council, Singapore (NMRC/CIRG/1456/2016), National Institutes of Health (R01 CA144034 and UM1 CA182876) and National Research Foundation, Singapore (Project Number 370062002). W.-P.K. is supported by the National Medical Research Council, Singapore (MOH-CSASI19nov-0001). The corresponding author had full access to all the data in the study and had final responsibility for the decision to submit for publication. The authors do not report conflicts of interest. N/A.

Huang Z ，Chang X ，Wang L ，Liu J ，Heng CK ，Khor CC ，Yuan JM ，Koh WP ，Dorajoo R ... -  《-》