Predictive nomogram model for major adverse kidney events within 30 days in sepsis patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus.

In sepsis patients, Type 2 Diabetes Mellitus (T2DM) was associated with an increased risk of kidney injury. Furthermore, kidney damage is among the dangerous complications, with a high mortality rate in sepsis patients. However, the underlying predictive model on the prediction of major adverse kidney events within 30 days (MAKE30) in sepsis patients with T2DM has not been reported by any study. A total of 406 sepsis patients with T2DM were retrospectively enrolled and divided into a non-MAKE30 group (261 cases) and a MAKE30 group (145 cases). In sepsis patients with T2DM, univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were conducted to identify independent predictors of MAKE30. Based on the findings of multivariate logistic regression analysis, the corresponding nomogram was constructed. The nomogram was evaluated using the calibration curve, Receiver Operating Characteristic (ROC) curve, and decision curve analysis. A composite of death, new Renal Replacement Therapy (RRT), or Persistent Renal Dysfunction (PRD) comprised MAKE30. Finally, subgroup analyses of the nomogram for 30-day mortality, new RRT, and PRD were performed. In sepsis patients with T2DM, Mean Arterial Pressure (MAP), Platelet (PLT), cystatin C, High-Density Lipoprotein (HDL), and apolipoprotein E (apoE) were independent predictors for MAKE30. According to the ROC curve, calibration curve, and decision curve analysis, the nomogram model based on those predictors had satisfactory discrimination (AUC = 0.916), good calibration, and clinical application. Additionally, in sepsis patients with T2DM, the nomogram model exhibited a high ability to predict the occurrence of 30-day mortality (AUC = 0.822), new RRT (AUC = 0.874), and PRD (AUC = 0.801). The nomogram model, which is available within 24 hours after admission, had a robust and accurate assessment for the MAKE30 occurrence, and it provided information to better manage sepsis patients with T2DM.

Xin Q ，Xie T ，Chen R ，Wang H ，Zhang X ，Wang S ，Liu C ，Zhang J ... -  《Frontiers in Endocrinology》

An early warning model for predicting major adverse kidney events within 30 days in sepsis patients.

Yu X ，Xin Q ，Hao Y ，Zhang J ，Ma T ... -  《Frontiers in Medicine》

Construction and validation of an early warning model for predicting the acute kidney injury in elderly patients with sepsis.

Sepsis-induced acute kidney injury (S-AKI) is a significant complication and is associated with an increased risk of mortality, especially in elderly patients with sepsis. However, there are no reliable and robust predictive models to identify high-risk patients likely to develop S-AKI. We aimed to develop a nomogram to predict S-AKI in elderly sepsis patients and help physicians make personalized management within 24 h of admission. A total of 849 elderly sepsis patients from the First Affiliated Hospital of Xi'an Jiaotong University were identified and randomly divided into a training set (75%, n = 637) and a validation set (25%, n = 212). Univariate and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the independent predictors of S-AKI. The corresponding nomogram was constructed based on those predictors. The calibration curve, receiver operating characteristics (ROC)curve, and decision curve analysis were performed to evaluate the nomogram. The secondary outcome was 30-day mortality and major adverse kidney events within 30 days (MAKE30). MAKE30 were a composite of death, new renal replacement therapy (RRT), or persistent renal dysfunction (PRD). The independent predictors for nomogram construction were mean arterial pressure (MAP), serum procalcitonin (PCT), and platelet (PLT), prothrombin time activity (PTA), albumin globulin ratio (AGR), and creatinine (Cr). The predictive model had satisfactory discrimination with an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.852-0.858 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively. The nomogram showed good calibration and clinical application according to the calibration curve and decision curve analysis. Furthermore, the prediction model had perfect predictive power for predicting 30-day mortality (AUC = 0.813) and MAKE30 (AUC = 0.823) in elderly sepsis patients. The proposed nomogram can quickly and effectively predict S-AKI risk in elderly sepsis patients within 24 h after admission, providing information for clinicians to make personalized interventions.

Xin Q ，Xie T ，Chen R ，Wang H ，Zhang X ，Wang S ，Liu C ，Zhang J ... -  《-》

A Predictive Model Based on Inflammatory and Coagulation Indicators for Sepsis-Induced Acute Kidney Injury.

Sepsis-induced acute kidney injury (S-AKI) is associated with systemic inflammatory responses and coagulation system dysfunction, and it is associated with an increased risk of mortality. However, there was no study to explore the predictive value of inflammatory and coagulation indicators for S-AKI. In this retrospective study, 1051 sepsis patients were identified and divided into a training cohort (75%, n = 787) and a validation cohort (25%, n = 264) in chronological order according to the date they were admitted. Univariate analyses and multivariate logistic regression analyses were performed to identify the independent predictors of S-AKI. The logistic regression analyses (enter methods) were used to conducted the prediction models. The ROC curves were used to determine the predictive value of the constructed models on S-AKI. To test whether the increase in the AUC is significant, we used a two-sided test for ROC curves available online (http://vassarstats.net/roc_comp.html). The secondary outcome was different AKI stages and major adverse kidney events within 30 days (MAKE30). Stage 3B of S-AKI was defined as both meeting the stage 3 criteria [increase of Cr level by > 300% (≥ 4.0 mg/dL with an acute increase of ≥ 0.5 mg/dL) and/or UO < 0.3 mL/kg/h for > 24 h or anuria for > 12 h and/or acute kidney replacement therapy] and having cystatin C positive. MAKE30 were a composite of death, new renal replacement therapy (RRT), or persistent renal dysfunction (PRD). We discovered that cardiovascular disease, white blood cell (WBC), mean arterial pressure (MAP), platelet (PLT), serum procalcitonin (PCT), prothrombin time activity (PTA), and thrombin time (TT) were independent predictors for S-AKI. The predictive value (AUC = 0.855) of the simplest model 3 (constructed with PLT, PCT, and PTA), with a sensitivity of 77.6% and a specificity of 82.4%, had a similar predictive value comparing with the model 1 (AUC = 0.872) and the model 2 (AUC = 0.864) in the training cohort (P > 0.05). Compared with the model 1 (AUC = 0.888) and the model 2 (AUC = 0.887), the model 3 (AUC = 0.887) had a similar predictive value in the validation cohort. Moreover, model 3 had the best predictive power for predicting S-AKI in the stage 3 (AUC = 0.777), especially in stage 3B (AUC = 0.771). Finally, the model 3 (AUC = 0.843) had perfect predictive power for predicting MAKE30 in sepsis patients. Within 24 hours after admission, the simplest model 3 (constructed with PLT, PCT, and PTA) might be a robust predictor of the S-AKI in sepsis patients, providing information for timely and efficient intervention.

Xin Q ，Xie T ，Chen R ，Zhang X ，Tong Y ，Wang H ，Wang S ，Liu C ，Zhang J ... -  《-》

[Analysis of risk factors of major adverse kidney events within 30 days in patients with acute pancreatitis].

Gao L ，Xu Y ，Fei W ，Zhang L ，Xu C ... -  《-》