Contact Tracing Assessment of COVID-19 Transmission Dynamics in Taiwan and Risk at Different Exposure Periods Before and After Symptom Onset.

Cheng HY ，Jian SW ，Liu DP ，Ng TC ，Huang WT ，Lin HH ，Taiwan COVID-19 Outbreak Investigation Team ... -  《-》

Household secondary attack rate of COVID-19 and associated determinants in Guangzhou, China: a retrospective cohort study.

As of June 8, 2020, the global reported number of COVID-19 cases had reached more than 7 million with over 400 000 deaths. The household transmissibility of the causative pathogen, severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), remains unclear. We aimed to estimate the secondary attack rate of SARS-CoV-2 among household and non-household close contacts in Guangzhou, China, using a statistical transmission model. In this retrospective cohort study, we used a comprehensive contact tracing dataset from the Guangzhou Center for Disease Control and Prevention to estimate the secondary attack rate of COVID-19 (defined as the probability that an infected individual will transmit the disease to a susceptible individual) among household and non-household contacts, using a statistical transmission model. We considered two alternative definitions of household contacts in the analysis: individuals who were either family members or close relatives, such as parents and parents-in-law, regardless of residential address, and individuals living at the same address regardless of relationship. We assessed the demographic determinants of transmissibility and the infectivity of COVID-19 cases during their incubation period. Between Jan 7, 2020, and Feb 18, 2020, we traced 195 unrelated close contact groups (215 primary cases, 134 secondary or tertiary cases, and 1964 uninfected close contacts). By identifying households from these groups, assuming a mean incubation period of 5 days, a maximum infectious period of 13 days, and no case isolation, the estimated secondary attack rate among household contacts was 12·4% (95% CI 9·8-15·4) when household contacts were defined on the basis of close relatives and 17·1% (13·3-21·8) when household contacts were defined on the basis of residential address. Compared with the oldest age group (≥60 years), the risk of household infection was lower in the youngest age group (<20 years; odds ratio [OR] 0·23 [95% CI 0·11-0·46]) and among adults aged 20-59 years (OR 0·64 [95% CI 0·43-0·97]). Our results suggest greater infectivity during the incubation period than during the symptomatic period, although differences were not statistically significant (OR 0·61 [95% CI 0·27-1·38]). The estimated local reproductive number (R) based on observed contact frequencies of primary cases was 0·5 (95% CI 0·41-0·62) in Guangzhou. The projected local R, had there been no isolation of cases or quarantine of their contacts, was 0·6 (95% CI 0·49-0·74) when household was defined on the basis of close relatives. SARS-CoV-2 is more transmissible in households than SARS-CoV and Middle East respiratory syndrome coronavirus. Older individuals (aged ≥60 years) are the most susceptible to household transmission of SARS-CoV-2. In addition to case finding and isolation, timely tracing and quarantine of close contacts should be implemented to prevent onward transmission during the viral incubation period. US National Institutes of Health, Science and Technology Plan Project of Guangzhou, Project for Key Medicine Discipline Construction of Guangzhou Municipality, Key Research and Development Program of China.

Jing QL ，Liu MJ ，Zhang ZB ，Fang LQ ，Yuan J ，Zhang AR ，Dean NE ，Luo L ，Ma MM ，Longini I ，Kenah E ，Lu Y ，Ma Y ，Jalali N ，Yang ZC ，Yang Y ... -  《-》

Epidemiology and transmission of COVID-19 in 391 cases and 1286 of their close contacts in Shenzhen, China: a retrospective cohort study.

Rapid spread of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) in Wuhan, China, prompted heightened surveillance in Shenzhen, China. The resulting data provide a rare opportunity to measure key metrics of disease course, transmission, and the impact of control measures. From Jan 14 to Feb 12, 2020, the Shenzhen Center for Disease Control and Prevention identified 391 SARS-CoV-2 cases and 1286 close contacts. We compared cases identified through symptomatic surveillance and contact tracing, and estimated the time from symptom onset to confirmation, isolation, and admission to hospital. We estimated metrics of disease transmission and analysed factors influencing transmission risk. Cases were older than the general population (mean age 45 years) and balanced between males (n=187) and females (n=204). 356 (91%) of 391 cases had mild or moderate clinical severity at initial assessment. As of Feb 22, 2020, three cases had died and 225 had recovered (median time to recovery 21 days; 95% CI 20-22). Cases were isolated on average 4·6 days (95% CI 4·1-5·0) after developing symptoms; contact tracing reduced this by 1·9 days (95% CI 1·1-2·7). Household contacts and those travelling with a case were at higher risk of infection (odds ratio 6·27 [95% CI 1·49-26·33] for household contacts and 7·06 [1·43-34·91] for those travelling with a case) than other close contacts. The household secondary attack rate was 11·2% (95% CI 9·1-13·8), and children were as likely to be infected as adults (infection rate 7·4% in children <10 years vs population average of 6·6%). The observed reproductive number (R) was 0·4 (95% CI 0·3-0·5), with a mean serial interval of 6·3 days (95% CI 5·2-7·6). Our data on cases as well as their infected and uninfected close contacts provide key insights into the epidemiology of SARS-CoV-2. This analysis shows that isolation and contact tracing reduce the time during which cases are infectious in the community, thereby reducing the R. The overall impact of isolation and contact tracing, however, is uncertain and highly dependent on the number of asymptomatic cases. Moreover, children are at a similar risk of infection to the general population, although less likely to have severe symptoms; hence they should be considered in analyses of transmission and control. Emergency Response Program of Harbin Institute of Technology, Emergency Response Program of Peng Cheng Laboratory, US Centers for Disease Control and Prevention.

Bi Q ，Wu Y ，Mei S ，Ye C ，Zou X ，Zhang Z ，Liu X ，Wei L ，Truelove SA ，Zhang T ，Gao W ，Cheng C ，Tang X ，Wu X ，Wu Y ，Sun B ，Huang S ，Sun Y ，Zhang J ，Ma T ，Lessler J ，Feng T ... -  《-》

Effectiveness of isolation, testing, contact tracing, and physical distancing on reducing transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in different settings: a mathematical modelling study.

The isolation of symptomatic cases and tracing of contacts has been used as an early COVID-19 containment measure in many countries, with additional physical distancing measures also introduced as outbreaks have grown. To maintain control of infection while also reducing disruption to populations, there is a need to understand what combination of measures-including novel digital tracing approaches and less intensive physical distancing-might be required to reduce transmission. We aimed to estimate the reduction in transmission under different control measures across settings and how many contacts would be quarantined per day in different strategies for a given level of symptomatic case incidence. For this mathematical modelling study, we used a model of individual-level transmission stratified by setting (household, work, school, or other) based on BBC Pandemic data from 40 162 UK participants. We simulated the effect of a range of different testing, isolation, tracing, and physical distancing scenarios. Under optimistic but plausible assumptions, we estimated reduction in the effective reproduction number and the number of contacts that would be newly quarantined each day under different strategies. We estimated that combined isolation and tracing strategies would reduce transmission more than mass testing or self-isolation alone: mean transmission reduction of 2% for mass random testing of 5% of the population each week, 29% for self-isolation alone of symptomatic cases within the household, 35% for self-isolation alone outside the household, 37% for self-isolation plus household quarantine, 64% for self-isolation and household quarantine with the addition of manual contact tracing of all contacts, 57% with the addition of manual tracing of acquaintances only, and 47% with the addition of app-based tracing only. If limits were placed on gatherings outside of home, school, or work, then manual contact tracing of acquaintances alone could have an effect on transmission reduction similar to that of detailed contact tracing. In a scenario where 1000 new symptomatic cases that met the definition to trigger contact tracing occurred per day, we estimated that, in most contact tracing strategies, 15 000-41 000 contacts would be newly quarantined each day. Consistent with previous modelling studies and country-specific COVID-19 responses to date, our analysis estimated that a high proportion of cases would need to self-isolate and a high proportion of their contacts to be successfully traced to ensure an effective reproduction number lower than 1 in the absence of other measures. If combined with moderate physical distancing measures, self-isolation and contact tracing would be more likely to achieve control of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 transmission. Wellcome Trust, UK Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council, European Commission, Royal Society, Medical Research Council.

Kucharski AJ ，Klepac P ，Conlan AJK ，Kissler SM ，Tang ML ，Fry H ，Gog JR ，Edmunds WJ ，CMMID COVID-19 working group ... -  《-》

Transmission of SARS-CoV-2 in Australian educational settings: a prospective cohort study.

School closures have occurred globally during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, empiric data on transmission of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) among children and in educational settings are scarce. In Australia, most schools have remained open during the first epidemic wave, albeit with reduced student physical attendance at the epidemic peak. We examined SARS-CoV-2 transmission among children and staff in schools and early childhood education and care (ECEC) settings in the Australian state of New South Wales (NSW). Laboratory-confirmed paediatric (aged ≤18 years) and adult COVID-19 cases who attended a school or ECEC setting while considered infectious (defined as 24 h before symptom onset based on national guidelines during the study period) in NSW from Jan 25 to April 10, 2020, were investigated for onward transmission. All identified school and ECEC settings close contacts were required to home quarantine for 14 days, and were monitored and offered SARS-CoV-2 nucleic acid testing if symptomatic. Enhanced investigations in selected educational settings included nucleic acid testing and SARS-CoV-2 antibody testing in symptomatic and asymptomatic contacts. Secondary attack rates were calculated and compared with state-wide COVID-19 rates. 15 schools and ten ECEC settings had children (n=12) or adults (n=15) attend while infectious, with 1448 contacts monitored. Of these, 633 (43·7%) of 1448 had nucleic acid testing, or antibody testing, or both, with 18 secondary cases identified (attack rate 1·2%). Five secondary cases (three children; two adults) were identified (attack rate 0·5%; 5/914) in three schools. No secondary transmission occurred in nine of ten ECEC settings among 497 contacts. However, one outbreak in an ECEC setting involved transmission to six adults and seven children (attack rate 35·1%; 13/37). Across all settings, five (28·0%) of 18 secondary infections were asymptomatic (three infants [all aged 1 year], one adolescent [age 15 years], and one adult). SARS-CoV-2 transmission rates were low in NSW educational settings during the first COVID-19 epidemic wave, consistent with mild infrequent disease in the 1·8 million child population. With effective case-contact testing and epidemic management strategies and associated small numbers of attendances while infected, children and teachers did not contribute significantly to COVID-19 transmission via attendance in educational settings. These findings could be used to inform modelling and public health policy regarding school closures during the COVID-19 pandemic. NSW Government Department of Health.

Macartney K ，Quinn HE ，Pillsbury AJ ，Koirala A ，Deng L ，Winkler N ，Katelaris AL ，O'Sullivan MVN ，Dalton C ，Wood N ，NSW COVID-19 Schools Study Team ... -  《-》