Long-term dynamics and drivers of coral and macroalgal cover on inshore reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park.

Quantifying the role of biophysical and anthropogenic drivers of coral reef ecosystem processes can inform management strategies that aim to maintain or restore ecosystem structure and productivity. However, few studies have examined the combined effects of multiple drivers, partitioned their impacts, or established threshold values that may trigger shifts in benthic cover. Inshore fringing reefs of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP) occur in high-sediment, high-nutrient environments and are under increasing pressure from multiple acute and chronic stressors. Despite world-leading management, including networks of no-take marine reserves, relative declines in hard coral cover of 40-50% have occurred in recent years, with localized but persistent shifts from coral to macroalgal dominance on some reefs. Here we use boosted regression tree analyses to test the relative importance of multiple biophysical drivers on coral and macroalgal cover using a long-term (12-18 yr) data set collected from reefs at four island groups. Coral and macroalgal cover were negatively correlated at all island groups, and particularly when macroalgal cover was above 20%. Although reefs at each island group had different disturbance-and-recovery histories, degree heating weeks (DHW) and routine wave exposure consistently emerged as common drivers of coral and macroalgal cover. In addition, different combinations of sea-surface temperature, nutrient and turbidity parameters, exposure to high turbidity (primary) floodwater, depth, grazing fish density, farming damselfish density, and management zoning variously contributed to changes in coral and macroalgal cover at each island group. Clear threshold values were apparent for multiple drivers including wave exposure, depth, and degree heating weeks for coral cover, and depth, degree heating weeks, chlorophyll a, and cyclone exposure for macroalgal cover, however, all threshold values were variable among island groups. Our findings demonstrate that inshore coral reef communities are typically structured by broadscale climatic perturbations, superimposed upon unique sets of local-scale drivers. Although rapidly escalating climate change impacts are the largest threat to coral reefs of the GBRMP and globally, our findings suggest that proactive management actions that effectively reduce chronic stressors at local scales should contribute to improved reef resistance and recovery potential following acute climatic disturbances.

Ceccarelli DM ，Evans RD ，Logan M ，Mantel P ，Puotinen M ，Petus C ，Russ GR ，Williamson DH ... -  《ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS》

Physical, biological and anthropogenic drivers of spatial patterns of coral reef fish assemblages at regional and local scales.

Species abundance, diversity and community assemblage structure are determined by multiple physical, habitat and management drivers that operate across multiple spatial scales. Here we used a multi-scale coral reef monitoring dataset to examine regional and local differences in the abundance, species richness and composition of fish assemblages in no-take marine reserve (NTMR) and fished zones at four island groups in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park, Australia. We applied boosted regression trees to quantify the influence of 20 potential drivers on the coral reef fish assemblages. Reefs in two locations, Magnetic Island and the Keppel Islands, had distinctive fish assemblages and low species richness, while the Palm and Whitsunday Islands had similar species composition and higher species richness. Overall, our analyses identified several important physical (temperature, wave exposure) and biological (coral, turf, macroalgal and unconsolidated substratum cover) drivers of inshore reef fish communities, some of which are being altered by human activities. Of these, sea surface temperature (SST) was more influential at large scales, while wave exposure was important both within and between island groups. Species richness declined with increasing macroalgal cover and exposure to cyclones, and increased with SST. Species composition was most strongly influenced by mean SST and percent cover of macroalgae. There was substantial regional variation in the local drivers of spatial patterns. Although NTMR zoning influenced total fish density in some regions, it had negligible effects on fish species richness, composition and trophic structure because of the relatively small number of species targeted by the fishery. These findings show that inshore reef fishes are directly influenced by disturbances typical of the nearshore Great Barrier Reef, highlighting the need to complement global action on climate change with more targeted localised efforts to maintain or improve the condition of coral reef habitats.

Ceccarelli DM ，Evans RD ，Logan M ，Jones GP ，Puotinen M ，Petus C ，Russ GR ，Srinivasan M ，Williamson DH ... -  《-》

Regional-scale disturbances drive long-term decline of inshore coral reef fish assemblages in the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park.

Anthropogenic pressure is increasing the variety and frequency of environmental disturbance events, limiting recovery and leading to long-term declines in wild plant and animal populations. Coral reefs and associated fish assemblages are inherently dynamic due to their susceptibility to a host of disturbances, but regional-scale nuances in the drivers of long-term change frequently remain poorly resolved. Here, we examine the effects of multiple potential drivers of change in coral reef fish assemblages across 4 inshore regions of the Great Barrier Reef Marine Park (GBRMP), Australia, over 12-14 years (2007-2021). Each region had a unique disturbance history, in conjunction with long-term changes in physical and habitat variables. Phases of recovery were apparent in the years between disturbance events at all locations, but these were not long enough to prevent substantial declines in reef fish density (by 33%-72%) and species richness (by 41%-75%) throughout the study period. The main drivers of change in fish assemblages varied among regions; however, the most rapid changes followed cyclone and flood events. Limited recovery periods resulted in temporal shifts in fish species composition from typically coral-associated to algae-associated. Most trophic groups declined in density except farmers, grazers, omnivores and parrotfish. No-take marine reserves (NTMRs) had small and inconsistent effects on total fish assemblages, but delivered benefits for fishery-targeted piscivores. Our findings suggest that coral reef responses to local stressors and cumulative escalating climate change impacts are highly variable at regional scales, and that small NTMRs are unlikely to mitigate the impacts of increasingly frequent climatic disturbances. Nearshore coral reefs worldwide are high-value habitats that are either already degraded or vulnerable to degradation and the loss of important fish groups. Global efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions must be coupled with effective local management that can support the functioning and adaptive capacity of coral reefs.

Ceccarelli DM ，Logan M ，Evans RD ，Jones GP ，Puotinen M ，Petus C ，Russ GR ，Sinclair-Taylor T ，Srinivasan M ，Williamson DH ... -  《-》

The timing and causality of ecological shifts on Caribbean reefs.

Caribbean reefs have experienced unprecedented changes in the past four decades. Of great concern is the perceived widespread shift from coral to macroalgal dominance and the question of whether it represents a new, stable equilibrium for coral-reef communities. The primary causes of the shift-grazing pressure (top-down), nutrient loading (bottom-up) or direct coral mortality (side-in)-still remain somewhat controversial in the coral-reef literature. We have attempted to tease out the relative importance of each of these causes. Four insights emerge from our analysis of an early regional dataset of information on the benthic composition of Caribbean reefs spanning the years 1977-2001. First, although three-quarters of reef sites have experienced coral declines concomitant with macroalgal increases, fewer than 10% of the more than 200 sites studied were dominated by macroalgae in 2001, by even the most conservative definition of dominance. Using relative dominance as the threshold, a total of 49 coral-to-macroalgae shifts were detected. This total represents ~35% of all sites that were dominated by coral at the start of their monitoring periods. Four shifts (8.2%) occurred because of coral loss with no change in macroalgal cover, 15 (30.6%) occurred because of macroalgal gain without coral loss, and 30 (61.2%) occurred owing to concomitant coral decline and macroalgal increase. Second, the timing of shifts at the regional scale is most consistent with the side-in model of reef degradation, which invokes coral mortality as a precursor to macroalgal takeover, because more shifts occurred after regional coral-mortality events than expected by chance. Third, instantaneous observations taken at the start and end of the time-series for individual sites showed these reefs existed along a continuum of coral and macroalgal cover. The continuous, broadly negative relationship between coral and macroalgal cover suggests that in some cases coral-to-macroalgae phase shifts may be reversed by removing sources of perturbation or restoring critical components such as the herbivorous sea urchin Diadema antillarum to the system. The five instances in which macroalgal dominance was reversed corroborate the conclusion that macroalgal dominance is not a stable, alternative community state as has been commonly assumed. Fourth, the fact that the loss in regional coral cover and concomitant changes to the benthic community are related to punctuated, discrete events with known causes (i.e. coral disease and bleaching), lends credence to the hypothesis that coral reefs of the Caribbean have been under assault from climate-change-related maladies since the 1970s.

Precht WF ，Aronson RB ，Gardner TA ，Gill JA ，Hawkins JP ，Hernández-Delgado EA ，Jaap WC ，McClanahan TR ，McField MD ，Murdoch TJT ，Nugues MM ，Roberts CM ，Schelten CK ，Watkinson AR ，Côté IM ... -  《-》

Potential impacts of anthropogenic nutrient enrichment on coral reefs in the South China Sea: evidence from nutrient and chlorophyll a levels in seawater.

Guo J ，Yu K ，Wang Y ，Zhang R ，Huang X ，Qin Z ... -  《-》