Current and projected cumulative impacts of fire, drought, and insects on timber volumes across Canada.

Canada's forests are shaped by disturbances such as fire, insect outbreaks, and droughts that often overlap in time and space. The resulting cumulative disturbance risks and potential impacts on forests are generally not well accounted for by models used to predict future impacts of disturbances on forest. This study aims at projecting future cumulative effects of four main natural disturbances, fire, mountain pine beetle, spruce budworm and drought, on timber volumes across Canada's forests using an approach that accounts for potential overlap among disturbances. Available predictive models for the four natural disturbances were used to project timber volumes at risk under aggressive climate forcing up to 2100. Projections applied to the current vegetation suggest increases of volumes at risk related to fire, mountain pine beetle, and drought over time in many regions of Canada, but a decrease of the volume at risk related to spruce budworm. When disturbance effects are accumulated, important changes in volumes at risk are projected to occur as early as 2011-2041, particularly in central and eastern Canada. In our last simulation period covering 2071-2100, nearly all timber volumes in most of Canada's forest regions could be at risk of being affected by at least one of the four natural disturbances considered in our analysis, a six-fold increase relative to the baseline period (1981-2010). Tree species particularly vulnerable to specific disturbances (e.g., trembling aspen to drought) could suffer disproportionate increases in their volume at risk with potential impacts on forest composition. By 2100, estimated wood volumes not considered to be at risk could be lower than current annual timber harvests in central and eastern Canada. Current level of harvesting could thus be difficult to maintain without the implementation of adaptation measures to cope with these disturbances.

Boucher D ，Boulanger Y ，Aubin I ，Bernier PY ，Beaudoin A ，Guindon L ，Gauthier S ... -  《ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS》

Lagged cumulative spruce budworm defoliation affects the risk of fire ignition in Ontario, Canada.

Detailed understanding of forest disturbance interactions is needed for effective forecasting, modelling, and management. Insect outbreaks are a significant forest disturbance that alters forest structure as well as the distribution and connectivity of combustible fuels at broad spatial scales. The effect of insect outbreaks on fire activity is an important but contentious issue with significant policy consequences. The eastern spruce budworm (Choristoneura fumiferana) is a native defoliating insect in eastern North America whose periodic outbreaks create large patches of dead fir and spruce trees. Of particular concern to fire and forest managers is whether these patches represent an increased fire risk, if so, for how long, and how the relationship between defoliation and fire risk varies through space and time. Previous work suggests a temporary increase in flammability in budworm-killed forests, but regional and seasonal variability in these relationships has not been examined. Using an extensive database on historical lightning-caused fire ignitions and spruce budworm defoliation between 1963 and 2000, we assess the relative importance of cumulative defoliation and fire weather on the probability of ignition in Ontario, Canada. We modeled fire ignition using a generalized additive logistic regression model that accounts for temporal autocorrelation in fire weather. We compared two ecoregions in eastern Ontario (Abitibi Plains) and western Ontario (Lake of the Woods) that differ in terms of climate, geomorphology, and forest composition. We found that defoliation has the potential to both increase and decrease the probability of ignition depending on the time scale, ecoregion, and season examined. Most importantly, we found that lagged spruce budworm defoliation (8-10 yr) increases the risk of fire ignition whereas recent defoliation (1 yr) can decrease this risk. We also found that historical defoliation has a greater influence on ignition risk during the spring than during the summer fire season. Given predicted increases in forest insect activity due to global change, these results represent important information for fire management agencies that can be used to refine existing models of fire risk.

James PM ，Robert LE ，Wotton BM ，Martell DL ，Fleming RA ... -  《ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS》

Comparing modern and presettlement forest dynamics of a subboreal wilderness: does spruce budworm enhance fire risk?

Sturtevant BR ，Miranda BR ，Shinneman DJ ，Gustafson EJ ，Wolter PT ... -  《ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS》

Contributions of insects and droughts to growth decline of trembling aspen mixed boreal forest of western Canada.

Insects, diseases, fire and drought and other disturbances associated with global climate change contribute to forest decline and mortality in many parts of the world. Forest decline and mortality related to drought or insect outbreaks have been observed in North American aspen forests. However, little research has been done to partition and estimate their relative contributions to growth declines. In this study, we combined tree-ring width and basal area increment series from 40 trembling aspen (Populus tremuloides Michx.) sites along a latitudinal gradient (from 52° to 58°N) in western Canada and attempted to investigate the effect of drought and insect outbreaks on growth decline, and simultaneously partition and quantify their relative contributions. Results indicated that the influence of drought on forest decline was stronger than insect outbreaks, although both had significant effects. Furthermore, the influence of drought and insect outbreaks showed spatiotemporal variability. In addition, our data suggest that insect outbreaks could be triggered by warmer early spring temperature instead of drought, implicating that potentially increased insect outbreaks are expected with continued warming springs, which may further exacerbate growth decline and death in North America aspen mixed forests.

Chen L ，Huang JG ，Dawson A ，Zhai L ，Stadt KJ ，Comeau PG ，Whitehouse C ... -  《-》

Short- and long-term efficacy of forest thinning to mitigate drought impacts in mountain forests in the European Alps.

Elkin C ，Giuggiola A ，Rigling A ，Bugmann H ... -  《ECOLOGICAL APPLICATIONS》