Development and external validation of new ultrasound-based mathematical models for preoperative prediction of high-risk endometrial cancer.

To develop and validate strategies, using new ultrasound-based mathematical models, for the prediction of high-risk endometrial cancer and compare them with strategies using previously developed models or the use of preoperative grading only. Women with endometrial cancer were prospectively examined using two-dimensional (2D) and three-dimensional (3D) gray-scale and color Doppler ultrasound imaging. More than 25 ultrasound, demographic and histological variables were analyzed. Two logistic regression models were developed: one 'objective' model using mainly objective variables; and one 'subjective' model including subjective variables (i.e. subjective impression of myometrial and cervical invasion, preoperative grade and demographic variables). The following strategies were validated: a one-step strategy using only preoperative grading and two-step strategies using preoperative grading as the first step and one of the new models, subjective assessment or previously developed models as a second step. One-hundred and twenty-five patients were included in the development set and 211 were included in the validation set. The 'objective' model retained preoperative grade and minimal tumor-free myometrium as variables. The 'subjective' model retained preoperative grade and subjective assessment of myometrial invasion. On external validation, the performance of the new models was similar to that on the development set. Sensitivity for the two-step strategy with the 'objective' model was 78% (95% CI, 69-84%) at a cut-off of 0.50, 82% (95% CI, 74-88%) for the strategy with the 'subjective' model and 83% (95% CI, 75-88%) for that with subjective assessment. Specificity was 68% (95% CI, 58-77%), 72% (95% CI, 62-80%) and 71% (95% CI, 61-79%) respectively. The two-step strategies detected up to twice as many high-risk cases as preoperative grading only. The new models had a significantly higher sensitivity than did previously developed models, at the same specificity. Two-step strategies with 'new' ultrasound-based models predict high-risk endometrial cancers with good accuracy and do this better than do previously developed models.

Van Holsbeke C ，Ameye L ，Testa AC ，Mascilini F ，Lindqvist P ，Fischerova D ，Frühauf F ，Fransis S ，de Jonge E ，Timmerman D ，Epstein E ... -  《-》

Factors affecting sonographic preoperative local staging of endometrial cancer.

To identify major factors in the under- and overestimation of cervical and myometrial invasion by endometrial cancer at preoperative staging by ultrasound. This prospective study involved all patients with histologically confirmed endometrial cancer referred consecutively for surgical staging between January 2009 and December 2011. All patients underwent transvaginal ultrasound examination, obtaining metric and perfusion data, and the results were compared with final histology: myometrial invasion was defined at histology in the final pathology report as being either < or ≥ 50%, while cervical stromal invasion was reported as being either present or absent, and sonographic over-/underestimation was determined relative to these. Enrolled prospectively into the study were 210 patients. The proportion of cases with sonographic underestimation, relative to final histology, of myometrial invasion (i.e. false-negative estimation of no or superficial invasion < 50%) and of cervical invasion (i.e. false-negative finding of absence of stromal invasion) was comparable: 8.6% (n = 18) and 10.5% (n = 22), respectively. Myometrial invasion was overestimated by ultrasound (i.e. false-positive estimation of deep invasion ≥ 50%) in 15.7% (n = 33) of cases, and cervical invasion was overestimated (i.e. false-positive finding of presence of stromal invasion) in 4.8% (n = 10) of cases. These outcomes correspond to positive and negative predictive values of 67.6% (95% CI, 57.7-76.6) and 83.3% (95% CI, 74.9-89.8), respectively, for the subjective assessment of myometrial invasion, and 60.0% (95% CI, 38.2-79.2) and 88.1% (95% CI, 82.5-92.4), respectively, for that of cervical stromal invasion. The staging error in subjective assessment was not related to body mass index (BMI), to the position of the uterus in the pelvis or to image quality. Cervical and myometrial invasion were more often underestimated in well-differentiated endometrial cancers that were smaller in size, with thick minimum tumor-free myometrium and lower perfusion, and more often overestimated in moderately and poorly differentiated cancers that were larger in size, with thin minimum tumor-free myometrium and richer perfusion. The accuracy of subjective assessment of myometrial and cervical invasion by ultrasound was significantly influenced by tumor size, density of tumor vascularization, tumor vessel architecture and histological grading, while it was not significantly affected by BMI, uterine position and image quality.

Fischerova D ，Frühauf F ，Zikan M ，Pinkavova I ，Kocián R ，Dundr P ，Nemejcova K ，Dusek L ，Cibula D ... -  《-》

Evaluating myometrial and cervical invasion in women with endometrial cancer: comparing subjective assessment with objective measurement techniques.

To compare the diagnostic accuracy of subjective ultrasound assessment with that of objective measurement techniques in the evaluation of myometrial and cervical invasion in women with endometrial cancer. This was a prospective multicenter study including 144 women with endometrial cancer undergoing transvaginal ultrasound. Myometrial and cervical invasion was evaluated subjectively, as well as objectively measured in different ways: endometrial thickness, tumor/uterine anteroposterior (AP) diameter ratio, minimal tumor-free margin, minimal tumor-free margin/uterine AP diameter ratio, tumor volume (three-dimensional (3D)), tumor/uterine volume (3D) ratio, and distance from outer cervical os to lower margin of tumor (Dist-OCO). Histological assessment following hysterectomy was the gold standard. The sensitivity (72%) and specificity (76%) of tumor/uterine AP diameter (at cut-off, 0.53) were not significantly different from those of subjective evaluation (sensitivity, 77% (P = 0.44); specificity, 81% (P = 0.32)) for the prediction of deep myometrial invasion; all other objective measurement techniques had either a significantly lower sensitivity or a lower specificity. For all objective measurement techniques, except minimal tumor-free margin/uterine AP diameter ratio, fixing the sensitivity at the same level as that of subjective evaluation (i.e. 77%) gave a significantly lower specificity. Dist-OCO was the only parameter that might have potential to predict cervical invasion; it had a non-significantly higher sensitivity than did subjective evaluation (73% vs 54%, P = 0.06), but a significantly lower specificity (63% vs 93%, P < 0.001). Subjective assessment of cervical and myometrial invasion is as good as or better than any objective measurement technique. The tumor/uterine AP diameter ratio and minimal tumor-free margin/uterine AP diameter ratio seem to be the best objective measurement techniques to predict deep myometrial invasion. It remains to be shown if objective measurements are useful to predict cervical invasion.

Mascilini F ，Testa AC ，Van Holsbeke C ，Ameye L ，Timmerman D ，Epstein E ... -  《-》

Transvaginal ultrasound assessment of myometrial and cervical stromal invasion in women with endometrial cancer: interobserver reproducibility among ultrasound experts and gynecologists.

To assess interobserver reproducibility among ultrasound experts and gynecologists in the prediction by transvaginal ultrasound of deep myometrial and cervical stromal invasion in women with endometrial cancer. Sonographic videoclips of the uterine corpus and cervix of 53 women with endometrial cancer, examined preoperatively by the same ultrasound expert, were integrated into a digitalized survey. Nine ultrasound experts and nine gynecologists evaluated presence or absence of deep myometrial and cervical stromal invasion. Histopathology from hysterectomy specimens was used as the gold standard. Compared with gynecologists, ultrasound experts showed higher sensitivity, specificity and agreement with histopathology in the assessment of cervical stromal invasion (42% (95% CI, 31-53%) vs 57% (95% CI, 45-68%), P < 0.01; 83% (95% CI, 78-86%) vs 87% (95% CI, 83-90%), P = 0.02; and kappa, 0.45 (95% CI, 0.40-0.49) vs 0.58 (95% CI, 0.53-0.62), P < 0.001, respectively) but not of deep myometrial invasion (73% (95% CI, 66-79%) vs 73% (95% CI, 66-79%), P = 1.0; 70% (95% CI, 65-75%) vs 69% (95% CI, 63-74%), P = 0.68; and kappa, 0.48 (95% CI, 0.44-0.53) vs 0.52 (95% CI, 0.48-0.57), P = 0.11, respectively). Though interobserver reproducibility (in the context of test proportions 'good' and 'very good', according to kappa) regarding deep myometrial invasion did not differ between the groups (experts, 34% vs gynecologists, 22%, P = 0.13), ultrasound experts assessed cervical stromal invasion with significantly greater interobserver reproducibility than did gynecologists (53% vs 14%, P < 0.001). Preoperative ultrasound assessment of deep myometrial and cervical stromal invasion in endometrial cancer is best performed by ultrasound experts, as, compared with gynecologists, they showed a greater degree of agreement with histopathology and greater interobserver reproducibility in the assessment of cervical stromal invasion.

Eriksson LS ，Lindqvist PG ，Flöter Rådestad A ，Dueholm M ，Fischerova D ，Franchi D ，Jokubkiene L ，Leone FP ，Savelli L ，Sladkevicius P ，Testa AC ，Van den Bosch T ，Ameye L ，Epstein E ... -  《-》

Validation of ultrasound strategies to assess tumor extension and to predict high-risk endometrial cancer in women from the prospective IETA (International Endometrial Tumor Analysis)-4 cohort.

To compare the performance of ultrasound measurements and subjective ultrasound assessment (SA) in detecting deep myometrial invasion (MI) and cervical stromal invasion (CSI) in women with endometrial cancer, overall and according to whether they had low- or high-grade disease separately, and to validate published measurement cut-offs and prediction models to identify MI, CSI and high-risk disease (Grade-3 endometrioid or non-endometrioid cancer and/or deep MI and/or CSI). The study comprised 1538 patients with endometrial cancer from the International Endometrial Tumor Analysis (IETA)-4 prospective multicenter study, who underwent standardized expert transvaginal ultrasound examination. SA and ultrasound measurements were used to predict deep MI and CSI. We assessed the diagnostic accuracy of the tumor/uterine anteroposterior (AP) diameter ratio for detecting deep MI and that of the distance from the lower margin of the tumor to the outer cervical os (Dist-OCO) for detecting CSI. We also validated two two-step strategies for the prediction of high-risk cancer; in the first step, biopsy-confirmed Grade-3 endometrioid or mucinous or non-endometrioid cancers were classified as high-risk cancer, while the second step encompassed the application of a mathematical model to classify the remaining tumors. The 'subjective prediction model' included biopsy grade (Grade 1 vs Grade 2) and subjective assessment of deep MI or CSI (presence or absence) as variables, while the 'objective prediction model' included biopsy grade (Grade 1 vs Grade 2) and minimal tumor-free margin. The predictive performance of the two two-step strategies was compared with that of simply classifying patients as high risk if either deep MI or CSI was suspected based on SA or if biopsy showed Grade-3 endometrioid or mucinous or non-endometrioid histotype (i.e. combining SA with biopsy grade). Histological assessment from hysterectomy was considered the reference standard. In 1275 patients with measurable lesions, the sensitivity and specificity of SA for detecting deep MI was 70% and 80%, respectively, in patients with a Grade-1 or -2 endometrioid or mucinous tumor vs 76% and 64% in patients with a Grade-3 endometrioid or mucinous or a non-endometrioid tumor. The corresponding values for the detection of CSI were 51% and 94% vs 50% and 91%. Tumor AP diameter and tumor/uterine AP diameter ratio showed the best performance for predicting deep MI (area under the receiver-operating characteristics curve (AUC) of 0.76 and 0.77, respectively), and Dist-OCO had the best performance for predicting CSI (AUC, 0.72). The proportion of patients classified correctly as having high-risk cancer was 80% when simply combining SA with biopsy grade vs 80% and 74% when using the subjective and objective two-step strategies, respectively. The subjective and objective models had an AUC of 0.76 and 0.75, respectively, when applied to Grade-1 and -2 endometrioid tumors. In the hands of experienced ultrasound examiners, SA was superior to ultrasound measurements for the prediction of deep MI and CSI of endometrial cancer, especially in patients with a Grade-1 or -2 tumor. The mathematical models for the prediction of high-risk cancer performed as expected. The best strategies for predicting high-risk endometrial cancer were combining SA with biopsy grade and the subjective two-step strategy, both having an accuracy of 80%. Copyright © 2019 ISUOG. Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd.

Verbakel JY ，Mascilini F ，Wynants L ，Fischerova D ，Testa AC ，Franchi D ，Frühauf F ，Cibula D ，Lindqvist PG ，Fruscio R ，Haak LA ，Opolskiene G ，Alcazar JL ，Mais V ，Carlson JW ，Sladkevicius P ，Timmerman D ，Valentin L ，Bosch TVD ，Epstein E ... -  《-》