CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc risk factors to predict first cardiovascular hospitalization among atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter patients.

Limited data exist concerning risk factors for cardiovascular (CV) hospitalization in patients with atrial fibrillation (AF) or atrial flutter (AFL). The aim of this retrospective cohort evaluation was to assess whether patient characteristics and risk factors, including CHADS(2) (congestive heart failure, hypertension, age ≥75 years, type 2 diabetes, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack [doubled]) and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc (congestive heart failure; hypertension; age ≥75 years [doubled]; type 2 diabetes; previous stroke, transient ischemic attack, or thromboembolism [doubled]; vascular disease; age 65 to 75 years; and sex category) scores, identified patients with AF or AFL at risk for CV hospitalization. Claims data (January 2003 to June 2009) were evaluated to identify patients aged ≥40 years with ≥1 inpatient or ≥2 (within 30 days of each other) outpatient diagnoses of AF or AFL and an absence of diagnosis codes related to cardiac surgery within 30 days of AF or AFL diagnosis. Risk factors for first CV hospitalization in the 2-year period after diagnosis were assessed using univariate and multivariate analyses. Overall, 377,808 patients (mean age 73.9 ± 12.1 years) were identified, of whom 128,048 had CV hospitalizations. CHADS(2) and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc scores were the top 2 predictors of first CV hospitalization after AF or AFL diagnosis. Hospitalization risk was increased 2.3- to 2.7-fold in patients with CHADS(2) scores of 6 and approximately 3.0-fold in patients with CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc scores of 9 compared to patients with a score of 0. These increases were maintained essentially unchanged throughout the 2-year follow-up period. In conclusion, CHADS(2) and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc scores were predictive of first CV hospitalization in patients with AF or AFL and may be helpful in identifying "at-risk" patients and guiding therapy.

Naccarelli GV ，Panaccio MP ，Cummins G ，Tu N ... -  《-》

Reliable identification of "truly low" thromboembolic risk in patients initially diagnosed with "lone" atrial fibrillation: the Belgrade atrial fibrillation study.

Potpara TS ，Polovina MM ，Licina MM ，Marinkovic JM ，Prostran MS ，Lip GY ... -  《-》

The HAS-BLED score has better prediction accuracy for major bleeding than CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc scores in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation.

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that a specific bleeding risk score, HAS-BLED (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile international normalized ratio, elderly, drugs/alcohol concomitantly), was better at predicting major bleeding compared with CHADS2 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, 75 years of age or older, diabetes mellitus, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack) and CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, 75 years of age and older, diabetes mellitus, previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, 65 to 74 years of age, female) in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are well-validated stroke risk prediction scores for AF, but are also associated with increased bleeding and mortality. We recruited 1,370 consecutive AF patients (49% male; median age, 76 years) receiving oral anticoagulation therapy from our outpatient anticoagulation clinic, all of whom were receiving acenocoumarol and had an international normalized ratio between 2.0 and 3.0 during the preceding 6 months. During follow-up, major bleeding events were identified by the 2005 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis criteria. Model performance was evaluated by calculating the C-statistic, and the improvement in predictive accuracy was evaluated by calculating the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement. After a median follow-up of 996 (range, 802 to 1,254) days, 114 patients (3.0%/year) presented with a major bleeding event; 31 of these events were intracranial hemorrhages (0.8%/year). Based on the C-statistic, HAS-BLED had a model performance superior to that of both CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc (both p < 0.001). Both net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement analyses also show that HAS-BLED was more accurately associated with major bleeding compared with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores. In anticoagulated AF patients, a validated specific bleeding risk score, HAS-BLED, should be used for assessing major bleeding. The practice of using CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc as a measure of high bleeding risk should be discouraged, given its inferior predictive performance compared with the HAS-BLED score.

Roldán V ，Marín F ，Manzano-Fernández S ，Gallego P ，Vílchez JA ，Valdés M ，Vicente V ，Lip GY ... -  《-》

Incremental cost burden to US healthcare payers of atrial fibrillation/atrial flutter patients with additional risk factors.

Amin AN ，Jhaveri M ，Lin J 《-》

Usefulness of transesophageal echocardiography to confirm clinical utility of CHA2DS2-VASc and CHADS2 scores in atrial flutter.

The CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc and CHADS(2) risk stratification schemes are used to predict thromboembolism and ischemic stroke in patients with atrial fibrillation. However, limited data are available regarding the utility of these risk stratification schemes for stroke in patients with atrial flutter. A retrospective analysis of 455 transesophageal echocardiographic studies in patients with atrial flutter was performed to identify left atrial (LA) thrombi and/or spontaneous echocardiographic contrast (SEC). The CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years [doubled risk weight], Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack [doubled risk weight], Vascular disease, Age 65 to 74 years, Sex) and CHADS(2) (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age ≥75 years, Diabetes mellitus, previous Stroke/transient ischemic attack [double risk weight]) scores were calculated to stratify the risk of stroke or transient cerebrovascular ischemic events. Transesophageal echocardiography revealed LA thrombi in 5.3% and SEC in 25.9% of patients. Using CHADS(2), LA thrombus was found in 2.2% of the low-intermediate-risk group and 8.3% of the high-risk group (p = 0.005). SEC was found in 19.8% of the low-intermediate-risk group and 32% of the high-risk group (p = 0.004). Using CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc, LA thrombus was found in 1.7% of the low-intermediate-risk group and 6.5% of the high-risk group (p = 0.053). SEC was found in 11.8% of the low-intermediate-risk group versus 30.9% of the high-risk group (p = 0.004). The sensitivity for LA thrombus/SEC with a high CHADS(2) and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc score was 64.8% and 88.7%, respectively (p = 0.0001). The specificity for LA thrombus/SEC with high CHADS(2) and CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc scores was 52.6% and 28.9%, respectively (p = 0.0001). In conclusion, both CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc and CHADS(2) scores are useful for stroke risk stratification in patients with atrial flutter. CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc had greater sensitivity for LA thrombus and SEC detection at the cost of reduced specificity.

Parikh MG ，Aziz Z ，Krishnan K ，Madias C ，Trohman RG ... -  《-》