The HAS-BLED score has better prediction accuracy for major bleeding than CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc scores in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation.

The aim of this study was to test the hypothesis that a specific bleeding risk score, HAS-BLED (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function, stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile international normalized ratio, elderly, drugs/alcohol concomitantly), was better at predicting major bleeding compared with CHADS2 (congestive heart failure, hypertension, 75 years of age or older, diabetes mellitus, and previous stroke or transient ischemic attack) and CHA2DS2-VASc (congestive heart failure, hypertension, 75 years of age and older, diabetes mellitus, previous stroke or transient ischemic attack, vascular disease, 65 to 74 years of age, female) in anticoagulated atrial fibrillation (AF) patients. The CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores are well-validated stroke risk prediction scores for AF, but are also associated with increased bleeding and mortality. We recruited 1,370 consecutive AF patients (49% male; median age, 76 years) receiving oral anticoagulation therapy from our outpatient anticoagulation clinic, all of whom were receiving acenocoumarol and had an international normalized ratio between 2.0 and 3.0 during the preceding 6 months. During follow-up, major bleeding events were identified by the 2005 International Society on Thrombosis and Haemostasis criteria. Model performance was evaluated by calculating the C-statistic, and the improvement in predictive accuracy was evaluated by calculating the net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement. After a median follow-up of 996 (range, 802 to 1,254) days, 114 patients (3.0%/year) presented with a major bleeding event; 31 of these events were intracranial hemorrhages (0.8%/year). Based on the C-statistic, HAS-BLED had a model performance superior to that of both CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc (both p < 0.001). Both net reclassification improvement and integrated discrimination improvement analyses also show that HAS-BLED was more accurately associated with major bleeding compared with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores. In anticoagulated AF patients, a validated specific bleeding risk score, HAS-BLED, should be used for assessing major bleeding. The practice of using CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc as a measure of high bleeding risk should be discouraged, given its inferior predictive performance compared with the HAS-BLED score.

Roldán V ，Marín F ，Manzano-Fernández S ，Gallego P ，Vílchez JA ，Valdés M ，Vicente V ，Lip GY ... -  《-》

Stroke and bleeding risk co-distribution in real-world patients with atrial fibrillation: the Euro Heart Survey.

The choice to recommend antithrombotic therapy to patients with atrial fibrillation should rely on cardioembolic and bleeding risk stratification. Sharing some risk factors, schemes to predict thrombotic and bleeding risk are expected not to be independent, yet the degree of their association has never been clearly quantified. We described the cardioembolic (Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age >75, Diabetes mellitus, and prior Stroke or transient ischemic attack [CHADS2]/Congestive heart failure, Hypertension, Age >75, Diabetes mellitus, and prior Stroke or transient ischemic attack, Vascular disease, Age 65-75, Sex category i.e. females [CHA2DS2-VASc]) and bleeding risk (Hypertension, Abnormal renal/liver function, Stroke, Bleeding history or predisposition, Labile international normalized ratio, Elderly (>65 years), Drugs/alcohol concomitantly [HAS-BLED]) co-distribution among patients of the Euro Heart Survey on atrial fibrillation. We measured the within-patient correlation (Spearman) and concordance between the 2 types of score and score-based risk categorization (low, intermediate, high). The score-based predicted risk co-classification was then related to the observed 1-year stroke and bleeding occurrence. In 3920 patients, we found a between-scores correlation of 0.416 (P < .001) between HAS-BLED and CHADS2, and 0.512 (P < .001) between HAS-BLED and CHA2DS2-VASc. In 89% (CHADS2/HAS-BLED) and 97% (CHA2DS2-VASc/HAS-BLED) of patients, the bleeding risk category was equal to or lower than their cardioembolic risk category (P < .001 for symmetry test). A complete concordance between risk categories was found in 39.6% (CHADS2/HAS-BLED) and 21.7% (CHA2DS2-VASc/HAS-BLED) of patients; 4.4% (CHADS2/HAS-BLED) and 7.7% (CHA2DS2-VASc/HAS-BLED) of patients had high cardioembolic risk/low bleeding risk or vice versa. A tendency for an increasing frequency of stroke was observed for increasing bleeding risk within cardioembolic risk categories and vice versa. In a real-world population with atrial fibrillation, we confirmed that the cardioembolic and bleeding risk classifications are correlated but not exchangeable. It is then worth verifying the advantages of a strategy adopting a combined risk assessment over a strategy relying only on the cardioembolic risk evaluation.

Marcucci M ，Lip GY ，Nieuwlaat R ，Pisters R ，Crijns HJ ，Iorio A ... -  《-》

Comparison of the CHA(2)DS(2)-VASc, CHADS(2), HAS-BLED, ORBIT, and ATRIA Risk Scores in Predicting Non-Vitamin K Antagonist Oral Anticoagulants-Associated Bleeding in Patients With Atrial Fibrillation.

The increasing adoption of non-vitamin K antagonist oral anticoagulants (NOACs) for stroke prevention in atrial fibrillation (AF) necessitates a reassessment of bleeding risk scores. Because known risk factors for bleeding are largely the same as for stroke, we hypothesize that stroke risk scores could also be used to identify patients with high bleeding risks. We aimed to compare the performance of 2 stroke risk scores (Congestive Heart failure, hypertension, Age ≥75 [doubled], Diabetes, Stroke [doubled], Vascular disease, Age 65-74, and Sex [female] [CHA2DS2-VASc] and Cardiac failure, Hypertension, Age, Diabetes, Stroke [Doubled] [CHADS2]) and 3 bleeding risk scores (hypertension, abnormal renal/liver function [1 point each], stroke, bleeding history or predisposition, labile INR, elderly [.65 years], drugs/alcohol concomitantly [1 point each] [HAS-BLED], Outcomes Registry for Better Informed Treatment of Atrial Fibrillation [ORBIT], and AnTicoagulation and Risk factors In Atrial fibrillation [ATRIA]) in predicting major and intracranial bleeding. Using a large US commercial insurance database, we identified 39,539 patients with nonvalvular AF who started NOACs between October 1, 2010 and June 30, 2015. The performance of risk scores was compared using C-statistic and net reclassification improvement (NRI). Over a total of 22,583 person-years, 665 patients (2.94% per year) had major bleeding, including 74 intracranial hemorrhages (0.33% per year). For the prediction of major bleeding, CHA2DS2-VASc had the highest C-statistic both as a continuous score (C-statistic 0.68) and as a categorical score (C-statistic 0.65). For the prediction of intracranial bleeding, CHADS2 had the highest C-statistic both as a continuous score (C-statistic 0.66) and as a categorical score (C-statistic 0.66). There were no statistically significant differences between scores based on NRI. In conclusion, CHA2DS2-VASc, CHADS2, HAS-BLED, ORBIT, and ATRIA had similar, albeit modest, performance in predicting NOAC-associated bleeding in patients with AF. Careful assessment and active management of bleeding risk factors may be warranted in all patients on NOACs who have high stroke risk scores.

Yao X ，Gersh BJ ，Sangaralingham LR ，Kent DM ，Shah ND ，Abraham NS ，Noseworthy PA ... -  《-》

Comparison of the CHADS2, CHA2DS2-VASc and HAS-BLED scores for the prediction of clinically relevant bleeding in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation: the AMADEUS trial.

Apostolakis S ，Lane DA ，Buller H ，Lip GY ... -  《-》

Relation of the HAS-BLED bleeding risk score to major bleeding, cardiovascular events, and mortality in anticoagulated patients with atrial fibrillation.

Gallego P ，Roldán V ，Torregrosa JM ，Gálvez J ，Valdés M ，Vicente V ，Marín F ，Lip GY ... -  《-》