Extent of lung fibrosis is of greater prognostic importance than HRCT pattern in patients with progressive pulmonary fibrosis: data from the ILD-PRO registry.

The prognostic value of patterns and quantitative measures of lung fibrosis on high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) in patients identified as having progressive pulmonary fibrosis (PPF) has not been established. We investigated whether HRCT patterns and quantitative scores were associated with risk of progression in patients with PPF. Patients enrolled in the ILD-PRO Registry had an interstitial lung disease (ILD) other than idiopathic pulmonary fibrosis, reticular abnormality and traction bronchiectasis, and met criteria for ILD progression. HRCT images taken between 24 months prior to enrollment and 90 days after enrollment were analyzed using a machine learning algorithm to derive quantitative scores. Associations were assessed between HRCT pattern (usual interstitial pneumonia [UIP]-like versus other patterns) and tertiles of quantitative scores and measures of disease severity at enrollment, and between these patterns/tertiles at enrollment and ILD progression (relative decline in forced vital capacity [FVC] % predicted ≥ 10%, lung transplant, or death) over a median follow-up of 17.3 months. Among 395 patients, 178 (45.1%) had a UIP-like pattern on HRCT. A UIP-like pattern did not associate with worse disease severity at enrollment or an increased risk of ILD progression (HR 1.01 [95% CI: 0.71, 1.44]). The highest quantitative lung fibrosis (QLF) score tertile (≥ 20.5%) was associated with worse disease severity. In unadjusted analyses, patients with QLF scores in the highest tertile had a significantly increased risk of ILD progression versus the middle tertile (HR [95% CI] 1.63 [1.07, 2.49] and a numerically increased risk versus the lowest tertile (HR 1.46 [0.97, 2.18]); however, after adjustment for sex, age, FVC % predicted and oxygen use at enrollment, there were no significant differences. There were no significant associations between tertiles of quantitative ILD score, quantitative ground glass score, or quantitative honeycomb cysts score and risk of ILD progression in unadjusted or adjusted analyses. In a real-world cohort of patients with PPF, QLF score associated with subsequent risk of ILD progression, while HRCT pattern did not. The QLF score did not provide additional prognostic information beyond clinical variables. ClinicalTrials.gov; No: NCT01915511; registered August 5, 2013; URL: www. gov .

Swaminathan AC ，Weber JM ，Todd JL ，Palmer SM ，Neely ML ，Whelan TP ，Kim GHJ ，Leonard TB ，Goldin J ... -  《RESPIRATORY RESEARCH》

Long-Term Air Pollution Exposure and Severity of Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis: Data from the Idiopathic Pulmonary Fibrosis Prospective Outcomes (IPF-PRO) Registry.

Sack C ，Wojdyla DM ，MacMurdo MG ，Gassett A ，Kaufman JD ，Raghu G ，Redlich CA ，Li P ，Olson AL ，Leonard TB ，Todd JL ，Neely ML ，Snyder LD ，Gulati M ，IPF-PRO Registry investigators ... -  《-》

Intravenous antibiotics for pulmonary exacerbations in people with cystic fibrosis.

Cystic fibrosis is a multisystem disease characterised by the production of thick secretions causing recurrent pulmonary infection, often with unusual bacteria. Intravenous (IV) antibiotics are commonly used in the treatment of acute deteriorations in symptoms (pulmonary exacerbations); however, recently the assumption that exacerbations are due to increases in bacterial burden has been questioned. This is an update of a previously published review. To establish whether IV antibiotics for the treatment of pulmonary exacerbations in people with cystic fibrosis improve short-term and long-term clinical outcomes. We searched the Cochrane Cystic Fibrosis Trials Register, compiled from electronic database searches and handsearching of journals and conference abstract books. We also searched the reference lists of relevant articles and reviews and ongoing trials registers. Date of last search of Cochrane Trials Register: 19 June 2024. Randomised controlled trials and the first treatment cycle of cross-over studies comparing IV antibiotics (given alone or in an antibiotic combination) with placebo, or inhaled or oral antibiotics for people with cystic fibrosis experiencing a pulmonary exacerbation. Studies comparing different IV antibiotic regimens were also eligible. We assessed studies for eligibility and risk of bias, and extracted data. Using GRADE, we assessed the certainty of the evidence for the outcomes lung function % predicted (forced expiratory volume in one second (FEV1) and forced vital capacity (FVC)), time to next exacerbation and quality of life. We included 45 studies involving 2810 participants. The included studies were mostly small, and inadequately reported, many of which were quite old. The certainty of the evidence was mostly low. Combined intravenous antibiotics versus placebo Data reported for absolute change in % predicted FEV1 and FVC suggested a possible improvement in favour of IV antibiotics, but the evidence is very uncertain (1 study, 12 participants; very low-certainty evidence). The study did not measure time to next exacerbation or quality of life. Intravenous versus nebulised antibiotics Five studies (122 participants) reported FEV1, with analysable data only from one study (16 participants). We found no difference between groups (moderate-certainty evidence). Three studies (91 participants) reported on FVC, with analysable data from only one study (54 participants). We are very uncertain on the effect of nebulised antibiotics (very low-certainty evidence). In one study, the 16 participants on nebulised plus IV antibiotics had a lower mean number of days to next exacerbation than those on combined IV antibiotics (low-certainty evidence), but we found no difference in quality of life between groups (low-certainty evidence). Intravenous versus oral antibiotics Three studies (172 participants) reported no difference in different measures of lung function. We found no difference in analysable data between IV and oral antibiotic regimens in either FEV1 % predicted or FVC % predicted (1 study, 24 participants; low-certainty evidence) or in the time to the next exacerbation (1 study, 108 participants; very low-certainty evidence). No study measured quality of life. Intravenous antibiotic regimens compared One study (analysed as two data sets) compared the duration of IV antibiotic regimens between two groups (split according to initial antibiotic response). The first part was a non-inferiority study in 214 early treatment responders to establish whether 10 days of IV antibiotic treatment was as effective as 14 days. Second, investigators looked at whether 14 or 21 days of IV antibiotics were more effective in 705 participants who did not respond early to treatment. We found no difference in FEV1 % predicted with any duration of treatment (919 participants; high-certainty evidence) or the time to next exacerbation (information later taken from registry data). Investigators did not report FVC or quality of life. Other comparisons We also found little or no difference in lung function when comparing single IV antibiotic regimens to placebo (2 studies, 70 participants), or in lung function and time to next exacerbation when comparing different single antibiotic regimens (2 studies, 95 participants). There may be a greater improvement in lung function in participants receiving combined IV antibiotics compared to single IV antibiotics (6 studies, 265 participants; low- to very low-certainty evidence), but probably no difference in the time to next exacerbation (1 study, 34 participants; low-certainty evidence). Four studies compared a single IV antibiotic plus placebo to a combined IV antibiotic regimen with high levels of heterogeneity in the results. We are very uncertain if there is any difference between groups in lung function (4 studies, 214 participants) and there may be little or no difference to being re-admitted to hospital for an exacerbation (2 studies, 104 participants). Nine studies (417 participants) compared combined IV antibiotic regimens with a great variation in drugs. We identified no differences in any measure of lung function or the time to next exacerbation between different regimens (low- to very low-certainty evidence). There were mixed results for adverse events across all comparisons; common adverse effects included elevated liver function tests, gastrointestinal events and haematological abnormalities. There were limited data for other secondary outcomes, such as weight, and there was no evidence of treatment effect. The evidence of benefit from administering IV antibiotics for pulmonary exacerbations in cystic fibrosis is often poor, especially in terms of size of studies and risk of bias, particularly in older studies. We are not certain whether there is any difference between specific antibiotic combinations, and neither is there evidence of a difference between the IV route and the inhaled or oral routes. There is limited evidence that shorter antibiotic duration in adults who respond early to treatment is not different to a longer period of treatment. There remain several unanswered questions regarding optimal IV antibiotic treatment regimens.

Hurley MN ，Smith S ，Flume P ，Jahnke N ，Prayle AP ... -  《Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews》

Validation of a semi-quantitative method to assess interstitial lung disease severity and progression in systemic sclerosis by standard and low-dose HRCT scans.

While the presence of distinct imaging abnormalities by high-resolution CT (HRCT) defines interstitial lung disease (ILD), there is a relative lack of validated methods to quantify these abnormalities in clinical practice, limiting ILD severity and progression assessments. We aimed to validate a semi-quantitative method for lung fibrosis assessment in patients with systemic sclerosis associated ILD (SSc-ILD) by standard and low-dose HRCT, considering lung structure and function as integral components of ILD evaluation. SSc patients from Oslo and Zurich with HRCT images, pulmonary function tests, including forced vital capacity (FVC), diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLCO) and the 6-minute walk test with oxygen (O2) desaturation were enrolled. We validated the semi-quantitative fibrosis extent method by HRCT using criteria for content and construct validity, discrimination, sensitivity to change and feasibility, as well as inter- and intra-rater variability. 65 SSc patients from Zurich and 90 from Oslo were included. Significant correlations were observed between the extent of fibrosis on HRCT and FVC (r=-0.517, p<0.001), DLCO (r=-0.400, p<0.001) and O2 desaturation (r=-0.500, p<0.001), indicating content, construct and criterion validity. Discrimination and sensitivity to change assessments showed moderate correlation with DLCO (r=-0.377, p=0.003) but not with FVC or O2 desaturation. Inter- and intra-rater variability demonstrated excellent reliability (κ=0.891 and κ=0.996, respectively), with HRCT quantification averaging 9-15 min, indicating high feasibility. This study confirms that semi-quantitative fibrosis assessment of HRCT for SSc-ILD meets most validation criteria, supporting its use in clinical practice and showing additive value of structural to functional ILD assessment.

Tschalèr L ，Jordan S ，Aaløkken TM ，Becker M ，Brunborg C ，Bruni C ，Clarenbach C ，Dobrota R ，Durheim MT ，Elhai M ，Frauenfelder T ，Fretheim H ，Garen T ，Midtvedt O ，Mihai C ，Molberg Ø ，Distler O ，Hoffmann-Vold AM ... -  《-》

Comparison of Two Modern Survival Prediction Tools, SORG-MLA and METSSS, in Patients With Symptomatic Long-bone Metastases Who Underwent Local Treatment With Surgery Followed by Radiotherapy and With Radiotherapy Alone.

Survival estimation for patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases ideally should be made before a type of local treatment has already been determined. Currently available survival prediction tools, however, were generated using data from patients treated either operatively or with local radiation alone, raising concerns about whether they would generalize well to all patients presenting for assessment. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine-learning algorithm (SORG-MLA), trained with institution-based data of surgically treated patients, and the Metastases location, Elderly, Tumor primary, Sex, Sickness/comorbidity, and Site of radiotherapy model (METSSS), trained with registry-based data of patients treated with radiotherapy alone, are two of the most recently developed survival prediction models, but they have not been tested on patients whose local treatment strategy is not yet decided. (1) Which of these two survival prediction models performed better in a mixed cohort made up both of patients who received local treatment with surgery followed by radiotherapy and who had radiation alone for symptomatic bone metastases? (2) Which model performed better among patients whose local treatment consisted of only palliative radiotherapy? (3) Are laboratory values used by SORG-MLA, which are not included in METSSS, independently associated with survival after controlling for predictions made by METSSS? Between 2010 and 2018, we provided local treatment for 2113 adult patients with skeletal metastases in the extremities at an urban tertiary referral academic medical center using one of two strategies: (1) surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy or (2) palliative radiotherapy alone. Every patient's survivorship status was ascertained either by their medical records or the national death registry from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Administration. After applying a priori designated exclusion criteria, 91% (1920) were analyzed here. Among them, 48% (920) of the patients were female, and the median (IQR) age was 62 years (53 to 70 years). Lung was the most common primary tumor site (41% [782]), and 59% (1128) of patients had other skeletal metastases in addition to the treated lesion(s). In general, the indications for surgery were the presence of a complete pathologic fracture or an impending pathologic fracture, defined as having a Mirels score of ≥ 9, in patients with an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification of less than or equal to IV and who were considered fit for surgery. The indications for radiotherapy were relief of pain, local tumor control, prevention of skeletal-related events, and any combination of the above. In all, 84% (1610) of the patients received palliative radiotherapy alone as local treatment for the target lesion(s), and 16% (310) underwent surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy. Neither METSSS nor SORG-MLA was used at the point of care to aid clinical decision-making during the treatment period. Survival was retrospectively estimated by these two models to test their potential for providing survival probabilities. We first compared SORG to METSSS in the entire population. Then, we repeated the comparison in patients who received local treatment with palliative radiation alone. We assessed model performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration analysis, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The AUROC measures discrimination, which is the ability to distinguish patients with the event of interest (such as death at a particular time point) from those without. AUROC typically ranges from 0.5 to 1.0, with 0.5 indicating random guessing and 1.0 a perfect prediction, and in general, an AUROC of ≥ 0.7 indicates adequate discrimination for clinical use. Calibration refers to the agreement between the predicted outcomes (in this case, survival probabilities) and the actual outcomes, with a perfect calibration curve having an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1. A positive intercept indicates that the actual survival is generally underestimated by the prediction model, and a negative intercept suggests the opposite (overestimation). When comparing models, an intercept closer to 0 typically indicates better calibration. Calibration can also be summarized as log(O:E), the logarithm scale of the ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) survivors. A log(O:E) > 0 signals an underestimation (the observed survival is greater than the predicted survival); and a log(O:E) < 0 indicates the opposite (the observed survival is lower than the predicted survival). A model with a log(O:E) closer to 0 is generally considered better calibrated. The Brier score is the mean squared difference between the model predictions and the observed outcomes, and it ranges from 0 (best prediction) to 1 (worst prediction). The Brier score captures both discrimination and calibration, and it is considered a measure of overall model performance. In Brier score analysis, the "null model" assigns a predicted probability equal to the prevalence of the outcome and represents a model that adds no new information. A prediction model should achieve a Brier score at least lower than the null-model Brier score to be considered as useful. The DCA was developed as a method to determine whether using a model to inform treatment decisions would do more good than harm. It plots the net benefit of making decisions based on the model's predictions across all possible risk thresholds (or cost-to-benefit ratios) in relation to the two default strategies of treating all or no patients. The care provider can decide on an acceptable risk threshold for the proposed treatment in an individual and assess the corresponding net benefit to determine whether consulting with the model is superior to adopting the default strategies. Finally, we examined whether laboratory data, which were not included in the METSSS model, would have been independently associated with survival after controlling for the METSSS model's predictions by using the multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Between the two models, only SORG-MLA achieved adequate discrimination (an AUROC of > 0.7) in the entire cohort (of patients treated operatively or with radiation alone) and in the subgroup of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy alone. SORG-MLA outperformed METSSS by a wide margin on discrimination, calibration, and Brier score analyses in not only the entire cohort but also the subgroup of patients whose local treatment consisted of radiotherapy alone. In both the entire cohort and the subgroup, DCA demonstrated that SORG-MLA provided more net benefit compared with the two default strategies (of treating all or no patients) and compared with METSSS when risk thresholds ranged from 0.2 to 0.9 at both 90 days and 1 year, indicating that using SORG-MLA as a decision-making aid was beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting for treatment was 0.2 to 0.9. Higher albumin, lower alkaline phosphatase, lower calcium, higher hemoglobin, lower international normalized ratio, higher lymphocytes, lower neutrophils, lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lower platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, higher sodium, and lower white blood cells were independently associated with better 1-year and overall survival after adjusting for the predictions made by METSSS. Based on these discoveries, clinicians might choose to consult SORG-MLA instead of METSSS for survival estimation in patients with long-bone metastases presenting for evaluation of local treatment. Basing a treatment decision on the predictions of SORG-MLA could be beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting to undergo a particular treatment strategy ranged from 0.2 to 0.9. Future studies might investigate relevant laboratory items when constructing or refining a survival estimation model because these data demonstrated prognostic value independent of the predictions of the METSSS model, and future studies might also seek to keep these models up to date using data from diverse, contemporary patients undergoing both modern operative and nonoperative treatments. Level III, diagnostic study.

Lee CC ，Chen CW ，Yen HK ，Lin YP ，Lai CY ，Wang JL ，Groot OQ ，Janssen SJ ，Schwab JH ，Hsu FM ，Lin WH ... -  《-》