Analysis of data from the NHANES 1999-2018 and Mendelian randomization studies reveals the relationship between alcohol use and rheumatoid arthritis.

Rheumatoid arthritis (RA) is a complex multifactorial autoimmune disease affected by genetics and environmental factors. The relationship between alcohol consumption and RA remains controversial. This study aimed to assess the association between alcohol consumption and RA risk using cross-sectional analysis and Mendelian randomization (MR). We investigated the association between alcohol consumption and RA risk through multivariate linear regression and subgroup analyses. Data were obtained from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey (NHANES) 1999-2018 which involved 32,308 participants. Subsequently, a two-sample MR study was conducted to assess the causal effect of spirits intake on RA. Instrumental variables (IVs) for spirits intake were screened from genome-wide association study (GWAS) datasets, including 69,949 individuals from the UK Biobank study, while summary statistics relating to RA were obtained from a GWAS meta-analysis of 417,256 participants. The primary inverse variance weighted (IVW) method and other supplementary MR methods were used to estimate the causal association between spirits intake and RA. Sensitivity analyses were performed to confirm the robustness and reliability of the results. In the cross-sectional analysis, we observed that alcohol consumption was significantly positively linked with RA risk (odds ratio [OR] = 1.030; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.025-1.034). According to subgroup analyses stratified by age, sex, race, smoking status, marital status, education attainment, and body mass index (BMI), consistently showed a positive relationship between alcohol consumption and RA risk in each subgroup (all OR > 1, P < 0.05). Furthermore, MR analysis indicated a causal association between spirits intake and RA (OR = 1.043, P < 0.05). Sensitivity analyses supported the robustness and reliability of these findings (all P > 0.05). This study indicated that alcohol consumption is correlated with an increased risk of RA, but further studies are necessary to clarify the exact association.

Yang X ，Long X ，Xiao P ，Ge Q ，Zhang L ，Wang X ... -  《Nutrition Journal》

The Association between Rheumatic Diseases and the Risk of Polycystic Ovary Syndrome: A Two-Sample Mendelian Randomization Analysis.

Wang J ，Zhou Q 《BRITISH JOURNAL OF HOSPITAL MEDICINE》

HIV and risk of hypertension: a two-sample Mendelian randomization study.

Previous studies have shown that human immunodeficiency virus (HIV) infection is associated with hypertension; however, the results of these studies are affected by a variety of confounding factors. There is no definite evidence to prove a causal relationship between these two factors. This study aimed to investigate the causal relationship between HIV infection and hypertension. A two-sample Mendelian randomization (MR) study was conducted using genome-wide association study (GWAS) statistics published online. The data were collected mainly from the OpenGWAS and FinnGen databases. The HIV database contained 357 HIV patients and 218,435 control patients; the hypertension database contained 54,358 patients and 408,652 control patients; and the blood pressure database contained 436,424 samples. Random effect inverse variance weighting (IVW) was used as the main analysis method, weighted median and Mr-Egger analysis methods were used to ensure the accuracy of the results, and Cochran's Q test and Mr-Egger regression methods were used to detect heterogeneity and correct multiple horizontal effects. Finally, the leave-one-out method was used to analyse the reliability of the test results. In order to further verify the research results, different databases were used and the same statistical method was used for a replication analysis. In order to prevent false positive results caused by multiple tests, Bonferroni correction is used to correct the statistical results. After screening, a total of 9 SNPs (single-nucleotide polymorphisms) were selected as the instrumental variable (IV) used in this study. The IVW MR analysis results showed a causal relationship between HIV infection and the risk of hypertension (IVW: OR = 1.001, P = 0.03). When systolic blood pressure was the outcome, the IVW method results were positive (OR = 1.004, P = 0.01280), and when diastolic blood pressure was the outcome, the weighted median method results were positive (OR = 1.004, P = 0.04570). According to the sensitivity analysis, the results of this study were unlikely to be affected by heterogeneity and horizontal pleiotropy. The leave-one-out analysis showed that the results of this study did not change significantly with the elimination of a single SNP. In replication analysis, when diastolic blood pressure was taken as the outcome, the weighted median method was positive (OR = 1.042, P = 0.037). Sensitivity analysis shows that there is heterogeneity, but there is no horizontal pleiotropy. The leave-one-out analysis showed that the results of this study did not change significantly with the elimination of a single SNP. As the first exploratory study using MR method to study the causal relationship between HIV infection and hypertension and blood pressure, this study found that HIV infection may increase systolic and diastolic blood pressure and increase the risk of hypertension. PLWH, as a high-risk group of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases, should prevent the occurrence of hypertension in order to further improve their quality of life. However, this study also has some limitations. The results of the relationship between HIV infection and hypertension and blood pressure may be affected by the lack of statistical efficacy. In order to further confirm this conclusion, more large-scale RCT or genetic studies should be carried out.

Zhu RW ，Guo HY ，Niu LN ，Deng M ，Li XF ，Jing L ... -  《BMC INFECTIOUS DISEASES》

Comparison of Two Modern Survival Prediction Tools, SORG-MLA and METSSS, in Patients With Symptomatic Long-bone Metastases Who Underwent Local Treatment With Surgery Followed by Radiotherapy and With Radiotherapy Alone.

Survival estimation for patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases ideally should be made before a type of local treatment has already been determined. Currently available survival prediction tools, however, were generated using data from patients treated either operatively or with local radiation alone, raising concerns about whether they would generalize well to all patients presenting for assessment. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine-learning algorithm (SORG-MLA), trained with institution-based data of surgically treated patients, and the Metastases location, Elderly, Tumor primary, Sex, Sickness/comorbidity, and Site of radiotherapy model (METSSS), trained with registry-based data of patients treated with radiotherapy alone, are two of the most recently developed survival prediction models, but they have not been tested on patients whose local treatment strategy is not yet decided. (1) Which of these two survival prediction models performed better in a mixed cohort made up both of patients who received local treatment with surgery followed by radiotherapy and who had radiation alone for symptomatic bone metastases? (2) Which model performed better among patients whose local treatment consisted of only palliative radiotherapy? (3) Are laboratory values used by SORG-MLA, which are not included in METSSS, independently associated with survival after controlling for predictions made by METSSS? Between 2010 and 2018, we provided local treatment for 2113 adult patients with skeletal metastases in the extremities at an urban tertiary referral academic medical center using one of two strategies: (1) surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy or (2) palliative radiotherapy alone. Every patient's survivorship status was ascertained either by their medical records or the national death registry from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Administration. After applying a priori designated exclusion criteria, 91% (1920) were analyzed here. Among them, 48% (920) of the patients were female, and the median (IQR) age was 62 years (53 to 70 years). Lung was the most common primary tumor site (41% [782]), and 59% (1128) of patients had other skeletal metastases in addition to the treated lesion(s). In general, the indications for surgery were the presence of a complete pathologic fracture or an impending pathologic fracture, defined as having a Mirels score of ≥ 9, in patients with an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification of less than or equal to IV and who were considered fit for surgery. The indications for radiotherapy were relief of pain, local tumor control, prevention of skeletal-related events, and any combination of the above. In all, 84% (1610) of the patients received palliative radiotherapy alone as local treatment for the target lesion(s), and 16% (310) underwent surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy. Neither METSSS nor SORG-MLA was used at the point of care to aid clinical decision-making during the treatment period. Survival was retrospectively estimated by these two models to test their potential for providing survival probabilities. We first compared SORG to METSSS in the entire population. Then, we repeated the comparison in patients who received local treatment with palliative radiation alone. We assessed model performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration analysis, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The AUROC measures discrimination, which is the ability to distinguish patients with the event of interest (such as death at a particular time point) from those without. AUROC typically ranges from 0.5 to 1.0, with 0.5 indicating random guessing and 1.0 a perfect prediction, and in general, an AUROC of ≥ 0.7 indicates adequate discrimination for clinical use. Calibration refers to the agreement between the predicted outcomes (in this case, survival probabilities) and the actual outcomes, with a perfect calibration curve having an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1. A positive intercept indicates that the actual survival is generally underestimated by the prediction model, and a negative intercept suggests the opposite (overestimation). When comparing models, an intercept closer to 0 typically indicates better calibration. Calibration can also be summarized as log(O:E), the logarithm scale of the ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) survivors. A log(O:E) > 0 signals an underestimation (the observed survival is greater than the predicted survival); and a log(O:E) < 0 indicates the opposite (the observed survival is lower than the predicted survival). A model with a log(O:E) closer to 0 is generally considered better calibrated. The Brier score is the mean squared difference between the model predictions and the observed outcomes, and it ranges from 0 (best prediction) to 1 (worst prediction). The Brier score captures both discrimination and calibration, and it is considered a measure of overall model performance. In Brier score analysis, the "null model" assigns a predicted probability equal to the prevalence of the outcome and represents a model that adds no new information. A prediction model should achieve a Brier score at least lower than the null-model Brier score to be considered as useful. The DCA was developed as a method to determine whether using a model to inform treatment decisions would do more good than harm. It plots the net benefit of making decisions based on the model's predictions across all possible risk thresholds (or cost-to-benefit ratios) in relation to the two default strategies of treating all or no patients. The care provider can decide on an acceptable risk threshold for the proposed treatment in an individual and assess the corresponding net benefit to determine whether consulting with the model is superior to adopting the default strategies. Finally, we examined whether laboratory data, which were not included in the METSSS model, would have been independently associated with survival after controlling for the METSSS model's predictions by using the multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Between the two models, only SORG-MLA achieved adequate discrimination (an AUROC of > 0.7) in the entire cohort (of patients treated operatively or with radiation alone) and in the subgroup of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy alone. SORG-MLA outperformed METSSS by a wide margin on discrimination, calibration, and Brier score analyses in not only the entire cohort but also the subgroup of patients whose local treatment consisted of radiotherapy alone. In both the entire cohort and the subgroup, DCA demonstrated that SORG-MLA provided more net benefit compared with the two default strategies (of treating all or no patients) and compared with METSSS when risk thresholds ranged from 0.2 to 0.9 at both 90 days and 1 year, indicating that using SORG-MLA as a decision-making aid was beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting for treatment was 0.2 to 0.9. Higher albumin, lower alkaline phosphatase, lower calcium, higher hemoglobin, lower international normalized ratio, higher lymphocytes, lower neutrophils, lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lower platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, higher sodium, and lower white blood cells were independently associated with better 1-year and overall survival after adjusting for the predictions made by METSSS. Based on these discoveries, clinicians might choose to consult SORG-MLA instead of METSSS for survival estimation in patients with long-bone metastases presenting for evaluation of local treatment. Basing a treatment decision on the predictions of SORG-MLA could be beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting to undergo a particular treatment strategy ranged from 0.2 to 0.9. Future studies might investigate relevant laboratory items when constructing or refining a survival estimation model because these data demonstrated prognostic value independent of the predictions of the METSSS model, and future studies might also seek to keep these models up to date using data from diverse, contemporary patients undergoing both modern operative and nonoperative treatments. Level III, diagnostic study.

Lee CC ，Chen CW ，Yen HK ，Lin YP ，Lai CY ，Wang JL ，Groot OQ ，Janssen SJ ，Schwab JH ，Hsu FM ，Lin WH ... -  《-》

A causal association between obesity and constipation: a two-sample bidirectional Mendelian randomization study and meta-analysis.

Observational studies suggest a potential link between obesity and constipation, but existing results are conflicting. Therefore, we conducted a Mendelian randomization (MR) study and meta-analysis to assess the causal relationship between obesity and the risk of constipation. In this study, independent genetic variants closely related to constipation were acquired from a genome-wide association study (GWAS) to analyze the relationship between genetically predisposed obesity and the risk of constipation. Waist circumference (WC), hip circumference (HC), waist-to-hip ratio (WHR), and body mass index (BMI) were collected from the GWAS. Then, the causal relationship between constipation and obesity was explored using a two-sample MR study in both directions. The robustness of the results was evaluated using sensitivity analysis. Furthermore, a systemic review and meta-analysis were performed to calculate relative risks (RRs) with corresponding 95% confidence intervals (95% CIs). Subgroup analyses stratified by age and obesity degree were completed. To evaluate whether the current studies were affected by unmeasured confounders, E-values of each study were determined. In MR analysis, the incidence of constipation increased with the increase in BMI [inverse variance-weighted (IVW) odds ratio (OR) = 1.138 (1.029, 1.260), p = 0.012]. In addition, constipation was impacted by WC [IVW OR = 1.220 (1.061, 1.402), p = 0.005]. However, there was no evidence that WHR [IVW OR = 1.833 (0.826, 4.065), p = 0.136] or HC [IVW OR = 0.949, (0.836, 1.077), p = 0.415] has a causal effect on constipation. In reverse MR analysis, there was no evidence supporting the causality between constipation and obesity [BMI IVW OR = 1.010 (0.998, 1.022), p = 0.089; WHR IVW OR = 1.000 (0.946, 1.057), p = 0.994; WC IVW OR = 1.008 (0.995, 1.022), p = 0.217; HC IVW OR = 0.996 (0.982, 1.011), p = 0.626]. In the meta-analysis, 14 eligible articles were included, involving 43,488 subjects. According to the results of the meta-analysis, the risk of obesity and overweight significantly increased the risk of constipation [RR = 1.145 (0.952, 1.376)]. This was consistent with the MR analysis results. Moreover, overweight and obesity were significantly related to a higher constipation risk among children [overweight RR = 1.112 (0.943, 1.312); obesity RR = 1.407 (1.282, 1.544)]. Additionally, overweight in adults could decrease the risk of constipation [RR = 0.940 (0.827, 1.068)]. Nevertheless, no significant association was observed between obesity in adults and the risk of constipation [RR = 1.000 (0.768, 1.303)]. Sensitivity analysis revealed the robustness of our findings. In this combined MR study and meta-analysis, obesity is associated with an increased risk of constipation. The MR analysis demonstrates the causal relationship between genetically predisposed obesity and the risk of constipation. More research is required to investigate the potential correlation between obesity and the risk of constipation and associated mechanisms.

Sun X ，Zhang S ，Zhou X 《Frontiers in Nutrition》