Impact of Chinese visceral adiposity index on all-cause mortality risk in community-dwelling older adults: a prospective cohort study.

Whether excess visceral fat tissue increases the risk of death in older individuals remains controversial. To investigate the association between the Chinese Visceral Adiposity Index (CVAI) and all-cause mortality risk in older Chinese individuals. This cohort study utilized data of individuals aged ≥ 65 years in 2014 to 2018 wave from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey database. Older individuals in the 2014 wave were included and followed up in 2018. CVAI was calculated based on age, body size, and blood lipid parameters, with higher values indicating increased visceral fat. Survival status was determined from official death certificates, local primary healthcare providers, or the family members of participants. Kaplan-Meier survival curve and log-rank test were employed to analyze cumulative mortality risk through CVAI tertiles (tertile 1: CVAI index < 97.34; tertile 2: 97.43 ≤ CVAI index < 132.21; and tertile 3: CVAI index ≥ 132.21). A Cox proportional hazards regression model was used to assess the relationship between the CVAI groups and all-cause mortality risk. Additionally, a sensitivity analysis was performed by excluding participants who died within the first year of follow-up. A subgroup analysis was performed based on age and sex, and a restricted cubic spline plot was created to analyze the dose-response relationship between CVAI and mortality risk. A total of 1414 individuals were included, and the mean age of the participants was 84.6 (standard deviation: 10.9) years, of which 46.4% were women and 32.8% were died during a median follow-up time of 36.4 months. In the multivariable adjusted Cox regression model, we observed a significantly lower risk of mortality in the CVAI tertile 2 and 3 groups than in the tertile 1 group. The hazard ratios (HR) of the tertile 2 and 3 groups were 0.68 (95% CI, approximately 0.52-0.89) and 0.63 (95% CI, approximately 0.48-0.82), respectively. Subgroup analysis revealed that the protective effect of higher CVAI levels on mortality was more pronounced in participants aged 65-79 years and in women. Our study established a linear relationship between CVAI and mortality risk among community-dwelling older adults, with higher CVAI levels associated with a lower risk of all-cause mortality. These findings highlight the potential importance of visceral adiposity in predicting mortality risk in community-dwelling older adults.

Zhang Y ，Shi M ，Dong Z ，Li T ，Gong Y ，Ge W ... -  《-》

The interaction between triglyceride-glucose index and visceral adiposity in cardiovascular disease risk: findings from a nationwide Chinese cohort.

Globally, cardiovascular disease (CVD) constitutes the primary cause of death, with insulin resistance (IR), measured by the triglyceride-glucose (TyG) index, and visceral obesity, reflected by the Chinese Visceral Adiposity Index (CVAI), as key contributors. However, the relationship between the TyG index and CVAI regarding CVD risk remains insufficiently understood. This research investigates the interactive impact of the TyG index and CVAI on the risk of cardiovascular disease. We analyzed data from 8,358 participants from the China Health and Retirement Longitudinal Study (CHARLS) over a 9-year follow-up period. Participants were classified into four groups based on median TyG index (8.59) and CVAI values (101.26), and baseline characteristics were summarized. Missing data were addressed using multiple imputation by chained equations (MICE). Cox proportional hazards models assessed associations between TyG index, CVAI, CVD, coronary heart disease (CHD), and stroke risks, with Kaplan-Meier analysis used for cumulative hazard. Interaction effects were evaluated using both multiplicative and additive measures. Subgroup analyses by age, gender, and clinical conditions were conducted to explore interaction effects across different populations. Sensitivity analyses re-tested models, excluding the covariates BMI and diabetes, using tertiles for classification, and re-evaluating imputed data. Over the 9-year follow-up, 1,240 participants (14.8%) developed CVD, including 896 cases of CHD and 475 strokes. Kaplan-Meier curves indicated that participants with low TyG index but high CVAI had the highest cumulative hazard of CVD. Cox regression showed that this group had the highest CVD risk (HR = 1.87, 95% CI: 1.57-2.24), followed by those with both high TyG index and high CVAI (HR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.49-2.06). Interaction analysis revealed a negative interaction effect between high TyG and high CVAI on CVD and CHD risks, with no significant effect on stroke. Subgroup and sensitivity analyses further confirmed these findings, showing consistent results across demographic groups and under various analytical conditions. This study suggests that the interaction between IR (TyG index) and visceral fat accumulation (CVAI) plays a complex role in CVD risk, with a potential antagonistic effect observed between high TyG and high CVAI on CVD events. These findings highlight the importance of considering both IR and visceral adiposity in CVD risk assessments to improve the identification of high-risk individuals.

Yang Y ，Li S ，Ren Q ，Qiu Y ，Pan M ，Liu G ，Zheng R ，An Z ，Li S ... -  《Cardiovascular Diabetology》

Comparison of Two Modern Survival Prediction Tools, SORG-MLA and METSSS, in Patients With Symptomatic Long-bone Metastases Who Underwent Local Treatment With Surgery Followed by Radiotherapy and With Radiotherapy Alone.

Survival estimation for patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases ideally should be made before a type of local treatment has already been determined. Currently available survival prediction tools, however, were generated using data from patients treated either operatively or with local radiation alone, raising concerns about whether they would generalize well to all patients presenting for assessment. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine-learning algorithm (SORG-MLA), trained with institution-based data of surgically treated patients, and the Metastases location, Elderly, Tumor primary, Sex, Sickness/comorbidity, and Site of radiotherapy model (METSSS), trained with registry-based data of patients treated with radiotherapy alone, are two of the most recently developed survival prediction models, but they have not been tested on patients whose local treatment strategy is not yet decided. (1) Which of these two survival prediction models performed better in a mixed cohort made up both of patients who received local treatment with surgery followed by radiotherapy and who had radiation alone for symptomatic bone metastases? (2) Which model performed better among patients whose local treatment consisted of only palliative radiotherapy? (3) Are laboratory values used by SORG-MLA, which are not included in METSSS, independently associated with survival after controlling for predictions made by METSSS? Between 2010 and 2018, we provided local treatment for 2113 adult patients with skeletal metastases in the extremities at an urban tertiary referral academic medical center using one of two strategies: (1) surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy or (2) palliative radiotherapy alone. Every patient's survivorship status was ascertained either by their medical records or the national death registry from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Administration. After applying a priori designated exclusion criteria, 91% (1920) were analyzed here. Among them, 48% (920) of the patients were female, and the median (IQR) age was 62 years (53 to 70 years). Lung was the most common primary tumor site (41% [782]), and 59% (1128) of patients had other skeletal metastases in addition to the treated lesion(s). In general, the indications for surgery were the presence of a complete pathologic fracture or an impending pathologic fracture, defined as having a Mirels score of ≥ 9, in patients with an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification of less than or equal to IV and who were considered fit for surgery. The indications for radiotherapy were relief of pain, local tumor control, prevention of skeletal-related events, and any combination of the above. In all, 84% (1610) of the patients received palliative radiotherapy alone as local treatment for the target lesion(s), and 16% (310) underwent surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy. Neither METSSS nor SORG-MLA was used at the point of care to aid clinical decision-making during the treatment period. Survival was retrospectively estimated by these two models to test their potential for providing survival probabilities. We first compared SORG to METSSS in the entire population. Then, we repeated the comparison in patients who received local treatment with palliative radiation alone. We assessed model performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration analysis, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The AUROC measures discrimination, which is the ability to distinguish patients with the event of interest (such as death at a particular time point) from those without. AUROC typically ranges from 0.5 to 1.0, with 0.5 indicating random guessing and 1.0 a perfect prediction, and in general, an AUROC of ≥ 0.7 indicates adequate discrimination for clinical use. Calibration refers to the agreement between the predicted outcomes (in this case, survival probabilities) and the actual outcomes, with a perfect calibration curve having an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1. A positive intercept indicates that the actual survival is generally underestimated by the prediction model, and a negative intercept suggests the opposite (overestimation). When comparing models, an intercept closer to 0 typically indicates better calibration. Calibration can also be summarized as log(O:E), the logarithm scale of the ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) survivors. A log(O:E) > 0 signals an underestimation (the observed survival is greater than the predicted survival); and a log(O:E) < 0 indicates the opposite (the observed survival is lower than the predicted survival). A model with a log(O:E) closer to 0 is generally considered better calibrated. The Brier score is the mean squared difference between the model predictions and the observed outcomes, and it ranges from 0 (best prediction) to 1 (worst prediction). The Brier score captures both discrimination and calibration, and it is considered a measure of overall model performance. In Brier score analysis, the "null model" assigns a predicted probability equal to the prevalence of the outcome and represents a model that adds no new information. A prediction model should achieve a Brier score at least lower than the null-model Brier score to be considered as useful. The DCA was developed as a method to determine whether using a model to inform treatment decisions would do more good than harm. It plots the net benefit of making decisions based on the model's predictions across all possible risk thresholds (or cost-to-benefit ratios) in relation to the two default strategies of treating all or no patients. The care provider can decide on an acceptable risk threshold for the proposed treatment in an individual and assess the corresponding net benefit to determine whether consulting with the model is superior to adopting the default strategies. Finally, we examined whether laboratory data, which were not included in the METSSS model, would have been independently associated with survival after controlling for the METSSS model's predictions by using the multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Between the two models, only SORG-MLA achieved adequate discrimination (an AUROC of > 0.7) in the entire cohort (of patients treated operatively or with radiation alone) and in the subgroup of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy alone. SORG-MLA outperformed METSSS by a wide margin on discrimination, calibration, and Brier score analyses in not only the entire cohort but also the subgroup of patients whose local treatment consisted of radiotherapy alone. In both the entire cohort and the subgroup, DCA demonstrated that SORG-MLA provided more net benefit compared with the two default strategies (of treating all or no patients) and compared with METSSS when risk thresholds ranged from 0.2 to 0.9 at both 90 days and 1 year, indicating that using SORG-MLA as a decision-making aid was beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting for treatment was 0.2 to 0.9. Higher albumin, lower alkaline phosphatase, lower calcium, higher hemoglobin, lower international normalized ratio, higher lymphocytes, lower neutrophils, lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lower platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, higher sodium, and lower white blood cells were independently associated with better 1-year and overall survival after adjusting for the predictions made by METSSS. Based on these discoveries, clinicians might choose to consult SORG-MLA instead of METSSS for survival estimation in patients with long-bone metastases presenting for evaluation of local treatment. Basing a treatment decision on the predictions of SORG-MLA could be beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting to undergo a particular treatment strategy ranged from 0.2 to 0.9. Future studies might investigate relevant laboratory items when constructing or refining a survival estimation model because these data demonstrated prognostic value independent of the predictions of the METSSS model, and future studies might also seek to keep these models up to date using data from diverse, contemporary patients undergoing both modern operative and nonoperative treatments. Level III, diagnostic study.

Lee CC ，Chen CW ，Yen HK ，Lin YP ，Lai CY ，Wang JL ，Groot OQ ，Janssen SJ ，Schwab JH ，Hsu FM ，Lin WH ... -  《-》

Falls prevention interventions for community-dwelling older adults: systematic review and meta-analysis of benefits, harms, and patient values and preferences.

About 20-30% of older adults (≥ 65 years old) experience one or more falls each year, and falls are associated with substantial burden to the health care system, individuals, and families from resulting injuries, fractures, and reduced functioning and quality of life. Many interventions for preventing falls have been studied, and their effectiveness, factors relevant to their implementation, and patient preferences may determine which interventions to use in primary care. The aim of this set of reviews was to inform recommendations by the Canadian Task Force on Preventive Health Care (task force) on fall prevention interventions. We undertook three systematic reviews to address questions about the following: (i) the benefits and harms of interventions, (ii) how patients weigh the potential outcomes (outcome valuation), and (iii) patient preferences for different types of interventions, and their attributes, shown to offer benefit (intervention preferences). We searched four databases for benefits and harms (MEDLINE, Embase, AgeLine, CENTRAL, to August 25, 2023) and three for outcome valuation and intervention preferences (MEDLINE, PsycINFO, CINAHL, to June 9, 2023). For benefits and harms, we relied heavily on a previous review for studies published until 2016. We also searched trial registries, references of included studies, and recent reviews. Two reviewers independently screened studies. The population of interest was community-dwelling adults ≥ 65 years old. We did not limit eligibility by participant fall history. The task force rated several outcomes, decided on their eligibility, and provided input on the effect thresholds to apply for each outcome (fallers, falls, injurious fallers, fractures, hip fractures, functional status, health-related quality of life, long-term care admissions, adverse effects, serious adverse effects). For benefits and harms, we included a broad range of non-pharmacological interventions relevant to primary care. Although usual care was the main comparator of interest, we included studies comparing interventions head-to-head and conducted a network meta-analysis (NMAs) for each outcome, enabling analysis of interventions lacking direct comparisons to usual care. For benefits and harms, we included randomized controlled trials with a minimum 3-month follow-up and reporting on one of our fall outcomes (fallers, falls, injurious fallers); for the other questions, we preferred quantitative data but considered qualitative findings to fill gaps in evidence. No date limits were applied for benefits and harms, whereas for outcome valuation and intervention preferences we included studies published in 2000 or later. All data were extracted by one trained reviewer and verified for accuracy and completeness. For benefits and harms, we relied on the previous review team's risk-of-bias assessments for benefit outcomes, but otherwise, two reviewers independently assessed the risk of bias (within and across study). For the other questions, one reviewer verified another's assessments. Consensus was used, with adjudication by a lead author when necessary. A coding framework, modified from the ProFANE taxonomy, classified interventions and their attributes (e.g., supervision, delivery format, duration/intensity). For benefit outcomes, we employed random-effects NMA using a frequentist approach and a consistency model. Transitivity and coherence were assessed using meta-regressions and global and local coherence tests, as well as through graphical display and descriptive data on the composition of the nodes with respect to major pre-planned effect modifiers. We assessed heterogeneity using prediction intervals. For intervention-related adverse effects, we pooled proportions except for vitamin D for which we considered data in the control groups and undertook random-effects pairwise meta-analysis using a relative risk (any adverse effects) or risk difference (serious adverse effects). For outcome valuation, we pooled disutilities (representing the impact of a negative event, e.g. fall, on one's usual quality of life, with 0 = no impact and 1 = death and ~ 0.05 indicating important disutility) from the EQ-5D utility measurement using the inverse variance method and a random-effects model and explored heterogeneity. When studies only reported other data, we compared the findings with our main analysis. For intervention preferences, we used a coding schema identifying whether there were strong, clear, no, or variable preferences within, and then across, studies. We assessed the certainty of evidence for each outcome using CINeMA for benefit outcomes and GRADE for all other outcomes. A total of 290 studies were included across the reviews, with two studies included in multiple questions. For benefits and harms, we included 219 trials reporting on 167,864 participants and created 59 interventions (nodes). Transitivity and coherence were assessed as adequate. Across eight NMAs, the number of contributing trials ranged between 19 and 173, and the number of interventions ranged from 19 to 57. Approximately, half of the interventions in each network had at least low certainty for benefit. The fallers outcome had the highest number of interventions with moderate certainty for benefit (18/57). For the non-fall outcomes (fractures, hip fracture, long-term care [LTC] admission, functional status, health-related quality of life), many interventions had very low certainty evidence, often from lack of data. We prioritized findings from 21 interventions where there was moderate certainty for at least some benefit. Fourteen of these had a focus on exercise, the majority being supervised (for > 2 sessions) and of long duration (> 3 months), and with balance/resistance and group Tai Chi interventions generally having the most outcomes with at least low certainty for benefit. None of the interventions having moderate certainty evidence focused on walking. Whole-body vibration or home-hazard assessment (HHA) plus exercise provided to everyone showed moderate certainty for some benefit. No multifactorial intervention alone showed moderate certainty for any benefit. Six interventions only had very-low certainty evidence for the benefit outcomes. Two interventions had moderate certainty of harmful effects for at least one benefit outcome, though the populations across studies were at high risk for falls. Vitamin D and most single-component exercise interventions are probably associated with minimal adverse effects. Some uncertainty exists about possible adverse effects from other interventions. For outcome valuation, we included 44 studies of which 34 reported EQ-5D disutilities. Admission to long-term care had the highest disutility (1.0), but the evidence was rated as low certainty. Both fall-related hip (moderate certainty) and non-hip (low certainty) fracture may result in substantial disutility (0.53 and 0.57) in the first 3 months after injury. Disutility for both hip and non-hip fractures is probably lower 12 months after injury (0.16 and 0.19, with high and moderate certainty, respectively) compared to within the first 3 months. No study measured the disutility of an injurious fall. Fractures are probably more important than either falls (0.09 over 12 months) or functional status (0.12). Functional status may be somewhat more important than falls. For intervention preferences, 29 studies (9 qualitative) reported on 17 comparisons among single-component interventions showing benefit. Exercise interventions focusing on balance and/or resistance training appear to be clearly preferred over Tai Chi and other forms of exercise (e.g., yoga, aerobic). For exercise programs in general, there is probably variability among people in whether they prefer group or individual delivery, though there was high certainty that individual was preferred over group delivery of balance/resistance programs. Balance/resistance exercise may be preferred over education, though the evidence was low certainty. There was low certainty for a slight preference for education over cognitive-behavioral therapy, and group education may be preferred over individual education. To prevent falls among community-dwelling older adults, evidence is most certain for benefit, at least over 1-2 years, from supervised, long-duration balance/resistance and group Tai Chi interventions, whole-body vibration, high-intensity/dose education or cognitive-behavioral therapy, and interventions of comprehensive multifactorial assessment with targeted treatment plus HHA, HHA plus exercise, or education provided to everyone. Adding other interventions to exercise does not appear to substantially increase benefits. Overall, effects appear most applicable to those with elevated fall risk. Choice among effective interventions that are available may best depend on individual patient preferences, though when implementing new balance/resistance programs delivering individual over group sessions when feasible may be most acceptable. Data on more patient-important outcomes including fall-related fractures and adverse effects would be beneficial, as would studies focusing on equity-deserving populations and on programs delivered virtually. Not registered.

Pillay J ，Gaudet LA ，Saba S ，Vandermeer B ，Ashiq AR ，Wingert A ，Hartling L ... -  《Systematic Reviews》

Association of 3-year change in frailty index with risk of all-cause mortality among older Chinese population: a national cohort study.

Evidence on the association of dynamic change in frailty index (FI) with risk of all-cause mortality in the older Chinese population is limited. This study aimed to explore the association of 3-year change in FI with risk of all-cause mortality in an older Chinese population. We analyzed the data of 4969 participants from the Chinese Longitudinal Healthy Longevity Survey. The primary outcome was all-cause mortality, which was a binary variable and defined as completed data and censored data. Cox proportional-hazard models were used to assess the association of 3-year change in FI with risk of all-cause mortality by using hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Subgroup analyses were conducted to explore the association of 3-year change in FI with risk of all-cause mortality. Additionally, a restricted cubic spline analysis was also conducted to describe the dose-response association. During a median of 4.08 years of follow-up, deaths were observed in 1388 participants. We observed a 1.27-fold higher risk of all-cause mortality with increase in FI ≥ 0.045 versus change in FI < 0.015 (HR = 2.27, 95% CI: 1.89-2.73). Similar significant associations were observed in the subgroup analyses by age, sex, and residence at baseline. Additionally, a nonlinear dose-response association of 3-year change in FI with risk of all-cause mortality was observed (P overall < 0.001 and P nonlinear < 0.001). Excessive increase in FI was positively associated with an increased risk for all-cause mortality. Approaches to reducing FI may be of great significance in improving the health of older Chinese individuals.

Liu D ，Ma Q ，Zuo M ，Niu Y ，Wang J ，Yan G ... -  《BMC Geriatrics》