Periprostatic fat magnetic resonance imaging based radiomics nomogram for predicting biochemical recurrence-free survival in patients with non-metastatic prostate cancer after radical prostatectomy.

To build and validate a periprostatic fat magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) based radiomics nomogram for prediction of biochemical recurrence-free survival (bRFS) of patients with non-metastatic prostate cancer (PCa) receiving radical prostatectomy (RP). A retrospective study was conducted on 356 patients with non-metastatic PCa who underwent preoperative mpMRI followed by RP treatment at our institution. Radiomic features were extracted from both intratumoral region and the periprostatic fat region, which were segmented on images obtained through T2-weighted imaging (T2WI) and apparent-diffusion coefficient (ADC) imaging. Three radiomics models were developed by applying the Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression, followed by Cox risk regression to construct a combined radiomics-clinical model by integrating the optimal radiomics score and clinicopathological risk factors to draw a nomogram. The predictive performance was evaluated using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, Kaplan-Meier analysis and calibration curves. One hundred and twenty-one patients (33.98%) experienced biochemical recurrence. ROC analyses showed that the Area Under the Curve (AUC) of the periprostatic fat-intratumoral radiomics model demonstrated the highest AUC at 0.921 (95%CI, 0.857-0.981), 0.875 (95%CI, 0.763-0.950), 0.854 (95%CI, 0.706-0.923) for 1-year, 3-years and 5-years bRFS. Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that Pathological T stage, ISUP grading group and Positive surgical margin were independent prognostic factors for predicting bRFS. A radiomics-clinical nomogram based on these clinical predictors and periprostatic fat-intratumoral radiomics score was constructed. Kaplan-Meier analyses showed that radiomics-clinical nomogram was significantly related with survival of PCa (P < 0.001); and calibration curves revealed the predicted and observed survival probability of 1-year, 3-year and 5-year bRFS had high degree of consistency in the training and validation group. The radiomics-clinical nomogram showed a significant improvement than the clinical model for 1-year (AUC, 0.944; 95%CI, 0.912-0.990 vs. AUC, 0.839; 95%CI, 0.661-0.928; P = 0.009), 3-year (AUC, 0.864; 95%CI, 0.772-0.969 vs. AUC, 0.776; 95%CI, 0.602-0.872; P = 0.008), and 5-year bRFS (AUC, 0.907; 95%CI, 0.836-0.982 vs. AUC, 0.819; 95%CI, 0.687-0.915; P = 0.027). This study developed and validated the radiomics-clinical nomogram for the prediction of bRFS in non-metastatic PCa patients underwent RP.

Wu XH ，Ke ZB ，Chen ZJ ，Liu WQ ，Xue YT ，Chen SH ，Chen DN ，Zheng QS ，Xue XY ，Wei Y ，Xu N ... -  《BMC CANCER》

Comparison of Two Modern Survival Prediction Tools, SORG-MLA and METSSS, in Patients With Symptomatic Long-bone Metastases Who Underwent Local Treatment With Surgery Followed by Radiotherapy and With Radiotherapy Alone.

Survival estimation for patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases ideally should be made before a type of local treatment has already been determined. Currently available survival prediction tools, however, were generated using data from patients treated either operatively or with local radiation alone, raising concerns about whether they would generalize well to all patients presenting for assessment. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine-learning algorithm (SORG-MLA), trained with institution-based data of surgically treated patients, and the Metastases location, Elderly, Tumor primary, Sex, Sickness/comorbidity, and Site of radiotherapy model (METSSS), trained with registry-based data of patients treated with radiotherapy alone, are two of the most recently developed survival prediction models, but they have not been tested on patients whose local treatment strategy is not yet decided. (1) Which of these two survival prediction models performed better in a mixed cohort made up both of patients who received local treatment with surgery followed by radiotherapy and who had radiation alone for symptomatic bone metastases? (2) Which model performed better among patients whose local treatment consisted of only palliative radiotherapy? (3) Are laboratory values used by SORG-MLA, which are not included in METSSS, independently associated with survival after controlling for predictions made by METSSS? Between 2010 and 2018, we provided local treatment for 2113 adult patients with skeletal metastases in the extremities at an urban tertiary referral academic medical center using one of two strategies: (1) surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy or (2) palliative radiotherapy alone. Every patient's survivorship status was ascertained either by their medical records or the national death registry from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Administration. After applying a priori designated exclusion criteria, 91% (1920) were analyzed here. Among them, 48% (920) of the patients were female, and the median (IQR) age was 62 years (53 to 70 years). Lung was the most common primary tumor site (41% [782]), and 59% (1128) of patients had other skeletal metastases in addition to the treated lesion(s). In general, the indications for surgery were the presence of a complete pathologic fracture or an impending pathologic fracture, defined as having a Mirels score of ≥ 9, in patients with an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification of less than or equal to IV and who were considered fit for surgery. The indications for radiotherapy were relief of pain, local tumor control, prevention of skeletal-related events, and any combination of the above. In all, 84% (1610) of the patients received palliative radiotherapy alone as local treatment for the target lesion(s), and 16% (310) underwent surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy. Neither METSSS nor SORG-MLA was used at the point of care to aid clinical decision-making during the treatment period. Survival was retrospectively estimated by these two models to test their potential for providing survival probabilities. We first compared SORG to METSSS in the entire population. Then, we repeated the comparison in patients who received local treatment with palliative radiation alone. We assessed model performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration analysis, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The AUROC measures discrimination, which is the ability to distinguish patients with the event of interest (such as death at a particular time point) from those without. AUROC typically ranges from 0.5 to 1.0, with 0.5 indicating random guessing and 1.0 a perfect prediction, and in general, an AUROC of ≥ 0.7 indicates adequate discrimination for clinical use. Calibration refers to the agreement between the predicted outcomes (in this case, survival probabilities) and the actual outcomes, with a perfect calibration curve having an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1. A positive intercept indicates that the actual survival is generally underestimated by the prediction model, and a negative intercept suggests the opposite (overestimation). When comparing models, an intercept closer to 0 typically indicates better calibration. Calibration can also be summarized as log(O:E), the logarithm scale of the ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) survivors. A log(O:E) > 0 signals an underestimation (the observed survival is greater than the predicted survival); and a log(O:E) < 0 indicates the opposite (the observed survival is lower than the predicted survival). A model with a log(O:E) closer to 0 is generally considered better calibrated. The Brier score is the mean squared difference between the model predictions and the observed outcomes, and it ranges from 0 (best prediction) to 1 (worst prediction). The Brier score captures both discrimination and calibration, and it is considered a measure of overall model performance. In Brier score analysis, the "null model" assigns a predicted probability equal to the prevalence of the outcome and represents a model that adds no new information. A prediction model should achieve a Brier score at least lower than the null-model Brier score to be considered as useful. The DCA was developed as a method to determine whether using a model to inform treatment decisions would do more good than harm. It plots the net benefit of making decisions based on the model's predictions across all possible risk thresholds (or cost-to-benefit ratios) in relation to the two default strategies of treating all or no patients. The care provider can decide on an acceptable risk threshold for the proposed treatment in an individual and assess the corresponding net benefit to determine whether consulting with the model is superior to adopting the default strategies. Finally, we examined whether laboratory data, which were not included in the METSSS model, would have been independently associated with survival after controlling for the METSSS model's predictions by using the multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Between the two models, only SORG-MLA achieved adequate discrimination (an AUROC of > 0.7) in the entire cohort (of patients treated operatively or with radiation alone) and in the subgroup of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy alone. SORG-MLA outperformed METSSS by a wide margin on discrimination, calibration, and Brier score analyses in not only the entire cohort but also the subgroup of patients whose local treatment consisted of radiotherapy alone. In both the entire cohort and the subgroup, DCA demonstrated that SORG-MLA provided more net benefit compared with the two default strategies (of treating all or no patients) and compared with METSSS when risk thresholds ranged from 0.2 to 0.9 at both 90 days and 1 year, indicating that using SORG-MLA as a decision-making aid was beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting for treatment was 0.2 to 0.9. Higher albumin, lower alkaline phosphatase, lower calcium, higher hemoglobin, lower international normalized ratio, higher lymphocytes, lower neutrophils, lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lower platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, higher sodium, and lower white blood cells were independently associated with better 1-year and overall survival after adjusting for the predictions made by METSSS. Based on these discoveries, clinicians might choose to consult SORG-MLA instead of METSSS for survival estimation in patients with long-bone metastases presenting for evaluation of local treatment. Basing a treatment decision on the predictions of SORG-MLA could be beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting to undergo a particular treatment strategy ranged from 0.2 to 0.9. Future studies might investigate relevant laboratory items when constructing or refining a survival estimation model because these data demonstrated prognostic value independent of the predictions of the METSSS model, and future studies might also seek to keep these models up to date using data from diverse, contemporary patients undergoing both modern operative and nonoperative treatments. Level III, diagnostic study.

Lee CC ，Chen CW ，Yen HK ，Lin YP ，Lai CY ，Wang JL ，Groot OQ ，Janssen SJ ，Schwab JH ，Hsu FM ，Lin WH ... -  《-》

Evaluation of Risk Factors, and Development and Validation of Prognostic Prediction Models for Distant Metastasis in Patients With Rectal Cancer: A Study Based on the SEER Database and a Chinese Population.

Zhang H ，Wang H ，Yao Y ，Liu L ，Feng F ，Li H ，Sun C ... -  《-》

Multiphases DCE-MRI Radiomics Nomogram for Preoperative Prediction of Lymphovascular Invasion in Invasive Breast Cancer.

Dynamic contrast-enhanced magnetic resonance imaging (DCE-MRI) radiomics had been used to evaluate lymphovascular invasion (LVI) in patients with breast cancer. However, no studies had explored the associations between features from delayed phase as well as multiphases DCE-MRI and the LVI status. Thus, we aimed to develop an efficient nomogram based on multiphases DCE-MRI to predict the LVI status in invasive (IBC) breast cancer patients. A retrospective analysis was conducted on preoperative clinical, pathological, and DCE-MRI data of 173 breast cancer patients. All patients were randomly assigned into training set (n=121) and validation set (n=52) in 7:3 ratio. The clinical, pathologic, and conventional MRI characteristics were then subjected to univariate and multivariate logistic regression analysis, and the clinical risk factors with P < 0.05 in the multivariate logistic regression were used to build clinical models. Different single-phase models (early phase, peak phase, and terminal phase), as well as a multiphases model integrating radiomics features from multiple phases, were established. Furthermore, a preoperative radiomics nomogram model was constructed by combining the rad-score of the multiphases model with clinicopathologic independent risk factors. Finally, the performance of the multiphases model, clinical model, and rad-score was compared using receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, area under the curve (AUC) values, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The clinical utility of the rad-score was evaluated using calibration curves, and Delong test was used to compare the differences in AUC values among the different models. The axillary lymph nodes (ALN) status and Ki-67 had been identified as clinicopathologic independent predictors and a clinical model had been constructed. Image features that were extracted from the terminal phase of the DCE-MRI exhibited notably superior predictive performances compared to features from the other single phases. Particularly, in the multiphases model, terminal phase features were identified as potentially providing more predictive information. Among the nine features that were found to be associated with LVI in the multiphase model, one was derived from the early phase, two from the peak phase, and six from the terminal phase, indicating that terminal phase features contributed significantly more information towards predicting LVI. Evaluation of the nomogram performance revealed promising results in both the training set (AUCs: clinical model vs. multiphase model vs. nomogram=0.734 vs. 0.840 vs. 0.876) and the validation set (AUCs: clinical model vs. multiphase model vs. nomogram=0.765 vs. 0.753 vs. 0.832). The DCE-MRI-based radiomics model demonstrated utility in predicting LVI status, features of the terminal phase offered more valuable information particularly. The preoperative radiomics nomogram enhanced the diagnostic capability of identifying LVI status in IBC patients, and might aid clinicians in making personalized treatment decisions.

Ma Q ，Lu X ，Chen Q ，Gong H ，Lei J ... -  《-》

Development and Validation of a Biparametric MRI Deep Learning Radiomics Model with Clinical Characteristics for Predicting Perineural Invasion in Patients with Prostate Cancer.

Perineural invasion (PNI) is an important prognostic biomarker for prostate cancer (PCa). This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model integrating biparametric MRI-based deep learning radiomics and clinical characteristics for the non-invasive prediction of PNI in patients with PCa. In this prospective study, 557 PCa patients who underwent preoperative MRI and radical prostatectomy were recruited and randomly divided into the training and the validation cohorts at a ratio of 7:3. Clinical model for predicting PNI was constructed by univariate and multivariate regression analyses on various clinical indicators, followed by logistic regression. Radiomics and deep learning methods were used to develop different MRI-based radiomics and deep learning models. Subsequently, the clinical, radiomics, and deep learning signatures were combined to develop the integrated deep learning-radiomics-clinical model (DLRC). The performance of the models was assessed by plotting the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves and precision-recall (PR) curves, as well as calculating the area under the ROC and PR curves (ROC-AUC and PR-AUC). The calibration curve and decision curve were used to evaluate the model's goodness of fit and clinical benefit. The DLRC model demonstrated the highest performance in both the training and the validation cohorts, with ROC-AUCs of 0.914 and 0.848, respectively, and PR-AUCs of 0.948 and 0.926, respectively. The DLRC model showed good calibration and clinical benefit in both cohorts. The DLRC model, which integrated clinical, radiomics, and deep learning signatures, can serve as a robust tool for predicting PNI in patients with PCa, thus aiding in developing effective treatment strategies.

Zhang YY ，Mao HM ，Wei CG ，Chen T ，Zhao WL ，Chen LY ，Shen JK ，Guo WL ... -  《-》