Management of monochorionic diamniotic twin gestation affected by Type-II selective fetal growth restriction: cost-effectiveness analysis.
Monochorionic twin gestations affected by Type-II selective fetal growth restriction (sFGR) are at increased risk of intrauterine fetal demise, extreme preterm birth, severe neurodevelopmental impairment (NDI) and neonatal death of one or both twins. In the absence of a consensus on the optimal management strategy, we chose to evaluate which strategy was cost-effective in the setting of Type-II sFGR.
A decision-analytic model was used to compare expectant management (EM), bipolar cord occlusion (BCO), radiofrequency ablation (RFA) and fetoscopic laser photocoagulation (FLP) for a hypothetical cohort of 10 000 people with a monochorionic diamniotic twin pregnancy affected by Type-II sFGR. Probabilities and utilities were derived from the literature. Costs were derived from the Healthcare Cost and Utilization Project and adjusted to 2023 USD. The analytic horizon, taken from the perspective of the pregnant patient, extended throughout the life of the child or children. An incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 50 000 USD per quality-adjusted life year defined the willingness-to-pay threshold. One-way and probabilistic sensitivity analysis was also performed.
For base-case estimates, RFA was the most cost-effective strategy compared with all of the other interventions included, with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of 14 243 USD per quality-adjusted life year. One-way sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the utilities assigned to fetal demise and severe NDI, as well as the costs of preterm birth before 32 weeks, most strongly impacted the model outcomes. On probabilistic sensitivity analysis, RFA was the most cost-effective strategy in 78% of runs, followed by BCO at 20%, EM at 2% and FLP in 0% of runs. When compared with EM, RFA led to 58 fewer births before 28 weeks' gestation, 273 fewer cases of severe NDI and 22 more deliveries after 32 weeks. When compared with FLP, RFA resulted in 259 fewer cases of severe NDI and 3177 more births after 32 weeks. When compared with BCO, RFA resulted in 1786 more neurologically intact neonates and 34 fewer cases of severe NDI.
On base-case analysis, RFA was found to be the most cost-effective strategy in the management of monochorionic diamniotic twin pregnancies affected by Type-II sFGR. However, these findings were not robust on sensitivity analysis, indicating the potential benefit of BCO and EM. In the absence of large clinical trials, these data should not be taken to guide management. Future studies should evaluate management strategies for Type-II sFGR related to long-term neonatal outcomes, inclusive of quality-of-life indicators, in a prospective multicenter cohort. © 2024 The Author(s). Ultrasound in Obstetrics & Gynecology published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd on behalf of International Society of Ultrasound in Obstetrics and Gynecology.
Morgan JC
，Rios J
，Kahl T
，Prasad M
，Rausch A
，Longman R
，Mehra S
，Shaaban A
，Premkumar A
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Role of gestational age at time of placental laser surgery in outcomes of twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome.
There are conflicting data on whether fetoscopic laser photocoagulation of placental anastomoses (FLP) for treating twin-to-twin transfusion syndrome (TTTS) is associated with lower rates of overall survival. The objective of this study is to characterize survival and other associated morbidity after FLP across gestational ages of FLP.
This is a secondary analysis of prospectively collected data on patients with monochorionic-diamniotic twins that had FLP for TTTS at two centers between 2011 and 2022. Patients were divided into gestational age epochs for FLP before 18 wks, 18 0/7 - 19 6/7 wks, 20 0/7 - 21 6/7 wks, 22 0/7 - 23 6/7 wks, 24 0/7 - 25 6/7 wks and after 26 wks. Demographic characteristics, sonographic characteristics of TTTS and operative characteristics were compared across the gestational age epochs. Outcomes including overall survival, preterm delivery, preterm prelabor rupture of membranes (PPROM), intrauterine fetal demise (IUFD) and neonatal demise (NND) were also compared across gestational age epochs. Multivariate analysis was performed by fitting logistic regression models for these outcomes. Kaplan-Mejer curves were constructed to compare the interval from PPROM to delivery for each gestational age epoch.
There were 768 patients that met inclusion criteria. The dual survival rate was 61.3% for FLP performed prior to 18 weeks compared to 78.0% - 86.7% across later gestational age epochs. This appears to be related to increased rates of donor IUFD following FLP performed before, versus after 18 weeks (28.0% vs. 9.3% - 14.1%). Rates of recipient IUFD/NND and donor NND were similar regardless of gestational age of FLP. Rates of PPROM were higher for earlier FLP, ranging from 45.6% for FLP before 18 weeks to 11.9% for FLP at 24 - 26 weeks gestational age. However, the gestational age of delivery was similar across gestational age epochs with a median of 31.7 weeks. In multivariate analysis, donor loss was independently associated with FLP before 18 weeks after adjusting for selective fetal growth restriction, Quintero stage and other covariates. PPROM and PTD were also associated with FLP before 18 weeks after adjusting for cervical length, placental location, trocar size, laser energy and amnioinfusion.
FLP performed at earlier gestational ages is associated with lower overall survival, which is driven by higher risk of donor IUFD, as opposed to differences in PPROM or PTD. Counseling regarding survival should account for gestational age of presentation. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.
Brock CO
，Backley S
，Snowise S
，Bergh EP
，Johnson A
，Fisher J
，Espinoza J
，Eyerly-Webb S
，Juckel N
，Nisius E
，Hernandez-Andrade EA
，Papanna R
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Comparison of Two Modern Survival Prediction Tools, SORG-MLA and METSSS, in Patients With Symptomatic Long-bone Metastases Who Underwent Local Treatment With Surgery Followed by Radiotherapy and With Radiotherapy Alone.
Survival estimation for patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases ideally should be made before a type of local treatment has already been determined. Currently available survival prediction tools, however, were generated using data from patients treated either operatively or with local radiation alone, raising concerns about whether they would generalize well to all patients presenting for assessment. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine-learning algorithm (SORG-MLA), trained with institution-based data of surgically treated patients, and the Metastases location, Elderly, Tumor primary, Sex, Sickness/comorbidity, and Site of radiotherapy model (METSSS), trained with registry-based data of patients treated with radiotherapy alone, are two of the most recently developed survival prediction models, but they have not been tested on patients whose local treatment strategy is not yet decided.
(1) Which of these two survival prediction models performed better in a mixed cohort made up both of patients who received local treatment with surgery followed by radiotherapy and who had radiation alone for symptomatic bone metastases? (2) Which model performed better among patients whose local treatment consisted of only palliative radiotherapy? (3) Are laboratory values used by SORG-MLA, which are not included in METSSS, independently associated with survival after controlling for predictions made by METSSS?
Between 2010 and 2018, we provided local treatment for 2113 adult patients with skeletal metastases in the extremities at an urban tertiary referral academic medical center using one of two strategies: (1) surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy or (2) palliative radiotherapy alone. Every patient's survivorship status was ascertained either by their medical records or the national death registry from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Administration. After applying a priori designated exclusion criteria, 91% (1920) were analyzed here. Among them, 48% (920) of the patients were female, and the median (IQR) age was 62 years (53 to 70 years). Lung was the most common primary tumor site (41% [782]), and 59% (1128) of patients had other skeletal metastases in addition to the treated lesion(s). In general, the indications for surgery were the presence of a complete pathologic fracture or an impending pathologic fracture, defined as having a Mirels score of ≥ 9, in patients with an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification of less than or equal to IV and who were considered fit for surgery. The indications for radiotherapy were relief of pain, local tumor control, prevention of skeletal-related events, and any combination of the above. In all, 84% (1610) of the patients received palliative radiotherapy alone as local treatment for the target lesion(s), and 16% (310) underwent surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy. Neither METSSS nor SORG-MLA was used at the point of care to aid clinical decision-making during the treatment period. Survival was retrospectively estimated by these two models to test their potential for providing survival probabilities. We first compared SORG to METSSS in the entire population. Then, we repeated the comparison in patients who received local treatment with palliative radiation alone. We assessed model performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration analysis, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The AUROC measures discrimination, which is the ability to distinguish patients with the event of interest (such as death at a particular time point) from those without. AUROC typically ranges from 0.5 to 1.0, with 0.5 indicating random guessing and 1.0 a perfect prediction, and in general, an AUROC of ≥ 0.7 indicates adequate discrimination for clinical use. Calibration refers to the agreement between the predicted outcomes (in this case, survival probabilities) and the actual outcomes, with a perfect calibration curve having an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1. A positive intercept indicates that the actual survival is generally underestimated by the prediction model, and a negative intercept suggests the opposite (overestimation). When comparing models, an intercept closer to 0 typically indicates better calibration. Calibration can also be summarized as log(O:E), the logarithm scale of the ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) survivors. A log(O:E) > 0 signals an underestimation (the observed survival is greater than the predicted survival); and a log(O:E) < 0 indicates the opposite (the observed survival is lower than the predicted survival). A model with a log(O:E) closer to 0 is generally considered better calibrated. The Brier score is the mean squared difference between the model predictions and the observed outcomes, and it ranges from 0 (best prediction) to 1 (worst prediction). The Brier score captures both discrimination and calibration, and it is considered a measure of overall model performance. In Brier score analysis, the "null model" assigns a predicted probability equal to the prevalence of the outcome and represents a model that adds no new information. A prediction model should achieve a Brier score at least lower than the null-model Brier score to be considered as useful. The DCA was developed as a method to determine whether using a model to inform treatment decisions would do more good than harm. It plots the net benefit of making decisions based on the model's predictions across all possible risk thresholds (or cost-to-benefit ratios) in relation to the two default strategies of treating all or no patients. The care provider can decide on an acceptable risk threshold for the proposed treatment in an individual and assess the corresponding net benefit to determine whether consulting with the model is superior to adopting the default strategies. Finally, we examined whether laboratory data, which were not included in the METSSS model, would have been independently associated with survival after controlling for the METSSS model's predictions by using the multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses.
Between the two models, only SORG-MLA achieved adequate discrimination (an AUROC of > 0.7) in the entire cohort (of patients treated operatively or with radiation alone) and in the subgroup of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy alone. SORG-MLA outperformed METSSS by a wide margin on discrimination, calibration, and Brier score analyses in not only the entire cohort but also the subgroup of patients whose local treatment consisted of radiotherapy alone. In both the entire cohort and the subgroup, DCA demonstrated that SORG-MLA provided more net benefit compared with the two default strategies (of treating all or no patients) and compared with METSSS when risk thresholds ranged from 0.2 to 0.9 at both 90 days and 1 year, indicating that using SORG-MLA as a decision-making aid was beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting for treatment was 0.2 to 0.9. Higher albumin, lower alkaline phosphatase, lower calcium, higher hemoglobin, lower international normalized ratio, higher lymphocytes, lower neutrophils, lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lower platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, higher sodium, and lower white blood cells were independently associated with better 1-year and overall survival after adjusting for the predictions made by METSSS.
Based on these discoveries, clinicians might choose to consult SORG-MLA instead of METSSS for survival estimation in patients with long-bone metastases presenting for evaluation of local treatment. Basing a treatment decision on the predictions of SORG-MLA could be beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting to undergo a particular treatment strategy ranged from 0.2 to 0.9. Future studies might investigate relevant laboratory items when constructing or refining a survival estimation model because these data demonstrated prognostic value independent of the predictions of the METSSS model, and future studies might also seek to keep these models up to date using data from diverse, contemporary patients undergoing both modern operative and nonoperative treatments.
Level III, diagnostic study.
Lee CC
，Chen CW
，Yen HK
，Lin YP
，Lai CY
，Wang JL
，Groot OQ
，Janssen SJ
，Schwab JH
，Hsu FM
，Lin WH
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ResearchGate
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