Disparities in PrEP use and unmet need across PEPFAR-supported programs: doubling down on prevention to put people first and end AIDS as a public health threat by 2030.
In 2023, an estimated 1.3 million people newly acquired HIV. In the same year, 3.5 million individuals received pre-exposure prophylaxis (PrEP), falling short of the UNAIDS target of 21.2 million by 2025. With over 90% of global PrEP programming supported by PEPFAR, a better understanding of disparities in PrEP provision is needed to inform PEPFAR's approach to reach and deliver prevention services and achieve UNAIDS 95-95-95 goals in all populations by 2025. The objective of this paper is to assess unmet PrEP need in PEPFAR-supported countries.
We analyzed FY2023 Monitoring, Evaluation, and Reporting (MER) results from 48 PEPFAR-supported countries to calculate PrEP-to-need ratios (PnR) by geography and population. PnR offers an ecological measure to identify disparities and missed opportunities for PrEP programming. PnR was calculated as the ratio of PrEP users to the number of positive HIV tests. PrEP users are defined through new initiations (PrEP_NEW) and re-initiations or continuation (PrEP_CT). HTS_TST_POS measures the number of positive HIV tests and was used as a proxy for new diagnoses. PnR was also calculated using Naomi-estimated 2023 HIV incidence, where available. A higher PnR indicates more PrEP users relative to PrEP need in a population.
In FY23, 1,760,888 people initiated PrEP, and 1,736,144 people tested positive for HIV. PnR ranged from 0.12 (India) to 6.46 (Brazil), and 19 (40%) countries had fewer PrEP users than positive HIV tests (PnR <1.0). By population, people 15-24 years old, people who inject drugs, and transgender populations had the highest median PnR. When examining estimated HIV incidence, Mozambique and South Africa reported lower than average PnR and higher than average HIV incidence.
PrEP use relative to population need varied greatly by country and subpopulation across PEPFAR programs, suggesting a need for greater advocacy, inclusivity, accessibility, and integrated prevention programming. PnR may be a useful indicator of population PrEP coverage and unmet need, and can inform effective, data-driven, and person-centered PEPFAR prevention programming and policies. Tailoring PrEP scale-up strategies by age, sex, key population, and geography is crucial to achieving UNAIDS targets and ending the AIDS epidemic as a public health threat for all by 2030.
Mukherjee TI
，Yep M
，Koluch M
，Abayneh SA
，Eyassu G
，Manfredini E
，Herbst S
... -
《-》
Global, regional, and national burden of HIV/AIDS, 1990-2021, and forecasts to 2050, for 204 countries and territories: the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.
As set out in Sustainable Development Goal 3.3, the target date for ending the HIV epidemic as a public health threat is 2030. Therefore, there is a crucial need to evaluate current epidemiological trends and monitor global progress towards HIV incidence and mortality reduction goals. In this analysis, we assess the current burden of HIV in 204 countries and territories and forecast HIV incidence, prevalence, and mortality up to 2050 to allow countries to plan for a sustained response with an increasing number of people living with HIV globally.
We used the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 analytical framework to compute age-sex-specific HIV mortality, incidence, and prevalence estimates for 204 countries and territories (1990-2021). We aimed to analyse all available data sources, including data on the provision of HIV programmes reported to UNAIDS, published literature on mortality among people on antiretroviral therapy (ART) identified by a systematic review, household surveys, sentinel surveillance antenatal care clinic data, vital registration data, and country-level case report data. We calibrated a mechanistic simulation of HIV infection and natural history to available data to estimate HIV burden from 1990 to 2021 and generated forecasts to 2050 through projection of all simulation inputs into the future. Historical outcomes (1990-2021) were simulated at the 1000-draw level to support propagation of uncertainty and reporting of uncertainty intervals (UIs). Our approach to forecasting utilised the transmission rate as the basis for projection, along with new rate-of-change projections of ART coverage. Additionally, we introduced two new metrics to our reporting: prevalence of unsuppressed viraemia (PUV), which represents the proportion of the population without a suppressed level of HIV (viral load <1000 copies per mL), and period lifetime probability of HIV acquisition, which quantifies the hypothetical probability of acquiring HIV for a synthetic cohort, a simulated population that is aged from birth to death through the set of age-specific incidence rates of a given time period.
Global new HIV infections decreased by 21·9% (95% UI 13·1-28·8) between 2010 and 2021, from 2·11 million (2·02-2·25) in 2010 to 1·65 million (1·48-1·82) in 2021. HIV-related deaths decreased by 39·7% (33·7-44·5), from 1·19 million (1·07-1·37) in 2010 to 718 000 (669 000-785 000) in 2021. The largest declines in both HIV incidence and mortality were in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia. However, super-regions including central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia, and north Africa and the Middle East experienced increasing HIV incidence and mortality rates. The number of people living with HIV reached 40·0 million (38·0-42·4) in 2021, an increase from 29·5 million (28·1-31·0) in 2010. The lifetime probability of HIV acquisition remains highest in the sub-Saharan Africa super-region, where it declined from its 1995 peak of 21·8% (20·1-24·2) to 8·7% (7·5-10·7) in 2021. Four of the seven GBD super-regions had a lifetime probability of less than 1% in 2021. In 2021, sub-Saharan Africa had the highest PUV of 999·9 (857·4-1154·2) per 100 000 population, but this was a 64·5% (58·8-69·4) reduction in PUV from 2003 to 2021. In the same period, PUV increased in central Europe, eastern Europe, and central Asia by 116·1% (8·0-218·2). Our forecasts predict a continued global decline in HIV incidence and mortality, with the number of people living with HIV peaking at 44·4 million (40·7-49·8) by 2039, followed by a gradual decrease. In 2025, we projected 1·43 million (1·29-1·59) new HIV infections and 615 000 (567 000-680 000) HIV-related deaths, suggesting that the interim 2025 targets for reducing these figures are unlikely to be achieved. Furthermore, our forecasted results indicate that few countries will meet the 2030 target for reducing HIV incidence and HIV-related deaths by 90% from 2010 levels.
Our forecasts indicate that continuation of current levels of HIV control are not likely to attain ambitious incidence and mortality reduction targets by 2030, and more than 40 million people globally will continue to require lifelong ART for decades into the future. The global community will need to show sustained and substantive efforts to make the progress needed to reach and sustain the end of AIDS as a public threat.
The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases.
GBD 2021 HIV Collaborators
《Lancet HIV》
ResearchGate
(全网免费下载)
钛学术
(全网免费下载)
