Nomogram predicting survival as a selection criterion for postmastectomy radiotherapy in patients with T1 to T2 breast cancer with 1 to 3 positive lymph nodes.
The role of postmastectomy radiotherapy (PMRT) in women with pT1-T2N1 breast cancer is controversial. The authors developed a nomogram that was predictive for overall survival (OS) and identified patients who derived no benefit from PMRT.
The authors retrospectively evaluated 4869 patients with pT1-T2N1 breast cancer who were treated with mastectomy between 2000 and 2014 in 11 Chinese hospitals. Rates of locoregional recurrence and distant metastasis were calculated using competing risk analysis, and disease-free survival and OS rates were calculated using the Kaplan-Meier method. Based on the risk factors identified from Cox regression analysis in 3298 unirradiated patients, a nomogram predicting OS was developed. The benefit of PMRT was evaluated in different risk groups stratified by the nomogram model.
After a median follow-up of 65.9 months, the 5-year OS, disease-free survival, locoregional recurrence, and distant metastasis rates were 93.3%, 84.3%, 5.2%, and 8.3%, respectively. A total of 1571 patients (32.3%) underwent PMRT. On multivariable analyses, PMRT was found to increase OS significantly (hazard ratio, 0.61; P = .002). An OS prediction nomogram evaluated the effect of age; tumor location; tumor size; positive lymph node ratio; estrogen receptor, progesterone receptor, and human epidermal growth factor receptor 2 status; and treatment with trastuzumab. Based on nomogram scores, the entire patient cohort was classified into 3 risk groups. PMRT significantly improved the OS of patients in the intermediate-risk (P < .001) and high-risk groups (P = .004), but not in the low-risk group (P = .728).
The authors developed a nomogram that is predictive of OS among women with pT1-T2N1 breast cancer after mastectomy. This nomogram may help to select a subgroup of patients with a good prognosis who will not benefit from PMRT.
Tang Y
，Zhang YJ
，Zhang N
，Shi M
，Wen G
，Cheng J
，Wang HM
，Liu M
，Wang XH
，Guo QS
，Wu HF
，Ma CY
，Jin J
，Liu YP
，Song YW
，Fang H
，Ren H
，Wang SL
，Li YX
... -
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Risk-Adapted Postmastectomy Radiotherapy Decision Based on Prognostic Nomogram for pT1-2N1M0 Breast Cancer: A Multicenter Study.
The aim of this study was to develop a widely accepted prognostic nomogram and establish a risk-adapted PMRT strategy based on locoregional recurrence for pT1-2N1M0 breast cancer.
A total of 3,033 patients with pT1-2N1M0 breast cancer treated at 6 participating institutions between 2000 and 2016 were retrospectively reviewed. A nomogram was developed to predicted locoregional recurrence-free survival (LRFS). A propensity score-matched (PSM) analyses was performed in risk-adapted model.
With the median follow-up of 65.0 months, the 5-year overall survival (OS), disease free survival (DFS) and LRFS were 93.0, 84.8, and 93.6%, respectively. There was no significant difference between patients who received PMRT or not for the entire group. A nomogram was developed and validated to estimate the probability of 5-year LRFS based on five independent factors including age, primary tumor site, positive lymph nodes number, pathological T stage, and molecular subtype that were selected by a multivariate analysis of patients who did not receive PMRT in the primary cohort. According to the total nomogram risk scores, the entire patients were classified into low- (40.0%), moderate- (42.4%), and high-risk group (17.6%). The 5-year outcomes were significantly different among these three groups (P<0.001). In low-risk group, patients who received PMRT or not both achieved a favorable OS, DFS, and LRFS. In moderate-risk group, no differences in OS, DFS, and LRFS were observed between PMRT and no PMRT patients. In high-risk group, compared with no PMRT, PMRT resulted in significantly different OS (86.8 vs 83.9%, P = 0.050), DFS (77.2 vs 70.9%, P = 0.049), and LRFS (90.8 vs. 81.6%, P = 0.003). After PSM adjustment, there were no significant differences in OS, DFS, and LRFS in low-risk and moderate-risk groups. However, in the high-risk group, PMRT still resulted in significantly better OS, DFS and improved LRFS.
The proposed nomogram provides an individualized risk estimate of LRFS in patients with pT1-2N1M0 breast cancer. Risk-adapted PMRT for high-risk patients is a viable effective strategy.
Li M
，Yue J
，Wan X
，Hua B
，Yang Q
，Yang P
，Zhang Z
，Pei Q
，Han W
，Xu Y
，Xia X
... -
《Frontiers in Oncology》
ResearchGate
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钛学术
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