Exploration of Geographical Environmental Factors Influencing Regional Population Mortality Patterns in China.
摘要:
The regional population mortality patterns in China exhibit substantial geographical distribution characteristics. This paper aims to explore the impact and mechanisms of geographical environmental factors on regional population mortality patterns. This study first utilized the data from China's Seventh Population Census to obtain mortality patterns for the 31 provincial-level administrative regions. Subsequently, a functional regression method was employed to explore the geographical environmental driving factors of regional mortality patterns. The study provides a detailed explanation of the mechanisms and marginal contributions of key geographical environmental factors at different age groups. (1) The impact of geographical environmental factors on mortality patterns shows distinct phased characteristics. Mortality patterns before the age of 40 years are hardly influenced by geographical environmental factors, with a noticeable impact beginning at ages 40-69 years and reaching the maximum influence after the age of 70 years. (2) In mortality patterns at ages 40-69 years, average altitude have the most substantial impact, followed by extreme low-temperature days and PM2.5 concentration. In mortality patterns at ages 70-94 years, high-temperature days have the greatest influence, followed by the impact of SO2 concentration. (3) In comparisons based on gender, socioeconomic factors, and geographical environmental factors, gender and urban-rural differences have the most significant impact on regional population mortality patterns, followed by the influence of other socioeconomic factors, with geographical environmental factors having a relatively smaller impact.
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DOI:
10.1002/ajhb.24153
被引量:
年份:
1970


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The regional population mortality patterns in China exhibit substantial geographical distribution characteristics. This paper aims to explore the impact and mechanisms of geographical environmental factors on regional population mortality patterns. This study first utilized the data from China's Seventh Population Census to obtain mortality patterns for the 31 provincial-level administrative regions. Subsequently, a functional regression method was employed to explore the geographical environmental driving factors of regional mortality patterns. The study provides a detailed explanation of the mechanisms and marginal contributions of key geographical environmental factors at different age groups. (1) The impact of geographical environmental factors on mortality patterns shows distinct phased characteristics. Mortality patterns before the age of 40 years are hardly influenced by geographical environmental factors, with a noticeable impact beginning at ages 40-69 years and reaching the maximum influence after the age of 70 years. (2) In mortality patterns at ages 40-69 years, average altitude have the most substantial impact, followed by extreme low-temperature days and PM2.5 concentration. In mortality patterns at ages 70-94 years, high-temperature days have the greatest influence, followed by the impact of SO2 concentration. (3) In comparisons based on gender, socioeconomic factors, and geographical environmental factors, gender and urban-rural differences have the most significant impact on regional population mortality patterns, followed by the influence of other socioeconomic factors, with geographical environmental factors having a relatively smaller impact.
被引量: - 发表:1970年 -
Research on social and economic factors influencing regional mortality patterns in China.
Regional population mortality correlates with regional socioeconomic development. This study aimed to identify the key socioeconomic factors influencing mortality patterns in Chinese provinces. Using data from the Seventh Population Census, we analyzed mortality patterns by gender and urban‒rural division in 31 provinces. Using a functional regression model, we assessed the influence of fourteen indicators on mortality patterns. Main findings: (1) China shows notable gender and urban‒rural mortality variations across age groups. Males generally have higher mortality than females, and rural areas experience elevated mortality rates compared to urban areas. Mortality in individuals younger than 40 years is influenced mainly by urban‒rural factors, with gender becoming more noticeable in the 40-84 age group. (2) The substantial marginal impact of socioeconomic factors on mortality patterns generally becomes evident after the age of 45, with less pronounced differences in their impact on early-life mortality patterns. (3) Various factors have age-specific impacts on mortality. Education has a negative effect on mortality in individuals aged 0-29, extending to those aged 30-59 and diminishing in older age groups. Urbanization positively influences the probability of death in individuals aged 45-54 years, while the impact of traffic accidents increases with age. Among elderly people, the effect of socioeconomic variables is smaller, highlighting the intricate and heterogeneous nature of these influences and acknowledging certain limitations.
Li T ,Zhang S ,Li H 《Scientific Reports》
被引量: - 发表:1970年 -
Impact of the 1990 Hong Kong legislation for restriction on sulfur content in fuel.
After the implementation of a regulation restricting sulfur to 0.5% by weight in fuel on July 1, 1990, in Hong Kong, sulfur dioxide (SO2*) levels fell by 45% on average and as much as 80% in the most polluted districts (Hedley et al. 2002). In addition, a reduction of respiratory symptoms and an improvement in bronchial hyperresponsiveness in children were observed (Peters et al. 1996; Wong et al. 1998). A recent time-series study (Hedley et al. 2002) found an immediate reduction in mortality during the cool season at six months after the intervention, followed by an increase in cool-season mortality in the second and third years, suggesting that the reduction in pollution was associated with a delay in mortality. Proportional changes in mortality trends between the 5-year periods before and after the intervention were measured as relative risks and used to assess gains in life expectancy using the life table method (Hedley et al. 2002). To further explore the relation between changes in pollution-related mortality before and after the intervention, our study had three objectives: (1) to evaluate the short-term effects on mortality of changes in the pollutant mix after the Hong Kong sulfur intervention, particularly with changes in the particulate matter (PM) chemical species; (2) to improve the methodology for assessment of the health impact in terms of changes in life expectancy using linear regression models; and (3) to develop an approach for analyzing changes in life expectancy from Poisson regression models. A fourth overarching objective was to determine the relation between short- and long-term benefits due to an improvement in air quality. For an assessment of the short-term effects on mortality due to changes in the pollutant mix, we developed Poisson regression Core Models with natural spline smoothers to control for long-term and seasonal confounding variations in the mortality counts and with covariates to adjust for temperature (T) and relative humidity (RH). We assessed the adequacy of the Core Models by evaluating the results against the Akaike Information Criterion, which stipulates that, at a minimum, partial autocorrelation plots should be between -0.1 and 0.1, and by examining the residual plots to make sure they were free from patterns. We assessed the effects for gaseous pollutants (NO2, SO2, and O3), PM with an aerodynamic diameter < or = 10 microm (PM10), and its chemical species (aluminum [Al], iron [Fe], manganese [Mn], nickel [Ni], vanadium [V], lead [Pb], and zinc [Zn]) using the Core Models, which were developed for the periods 5 years (or 2 years in the case of the sensitivity analysis) before and 5 years after the intervention, as well as in the10-year (or 7-year in the case of the sensitivity analysis) period pre- and post-intervention. We also included an indicator to separate the pre- and post-intervention periods, as well as the product of the indicator with an air pollution concentration variable. The health outcomes were mortality for all natural causes and for cardiovascular and respiratory causes, at all ages and in the 65 years or older age group. To assess the short- and long-term effects, we developed two methods: one using linear regression models reflecting the age-standardized mortality rate D(j) at day j, divided by a reference D(ref); and the other using Poisson regression models with daily mortality counts as the outcome variables. We also used both models to evaluate the relation between outcome variables and daily air pollution concentrations in the current day up to all previous days in the past 3 to 4 years. In the linear regression approach, we adjusted the data for temperature and relative humidity. We then removed season as a potential confounder, or deseasonalized them, by calculating a standard seasonal mortality rate profile, normalized to an annual average of unity, and dividing the mortality rates by this profile. Finally, to correct for long-term trends, we calculated a reference mortality rate D(ref)(j) as a moving average of the corrected and deseasonalized D(j) over the observation window. Then we regressed the outcome variable D(j)/D(ref) on an entire exposure sequence {c(i)} with lags up to 4 years in order to obtain impact coefficient f(i) from the regression model shown below: deltaD(j)/D (ref) = i(max)sigma f(i) c(j - i)(i = 0). The change in life expectancy (LE) for a change of units (deltac) in the concentration of pollutants on T(day)--representing the short interval (i.e., a day)--was calculated from the following equation (deltaL(pop) = average loss in life expectancy of an entire population): deltaL(pop) = -deltac T(day) infinity sigma (j = 0) infinity sigma f(i) (i = 0). In the Poisson regression approach, we fitted a distributed-lag model for exposure to previous days of up to 4 years in order to obtain the cumulative lag effect sigma beta(i). We fit the linear regression model of log(LE*/LE) = gamma(SMR - 1) + alpha to estimate the parameter gamma by gamma, where LE* and LE are life expectancy for an exposed and an unexposed population, respectively, and SMR represents the standardized mortality ratio. The life expectancy change per Ac increase in concentration is LE {exp[gamma delta c(sigma beta(i))]-1}. In our assessment of the changes in pollutant levels, the mean levels of SO2, Ni, and V showed a statistically significant decline, particularly in industrial areas. Ni and V showed the greatest impact on mortality, especially for respiratory diseases in the 5-year pre-intervention period for both the all-ages and 65+ groups among all chemical species. There were decreases in excess risks associated with Ni and V after the intervention, but they were nonsignificant. Using the linear regression approach, with a window of 1095 days (3 years), the losses in life expectancy with a 10-microg/m3 increase in concentrations, using two methods of estimation (one with adjustment for temperature and RH before the regression against pollutants, the other with adjustment for temperature and RH within the regression against pollutants), were 19.2 days (95% CI, 12.5 to 25.9) and 31.4 days (95% CI, 25.6 to 37.2) for PM10; and 19.7 days (95% CI, 15.2 to 24.2) and 12.8 days (95% CI, 8.9 to 16.8) for SO2. The losses in life expectancy in the current study were smaller than the ones implied by Elliott and colleagues (2007) and Pope and colleagues (2002) as expected since the observation window in our study was only 3 years whereas these other studies had windows of 16 years. In particular, the coefficients used by Elliott and colleagues (2007) for windows of 12 and 16 years were non-zero, which suggests that our window of at most 3 years cannot capture the full life expectancy loss and the effects were most likely underestimated. Using the Poisson regression approach, with a window of 1461 days (4 years), we found that a 10-microg/m3 increase in concentration of PM10 was associated with a change in life expectancy of -69 days (95% CI, -140 to 1) and a change of -133 days (95% CI, -172 to -94) for the same increase in SO2. The effect estimates varied as expected according to most variations in the sensitivity analysis model, specifically in terms of the Core Model definition, exposure windows, constraint of the lag effect pattern, and adjustment for smoking prevalence or socioeconomic status. Our results on the excess risks of mortality showed exposure to chemical species to be a health hazard. However, the statistical power was not sufficient to detect the differences between the pre- and post-intervention periods in Hong Kong due to the data limitations (specifically, the chemical species data were available only once every 6 days, and data were not available from some monitoring stations). Further work is needed to develop methods for maximizing the information from the data in order to assess any changes in effects due to the intervention. With complete daily air pollution and mortality data over a long period, time-series analysis methods can be applied to assess the short- and long-term effects of air pollution, in terms of changes in life expectancy. Further work is warranted to assess the duration and pattern of the health effects from an air pollution pulse (i.e., an episode of a rapid rise in air pollution) so as to determine an appropriate length and constraint on the distributed-lag assessment model.
Wong CM ,Rabl A ,Thach TQ ,Chau YK ,Chan KP ,Cowling BJ ,Lai HK ,Lam TH ,McGhee SM ,Anderson HR ,Hedley AJ ... - 《-》
被引量: 7 发表:2012年 -
Multicity study of air pollution and mortality in Latin America (the ESCALA study).
The ESCALA* project (Estudio de Salud y Contaminación del Aire en Latinoamérica) is an HEI-funded study that aims to examine the association between exposure to outdoor air pollution and mortality in nine Latin American cities, using a common analytic framework to obtain comparable and updated information on the effects of air pollution on several causes of death in different age groups. This report summarizes the work conducted between 2006 and 2009, describes the methodologic issues addressed during project development, and presents city-specific results of meta-analyses and meta-regression analyses. The ESCALA project involved three teams of investigators responsible for collection and analysis of city-specific air pollution and mortality data from three different countries. The teams designed five different protocols to standardize the methods of data collection and analysis that would be used to evaluate the effects of air pollution on mortality (see Appendices B-F). By following the same protocols, the investigators could directly compare the results among cities. The analysis was conducted in two stages. The first stage included analyses of all-natural-cause and cause-specific mortality related to particulate matter < or = 10 pm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10) and to ozone (O3) in cities of Brazil, Chile, and México. Analyses for PM10 and O3 were also stratified by age group and O3 analyses were stratified by season. Generalized linear models (GLM) in Poisson regression were used to fit the time-series data. Time trends and seasonality were modeled using natural splines with 3, 6, 9, or 12 degrees of freedom (df) per year. Temperature and humidity were also modeled using natural splines, initially with 3 or 6 df, and then with degrees of freedom chosen on the basis of residual diagnostics (i.e., partial autocorrelation function [PACF], periodograms, and a Q-Q plot) (Appendix H, available on the HEI Web site). Indicator variables for day-of-week and holidays were used to account for short-term cyclic fluctuations. To assess the association between exposure to air pollution and risk of death, the PM10 and O3 data were fit using distributed lag models (DLMs). These models are based on findings indicating that the health effects associated with air pollutant concentrations on a given day may accumulate over several subsequent days. Each DLM measured the cumulative effect of a pollutant concentration on a given day (day 0) and that day's contribution to the effect of that pollutant on multiple subsequent (lagged) days. For this study, exposure lags of up to 3, 5, and 10 days were explored. However, only the results of the DLMs using a 3-day lag (DLM 0-3) are presented in this report because we found a decreasing association with mortality in various age-cause groups for increasing lag effects from 3 to 5 days for both PM10 and O3. The potential modifying effect of socioeconomic status (SES) on the association of PM10 or O3 concentration and mortality was also explored in four cities: Mexico City, Rio de Janeiro, São Paulo, and Santiago. The methodology for developing a common SES index is presented in the report. The second stage included meta-analyses and metaregression. During this stage, the associations between mortality and air pollution were compared among cities to evaluate the presence of heterogeneity and to explore city-level variables that might explain this heterogeneity. Meta-analyses were conducted to combine mortality effect estimates across cities and to evaluate the presence of heterogeneity among city results, whereas meta-regression models were used to explore variables that might explain the heterogeneity among cities in mortality risks associated with exposures to PM10 (but not to O3). The results of the mortality analyses are presented as risk percent changes (RPC) with a 95% confidence interval (CI). RPC is the increase in mortality risk associated with an increase of 10 microg/m3 in the 24-hour average concentration of PM10 or in the daily maximum 8-hour moving average concentration of O3. Most of the results for PM10 were positive and statistically significant, showing an increased risk of mortality with increased ambient concentrations. Results for O3 also showed a statistically significant increase in mortality in the cities with available data. With the distributed lag model, DLM 0-3, PM10 ambient concentrations were associated with an increased risk of mortality in all cities except Concepci6n and Temuco. In Mexico City and Santiago the RPC and 95% CIs were 1.02% (0.87 to 1.17) and 0.48% (0.35 to 0.61), respectively. PM10 was also significantly associated with increased mortality from cardiopulmonary, respiratory, cardiovascular, cerebrovascular-stroke, and chronic obstructive lung diseases (COPD) in most cities. The few nonsignificant effects generally were observed in the smallest cities (Concepción, Temuco, and Toluca). The percentage increases in mortality associated with ambient O3 concentrations were smaller than for those associated with PM10. All-natural-cause mortality was significantly related to O3 in Mexico City, Monterrey, São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Increased mortality risks for some specific causes were also observed in these cities and in Santiago. In the analyses stratified by season, different patterns in mortality and O3 were observed for cold and warm seasons. Risk estimates for the warm season were larger and significant for several causes of death in São Paulo and Rio de Janeiro. Risk estimates for the cold season were larger and significant for some causes of death in Mexico City, Monterrey, and Toluca. In an analysis stratified by SES, the all-natural-cause mortality risk in Mexico City was larger for people with a medium SES; however we observed that the risk of mortality related to respiratory causes was larger among people with a low SES, while the risk of mortality related to cardiovascular and cerebrovascular-stroke causes was larger among people with medium or high SES. In São Paulo, the all-natural-cause mortality risk was larger in people with a high SES, while in Rio de Janeiro the all-natural-cause mortality risk was larger in people with a low SES. In both Brazilian cities, the risks of mortality were larger for respiratory causes, especially for the low- and high-SES groups. In Santiago, all-natural-cause mortality risk did not vary with level of SES; however, people with a low SES had a higher respiratory mortality risk, particularly for COPD. People with a medium SES had larger risks of mortality from cardiovascular and cerebrovascular-stroke disease. The effect of ambient PM10 concentrations on infant and child mortality from respiratory causes and lower respiratory infection (LRI) was studied only for Mexico City, Santiago, and São Paulo. Significant increased mortality risk from these causes was observed in both Santiago (in infants and older children) and Mexico City (only in infants). For O3, an increased mortality risk was observed in Mexico City (in infants and older children) and in São Paulo (only in infants during the warm season). The results of the meta-analyses confirmed the positive and statistically significant association between PM10 and all-natural-cause mortality (RPC = 0.77% [95% CI: 0.60 to 1.00]) using the random-effects model. For mortality from specific causes, the percentage increase in mortality ranged from 0.72% (0.54 to 0.89) for cardiovascular disease to 2.44% (1.36 to 3.59) for COPD, also using the random-effects model. For O3, significant positive associations were observed using the random-effects model for some causes, but not for all natural causes or for respiratory diseases in people 65 years or older (> or = 65 years), and not for COPD and cerebrovascular-stroke in the all-age and the > or = 65 age groups. The percentage increase in all-natural-cause mortality was 0.16% (-0.02 to 0.33). In the meta-regression analyses, variables that best explained heterogeneity in mortality risks among cities were the mean average of temperature in the warm season, population percentage of infants (< 1 year), population percentage of children at least 1 year old but < 5 years (i.e., 1-4 years), population percentage of people > or = 65 years, geographic density of PM10 monitors, annual average concentrations of PM10, and mortality rates for lung cancer. The ESCALA project was undertaken to obtain information for assessing the effects of air pollutants on mortality in Latin America, where large populations are exposed to relatively high levels of ambient air pollution. An important goal was to provide evidence that could inform policies for controlling air pollution in Latin America. This project included the development of standardized protocols for data collection and for statistical analyses as well as statistical analytic programs (routines developed in R by the ESCALA team) to insure comparability of results. The analytic approach and statistical programming developed within this project should be of value for researchers carrying out single-city analyses and should facilitate the inclusion of additional Latin American cities within the ESCALA multicity project. Our analyses confirm what has been observed in other parts of the world regarding the effects of ambient PM10 and 03 concentrations on daily mortality. They also suggest that SES plays a role in the susceptibility of a population to air pollution; people with a lower SES appeared to have an increased risk of death from respiratory causes, particularly COPD. Compared with the general population, infants and young children appeared to be more susceptible to both PM10 and O3, although an increased risk of mortality was not observed in these age groups in all cities. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)
Romieu I ,Gouveia N ,Cifuentes LA ,de Leon AP ,Junger W ,Vera J ,Strappa V ,Hurtado-Díaz M ,Miranda-Soberanis V ,Rojas-Bracho L ,Carbajal-Arroyo L ,Tzintzun-Cervantes G ,HEI Health Review Committee ... - 《-》
被引量: 61 发表:2012年 -
There is emerging evidence, largely from studies in Europe and North America, that economic deprivation increases the magnitude of morbidity and mortality related to air pollution. Two major reasons why this may be true are that the poor experience higher levels of exposure to air pollution, and they are more vulnerable to its effects--in other words, due to poorer nutrition, less access to medical care, and other factors, they experience more health impact per unit of exposure. The relations among health, air pollution, and poverty are likely to have important implications for public health and social policy, especially in areas such as the developing countries of Asia where air pollution levels are high and many live in poverty. The aims of this study were to estimate the effect of exposure to air pollution on hospital admissions of young children for acute lower respiratory infection (ALRI*) and to explore whether such effects differed between poor children and other children. ALRI, which comprises pneumonia and bronchiolitis, is the largest single cause of mortality among young children worldwide and is responsible for a substantial burden of disease among young children in developing countries. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study of the health effects of air pollution in Ho Chi Minh City (HCMC), Vietnam. For these reasons, the results of this study have the potential to make an important contribution to the growing literature on the health effects of air pollution in Asia. The study focused on the short-term effects of daily average exposure to air pollutants on hospital admissions of children less than 5 years of age for ALRI, defined as pneumonia or bronchiolitis, in HCMC during 2003, 2004, and 2005. Admissions data were obtained from computerized records of Children's Hospital 1 and Children's Hospital 2 (CH1 and CH2) in HCMC. Nearly all children hospitalized for respiratory illnesses in the city are admitted to one of these two pediatric hospitals. Daily citywide 24-hour average concentrations of particulate matter (PM) < or =10 microm in aerodynamic diameter (PM10), nitrogen dioxide (NO2), and sulfur dioxide (SO2) and 8-hour maximum average concentrations of ozone (O3) were estimated from the HCMC Environmental Protection Agency (HEPA) ambient air quality monitoring network. Daily meteorologic information including temperature and relative humidity were collected from KTTV NB, the Southern Regional Hydro-Meteorological Center. An individual-level indicator of socioeconomic position (SEP) was based on the degree to which the patient was exempt from payment according to hospital financial records. A group-level indicator of SEP was based on estimates of poverty prevalence in the districts of HCMC in 2004, obtained from a poverty mapping project of the Institute of Economic Research in HCMC, in collaboration with the General Statistics Office of Vietnam and the World Bank. Poverty prevalence was defined using the poverty line set by the People's Committee of HCMC of 6 million Vietnamese dong (VND) annual income. Quartiles of district-level poverty prevalence were created based on poverty prevalence estimates for each district. Analyses were conducted using both time-series and case-crossover approaches. In the absence of measurement error, confounding, and other sources of bias, the two approaches were expected to provide estimates that differed only with regard to precision. For the time-series analyses, the unit of observation was daily counts of hospital admissions for ALRI. Poisson regression with smoothing functions for meteorologic variables and variables for seasonal and long-term trends was used. Case-crossover analyses were conducted using time-stratified selection of controls. Control days were every 7th day from the date of admission within the same month as admission. Large seasonal differences were observed in pollutant levels and hospital admission patterns during the investigation period for HCMC. Of the 15,717 ALRI admissions occurring within the study period, 60% occurred in the rainy season (May through October), with a peak in these admissions during July and August of each year. Average daily concentrations for PM10, O3, NO2, and SO2 were 73, 75, 22, and 22 microg/m3, respectively, with higher pollutant concentrations observed in the dry season (November through April) compared with the rainy season. As the time between onset of illness and hospital admission was thought to range from 1 to 6 days, it was not possible to specify a priori a single-day lag. We assessed results for single-day lags from lag 0 to lag 10, but emphasize results for an average of lag 1-6, since this best reflects the case reference period. Results were robust to differences in temperature lags with lag 0 and the average lag (1-6 days); results for lag 0 for temperature are presented. Results differed markedly when analyses were stratified by season, rather than simply adjusted for season. ALRI admissions were generally positively associated with ambient levels of PM10, NO2, and SO2 during the dry season (November-April), but not the rainy season (May-October). Positive associations between O3 and ALRI admissions were not observed in either season. We do not believe that exposure to air pollution could reduce the risk of ALRI in the rainy season and infer that these results could be driven by residual confounding present within the rainy season. The much lower correlation between NO2 and PM10 levels during the rainy season provides further evidence that these pollutants may not be accurate indicators of exposure to air pollution from combustion processes in the rainy season. Results were generally consistent across time-series and case-crossover analyses. In the dry season, risks for ALRI hospital admissions with average pollutant lag (1-6 days) were highest for NO2 and SO2 in the single-pollutant case-crossover analyses, with excess risks of 8.50% (95% CI, 0.80-16.79) and 5.85% (95% CI, 0.44-11.55) observed, respectively. NO2 and SO2 effects remained higher than PM10 effects in both the single-pollutant and two-pollutant models. The two-pollutant model indicated that NO2 confounded the PM10 and SO2 effects. For example, PM10 was weakly associated with an excess risk in the dry season of 1.25% (95% CI, -0.55 to 3.09); after adjusting for SO2 and O3, the risk estimate was reduced but remained elevated, with much wider confidence intervals; after adjusting for NO2, an excess risk was no longer observed. Though the effects seem to be driven by NO2, the statistical limitations of adequately addressing collinearity, given the high correlation between PM10 and NO2 (r = 0.78), limited our ability to clearly distinguish between PM10 and NO2 effects. In the rainy season, negative associations between PM10 and ALRI admissions were observed. No association with O3 was observed in the single-pollutant model, but O3 exposure was negatively associated with ALRI admissions in the two-pollutant model. There was little evidence of an association between NO2 and ALRI admissions. The single-pollutant estimate from the case-crossover analysis suggested a negative association between NO2 and ALRI admissions, but this effect was no longer apparent after adjustment for other pollutants. Although associations between SO2 and ALRI admissions were not observed in the rainy season, point estimates for the case-crossover analyses suggested negative associations, while time-series (Poisson regression) analyses suggested positive associations--an exception to the general consistency between case-crossover and time-series results. Results were robust to differences in seasonal classification. Inclusion of rainfall as a continuous variable and the seasonal reclassification of selected series of data did not influence results. No clear evidence of station-specific effects could be observed, since results for the different monitoring stations had overlapping confidence intervals. In the dry season, increased concentrations of NO2 and SO2 were associated with increased hospital admissions of young children for ALRI in HCMC. PM10 could also be associated with increased hospital admissions in the dry season, but the high correlation of 0.78 between PM10 and NO2 levels limits our ability to distinguish between PM10 and NO2 effects. Nevertheless, the results support the presence of an association between combustion-source pollution and increased ALRI admissions. There also appears to be evidence of uncontrolled negative confounding within the rainy season, with higher incidence of ALRI and lower pollutant concentrations overall. Exploratory analyses made using limited historical and regional data on monthly prevalence of respiratory syncytial virus (RSV) suggest that an unmeasured, time-varying confounder (RSV, in this case) could have, in an observational study like this one, created enough bias to reverse the observed effect estimates of pollutants in the rainy season. In addition, with virtually no RSV incidence in the dry season, these findings also lend some credibility to the notion that RSV could influence results primarily in the rainy season. Analyses were not able to identify differential effects by individual-level indicators of SEP, mainly due to the small number of children classified as poor based on information in the hospitals' financial records. Analyses assessing differences in effect by district-level indicator of SEP did not indicate a clear trend in risk across SEP quartiles, but there did appear to be a slightly higher risk among the residents of districts with the highest quartile of SEP. As these are the districts within the urban center of HCMC, results could be indicative of increased exposures for residents living within the city center. (ABSTRACT TRUNCATED)
HEI Collaborative Working Group on Air Pollution, Poverty, and Health in Ho Chi Minh City ,Le TG ,Ngo L ,Mehta S ,Do VD ,Thach TQ ,Vu XD ,Nguyen DT ,Cohen A ... - 《-》
被引量: 34 发表:2012年
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