Optimized personalized management approach for moderate/severe OHSS: development and prospective validation of an OHSS risk assessment index.

Can a simplified ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) risk assessment index be developed and validated with sufficient discrimination of moderate/severe OHSS from those without OHSS? This easy-to-use OHSS risk assessment index shows good discriminative power and high calibration accuracy in internal and external validation cohorts. An early alert and risk stratification is critical to prevent the occurrence of OHSS. We have previously developed a multi-stage smartphone app-based prediction model to evaluate the risk of OHSS, but app use might not be so convenient in many primary institutions. A simplified OHSS risk assessment index has been required. This training and internal validation of an OHSS risk assessment index used retrospective cohort data from January 2016 to December 2020. External validation was performed with a prospective cohort database from January 2021 to May 2022. There were 15 066 cycles in the training cohort, 6502 cycles in the internal validation cohort, and 8097 cycles in the external validation cohort. This study was performed in the reproductive medicine center of a tertiary hospital. Infertile women who underwent ovarian stimulation were included. Data were extracted from the local database with detailed medical records. A multi-stage risk assessment index was constructed at multiple stages. The first stage was before the initiation of ovarian stimulation, the second was before the ovulation trigger, the third was after oocyte retrieval, and the last stage was on the embryo transfer day if fresh embryo transfer was scheduled. We established a simplified multi-stage risk assessment index for moderate/severe OHSS, the performance of which was further evaluated with discrimination and calibration abilities in training and internal and external validation cohorts. The discrimination abilities of the OHSS risk assessment index were determined with C-statistics. C-statistics in training (Stages 1-4: 0.631, 0.692, 0.751, 0.788, respectively) and internal (Stages 1-4: 0.626, 0.642, 0.755, 0.771, respectively) and external validation (Stages 1-4: 0.668, 0.670, 0.754, 0.773, respectively) cohorts were all increased from Stage 1 to 3 with similar trends, and were comparable between Stages 3 and 4. Calibration plots showed high agreement between observed and predicted cases in all three cohorts. Incidences of OHSS based on diverse risk stratification (negligible risk, low risk, medium risk, and high risk) were 0%, 0.6%, 2.7%, and 8.3% in the training cohort, 0%, 0.6%, 3.3%, and 8.5% in the internal validation cohort, and 0.1%, 1.1%, 4.1%, and 7.2% in the external validation cohort. The influence from clinical interventions including cryopreservation of all embryos cannot be eliminated and thus certain risk factors like estrogen level on trigger day might be assigned with a lower risk score. Another weakness of the study is that several preventive treatments, for instance oral aspirin and letrozole, were not recorded and evaluated in the model. Despite the robust reliability of OHSS assessment index, this tool cannot be used directly for clinical decision-making or as a diagnostic tool. Its value lies in its capacity to evaluate the prognosis of various interventions and to facilitate clinician-patient communication. The combination of this tool and further symptoms and examinations should be all taken into consideration for accurate and personalized management of OHSS. The OHSS risk assessment index can be implemented to facilitate personalized counseling and management of OHSS. This study was supported by National Key R&D Program of China (2022YFC2702504), Medical Research Fund Guangdong Provincial (A2024003), and Xinjiang Support Rural Science and Technology (Special Correspondent) Program in Guangdong Province (KTPYJ 2023014). All authors had nothing to disclose. N/A.

Cao M ，Lin Q ，Liu Z ，Lin Y ，Huang Q ，Fu Y ，Zhang Y ，Shi H ，Duan C ，Liu H ，Liu J ... -  《-》

Consistent high clinical pregnancy rates and low ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome rates in high-risk patients after GnRH agonist triggering and modified luteal support: a retrospective multicentre study.

Iliodromiti S ，Blockeel C ，Tremellen KP ，Fleming R ，Tournaye H ，Humaidan P ，Nelson SM ... -  《-》

Individualized versus standard FSH dosing in women starting IVF/ICSI: an RCT. Part 2: The predicted hyper responder.

Does a reduced FSH dose in women with a predicted hyper response, apparent from a high antral follicle count (AFC), who are scheduled for IVF/ICSI lead to a different outcome with respect to cumulative live birth rate and safety? Although in women with a predicted hyper response (AFC > 15) undergoing IVF/ICSI a reduced FSH dose (100 IU per day) results in similar cumulative live birth rates and a lower occurrence of any grade of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) as compared to a standard dose (150 IU/day), a higher first cycle cancellation rate and similar severe OHSS rate were observed. Excessive ovarian response to controlled ovarian stimulation (COS) for IVF/ICSI may result in increased rates of cycle cancellation, the occurrence of OHSS and suboptimal live birth rates. In women scheduled for IVF/ICSI, an ovarian reserve test (ORT) can be used to predict response to COS. No consensus has been reached on whether ORT-based FSH dosing improves effectiveness and safety in women with a predicted hyper response. Between May 2011 and May 2014, we performed an open-label, multicentre RCT in women with regular menstrual cycles and an AFC > 15. Women with polycystic ovary syndrome (Rotterdam criteria) were excluded. The primary outcome was ongoing pregnancy achieved within 18 months after randomization and resulting in a live birth. Secondary outcomes included the occurrence of OHSS and cost-effectiveness. Since this RCT was embedded in a cohort study assessing over 1500 women, we expected to randomize 300 predicted hyper responders. Women with an AFC > 15 were randomized to an FSH dose of 100 IU or 150 IU/day. In both groups, dose adjustment was allowed in subsequent cycles (maximum 25 IU in the reduced and 50 IU in the standard group) based on pre-specified criteria. Both effectiveness and cost-effectiveness were evaluated from an intention-to-treat perspective. We randomized 255 women to a daily FSH dose of 100 IU and 266 women to a daily FSH dose of 150 IU. The cumulative live birth rate was 66.3% (169/255) in the reduced versus 69.5% (185/266) in the standard group (relative risk (RR) 0.95 [95%CI, 0.85-1.07], P = 0.423). The occurrence of any grade of OHSS was lower after a lower FSH dose (5.2% versus 11.8%, RR 0.44 [95%CI, 0.28-0.71], P = 0.001), but the occurrence of severe OHSS did not differ (1.3% versus 1.1%, RR 1.25 [95%CI, 0.38-4.07], P = 0.728). As dose reduction was not less expensive (€4.622 versus €4.714, delta costs/woman €92 [95%CI, -479-325]), there was no dominant strategy in the economic analysis. Despite our training programme, the AFC might have suffered from inter-observer variation. Although strict cancellation criteria were provided, selective cancelling in the reduced dose group (for poor response in particular) cannot be excluded as observers were not blinded for the FSH dose and small dose adjustments were allowed in subsequent cycles. However, as first cycle live birth rates did not differ from the cumulative results, the open design probably did not mask a potential benefit for the reduced dosing group. As this RCT was embedded in a larger cohort study, the power in this study was unavoidably lower than it should be. Participants had a relatively low BMI from an international perspective, which may limit generalization of the findings. In women with a predicted hyper response scheduled for IVF/ICSI, a reduced FSH dose does not affect live birth rates. A lower FSH dose did reduce the incidence of mild and moderate OHSS, but had no impact on severe OHSS. Future research into ORT-based dosing in women with a predicted hyper response should compare various safety management strategies and should be powered on a clinically relevant safety outcome while assessing non-inferiority towards live birth rates. This trial was funded by The Netherlands Organization for Health Research and Development (ZonMW, Project Number 171102020). SCO, TCvT and HLT received an unrestricted research grant from Merck Serono (the Netherlands). CBL receives grants from Merck, Ferring and Guerbet. BWJM is supported by a NHMRC Practitioner Fellowship (GNT1082548) and reports consultancy for OvsEva, Merck and Guerbet. FJMB receives monetary compensation as a member of the external advisory board for Ferring pharmaceutics BV and Merck Serono for consultancy work for Gedeon Richter (Belgium) and Roche Diagnostics (Switzerland) and for a research cooperation with Ansh Labs (USA). All other authors have nothing to declare. Registered at the ICMJE-recognized Dutch Trial Registry (www.trialregister.nl). Registration number: NTR2657. 20 December 2010. 12 May 2011.

Oudshoorn SC ，van Tilborg TC ，Eijkemans MJC ，Oosterhuis GJE ，Friederich J ，van Hooff MHA ，van Santbrink EJP ，Brinkhuis EA ，Smeenk JMJ ，Kwee J ，de Koning CH ，Groen H ，Lambalk CB ，Mol BWJ ，Broekmans FJM ，Torrance HL ，OPTIMIST study group ... -  《-》

A Personalized Management Approach of OHSS: Development of a Multiphase Prediction Model and Smartphone-Based App.

This study aimed to develop multiphase big-data-based prediction models of ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) and a smartphone app for risk calculation and patients' self-monitoring. Multiphase prediction models were developed from a retrospective cohort database of 21,566 women from January 2017 to December 2020 with controlled ovarian stimulation (COS). There were 17,445 women included in the final data analysis. Women were randomly assigned to either training cohort (n = 12,211) or validation cohort (n = 5,234). Their baseline clinical characteristics, COS-related characteristics, and embryo information were evaluated. The prediction models were divided into four phases: 1) prior to COS, 2) on the day of ovulation trigger, 3) after oocyte retrieval, and 4) prior to embryo transfer. The multiphase prediction models were built with stepwise regression and confirmed with LASSO regression. Internal validations were performed using the validation cohort and were assessed by discrimination and calibration, as well as clinical decision curves. A smartphone-based app "OHSS monitor" was constructed as part of the built-in app of the IVF-aid platform. The app had three modules, risk prediction module, symptom monitoring module, and treatment monitoring module. The multiphase prediction models were developed with acceptable distinguishing ability to identify OHSS at-risk patients. The C-statistics of the first, second, third, and fourth phases in the training cohort were 0.628 (95% CI 0.598-0.658), 0.715 (95% CI 0.688-0.742), 0.792 (95% CI 0.770-0.815), and 0.814 (95% CI 0.793-0.834), respectively. The calibration plot showed the agreement of predictive and observed risks of OHSS, especially at the third- and fourth-phase prediction models in both training and validation cohorts. The net clinical benefits of the multiphase prediction models were also confirmed with a clinical decision curve. A smartphone-based app was constructed as a risk calculator based on the multiphase prediction models, and also as a self-monitoring tool for patients at risk. We have built multiphase prediction models based on big data and constructed a user-friendly smartphone-based app for the personalized management of women at risk of moderate/severe OHSS. The multiphase prediction models and user-friendly app can be readily used in clinical practice for clinical decision-support and self-management of patients.

Cao M ，Liu Z ，Lin Y ，Luo Y ，Li S ，Huang Q ，Liu H ，Liu J ... -  《Frontiers in Endocrinology》

Risk of severe ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome in GnRH antagonist versus GnRH agonist protocol: RCT including 1050 first IVF/ICSI cycles.

Is the risk of severe ovarian hyperstimulation syndrome (OHSS) similar in a short GnRH antagonist and long GnRH agonist protocol in first cycle IVF/ICSI patients less than 40 years of age?. There is an increased risk of severe OHSS in the long GnRH agonist group compared with the short GnRH antagonist protocol. WHAT IS KNOWN ALREADY?: In the most recent Cochrane review, the GnRH antagonist protocol was associated with a similar live birth rate (LBR), a similar on-going pregnancy rate (OPR), and a lower incidence of OHSS (odds ratio (OR) = 0.43 95% confidence interval (CI): 0.33-0.57) compared with the traditional GnRH agonist protocol. Previous trials comparing the two protocols mainly included selected patient populations, a limited number of patients and the applied OHSS criteria differed, making direct comparisons difficult. In two recent large meta-analyses, no significant differences in LBR (OR = 0.86; 95% CI: 0.72-1.02) or in the incidence of severe OHSS were reported, while others found a lower LBR (OR = 0.82; 95% CI: 0.68-0.97) and a reduced risk of severe OHSS using the GnRH antagonist protocol (OR = 0.60; 95% CI: 0.40-0.88). Phase IV, dual-centre, open-label, RCT including 1050 women allocated to either short GnRH antagonist or long GnRH agonist protocol in a 1:1 ratio and enrolled over a 5-year period using a web-based concealed randomization code. This is a superiority study designed to detect a difference in severe OHSS, the primary outcome, between the two groups with a power of 80% and stratified for age, assisted reproductive technology (ART) clinic and planned fertilization procedure (IVF/ICSI). The secondary aims were to compare rates of mild and moderate OHSS, positive plasma (p)-hCG, on-going pregnancy and live birth between the two arms. None of the women had undergone previous ART treatment. All infertile women referred for their first IVF/ICSI at two public fertility clinics, less than 40 years of age and with no uterine malformations were asked to participate. A total of 1099 subjects were randomized, including women with poor ovarian reserve, polycystic ovary syndrome and irregular cycles. A total of 49 women withdrew their consent, thus 1050 subjects were allocated to the GnRH antagonist (n = 534) and agonist protocol (n = 516), respectively. In total 1023 women started recombinant human follitropin-β (rFSH) stimulation, 528 in the GnRH antagonist group and 495 in the GnRH agonist group. All subjects were given a fixed rFSH dose of 150 IU or 225 IU according to age ≤36 years or >36 years, with the option to adjust dose at stimulation day 6. Clinical OHSS parameters were collected at oocyte retrieval, and Days 3 and 14 post-transfer. On-going pregnancy was determined by transvaginal ultrasonography at gestational weeks 7-9. In the intention-to-treat (ITT) analysis for reproductive outcomes, 1050 subjects were included. For the ITT analyses on OHSS 1023 subjects who started gonadotrophin stimulation were included. The incidence of severe OHSS [5.1% (27/528) versus 8.9% (44/495) (difference in proportion percentage point (Δpp) = -3.8pp; 95% CI: -7.1 to -0.4; P = 0.02)] and moderate OHSS [10.2% (54/528) versus 15.6% (77/495) (Δpp = -5.3pp; 95% CI: -9.6 to -1.0; P = 0.01) ] was significantly lower in the GnRH antagonist group compared with the agonist group, respectively. In the GnRH antagonist and agonist group, respectively, 4.7% (25/528) versus 8.5% (42/495) women were seen by a physician due to OHSS (P = 0.01), and 1.7% (9/528) versus 3.6% (18/495) were admitted to hospital due to OHSS (P = 0.06). No women had ascites-puncture in the GnRH antagonist group versus 2.0% (10/495) in the GnRH agonist group (P < 0.01). LBRs were 22.8% (122/534) versus 23.8% (123/516) (Δpp = -1.0pp; 95% CI: -6.3 to 4.3; P = 0.70) and OPRs were 24.9% (133/528) versus 26.2% (135/516) (Δpp = -1.3pp; 95% CI: -6.7 to 4.2; P = 0.64) per randomized subject in the GnRH antagonist versus agonist group, with a mean number of 1.1 versus 1.2 embryos transferred in the two groups. Pregnancy rates (PR) per randomized subject, per started gonadotrophin stimulation and per embryo transfer were all similar in the two groups. A possible limitation is the duration of the trial, with new methods, such as 'freeze all' and 'GnRH agonist triggering', being developed during the trial, the new methods were sought avoided, however a total number of 32 women had 'freeze all' and 'GnRH agonist triggering' was performed in three cases. Ultrasonic measurements were performed by different physicians and inter-observer bias may be present. Measures of anti-Mullerian hormone and antral follicle count, to estimate ovarian reserve and thus predict risk of OHSS, were not performed. Finally, the physicians were not blinded to GnRH treatment group after randomization. The short GnRH antagonist protocol should be the protocol of choice for patients undergoing their first ART cycle in females <40 years of age including both low and high responders when an age-dependent initially fixed gonadotrophin dose is used, as an increased risk of severe OHSS and the associated complications is seen in the long GnRH agonist group and as PRs and LBRs are similar in the two groups. Patients at risk of OHSS particularly benefit from the short GnRH antagonist treatment as GnRH agonist triggering can be used. An unrestricted research grant is funded by Merck Sharp & Dohme Corp., a subsidiary of Merck & Co., Inc., Kenilworth, NJ, USA (MSD). The funders had no influence on the data collection, analyses or conclusions of the study. No conflict of interests to declare. EudraCT #: 2008-005452-24. ClinicalTrial.gov: NCT00756028. Trial registration date: 18 September 2008. Date of first patient's enrolment: 14 January 2009.

Toftager M ，Bogstad J ，Bryndorf T ，Løssl K ，Roskær J ，Holland T ，Prætorius L ，Zedeler A ，Nilas L ，Pinborg A ... -  《-》