Cardiac biomarkers for screening and prognostication of cardiac dysfunction in critically ill patients.

This study aimed to assess the use of high-sensitivity troponin T (hsTNT) and N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) in screening for cardiac dysfunction [left ventricular (LV) systolic or diastolic dysfunction or right ventricular (RV) dysfunction] in mixed intensive care unit (ICU) patients and establish whether these biomarkers are independently associated with an increased risk of death. We performed a secondary analysis of a single-centre prospective observational study in which consecutive ICU patients were examined with transthoracic echocardiography (TTE) and cardiac biomarkers. Patients with systolic or diastolic LV dysfunction, RV dysfunction or a combination of these were compared with patients with normal cardiac function. Sensitivity and specificity for different cut-off levels were calculated using receiver operating characteristic curves. Regression models were used to evaluate the associations between cardiac biomarkers, sepsis, renal failure and mortality. A total of 276 patients were included. Most of the patients had cardiac dysfunction on TTE (64%). Combined cardiac dysfunction was most prevalent (71 patients, 26%), followed by isolated diastolic LV dysfunction (40 patients, 15%). Levels of hsTNT and NT-proBNP were higher in all types of cardiac dysfunction versus patients with normal cardiac function. The area under the curve (AUC) for hsTNT to detect any cardiac dysfunction was 0.75. An optimal cut-off at 30.5 ng/L rendered a positive predictive value (PPV) of 80% and a negative predictive value (NPV) of 58%. The AUC for NT-proBNP to detect any cardiac dysfunction was 0.788. Using an optimal cut-off at 1145 ng/L rendered a PPV of 86% and an NPV of 58%. Using a clinically relevant 90% sensitivity for detecting cardiac dysfunction put the cut-offs at 14.1 ng/L for hsTNT and 247 ng/L for NT-proBNP, resulting in a specificity of 48% and 46%, respectively. Levels of NT-proBNP were associated with sepsis and renal failure (P < 0.001), while levels of hsTNT were associated with renal failure only (P < 0.001) after adjustment for cardiac dysfunction. Levels of biomarkers were associated with an increased risk of 90 day mortality after adjustments for age, Simplified Acute Physiology Score 3, cardiac dysfunction and factors independently associated with biomarker increase (sepsis and renal failure) (P = 0.048 for hsTNT and P < 0.006 for NT-proBNP). Cardiac biomarkers, hsTNT and NT-proBNP, are strongly correlated to cardiac dysfunction in ICU patients and have a robust association with increased mortality. However, the relatively low NPV and the low specificity at relevant sensitivity levels of the biomarkers make them unsuitable for use in screening for cardiac dysfunction.

Cavefors O ，Einarsson F ，Holmqvist J ，Bech-Hanssen O ，Ricksten SE ，Redfors B ，Oras J ... -  《ESC Heart Failure》

Comparison of Two Modern Survival Prediction Tools, SORG-MLA and METSSS, in Patients With Symptomatic Long-bone Metastases Who Underwent Local Treatment With Surgery Followed by Radiotherapy and With Radiotherapy Alone.

Survival estimation for patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases ideally should be made before a type of local treatment has already been determined. Currently available survival prediction tools, however, were generated using data from patients treated either operatively or with local radiation alone, raising concerns about whether they would generalize well to all patients presenting for assessment. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine-learning algorithm (SORG-MLA), trained with institution-based data of surgically treated patients, and the Metastases location, Elderly, Tumor primary, Sex, Sickness/comorbidity, and Site of radiotherapy model (METSSS), trained with registry-based data of patients treated with radiotherapy alone, are two of the most recently developed survival prediction models, but they have not been tested on patients whose local treatment strategy is not yet decided. (1) Which of these two survival prediction models performed better in a mixed cohort made up both of patients who received local treatment with surgery followed by radiotherapy and who had radiation alone for symptomatic bone metastases? (2) Which model performed better among patients whose local treatment consisted of only palliative radiotherapy? (3) Are laboratory values used by SORG-MLA, which are not included in METSSS, independently associated with survival after controlling for predictions made by METSSS? Between 2010 and 2018, we provided local treatment for 2113 adult patients with skeletal metastases in the extremities at an urban tertiary referral academic medical center using one of two strategies: (1) surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy or (2) palliative radiotherapy alone. Every patient's survivorship status was ascertained either by their medical records or the national death registry from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Administration. After applying a priori designated exclusion criteria, 91% (1920) were analyzed here. Among them, 48% (920) of the patients were female, and the median (IQR) age was 62 years (53 to 70 years). Lung was the most common primary tumor site (41% [782]), and 59% (1128) of patients had other skeletal metastases in addition to the treated lesion(s). In general, the indications for surgery were the presence of a complete pathologic fracture or an impending pathologic fracture, defined as having a Mirels score of ≥ 9, in patients with an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification of less than or equal to IV and who were considered fit for surgery. The indications for radiotherapy were relief of pain, local tumor control, prevention of skeletal-related events, and any combination of the above. In all, 84% (1610) of the patients received palliative radiotherapy alone as local treatment for the target lesion(s), and 16% (310) underwent surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy. Neither METSSS nor SORG-MLA was used at the point of care to aid clinical decision-making during the treatment period. Survival was retrospectively estimated by these two models to test their potential for providing survival probabilities. We first compared SORG to METSSS in the entire population. Then, we repeated the comparison in patients who received local treatment with palliative radiation alone. We assessed model performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration analysis, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The AUROC measures discrimination, which is the ability to distinguish patients with the event of interest (such as death at a particular time point) from those without. AUROC typically ranges from 0.5 to 1.0, with 0.5 indicating random guessing and 1.0 a perfect prediction, and in general, an AUROC of ≥ 0.7 indicates adequate discrimination for clinical use. Calibration refers to the agreement between the predicted outcomes (in this case, survival probabilities) and the actual outcomes, with a perfect calibration curve having an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1. A positive intercept indicates that the actual survival is generally underestimated by the prediction model, and a negative intercept suggests the opposite (overestimation). When comparing models, an intercept closer to 0 typically indicates better calibration. Calibration can also be summarized as log(O:E), the logarithm scale of the ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) survivors. A log(O:E) > 0 signals an underestimation (the observed survival is greater than the predicted survival); and a log(O:E) < 0 indicates the opposite (the observed survival is lower than the predicted survival). A model with a log(O:E) closer to 0 is generally considered better calibrated. The Brier score is the mean squared difference between the model predictions and the observed outcomes, and it ranges from 0 (best prediction) to 1 (worst prediction). The Brier score captures both discrimination and calibration, and it is considered a measure of overall model performance. In Brier score analysis, the "null model" assigns a predicted probability equal to the prevalence of the outcome and represents a model that adds no new information. A prediction model should achieve a Brier score at least lower than the null-model Brier score to be considered as useful. The DCA was developed as a method to determine whether using a model to inform treatment decisions would do more good than harm. It plots the net benefit of making decisions based on the model's predictions across all possible risk thresholds (or cost-to-benefit ratios) in relation to the two default strategies of treating all or no patients. The care provider can decide on an acceptable risk threshold for the proposed treatment in an individual and assess the corresponding net benefit to determine whether consulting with the model is superior to adopting the default strategies. Finally, we examined whether laboratory data, which were not included in the METSSS model, would have been independently associated with survival after controlling for the METSSS model's predictions by using the multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Between the two models, only SORG-MLA achieved adequate discrimination (an AUROC of > 0.7) in the entire cohort (of patients treated operatively or with radiation alone) and in the subgroup of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy alone. SORG-MLA outperformed METSSS by a wide margin on discrimination, calibration, and Brier score analyses in not only the entire cohort but also the subgroup of patients whose local treatment consisted of radiotherapy alone. In both the entire cohort and the subgroup, DCA demonstrated that SORG-MLA provided more net benefit compared with the two default strategies (of treating all or no patients) and compared with METSSS when risk thresholds ranged from 0.2 to 0.9 at both 90 days and 1 year, indicating that using SORG-MLA as a decision-making aid was beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting for treatment was 0.2 to 0.9. Higher albumin, lower alkaline phosphatase, lower calcium, higher hemoglobin, lower international normalized ratio, higher lymphocytes, lower neutrophils, lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lower platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, higher sodium, and lower white blood cells were independently associated with better 1-year and overall survival after adjusting for the predictions made by METSSS. Based on these discoveries, clinicians might choose to consult SORG-MLA instead of METSSS for survival estimation in patients with long-bone metastases presenting for evaluation of local treatment. Basing a treatment decision on the predictions of SORG-MLA could be beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting to undergo a particular treatment strategy ranged from 0.2 to 0.9. Future studies might investigate relevant laboratory items when constructing or refining a survival estimation model because these data demonstrated prognostic value independent of the predictions of the METSSS model, and future studies might also seek to keep these models up to date using data from diverse, contemporary patients undergoing both modern operative and nonoperative treatments. Level III, diagnostic study.

Lee CC ，Chen CW ，Yen HK ，Lin YP ，Lai CY ，Wang JL ，Groot OQ ，Janssen SJ ，Schwab JH ，Hsu FM ，Lin WH ... -  《-》

Defining the optimum strategy for identifying adults and children with coeliac disease: systematic review and economic modelling.

Elwenspoek MM ，Thom H ，Sheppard AL ，Keeney E ，O'Donnell R ，Jackson J ，Roadevin C ，Dawson S ，Lane D ，Stubbs J ，Everitt H ，Watson JC ，Hay AD ，Gillett P ，Robins G ，Jones HE ，Mallett S ，Whiting PF ... -  《-》

NT-proBNP and Cardiac Troponin I, but Not Cardiac Troponin T, Are Associated With 7-Year Changes in Cardiac Structure and Function in Older Adults: The ARIC Study.

Myhre PL ，Claggett B ，Ballantyne CM ，Hoogeveen RC ，Selvin E ，Matsushita K ，Kitzman D ，Konety S ，Mosley T ，Shah AM ... -  《-》

Prognostic impact of beta-blocker use by N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide level in acute heart failure patients.

Both patients with heart failure (HF) with reduced ejection fraction (HFrEF) and those with HF with preserved ejection fraction (HFpEF) present with elevated N-terminal pro-brain natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) and have multiple comorbidities; consequently, the prognostic effect of NT-proBNP according to beta-blocker (BB) use is unknown. This retrospective study evaluated patients admitted for acute HF between January 2012 and December 2017 at Ulsan University Hospital. Clinical, echocardiographic, laboratory and drug prescription data, including BB data, were collected from the hospital database. Information on mortality was collected by reviewing medical records or using national death data. Of the 472 patients evaluated, 216 (45.8%) and 256 (54.2%) patients were and were not prescribed BB at discharge, respectively. A total of 224 (47.5%) patients died within a median follow-up duration of 44 months. The Kaplan-Meier analysis showed reduced all-cause mortality with BB in HFrEF (ejection fraction ≤ 40%) but not in HFpEF (ejection fraction > 40%). In the multivariate Cox regression analysis, transmitral to tissue Doppler imaging, early diastolic velocity ratio (E/E'), NT-proBNP and BB use were independent predictors of all-cause mortality in HFrEF. Meanwhile, haemoglobin and NT-proBNP levels were independent predictors of HFpEF. The NT-proBNP cut-off value for determining all-cause mortality was set to 4800 pg/mL. Among HFrEF patients with NT-proBNP < 4800 pg/mL, the survival rate was higher for patients with BB use than those with no BB use (log-rank P < 0.001). However, in the HFpEF group, the survival rate associated with BB use did not differ according to the NT-proBNP levels. Both HFrEF and HFpEF patients with NT-proBNP levels of ≥4800 pg/mL presented with multiple comorbidities, including lower body mass index and haemoglobin levels and higher creatinine levels, NT-proBNP levels and E/E'. In patients with acute HF, BB use is associated with reduced all-cause mortality in those with HFrEF but not in those with HFpEF. HFrEF patients with NT-proBNP levels of <4800 pg/mL treated with BB have a higher survival rate than those not treated with BB. However, this benefit is not seen in HFrEF patients with NT-proBNP levels of ≥4800 pg/mL or in all HFpEF patients, regardless of the NT-proBNP level. NT-proBNP levels are elevated in multiple comorbid conditions, and these comorbidities may contribute to the attenuated effects of BB on all-cause mortality.

Kim SJ ，Ann SH ，Park GM ，Kim YG ，Park S ，Lee SG ... -  《ESC Heart Failure》