Predicting major adverse cardiac events using radiomics nomogram of pericoronary adipose tissue based on CCTA: A multi-center study.

The evolution of coronary atherosclerotic heart disease (CAD) is intricately linked to alterations in the pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT). In recent epochs, characteristics of the PCAT have progressively ascended as focal points of research in CAD risk stratification and individualized clinical decision-making. Harnessing radiomic methodologies allows for the meticulous extraction of imaging features from these adipose deposits. Coupled with machine learning paradigms, we endeavor to establish predictive models for the onset of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). To appraise the predictive utility of radiomic features of PCAT derived from coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in forecasting MACE. We retrospectively incorporated data from 314 suspected or confirmed CAD patients admitted to our institution from June 2019 to December 2022. An additional cohort of 242 patients from two external institutions was encompassed for external validation. The endpoint under consideration was the occurrence of MACE after a 1-year follow-up. MACE was delineated as cardiovascular mortality, newly diagnosed myocardial infarction, hospitalization (or re-hospitalization) for heart failure, and coronary target vessel revascularization occurring more than 30 days post-CCTA examination. All enrolled patients underwent CCTA scanning. Radiomic features were meticulously extracted from the optimal diastolic phase axial slices of CCTA images. Feature reduction was achieved through a composite feature selection algorithm, laying the groundwork for the radiomic signature model. Both univariate and multivariate analyses were employed to assess clinical variables. A multifaceted logistic regression analysis facilitated the crafting of a clinical-radiological-radiomic combined model (or nomogram). Receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration, and decision curve analyses (DCA) were delineated, with the area under the ROC curve (AUCs) computed to gauge the predictive prowess of the clinical model, radiomic model, and the synthesized ensemble. A total of 12 radiomic features closely associated with MACE were identified to establish the radiomic model. Multivariate logistic regression results demonstrated that smoking, age, hypertension, and dyslipidemia were significantly correlated with MACE. In the integrated nomogram, which amalgamated clinical, imaging, and radiomic parameters, the diagnostic performance was as follows: 0.970 AUC, 0.949 accuracy (ACC), 0.833 sensitivity (SEN), 0.981 specificity (SPE), 0.926 positive predictive value (PPV), and 0.955 negative predictive value (NPV). The calibration curve indicated a commendable concordance of the nomogram, and the decision curve analysis underscored its superior clinical utility. The integration of radiomic signatures from PCAT based on CCTA, clinical indices, and imaging parameters into a nomogram stands as a promising instrument for prognosticating MACE events.

Huang Z ，Lam S ，Lin Z ，Zhou L ，Pei L ，Song A ，Wang T ，Zhang Y ，Qi R ，Huang S ... -  《-》

Machine learning-based radiomic features of perivascular adipose tissue in coronary computed tomography angiography predicting inflammation status around atherosclerotic plaque: a retrospective cohort study.

Ye K ，Zhang L ，Zhou H ，Mo X ，Shi C ... -  《-》

Comparison of Two Modern Survival Prediction Tools, SORG-MLA and METSSS, in Patients With Symptomatic Long-bone Metastases Who Underwent Local Treatment With Surgery Followed by Radiotherapy and With Radiotherapy Alone.

Survival estimation for patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases ideally should be made before a type of local treatment has already been determined. Currently available survival prediction tools, however, were generated using data from patients treated either operatively or with local radiation alone, raising concerns about whether they would generalize well to all patients presenting for assessment. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine-learning algorithm (SORG-MLA), trained with institution-based data of surgically treated patients, and the Metastases location, Elderly, Tumor primary, Sex, Sickness/comorbidity, and Site of radiotherapy model (METSSS), trained with registry-based data of patients treated with radiotherapy alone, are two of the most recently developed survival prediction models, but they have not been tested on patients whose local treatment strategy is not yet decided. (1) Which of these two survival prediction models performed better in a mixed cohort made up both of patients who received local treatment with surgery followed by radiotherapy and who had radiation alone for symptomatic bone metastases? (2) Which model performed better among patients whose local treatment consisted of only palliative radiotherapy? (3) Are laboratory values used by SORG-MLA, which are not included in METSSS, independently associated with survival after controlling for predictions made by METSSS? Between 2010 and 2018, we provided local treatment for 2113 adult patients with skeletal metastases in the extremities at an urban tertiary referral academic medical center using one of two strategies: (1) surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy or (2) palliative radiotherapy alone. Every patient's survivorship status was ascertained either by their medical records or the national death registry from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Administration. After applying a priori designated exclusion criteria, 91% (1920) were analyzed here. Among them, 48% (920) of the patients were female, and the median (IQR) age was 62 years (53 to 70 years). Lung was the most common primary tumor site (41% [782]), and 59% (1128) of patients had other skeletal metastases in addition to the treated lesion(s). In general, the indications for surgery were the presence of a complete pathologic fracture or an impending pathologic fracture, defined as having a Mirels score of ≥ 9, in patients with an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification of less than or equal to IV and who were considered fit for surgery. The indications for radiotherapy were relief of pain, local tumor control, prevention of skeletal-related events, and any combination of the above. In all, 84% (1610) of the patients received palliative radiotherapy alone as local treatment for the target lesion(s), and 16% (310) underwent surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy. Neither METSSS nor SORG-MLA was used at the point of care to aid clinical decision-making during the treatment period. Survival was retrospectively estimated by these two models to test their potential for providing survival probabilities. We first compared SORG to METSSS in the entire population. Then, we repeated the comparison in patients who received local treatment with palliative radiation alone. We assessed model performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration analysis, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The AUROC measures discrimination, which is the ability to distinguish patients with the event of interest (such as death at a particular time point) from those without. AUROC typically ranges from 0.5 to 1.0, with 0.5 indicating random guessing and 1.0 a perfect prediction, and in general, an AUROC of ≥ 0.7 indicates adequate discrimination for clinical use. Calibration refers to the agreement between the predicted outcomes (in this case, survival probabilities) and the actual outcomes, with a perfect calibration curve having an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1. A positive intercept indicates that the actual survival is generally underestimated by the prediction model, and a negative intercept suggests the opposite (overestimation). When comparing models, an intercept closer to 0 typically indicates better calibration. Calibration can also be summarized as log(O:E), the logarithm scale of the ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) survivors. A log(O:E) > 0 signals an underestimation (the observed survival is greater than the predicted survival); and a log(O:E) < 0 indicates the opposite (the observed survival is lower than the predicted survival). A model with a log(O:E) closer to 0 is generally considered better calibrated. The Brier score is the mean squared difference between the model predictions and the observed outcomes, and it ranges from 0 (best prediction) to 1 (worst prediction). The Brier score captures both discrimination and calibration, and it is considered a measure of overall model performance. In Brier score analysis, the "null model" assigns a predicted probability equal to the prevalence of the outcome and represents a model that adds no new information. A prediction model should achieve a Brier score at least lower than the null-model Brier score to be considered as useful. The DCA was developed as a method to determine whether using a model to inform treatment decisions would do more good than harm. It plots the net benefit of making decisions based on the model's predictions across all possible risk thresholds (or cost-to-benefit ratios) in relation to the two default strategies of treating all or no patients. The care provider can decide on an acceptable risk threshold for the proposed treatment in an individual and assess the corresponding net benefit to determine whether consulting with the model is superior to adopting the default strategies. Finally, we examined whether laboratory data, which were not included in the METSSS model, would have been independently associated with survival after controlling for the METSSS model's predictions by using the multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Between the two models, only SORG-MLA achieved adequate discrimination (an AUROC of > 0.7) in the entire cohort (of patients treated operatively or with radiation alone) and in the subgroup of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy alone. SORG-MLA outperformed METSSS by a wide margin on discrimination, calibration, and Brier score analyses in not only the entire cohort but also the subgroup of patients whose local treatment consisted of radiotherapy alone. In both the entire cohort and the subgroup, DCA demonstrated that SORG-MLA provided more net benefit compared with the two default strategies (of treating all or no patients) and compared with METSSS when risk thresholds ranged from 0.2 to 0.9 at both 90 days and 1 year, indicating that using SORG-MLA as a decision-making aid was beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting for treatment was 0.2 to 0.9. Higher albumin, lower alkaline phosphatase, lower calcium, higher hemoglobin, lower international normalized ratio, higher lymphocytes, lower neutrophils, lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lower platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, higher sodium, and lower white blood cells were independently associated with better 1-year and overall survival after adjusting for the predictions made by METSSS. Based on these discoveries, clinicians might choose to consult SORG-MLA instead of METSSS for survival estimation in patients with long-bone metastases presenting for evaluation of local treatment. Basing a treatment decision on the predictions of SORG-MLA could be beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting to undergo a particular treatment strategy ranged from 0.2 to 0.9. Future studies might investigate relevant laboratory items when constructing or refining a survival estimation model because these data demonstrated prognostic value independent of the predictions of the METSSS model, and future studies might also seek to keep these models up to date using data from diverse, contemporary patients undergoing both modern operative and nonoperative treatments. Level III, diagnostic study.

Lee CC ，Chen CW ，Yen HK ，Lin YP ，Lai CY ，Wang JL ，Groot OQ ，Janssen SJ ，Schwab JH ，Hsu FM ，Lin WH ... -  《-》

The predictive value of lesion-specific pericoronary fat attenuation index for major adverse cardiovascular events in patients with type 2 diabetes.

The purpose of this study was to explore the prognostic significance of the lesion-specific pericoronary fat attenuation index (FAI) in forecasting major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE) among patients with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM). This study conducted a retrospective analysis of 304 patients diagnosed with T2DM who underwent coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) in our hospital from December 2011 to October 2021. All participants were followed for a period exceeding three years. Detailed clinical data and CCTA imaging features were carefully recorded, encompassing lesion-specific pericoronary FAI, FAI of the three prime coronary arteries, features of high-risk plaques, and the coronary artery calcium score (CACS). The MACE included in the study comprised cardiac death, acute coronary syndrome (which encompasses unstable angina pectoris and myocardial infarction), late-phase coronary revascularization procedures, and hospital admissions prompted by heart failure. Within the three-year follow-up, 76 patients with T2DM suffered from MACE. The lesion-specific pericoronary FAI in patients who experienced MACE was notably higher compared to those without MACE (-84.87 ± 11.36 Hounsfield Units (HU) vs. -88.65 ± 11.89 HU, p = 0.016). Multivariate Cox regression analysis revealed that CACS ≥ 100 (hazard ratio [HR] = 4.071, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.157-7.683, p < 0.001) and lesion-specific pericoronary FAI higher than - 83.5 HU (HR = 2.400, 95% CI 1.399-4.120, p = 0.001) were independently associated with heightened risk of MACE in patients with T2DM over a three-year period. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that patients with higher lesion-specific pericoronary FAI were more likely to develop MACE (p = 0.0023). Additionally, lesions characterized by higher lesion-specific pericoronary FAI values were found to have a greater proportion of high-risk plaques (p = 0.015). Subgroup analysis indicated that lesion-specific pericoronary FAI higher than - 83.5 HU (HR = 2.017, 95% CI 1.143-3.559, p = 0.015) was independently correlated with MACE in patients with T2DM who have moderate to severe coronary calcification. Moreover, the combination of CACS ≥ 100 and lesion-specific pericoronary FAI>-83.5 HU significantly enhanced the predictive value of MACE in patients with T2DM within 3 years. The elevated lesion-specific pericoronary FAI emerged as an independent prognostic factor for MACE in patients with T2DM, inclusive of those with moderate to severe coronary artery calcification. Incorporating lesion-specific pericoronary FAI with the CACS provided incremental predictive power for MACE in patients with T2DM.

Liu M ，Zhen Y ，Shang J ，Dang Y ，Zhang Q ，Ni W ，Qiao Y ，Hou Y ... -  《Cardiovascular Diabetology》

Identification of patients with unstable angina based on coronary CT angiography: the application of pericoronary adipose tissue radiomics.

To explore whether radiomics analysis of pericoronary adipose tissue (PCAT) captured by coronary computed tomography angiography (CCTA) could discriminate unstable angina (UA) from stable angina (SA). In this single-center retrospective case-control study, coronary CT images and clinical data from 240 angina patients were collected and analyzed. Patients with unstable angina (n = 120) were well-matched with those having stable angina (n = 120). All patients were randomly divided into training (70%) and testing (30%) datasets. Automatic segmentation was performed on the pericoronary adipose tissue surrounding the proximal segments of the left anterior descending artery (LAD), left circumflex coronary artery (LCX), and right coronary artery (RCA). Corresponding radiomic features were extracted and selected, and the fat attenuation index (FAI) for these three vessels was quantified. Machine learning techniques were employed to construct the FAI and radiomic models. Multivariate logistic regression analysis was used to identify the most relevant clinical features, which were then combined with radiomic features to create clinical and integrated models. The performance of different models was compared in terms of area under the curve (AUC), calibration, clinical utility, and sensitivity. In both training and validation cohorts, the integrated model (AUC = 0.87, 0.74) demonstrated superior discriminatory ability compared to the FAI model (AUC = 0.68, 0.51), clinical feature model (AUC = 0.84, 0.67), and radiomic model (AUC = 0.85, 0.73). The nomogram derived from the combined radiomic and clinical features exhibited excellent performance in diagnosing and predicting unstable angina. Calibration curves showed good fit for all four machine learning models. Decision curve analysis indicated that the integrated model provided better clinical benefit than the other three models. CCTA-based radiomics signature of PCAT is better than the FAI model in identifying unstable angina and stable angina. The integrated model constructed by combining radiomics and clinical features could further improve the diagnosis and differentiation ability of unstable angina.

Zhan W ，Li Y ，Luo H ，He J ，Long J ，Xu Y ，Yang Y ... -  《Frontiers in Cardiovascular Medicine》