Global, regional, and national burden of thalassemia, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the global burden of disease study 2021.

Anemia is a significant contributor to the global disease burden, of which thalassemia is the most common hereditary anaemic disease. Previous estimates were based on data that were geographically limited and lacked comprehensive global analysis. This study provides the prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) of thalassemia in 204 countries and regions of thalassemia between 1990 and 2021, focusing on the age structure and time trends of the disease burden. To provide effective information for health policy, allocation of medical resources and optimization of patient management programs. Using the standardised Global Burden of Disease (GBD) methodologies, we aimed to derive a more precise representation of the health burden posed by thalassemia by considering four distinct types of epidemiological data, namely the incidence at birth, prevalence, mortality and DALYs. The presented data were meticulously estimated and displayed both as numerical counts and as age-standardised rates per 100,000 persons of the population, accompanied by uncertainty interval (UI) to highlight potential statistical variability. The temporal trends spanning the years 1990-2021 were subjected to a rigorous examination utilizing Joinpoint regression analysis. This methodological approach facilitated the computation of the annual percentage change (APC) and the average annual percentage change (AAPC), along with their corresponding 95% confidence intervals (CIs). Globally, the age-standardized prevalence rates (ASPR), age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and age-standardized DALYs rates for thalassemia in 2021 were 18.28 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 15.29-22.02), 1.93 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 1.51-2.49), 0.15 per 100,000 persons(95% UI 0.11-0.20), and 11.65 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 8.24-14.94), respectively. Compared to 1990, these rates have decreased by 0.18 (95% UI -0.22 to -0.14), 0.25 (95% UI -0.30 to -0.19), 0.48 (95% UI -0.60 to -0.28), and 0.49 (95% UI -0.62 to -0.29) respectively. In 2021, the ASIR of thalassemia was highest in East Asia at 7.35 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 5.37-10.04), and ASMR was highest in Southeast Asia at 0.37 per 100,000 persons (95% UI 0.29-0.45).Gender comparisons showed negligible differences in disease burden, with the highest prevalence noted in children under five, decreasing with age. The global ASPR and ASMR declined from 1990 to 2021 overall, though an increasing trend in prevalence was found among the elderly. Joinpoint analysis revealed that the global ASPR increased between 2018 and 2021 (APC = 9.2%, 95% CI: 4.8%-13.8%, P < 0.001), ASIR decreased (APC = -7.68%, 95% CI: -10.88% to -4.36%, P < 0.001), and there was a significant rise in ASMR from 2019 to 2021 (APC = 4.8%, 95% CI: 0.1%-9.6%, P < 0.05). Trends in ASPR and ASMR varied across regions, with notable changes in South Asia. The global burden of thalassemia, reflected in its prevalence, incidence, mortality, and DALYs, exhibits significant disparities. Geographic and demographic shifts in disease distribution have been observed from 1990 to 2021, with an overall decrease in burden, yet an increase in cases among the elderly population. Analysis of epidemiological trends over time highlights the influence of health policies and significant public health interventions on thalassemia outcomes. There data are crucial for healthcare professionals, policymakers, and researchers to refine and enhance management strategies, aiming to further mitigate thalassemia's global impact. National Natural Science Foundation of China; Guizhou Province Science and Technology Project; Guizhou Province Science and Technology Foundation of Health Commission.

Tuo Y ，Li Y ，Li Y ，Ma J ，Yang X ，Wu S ，Jin J ，He Z ... -  《EClinicalMedicine》

Global, regional, and national burden of preterm birth, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis from the global burden of disease study 2021.

Preterm birth and its complications are leading causes of mortality among children under five years of age. Given the increasing burden of preterm birth on neonatal mortality and long-term health outcomes worldwide, a comprehensive global analysis is essential to guide effective public health interventions and policies. This study aims to assess the burden of preterm birth at the global, regional, and national levels. Using data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 database, this study analysed trends in age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), age-standardized mortality rates (ASMR), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) as primary outcomes for preterm birth from 1990 to 2021 at global, regional, and national levels. Data were assessed using joinpoint regression analysis, decomposition analysis, and the health inequality concentration index. Globally, the incidence, mortality and DALYs due to preterm birth have shown a declining trend, but ASIR started to increase in 2016. Males were more commonly born preterm than females (12329075.82, 95% uncertainty interval [UI]: 12192632.55-12464605.4 vs. 9224694.94, 95% UI: 9113876.1-9330107.89). Changes in DALYs were primarily due to epidemiological change (111.97%) and population (-21.59%). Low Socio-demographic Index (SDI) regions increased in annual incidence cases (43.1%, 95% UI: 40.17-46.09), while high SDI regions decreased in annual incidence cases (-9.6%, 95% UI: -11.45 to -7.79). The highest annual mortality and DALYs respectively occurred in sub-Saharan Africa (295490.66, 95% UI: 241762.78-353624.41) and South Asia (32760273.93, 95% UI: 27295547.76-39070225.69). Western sub-Saharan Africa showed the largest increase in annual incidence (98.95%, 95% UI: 94.77 to 103.09), and Australasia had the lowest annual mortality (287.18, 95% UI: 244.26-339.42) and DALYs (61081.4, 95% UI: 50897.33-73069.96). Western sub-Saharan Africa also had the highest ASMR (21.57, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 17.9-25.89). The highest ASIR (543.78, 95% CI: 535.11-553.21) and age-standardized DALYs (2064.65, 95% CI: 1717.27-2473.36) both occurred in South Asia, while the lowest ASIR and age-standardized DALYs were seen in East Asia (147.31, 95% CI: 144.22-150.85) and High-income Asia Pacific (143.32, 95% CI: 117.9-167.25). India, Nigeria, and Pakistan ranked highest globally in terms of annual incidence cases, mortality, and DALYs, while the lowest annual incidence, mortality and DALYs respectively occurred in Tokelau (2.34, 95% UI: 2.12-2.56), San Marino (0.04, 95% UI: 0.02-0.07) and Tokelau (17.22, 95% UI: 11.11-24.95). While the global burden of preterm birth has decreased, significant disparities persist, especially in low SDI regions. There is a need for more refined policies and preventive measures to effectively address preterm birth. No funds, grants, or other support was received.

Liang X ，Lyu Y ，Li J ，Li Y ，Chi C ... -  《EClinicalMedicine》

Burden of uterine cancer in China from 1990 to 2021 and 15-year projection: a systematic analysis and comparison with global levels.

Uterine cancer (UC) is one of the prevalent malignancies in the female reproductive system. Estimating the burden trends of UC is crucial for developing effective prevention strategies at the national level. However, there has been no comprehensive analysis of the UC burden in China. We focused on the evaluation of the burden trends of UC in China over the past 32 years to provide a 15-year projection, comparing it with global levels. Data on incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) were extracted from Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 to describe the burden of UC in China. Joinpoint regression analysis was employed to describe the temporal trends of UC in China and globally over the past 32 years. A Bayesian age-period-cohort model was utilized to predict the trends of UC in the next 15 years. Spearman correlation analysis was used to compare the relationship between ASIR, ASPR, ASMR, ASDR, and SDI in UC in China and globally. Changes in ASMR and ASDR in UC caused by high BMI in China and globally from 1990 to 2021 were explored. In 2021, the age-standardized incidence rate (ASIR), age-standardized prevalence rate (ASPR), age-standardized mortality rate (ASMR), and age-standardized DALY rate (ASDR) of UC in China were 6.65, 46.52, 1.24, and 37.86 (per 100,000 population) respectively. Compared to 1990, the ASMR and ASDR decreased by 48.63% and 48.15% respectively, while the ASIR and ASPR increased by 17.79% and 37.67% respectively. Globally, the burden of UC followed a similar trend in China, with increasing ASIR and ASPR, and decreasing ASMR and ASDR, although the magnitude of increase and decrease was smaller than in China. Joinpoint regression analysis results showed an overall upward trend in ASIR and ASPR for both China and global UC, while an overall downward trend was observed in ASMR and ASDR. Age-specific analysis revealed that during the period from 1990 to 2021, the age groups with the highest incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALYs for UC in China generally occurred at earlier ages compared to the global pattern. It is projected that over the next 15 years, the burden of UC in China will continue to increase at a higher rate than the global level. Spearman correlation analysis showed that ASIR and ASPR of UC in China and the world were significantly positively correlated with SDI (p < 0.05), and ASMR and ASDR were significantly negatively correlated with SDI (p < 0.001). High BMI is a risk factor affecting the mortality rate and DALYs of UC in both China and globally, with the increase in ASMR and ASDR due to high BMI being greater in China than globally. The incidence and prevalence burden of UC among Chinese and global women have shown an increasing trend over the past 32 years, while the mortality and DALYs have decreased. The projected burden of UC in China is anticipated to continue rising at a higher rate than the global level over the next 15 years. Given the large population in China, the government needs to strengthen screening and prevention strategies to mitigate the burden of UC.

Lin Z ，Gan M ，Wang X ，Su Z ... -  《Reproductive Health》

Age-standardized incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates of autoimmune diseases in adolescents and young adults (15-39 years): an analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2021.

Autoimmune diseases (ADs) present significant health challenges globally, especially among adolescents and young adults (AYAs) due to their unique developmental stages. Comprehensive analyses of their burden are limited. This study leverages the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) 2021 data to assess the global, regional, and national burden and trends of major ADs among AYAs from 1990 to 2021. Utilizing data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021 for individuals aged 15-39 years, we employed a direct method for age standardization to calculate estimates along with 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) for assessing the age-standardized incidence rates (ASIR), prevalence rates (ASPR), and mortality rates (ASMR) of ADs. The diseases analyzed included rheumatoid arthritis (RA), inflammatory bowel disease (IBD), multiple sclerosis (MS), type 1 diabetes mellitus (T1DM), Asthma, and Psoriasis. Trends from 1990 to 2021 were analyzed using Joinpoint regression, providing average annual percentage changes (AAPC) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs). In 2021, the global ASIR, ASPR, and ASMR of RA among AYAs (per 100,000 population) were 9.46 (95% UI: 5.92 to 13.54), 104.35 (77.44 to 137.84), and 0.016 (0.013 to 0.019), respectively. For IBD, the corresponding rates were 4.08 (3.07 to 5.37), 29.55 (23.00 to 37.83), and 0.10 (0.07 to 0.12). MS exhibited rates of 1.40 (0.93 to 1.93), 16.05 (12.73 to 19.75), and 0.05 (0.04 to 0.05), respectively. T1DM had rates of 6.63 (3.08 to 11.84), 245.51 (194.21 to 307.56), and 0.54 (0.47 to 0.60). Asthma demonstrated rates of 232.22 (132.11 to 361.24), 2245.51 (1671.05 to 2917.57), and 0.89 (0.77 to 1.08). Psoriasis showed rates of 55.08 (48.53 to 61.93) and 426.16 (394.12 to 460.18) for ASIR and ASPR, respectively. From 1990 to 2021, the global ASIR of RA (AAPC = 0.47, 95% CI: 0.46 to 0.49), IBD (0.22 [0.12 to 0.33]), MS (0.22 [0.19 to 0.26]), T1DM (0.83 [0.80 to 0.86]), and Psoriasis (0.33 [0.31 to 0.34]) showed increasing trends, whereas Asthma (-0.96 [-1.03 to -0.88]) showed a decreasing trend. The global ASPR of RA (0.70 [0.68 to 0.73]), MS (0.35 [0.32 to 0.37]), T1DM (0.68 [0.66 to 0.69]), and Psoriasis (0.29 [0.27 to 0.32]) also showed increasing trends, whereas IBD (-0.20 [-0.27 to -0.13]) and Asthma (-1.25 [-1.31 to -1.19]) showed decreasing trends. Notably, the estimated global ASMR of RA (-2.35 [-2.57 to -2.12]), MS (-0.63 [-0.86 to -0.41]), T1DM (-0.35 [-0.56 to -0.14]), and Asthma (-1.35 [-1.44 to -1.26]) in AYAs declined. Additionally, the burden of disease for ADs in AYAs varies considerably across continents and between 204 countries and territories. ADs among AYAs present a substantial public health burden with notable regional disparities in incidence, prevalence, and mortality rates. Understanding these patterns is essential for developing targeted public health interventions and policies to mitigate the impact of ADs in this population.

Zhao M ，Zhai H ，Li H ，Wei F ，Ma H ，Liu Y ，Li W ，Wei P ... -  《BMC PUBLIC HEALTH》

Global trends and regional differences in disease burden of stroke among children: a trend analysis based on the global burden of disease study 2019.

Stroke is a major cause of acute neurological symptoms in children with significant long-term neurological sequelae. However, data of diseases burden on stroke among children was lack. We aimed to be dedicated to analyze and compare global trends as well as regional and sociodemographic differences in stroke prevalence, incidence, mortality and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) among children aged 0 ~ 14 years. We obtained data on annual number of incident strokes, prevalent strokes, deaths, and DALYs, age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs), prevalence rates (ASPRs), mortality rates (ASMRs) and DALY rates (ASDRs) of stroke among individuals aged 14 years and younger during 1990-2019 from the 2019 Global Burden of Disease Study. To quantify the temporal trends, we calculated changes (%) in number, and used joinpoint regression analysis to identify the average annual percentage changes (AAPCs) of age standardized rates. Globally, the incident strokes and prevalent strokes increased by 18.51% and 31.97%, respectively, but DALYs due to stroke and deaths due to stroke decreased by 60.18% and 65.03%, respectively, from 1990 to 2019. During the same period, ASIR increased by 0.21% (95%CI: 0.17, 0.24) from 18.02 to 100,000 population in 1990 to 19.11 per 100,000 in 2019; ASPR increased by 0.66% (95%CI: 0.36, 0.96) from 68.88 to 100,000 population in 1990 to 81.35 per 100,000 in 2019; while ASMR (AAPC= -3.94; 95%CI: -4.07, -3.81) and ASDR (AAPC= -3.50; 95%CI: -3.64, -3.36) both decreased. In 2019, the highest age standardized incidence, prevalence, mortality, and DALY rates all occurred in low sociodemographic index (SDI) regions. The greatest increase of age standardized incidence rate (AAPC = 0.21; 95%CI: 0.18, 0.25) and prevalence rate (AAPC = 1.15; 95%CI: 0.34, 1.96) both were in high SDI regions. Eastern Sub-Saharan Africa had the highest ASIR and ASPR in 2019, and Oceania had the highest ASMR and ASDR in 2019 across 21 GBD regions. High-income North America had the largest increase in ASIR (AAPC = 0.63; 95%CI: 0.59, 0.66) and ASPR (AAPC = 1.58; 95%CI: 0.54, 2.63). Against the overall decreasing trend of ASMR, an increasing trend of ASMR was found in Zimbabwe (AAPC = 0.91; 95%CI: 0.44, 1.37) and Botswana (AAPC = 0.74; 95%CI: 0.02, 1.47). The overall increasing stroke incidence and prevalence indicated that prevention and management of stroke among younger population should be critical in the future. Despite stroke mortality with falling trend worldwide, specific countries or territories present worrying increase in stroke mortality. Without urgent implementation of effective primary prevention strategies, the stroke burden of children will probably continue to grow across the world, particularly in high-SDI countries.

Du M ，Mi D ，Liu M ，Liu J ... -  《BMC PUBLIC HEALTH》