Incidence and development of validated mortality prediction model among asphyxiated neonates admitted to neonatal intensive care unit at Felege Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Bahir Dar, Northwest Ethiopia, 2021: retrospective follow-up study.

Perinatal asphyxia is failure to maintain normal breathing at birth. World Health Organization indicates that perinatal asphyxia is the third major cause of neonatal mortality in developing countries accounting for 23% of neonatal deaths every year. At global and national level efforts have done to reduce neonatal mortality, however fatalities from asphyxia remains high in Ethiopia (24%). And there are no sufficient studies to show incidence and prediction of mortality among asphyxiated neonates. Developing validated risk prediction model is one of the crucial strategies to improve neonatal outcomes with asphyxia. Therefore, this study will help to screen asphyxiated neonate at high-risk for mortality during admission by easily accessible predictors. This study aimed to determine the incidence and develop validated Mortality Prediction model among asphyxiated neonates admitted to the Neonatal Intensive Care Unit at Felege-Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Bahir Dar, Ethiopia. Retrospective follow-up study was conducted at Felege-Hiwot Comprehensive Specialized Hospital from September 1, 2017, to March 31, 2021. Simple random sampling was used to select 774 neonates, and 738 were reviewed. Since was data Secondary, it was collected by checklist. After the description of the data by table and graph, Univariable with p-value < 0.25, and stepwise multivariable analysis with p-value < 0.05 were done to develop final reduced prediction model by likelihood ratio test. To improve clinical utility, we developed a simplified risk score to classify asphyxiated neonates at high or low-risk of mortality. The accuracy of the model was evaluated using area under curve, and calibration plot. To measures all accuracy internal validation using bootstrapping technique were assessed. We evaluated the clinical impact of the model using a decision curve analysis across various threshold probabilities. Incidence of neonatal mortality with asphyxia was 27.2% (95% CI: 24.1, 30.6). Rural residence, bad obstetric history, amniotic fluid status, multiple pregnancy, birth weight (< 2500 g), hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (stage II and III), and failure to suck were identified in the final risk prediction score. The area under the curve for mortality using 7 predictors was 0.78 (95% CI 0.74 to 0.82). With ≥ 7 cutoffs the sensitivity and specificity of risk prediction score were 0.64 and 0.82 respectively. Incidence of neonatal mortality with asphyxia was high. The risk prediction score had good discrimination power built by rural residence, bad obstetric history, stained amniotic fluid, multiple pregnancy, birth weight (< 2500 g), hypoxic-ischemic encephalopathy (stage II and III), and failure to suck. Thus, using this score chart and improve neonatal and maternal service reduce mortality among asphyxiated neonates.

Tegegne YS ，Birhan TY ，Takele H ，Mekonnen FA ... -  《BMC Pediatrics》

Incidence and predictors of mortality among low birth weight neonates in the first week of life admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit in Northwestern Ethiopia comprehensive specialized hospitals, 2022. Multi-center institution-based retrospective f

Globally, a high number of neonatal mortalities occurs in the first week of life, particularly among low birth weight neonates in low-income countries, including Ethiopia. However, there is limited evidence on the early neonatal mortality of low-birth-weight neonates in Ethiopia. Therefore, this study aimed to assess incidence and predictors of mortality among low-birth-weight neonates in their first week of life admitted to the neonatal intensive care unit in Northwestern Ethiopia Comprehensive Specialized Hospitals, 2022. A multi-center retrospective follow-up study was conducted from March 21, 2020 to March 1, 2022, among 761 early neonates with low birth weight admitted in Northwestern Ethiopia Comprehensive Specialized Hospitals. The study participants were selected using simple random sampling technique. Data were collected using a data abstraction checklist ,and checked for completeness and entered into EPI data version 4.6, then exported to STATA 14 for analysis. Kaplan Meier failure curve and log-rank test were used to estimate and compare the probability of death. Both bivariable and multivariable Weibull regression models were fitted to identify predictors of mortality. Finally, a hazard ratio with 95% CI was computed, and variables having a p-value < 0.05 were considered as a significant predictor of mortality. The incidence of mortality among low birth weight neonates in their first week of life was 75.63 per 1000 neonate day observation (95% CI: 66.76-85.67), preeclampsia (AHR = 1.77;95% CI:1.32-2.36s), perinatal asphyxia (AHR = 1.64; 95% CI:1.14-2.36), respiratory distress syndrome (AHR = 1.76 95% CI;1.31-2.34), necrotizing enterocolitis (AHR = 2.78 95% CI;1.79-4.32), prematurity (AHR = 1.86; 95% CI:1.30-2.67), and birth weight < 1000gram (AHR = 3.13;95% CI: 1.91-5.12) and 1000-1499 gram (AHR = 1.99; 95% CI:1.47-2.68) were predictors. The incidence of early neonatal mortality in low birth weight neonates was incredibly higher than the overall early neonatal mortality in Northwest Ethiopia (Amhara region). Preeclampsia, perinatal asphyxia, respiratory distress syndrome, necrotizing enterocolitis, prematurity, and birth weight were predictors of mortality. Therefore, stakeholders shall give early identification and emphasis on preventable and treatable predictors. Furthermore, the health care provider shall give education about the importance of breastfeeding, and Antenatal and postnatal care.

Wondie WT ，Zeleke KA ，Wubneh CA 《BMC Pediatrics》

Incidence and predictors of mortality among neonates admitted with birth asphyxia to neonatal intensive care unit of West Shewa Zone Public Hospitals, Central Ethiopia.

Bekele GG ，Roga EY ，Gonfa DN ，Geda GM ... -  《-》

Survival and predictors of asphyxia among neonates admitted in neonatal intensive care units of public hospitals of Addis Ababa, Ethiopia, 2021: a retrospective follow-up study.

Globally, perinatal asphyxia (PNA) is a significant cause of most neonatal deaths. Similarly, the burden of birth asphyxia in Ethiopia remains high (22.52%) and has been noted the second leading cause of neonatal mortality. Thus, researches on survival status and predictors of perinatal asphyxia are critical to tackle it. Therefore, the current study intended to determine the survival status and predictors of asphyxia among neonates admitted in Neonatal Intensive Care Units of public hospitals, Addis Ababa, Ethiopia. Hospital-based retrospective follow-up study was conducted in four selected public hospitals of Addis Ababa from January 2016 to December 2020. Data were collected using a pretested structured questionnaire. Epi-data 4.6 and STATA Version 16 was used for data entry and analysis, respectively. Kaplan-Meier survival curve, log-rank test and Median time were computed. To find the predictors of time to recovery, a multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was fitted, and variables with a P-value less than 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Finally, the Schoenfeld residual test was used to check overall model fitness. Four hundred eleven admitted asphyxiated babies were followed a total of 3062 neonate-days with a minimum of 1 h to a maximum of 28 days. The Overall incidence density rate of survival was 10 (95% CI: 0.08-0.11) per 100 neonate-days of observation with a median recovery time of 8 days (95% CI: 7.527-8.473). Low birth weight (Adjusted hazard ratio [AHR]: 0.67, 95% CI: 0.47-0.96), stage II hypoxic ischemic encephalopathy (HIE) (AHR: 0.70, 95% CI: 0.51-0.97), stage III HIE (AHR: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.27-0.71), seizure (AHR: 0.61, 95% CI: 0.38-0.97), thrombocytopenia (AHR: 0.44, 95% CI: 0.24-0.80) and calcium gluconate (AHR: 0.75, 95% CI: 0.58-0.99) were found to be independent predictors of time to recovery of asphyxiated neonates. In the current findings, the recovery time was prolonged compared to others finding. This implies early prevention, strict monitoring and taking appropriate measures timely is mandatory before babies transferred into highest stage of HIE and managing complications are recommended to hasten recovery time and increase survival of neonates.

Getaneh FB ，Sebsbie G ，Adimasu M ，Misganaw NM ，Jember DA ，Mihretie DB ，Abeway S ，Bitew ZW ... -  《BMC Pediatrics》

Time to recovery of asphyxiated neonates and its' predictors among newborns admitted to neonatal intensive care unit at Debre Berhan Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, Ethiopia.

Neonatal asphyxia is a leading cause of early neonatal mortality, accounting for approximately 900,000 deaths each year. Assessing survival rates, recovery time and predictors of mortality among asphyxiated neonates can help policymakers design, implement, and evaluate programs to achieve the sustainable development goal of reducing neonatal mortality to 12/1,000 live births by 2030. The current study sought to ascertain the survival status, recovery time, and predictors of neonatal asphyxia. A retrospective follow-up study conducted in Debre Berhan Comprehensive Specialized Hospital, which carried out from May 20th to June 20th, 2023 using records of asphyxiated babies in NICUs from January 1st, 2020 to December 31st, 2022, involving a sample size of 330. Pre-structured questionnaires created in Google Form were used to collect data, and STATA Version 14.0 was utilized for data entry and analysis, respectively. The Kaplan-Meier survival curve, log rank test, and median time were calculated. A multivariable Cox proportional hazards regression model was fitted in order to determine the predictors of time to recovery. Variables were statistically significant if their p-value was less than 0.05. Three hundred thirty admitted asphyxiated neonates were followed a total of 2706 neonate -days with a minimum of 1 day to 18 days. The overall incidence density rate of survival was 9.9 per 100 neonates' days of observation (95% CI: 8.85-11.24) with a median recovery time of 9 days (95% CI: 0.82-0.93). Prolonged labor (Adjusted hazard ratio (AHR: 0.42,95%CI:0.21-0.81), normal birth weight (AHR:2.21,95% CI: 1.30-3.70),non-altered consciousness (AHR:2.52,CI:1.50-4.24),non-depressed moro reflex of the newborn (AHR:2.40,95%CI: 1.03-5.61), stage I HIE (AHR: 5.11,95% CI: 1.98-13.19),and direct oxygen administration via the nose (AHR: 4.18,95% CI: 2.21-7.89) were found to be independent predictors of time to recovery of asphyxiated neonates.. In the current findings, the recovery time was prolonged compared to other findings. This implies early diagnosis, strict monitoring and provision of appropriate measures timely is necessary before the babies complicated into the highest stage of hypoxic -ischemic encephalopathy(HIE) and managing complications are the recommended to hasten recovery time and increase the survival of neonates.

Yehouala SG ，Tesfahun E ，Dejene TM ，Gebreegziabher ZA ... -  《BMC PUBLIC HEALTH》