Trends, influencing factors and prediction analysis of under-five and maternal mortality rates in China from 1991 to 2020.

Under-five mortality rate (U5MR) and maternal mortality rate (MMR) are important indicators for evaluating the quality of perinatal health and child health services in a country or region, and are research priorities for promoting maternal and infant safety and maternal and child health. This paper aimed to analysis and predict the trends of U5MR and MMR in China, to explore the impact of social health services and economic factors on U5MR and MMR, and to provide a basis for relevant departments to formulate relevant policies and measures. The JoinPoint regression model was established to conduct time trend analysis and describe the trend of neonatal mortality rate (NMR), infant mortality rate (IMR), U5MR and MMR in China from 1991 to 2020. The linear mixed effect model was used to assess the fixed effects of maternal health care services and socioeconomic factors on U5MR and MMR were explored, with year as a random effect to minimize the effect of collinearity. Auto regressive integrated moving average models (ARIMA) were built to predict U5MR and MMR from 2021 to 2025. The NMR, IMR, U5MR and MMR from 1991 to 2020 in China among national, urban and rural areas showed continuous downward trends. The NMR, IMR, U5MR and MMR were significantly negatively correlated with gross domestic product (GDP), the proportion of the total health expenditure (THE) to GDP, system management rate, prenatal care rate, post-natal visit rate and hospital delivery rate. The predicted values of national U5MR from 2021 to 2025 were 7.3 ‰, 7.2 ‰, 7.1 ‰, 7.1 ‰ and 7.2 ‰ and the predicted values of national MMR were 13.8/100000, 12.1/100000, 10.6/100000, 9.6/100000 and 8.3/100000. China has made great achievements in reducing the U5MR and MMR. It is necessary for achieving the goals of Healthy China 2030 by promoting the equalization of basic public health services and further optimizing the allocation of government health resources. China's experience in reducing U5MR and MMR can be used as a reference for developing countries to realize the SDGs.

Zhang M ，Qu H ，Xia J ，Hui X ，Shi C ，Xu F ，He J ，Cao Y ，Hu M ... -  《Frontiers in Public Health》

Analysis of inequality in maternal and child health outcomes and mortality from 2000 to 2013 in China.

Li Y ，Zhang Y ，Fang S ，Liu S ，Liu X ，Li M ，Liang H ，Fu H ... -  《International Journal for Equity in Health》

Trends in maternal and child health in China and its urban and rural areas from 1991 to 2020: a joinpoint regression model.

The long-term trends in maternal and child health (MCH) in China and the national-level factors that may be associated with these changes have been poorly explored. This study aimed to assess trends in MCH indicators nationally and separately in urban and rural areas and the impact of public policies over a 30‒year period. An ecological study was conducted using data on neonatal mortality rate (NMR), infant mortality rate (IMR), under-five mortality rate (U5MR), and maternal mortality ratio (MMR) nationally and separately in urban and rural areas in China from 1991 to 2020. Joinpoint regression models were used to estimate the annual percentage changes (APC), average annual percentage changes (AAPC) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs), and mortality differences between urban and rural areas. From 1991 to 2020, maternal and child mortalities in China gradually declined (national AAPC [95% CI]: NMRs - 7.7% [- 8.6%, - 6.8%], IMRs - 7.5% [- 8.4%, - 6.6%], U5MRs - 7.5% [- 8.5%, - 6.5%], MMRs - 5.0% [- 5.7%, - 4.4%]). However, the rate of decline nationally in child mortality slowed after 2005, and in maternal mortality after 2013. For all indicators, the decline in mortality was greater in rural areas than in urban areas. The AAPCs in rate differences between rural and urban areas were - 8.5% for NMRs, - 8.6% for IMRs, - 7.7% for U5MRs, and - 9.6% for MMRs. The AAPCs in rate ratios (rural vs. urban) were - 1.2 for NMRs, - 2.1 for IMRs, - 1.7 for U5MRs, and - 1.9 for MMRs. After 2010, urban‒rural disparity in MMR did not diminish and in NMR, IMR, and U5MR, it gradually narrowed but persisted. MCH indicators have declined at the national level as well as separately in urban and rural areas but may have reached a plateau. Urban‒rural disparities in MCH indicators have narrowed but still exist. Regular analyses of temporal trends in MCH are necessary to assess the effectiveness of measures for timely adjustments.

Wang XY ，Zhang BB ，Cao YY ，Xue Q ，Ye Q ，Li YS ，Wang SY ，Ma YW ，Sun YQ ，Zhang JH ... -  《Scientific Reports》

Child mortality patterns in rural areas of Anhui and Henan provinces in China, 1990.

Jin SG ，Yang GH ，Bos E ，Wang J ，Luo JH ，Yang J ，Ma EB ，Tong MX ，Jamison D ... -  《BIOMEDICAL AND ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES》

Trends in under-five mortality rate in China, 1996-2020: a Joinpoint regression and correlation analysis.

Lv JM ，Chen N ，He XN ，Tian YF ，Zhang J ，Fan QR ，Ma Q ，Li HX ... -  《BMJ Open》