Predicting survival in patients with 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding receiving β-blockers+ligation to prevent re-bleeding.

Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS) is the treatment of choice for high-risk acute variceal bleeding (AVB; i.e., Child-Turcotte-Pugh [CTP] B8-9+active bleeding/C10-13). Nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation for secondary prophylaxis. We investigated prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' AVB to identify subgroups who may benefit from more potent treatments (i.e., TIPS) to prevent further decompensation and mortality. A total of 2,225 adults with cirrhosis and variceal bleeding were prospectively recruited at 34 centres between 2011-2015; for the purpose of this study, case definitions and information on prognostic indicators at index AVB and on day 5 were further refined in low-risk patients, of whom 581 (without failure to control bleeding or contraindications to TIPS) who were managed by non-selective beta-blockers/endoscopic variceal ligation, were finally included. Patients were followed for 1 year. Overall, 90 patients (15%) re-bled and 70 (12%) patients died during follow-up. Using clinical routine data, no meaningful predictors of re-bleeding were identified. However, re-bleeding (included as a time-dependent co-variable) increased mortality, even after accounting for differences in patient characteristics (adjusted cause-specific hazard ratio: 2.57; 95% CI 1.43-4.62; p = 0.002). A nomogram including CTP, creatinine, and sodium measured at baseline accurately (concordance: 0.752) stratified the risk of death. The majority of 'non-high-risk' patients with AVB have an excellent prognosis, if treated according to current recommendations. However, about one-fifth of patients, i.e. those with CTP ≥8 and/or high creatinine levels or hyponatremia, have a considerable risk of death within 1 year of the index bleed. Future clinical trials should investigate whether elective TIPS placement reduces mortality in these patients. Pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in high-risk acute variceal bleeding; nevertheless, some 'non-high-risk' patients have poor outcomes despite the combination of non-selective beta-blockers and endoscopic variceal ligation. This is the first large-scale study investigating prognostic factors for re-bleeding and mortality in 'non-high-risk' acute variceal bleeding. While no clinically meaningful predictors were identified for re-bleeding, we developed a nomogram integrating baseline Child-Turcotte-Pugh score, creatinine, and sodium to stratify mortality risk. Our study paves the way for future clinical trials evaluating whether elective transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt placement improves outcomes in presumably 'non-high-risk' patients who are identified as being at increased risk of death.

Balcar L ，Mandorfer M ，Hernández-Gea V ，Procopet B ，Meyer EL ，Giráldez Á ，Amitrano L ，Villanueva C ，Thabut D ，Samaniego LI ，Silva-Junior G ，Martinez J ，Genescà J ，Bureau C ，Trebicka J ，Herrera EL ，Laleman W ，Palazón Azorín JM ，Alonso JC ，Gluud LL ，Ferreira CN ，Cañete N ，Rodríguez M ，Ferlitsch A ，Mundi JL ，Grønbæk H ，Hernandez Guerra MN ，Sassatelli R ，Dell'Era A ，Senzolo M ，Abraldes JG ，Romero-Gómez M ，Zipprich A ，Casas M ，Masnou H ，Primignani M ，Krag A ，Nevens F ，Calleja JL ，Jansen C ，Catalina MV ，Albillos A ，Rudler M ，Tapias EA ，Guardascione MA ，Tantau M ，Schwarzer R ，Reiberger T ，Laursen SB ，Lopez-Gomez M ，Cachero A ，Ferrarese A ，Ripoll C ，La Mura V ，Bosch J ，García-Pagán JC ，International Variceal Bleeding Observational Study Group by the Baveno Cooperation: an EASL consortium ... -  《-》

Secondary prevention of variceal bleeding in adults with previous oesophageal variceal bleeding due to decompensated liver cirrhosis: a network meta-analysis.

Approximately 40% to 95% of people with cirrhosis have oesophageal varices. About 15% to 20% of oesophageal varices bleed in about one to three years of diagnosis. Several different treatments are available, which include endoscopic sclerotherapy, variceal band ligation, beta-blockers, transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt (TIPS), and surgical portocaval shunts, among others. However, there is uncertainty surrounding their individual and relative benefits and harms. To compare the benefits and harms of different initial treatments for secondary prevention of variceal bleeding in adults with previous oesophageal variceal bleeding due to decompensated liver cirrhosis through a network meta-analysis and to generate rankings of the different treatments for secondary prevention according to their safety and efficacy. We searched CENTRAL, MEDLINE, Embase, Science Citation Index Expanded, World Health Organization International Clinical Trials Registry Platform, and trials registers until December 2019 to identify randomised clinical trials in people with cirrhosis and a previous history of bleeding from oesophageal varices. We included only randomised clinical trials (irrespective of language, blinding, or status) in adults with cirrhosis and previous history of bleeding from oesophageal varices. We excluded randomised clinical trials in which participants had no previous history of bleeding from oesophageal varices, previous history of bleeding only from gastric varices, those who failed previous treatment (refractory bleeding), those who had acute bleeding at the time of treatment, and those who had previously undergone liver transplantation. We performed a network meta-analysis with OpenBUGS using Bayesian methods and calculated the differences in treatments using hazard ratios (HR), odds ratios (OR) and rate ratios with 95% credible intervals (CrI) based on an available-case analysis, according to National Institute of Health and Care Excellence Decision Support Unit guidance. We included a total of 48 randomised clinical trials (3526 participants) in the review. Forty-six trials (3442 participants) were included in one or more comparisons. The trials that provided the information included people with cirrhosis due to varied aetiologies. The follow-up ranged from two months to 61 months. All the trials were at high risk of bias. A total of 12 interventions were compared in these trials (sclerotherapy, beta-blockers, variceal band ligation, beta-blockers plus sclerotherapy, no active intervention, TIPS (transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt), beta-blockers plus nitrates, portocaval shunt, sclerotherapy plus variceal band ligation, beta-blockers plus nitrates plus variceal band ligation, beta-blockers plus variceal band ligation, sclerotherapy plus nitrates). Overall, 22.5% of the trial participants who received the reference treatment (chosen because this was the commonest treatment compared in the trials) of sclerotherapy died during the follow-up period ranging from two months to 61 months. There was considerable uncertainty in the effects of interventions on mortality. Accordingly, none of the interventions showed superiority over another. None of the trials reported health-related quality of life. Based on low-certainty evidence, variceal band ligation may result in fewer serious adverse events (number of people) than sclerotherapy (OR 0.19; 95% CrI 0.06 to 0.54; 1 trial; 100 participants). Based on low or very low-certainty evidence, the adverse events (number of participants) and adverse events (number of events) may be different across many comparisons; however, these differences are due to very small trials at high risk of bias showing large differences in some comparisons leading to many differences despite absence of direct evidence. Based on low-certainty evidence, TIPS may result in large decrease in symptomatic rebleed than variceal band ligation (HR 0.12; 95% CrI 0.03 to 0.41; 1 trial; 58 participants). Based on moderate-certainty evidence, any variceal rebleed was probably lower in sclerotherapy than in no active intervention (HR 0.62; 95% CrI 0.35 to 0.99, direct comparison HR 0.66; 95% CrI 0.11 to 3.13; 3 trials; 296 participants), beta-blockers plus sclerotherapy than sclerotherapy alone (HR 0.60; 95% CrI 0.37 to 0.95; direct comparison HR 0.50; 95% CrI 0.07 to 2.96; 4 trials; 231 participants); TIPS than sclerotherapy (HR 0.18; 95% CrI 0.08 to 0.38; direct comparison HR 0.22; 95% CrI 0.01 to 7.51; 2 trials; 109 participants), and in portocaval shunt than sclerotherapy (HR 0.21; 95% CrI 0.05 to 0.77; no direct comparison) groups. Based on low-certainty evidence, beta-blockers alone and TIPS might result in more, other compensation, events than sclerotherapy (rate ratio 2.37; 95% CrI 1.35 to 4.67; 1 trial; 65 participants and rate ratio 2.30; 95% CrI 1.20 to 4.65; 2 trials; 109 participants; low-certainty evidence). The evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about the effect of the interventions including those related to beta-blockers plus variceal band ligation in the remaining comparisons. The evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about the effect of the interventions on mortality. Variceal band ligation might result in fewer serious adverse events than sclerotherapy. TIPS might result in a large decrease in symptomatic rebleed than variceal band ligation. Sclerotherapy probably results in fewer 'any' variceal rebleeding than no active intervention. Beta-blockers plus sclerotherapy and TIPS probably result in fewer 'any' variceal rebleeding than sclerotherapy. Beta-blockers alone and TIPS might result in more other compensation events than sclerotherapy. The evidence indicates considerable uncertainty about the effect of the interventions in the remaining comparisons. Accordingly, high-quality randomised comparative clinical trials are needed.

Plaz Torres MC ，Best LM ，Freeman SC ，Roberts D ，Cooper NJ ，Sutton AJ ，Roccarina D ，Benmassaoud A ，Iogna Prat L ，Williams NR ，Csenar M ，Fritche D ，Begum T ，Arunan S ，Tapp M ，Milne EJ ，Pavlov CS ，Davidson BR ，Tsochatzis E ，Gurusamy KS ... -  《Cochrane Database of Systematic Reviews》

Effects of Early Placement of Transjugular Portosystemic Shunts in Patients With High-Risk Acute Variceal Bleeding: a Meta-analysis of Individual Patient Data.

Compared with drugs plus endoscopy, placement of transjugular portosystemic shunt within 72 hours of admission to the hospital (early or preventive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt [TIPS], also called preemptive TIPS) increases the proportion of high-risk patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding who survive for 1 year. However, the benefit of preemptive TIPS is less clear for patients with a Child-Pugh score of B and active bleeding (CP-B+AB). We performed an individual data meta-analysis to assess the efficacy of preemptive TIPS in these patients and identify factors associated with reduced survival of patients receiving preemptive TIPS. We searched publication databases for randomized controlled trials and observational studies comparing the effects of preemptive TIPS versus endoscopy plus nonselective beta-blockers in the specific population of high-risk patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (CP-B+AB or Child-Pugh C, below 14 points), through December 31, 2019. We performed a meta-analysis of data from 7 studies (3 randomized controlled trials and 4 observational studies), comprising 1327 patients (310 received preemptive TIPS and 1017 received drugs plus endoscopy). We built adjusted models to evaluate risk using propensity score for baseline covariates. Multivariate Cox regression models were used to assess the factors associated with survival time. The primary endpoint was effects of preemptive TIPS versus drugs plus endoscopy on 1-year survival in the overall population as well as CP-B+AB and Child-Pugh C patients. Overall, preemptive TIPS significantly increased the proportion of high-risk patients with cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding who survived for 1 year, compared with drugs plus endoscopy (hazard ratio [HR] 0.443; 95% CI 0.323-0.607; P < .001). This effect was observed in CP-B+AB patients (HR 0.524; 95% CI 0.307-0.896; P = .018) and in patients with Child-Pugh C scores below 14 points (HR 0.374; 95% CI 0.253-0.553; P < .001). Preemptive TIPS significantly improved control of bleeding and ascites without increasing risk of hepatic encephalopathy in Child-Pugh C and CP-B+AB patients, compared with drugs plus endoscopy. Cox analysis of patients who received preemptive TIPS showed that patients could be classified into 3 categories for risk of death, based on age, serum level of creatinine, and Child-Pugh score. In each of these risk categories, preemptive TIPS increased the proportion of patients who survived for 1 year, compared with drugs plus endoscopy. In a meta-analysis of data from 1327 patients with cirrhosis, acute variceal bleeding, and Child-Pugh score between 10 and 13 points or CP-B+AB, preemptive TIPS increased the proportion who survived for 1 year, in both subgroups separately, compared with drugs plus endoscopy.

Nicoară-Farcău O ，Han G ，Rudler M ，Angrisani D ，Monescillo A ，Torres F ，Casanovas G ，Bosch J ，Lv Y ，Thabut D ，Fan D ，Hernández-Gea V ，García-Pagán JC ，Preemptive TIPS Individual Data Metanalysis, International Variceal Bleeding Study and Baveno Cooperation Study groups ... -  《-》

CLIF-C AD score predicts survival benefit from pre-emptive TIPS in individuals with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding.

Among individuals with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding (AVB), the Baveno VII workshop recommended pre-emptive TIPS in those with a Child-Pugh score of 8-9 and active bleeding at initial endoscopy (Child B8-9 + AB criteria). Nevertheless, whether this criterion is superior to the CLIF-Consortium acute decompensation score (CLIF-C ADs) remains unclear. Data on 1,021 consecutive individuals with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB from 13 university hospitals in China who were treated with pre-emptive TIPS (n = 297) or drug plus endoscopic treatment (n = 724) between 2010 to 2019 were retrospectively analysed. A competing risk regression model was used to compare the outcomes between the two groups after adjusting for confounders. The concordance-statistic for benefit (c-for-benefit) was used to evaluate a models' ability to predict treatment benefit (risk difference between treatment groups). Pre-emptive TIPS was associated with reduced mortality compared to drug plus endoscopic treatment (adjusted hazard ratio 0.62, 95% CI 0.44 to 0.88). A higher baseline CLIF-C AD score was associated with greater survival benefit (i.e., larger absolute mortality risk reduction). After adjusting for confounders, a survival benefit was observed in individuals with CLIF-C ADs ≥48 or Child-Pugh B8-9 with active bleeding, but not in those with CILF-C ADs <48, no active bleeding or Child-Pugh B7 with active bleeding. The c-for-benefit of CILF-C ADs for predicting survival benefit was higher than that of Child B8-9+AB criteria. In individuals with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and AVB, CLIF-C ADs predicts survival benefit from pre-emptive TIPS and outperforms the Child B8-9+AB criteria. Prospective validation should be performed to confirm this result, especially for other aetiologies of cirrhosis. In this study, among individuals with Child-Pugh B cirrhosis and acute variceal bleeding, the CLIF-Consortium acute decompensation (CLIF-C AD) score could predict the survival benefit from pre-emptive TIPS, with patients with higher CLIF-C AD scores benefiting more from pre-emptive TIPS. Furthermore, the CLIF-C AD score outperformed the Child B8-9 plus active bleeding criteria in terms of discriminating between those who obtained more benefit vs. less benefit from pre-emptive TIPS. Depending on prospective validation, the CLIF-C AD score could be used as the model of choice to determine who should undergo pre-emptive TIPS.

Lv Y ，Bai W ，Zhu X ，Xue H ，Zhao J ，Zhuge Y ，Sun J ，Zhang C ，Ding P ，Jiang Z ，Zhu X ，Ren W ，Li Y ，Zhang K ，Zhang W ，Li K ，Wang Z ，Luo B ，Li X ，Yang Z ，Wang Q ，Guo W ，Xia D ，Yang C ，Pan Y ，Yin Z ，Fan D ，Han G ... -  《-》

Precision medicine in variceal bleeding: Are we there yet?

Variceal bleeding is one of the most feared complications of portal hypertension in patients with cirrhosis because of its deleterious impact on prognosis. Adequate management of patients at risk of developing variceal bleeding includes the prevention of the first episode of variceal bleeding and rebleeding, and is crucial in modifying prognosis. The presence of clinically significant portal hypertension is the main factor determining the risk of development of varices and other liver-related decompensations; therefore, it should be carefully screened for and monitored. Treating patients with clinically significant portal hypertension based on their individual risk of portal hypertension-related bleeding undoubtedly improves prognosis. The evaluation of liver haemodynamics and liver function can stratify patients according to their risk of bleeding and are no question useful tools to guide therapy in an individualised manner. That said, recent data support the idea that tailoring therapy to patient characteristics may effectively impact on prognosis and increase survival in all clinical scenarios. This review will focus on evaluating the available evidence supporting the use of individual risk characteristics for clinical decision-making and their impact on clinical outcome and survival. In primary prophylaxis, identification and treatment of patients with clinically significant portal hypertension improves decompensation-free survival. In the setting of acute variceal bleeding, the risk of failure and rebleeding can be easily predicted, allowing for early escalation of treatment (i.e. pre-emptive transjugular intrahepatic portosystemic shunt) which can improve survival in appropriate candidates. Stratifying the risk of recurrent variceal bleeding based on liver function and haemodynamic response to non-selective beta-blockers allows for tailored treatment, thereby increasing survival and avoiding adverse events.

Magaz M ，Baiges A ，Hernández-Gea V 《-》