Global, regional, and national burden of cardiovascular diseases in youths and young adults aged 15-39 years in 204 countries/territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis of Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Understanding the temporal trends in the burden of overall and type-specific cardiovascular diseases (CVDs) in youths and young adults and its attributable risk factors is important for effective and targeted prevention strategies and measures. We aimed to provide a standardized and comprehensive estimation of the prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and mortality rate of CVDs and its associated risk factors in youths and young adults aged 15-39 years at global, regional, and national levels. We applied Global Burden of Disease, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019 analytical tools to calculate the age-standardized incidence, prevalence, DALY, and mortality rate of overall and type-specific CVDs (i.e., rheumatic heart disease, ischemic heart disease, stroke, hypertensive heart disease, non-rheumatic valvular heart disease, cardiomyopathy and myocarditis, atrial fibrillation and flutter, aortic aneurysm, and endocarditis) among youths and young adults aged 15-39 years by age, sex, region, sociodemographic index and across 204 countries/territories from 1990 to 2019, and proportional DALY of CVDs attributable to associated risk factors. The global age-standardized DALY (per 100,000 population) for CVDs in youths and young adults significantly decreased from 1257.51 (95% confidence interval 1257.03, 1257.99) in 1990 to 990.64 (990.28, 990.99) in 2019 with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of - 0.81% (- 1.04%, - 0.58%, P < 0.001), and the age-standardized mortality rate also significantly decreased from 19.83 (19.77, 19.89) to 15.12 (15.08, 15.16) with an AAPC of - 0.93% (- 1.21%, - 0.66%, P < 0.001). However, the global age-standardized incidence rate (per 100,000 population) moderately increased from 126.80 (126.65, 126.95) in 1990 to 129.85 (129.72, 129.98) in 2019 with an AAPC of 0.08% (0.00%, 0.16%, P = 0.040), and the age-standardized prevalence rate significantly increased from 1477.54 (1477.03, 1478.06) to 1645.32 (1644.86, 1645.78) with an AAPC of 0.38% (0.35%, 0.40%, P < 0.001). In terms of type-specific CVDs, the age-standardized incidence and prevalence rate in rheumatic heart disease, prevalence rate in ischemic heart disease, and incidence rate in endocarditis increased from 1990 to 2019 (all P < 0.001). When stratified by sociodemographic index (SDI), the countries/territories with low and low-middle SDI had a higher burden of CVDs than the countries/territories with high and high-middle SDI. Women had a higher prevalence rate of CVDs than men, whereas men had a higher DALY and mortality rate than women. High systolic blood pressure, high body mass index, and low-density lipoprotein cholesterol were the main attributable risk factors for DALY of CVDs for all included countries and territories. Household air pollution from solid fuels was an additional attributable risk factor for DALY of CVDs in low and low-middle SDI countries compared with middle, high-middle, and high SDI countries. Compared with women, DALY for CVDs in men was more likely to be affected by almost all risk factors, especially for smoking. There is a substantial global burden of CVDs in youths and young adults in 2019. The burden of overall and type-specific CVDs varied by age, sex, SDI, region, and country. CVDs in young people are largely preventable, which deserve more attention in the targeted implementation of effective primary prevention strategies and expansion of young-people's responsive healthcare systems.

Sun J ，Qiao Y ，Zhao M ，Magnussen CG ，Xi B ... -  《BMC Medicine》

Global burden of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease in older adults (60-89 years old), 1990-2019: Systematic analysis of the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

Understanding the global burden and risk factors of non-rheumatic valvular heart disease (NRVHD) in older adults is important for effective disease control. We wanted to analyze the prevalence, incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALY) rate, mortality rate, and risk factors of NRVHD in older adults aged 60-89 years. Global Burden of Disease Study (GBD) 2019 was used as the data source. Age standardized incidence rate, prevalence, DALY rate, and mortality rate of NRVHD among older adults aged 60-89 years from 1990 to 2019. We analyzed different age groups, genders, regions, sociodemographic index (SDI) across 204 countries/territories. Proportional DALY and mortality attributable to risk factors were calculated. Globally, age-standardized DALY rate (per 100,000 population) for NRVHD in older adults decreased significantly from 44.46 (95 % confidence interval 39.95 to 49.18) in 1990 to 35.94 (32.32 to 40.19) in 2019 with an average annual percent change (AAPC) of -0.19 % (-0.24 % to -0.14 %), and the mortality rate also decreased significantly from 2.48 (2.21 to 2.64) to 2.25 (1.89 to 2.47) with an AAPC of -0.09 % (-0.16 % to -0.03 %,). However, the age-standardized incidence rate (per 100,000 population) increased from 18.37 (17.41 to 19.35) in 1990 to 19.77(18.62 to 20.95) in 2019 with an AAPC of 0.08 % (0.05 % to 0.10 %), and the age-standardized prevalence rate significantly increased from 391.40 (372.71 to 411.20) to 399.50 (378.31 to 420.75) with an AAPC of 0.02 % (0.00 % to 0.05 %). At the regional level, the greatest burden of NRVHD was seen in parts of high-income North America. At the national level, the highest age standardized incidence rate, age standardized DALY rate, and age standardized mortality rate in 2019 were all from Niger, Philippines and Belarus, making it the region with the greatest burden of NRVHD. The age standardized incidence and DALY rate were higher in women 20.83 (19.68 to 22.02) than in men 18.64 (17.39 to 19.88) globally, while the mortality rate was similar in different genders. The differences between men and women in incidence, DALY and mortality were mainly found in age groups of 80-84 and 85-89 years. A significant negative association was found between estimated annual percentage change (EAPCs) and age standardized rate (q=-0.19, p = 0.00). A significant positive relation was detected between EAPCs and human development index (q = 0.17, p = 0.02). The main attributable risk factor for DALY was high body mass index in all regions by SDI. There is a substantial global burden of NRVHD in older adults in 2019, which is varied by age, gender, SDI and region. NRVHD in older people should be paid attention to. Risk factors described here should provide more evidence and clues for disease prevention in the future.

Dou Z ，Lai X ，Zhong X ，Hu S ，Shi Y ，Jia J ... -  《-》

Temporal trend and attributable risk factors of cardiovascular diseases burden for adults 55 years and older in 204 countries/territories from 1990 to 2021: an analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

The aging global population and overall population growth have significantly increased the burden of cardiovascular diseases (CVDs). This study aims to examine global temporal trends in the incidence, disability-adjusted life years (DALY), and mortality rates of both overall and type-specific CVDs among adults aged 55 and older from 1990 to 2021, with a focus on identifying changes over time, regional disparities, and the key risk factors contributing to this burden. We analyzed data from the Global Burden of Disease (GBD) Study 2021, covering 204 countries and territories. Trends in age-standardized rates of incidence, DALY, and mortality for both overall and specific types of CVDs were assessed, alongside the impact of key risk factors. Between 1990 and 2021, global age-standardized incidence, DALY, and mortality rates showed a declining trend, with estimated annual percentage changes (EAPCs) of -0.39, -1.30, and -1.11, respectively. However, due to overall population growth and aging, the absolute number of CVD cases continued to rise. Regions with high-middle Socio-demographic Index (SDI) exhibited the highest incidence and mortality rates, while high SDI regions saw the greatest declines. Men had higher age-standardized rates of CVDs incidence, DALY, and mortality compared to women. The burden increased with age, with the oldest age groups (80+ years) showing the highest rates. High systolic blood pressure was the leading modifiable risk factor, contributing to more than half of the CVD-related DALY globally. Other major risk factors included high low-density lipoprotein cholesterol, smoking, and ambient particulate matter pollution. While age-standardized rates of CVD incidence, DALY, and mortality have declined over the past three decades, the total burden of CVDs continues to rise due to population aging and growth. These findings highlight the need for targeted prevention strategies in regions with high CVD burden, particularly those with lower socioeconomic status.

Wang MS ，Deng JW ，Geng WY ，Zheng R ，Xu HL ，Dong Y ，Huang WD ，Li YL ... -  《-》

Global burden of 369 diseases and injuries in 204 countries and territories, 1990-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019.

In an era of shifting global agendas and expanded emphasis on non-communicable diseases and injuries along with communicable diseases, sound evidence on trends by cause at the national level is essential. The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) provides a systematic scientific assessment of published, publicly available, and contributed data on incidence, prevalence, and mortality for a mutually exclusive and collectively exhaustive list of diseases and injuries. GBD estimates incidence, prevalence, mortality, years of life lost (YLLs), years lived with disability (YLDs), and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) due to 369 diseases and injuries, for two sexes, and for 204 countries and territories. Input data were extracted from censuses, household surveys, civil registration and vital statistics, disease registries, health service use, air pollution monitors, satellite imaging, disease notifications, and other sources. Cause-specific death rates and cause fractions were calculated using the Cause of Death Ensemble model and spatiotemporal Gaussian process regression. Cause-specific deaths were adjusted to match the total all-cause deaths calculated as part of the GBD population, fertility, and mortality estimates. Deaths were multiplied by standard life expectancy at each age to calculate YLLs. A Bayesian meta-regression modelling tool, DisMod-MR 2.1, was used to ensure consistency between incidence, prevalence, remission, excess mortality, and cause-specific mortality for most causes. Prevalence estimates were multiplied by disability weights for mutually exclusive sequelae of diseases and injuries to calculate YLDs. We considered results in the context of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite indicator of income per capita, years of schooling, and fertility rate in females younger than 25 years. Uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for every metric using the 25th and 975th ordered 1000 draw values of the posterior distribution. Global health has steadily improved over the past 30 years as measured by age-standardised DALY rates. After taking into account population growth and ageing, the absolute number of DALYs has remained stable. Since 2010, the pace of decline in global age-standardised DALY rates has accelerated in age groups younger than 50 years compared with the 1990-2010 time period, with the greatest annualised rate of decline occurring in the 0-9-year age group. Six infectious diseases were among the top ten causes of DALYs in children younger than 10 years in 2019: lower respiratory infections (ranked second), diarrhoeal diseases (third), malaria (fifth), meningitis (sixth), whooping cough (ninth), and sexually transmitted infections (which, in this age group, is fully accounted for by congenital syphilis; ranked tenth). In adolescents aged 10-24 years, three injury causes were among the top causes of DALYs: road injuries (ranked first), self-harm (third), and interpersonal violence (fifth). Five of the causes that were in the top ten for ages 10-24 years were also in the top ten in the 25-49-year age group: road injuries (ranked first), HIV/AIDS (second), low back pain (fourth), headache disorders (fifth), and depressive disorders (sixth). In 2019, ischaemic heart disease and stroke were the top-ranked causes of DALYs in both the 50-74-year and 75-years-and-older age groups. Since 1990, there has been a marked shift towards a greater proportion of burden due to YLDs from non-communicable diseases and injuries. In 2019, there were 11 countries where non-communicable disease and injury YLDs constituted more than half of all disease burden. Decreases in age-standardised DALY rates have accelerated over the past decade in countries at the lower end of the SDI range, while improvements have started to stagnate or even reverse in countries with higher SDI. As disability becomes an increasingly large component of disease burden and a larger component of health expenditure, greater research and development investment is needed to identify new, more effective intervention strategies. With a rapidly ageing global population, the demands on health services to deal with disabling outcomes, which increase with age, will require policy makers to anticipate these changes. The mix of universal and more geographically specific influences on health reinforces the need for regular reporting on population health in detail and by underlying cause to help decision makers to identify success stories of disease control to emulate, as well as opportunities to improve. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

GBD 2019 Diseases and Injuries Collaborators 《-》

The burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors by state in the USA, 1990-2021: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2021.

The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2021 provides a comprehensive assessment of health and risk factor trends at global, regional, national, and subnational levels. This study aims to examine the burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors in the USA and highlight the disparities in health outcomes across different states. GBD 2021 analysed trends in mortality, morbidity, and disability for 371 diseases and injuries and 88 risk factors in the USA between 1990 and 2021. We used several metrics to report sources of health and health loss related to specific diseases, injuries, and risk factors. GBD 2021 methods accounted for differences in data sources and biases. The analysis of levels and trends for causes and risk factors within the same computational framework enabled comparisons across states, years, age groups, and sex. GBD 2021 estimated years lived with disability (YLDs) and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs; the sum of years of life lost to premature mortality and YLDs) for 371 diseases and injuries, years of life lost (YLLs) and mortality for 288 causes of death, and life expectancy and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We provided estimates for 88 risk factors in relation to 155 health outcomes for 631 risk-outcome pairs and produced risk-specific estimates of summary exposure value, relative health risk, population attributable fraction, and risk-attributable burden measured in DALYs and deaths. Estimates were produced by sex (male and female), age (25 age groups from birth to ≥95 years), and year (annually between 1990 and 2021). 95% uncertainty intervals (UIs) were generated for all final estimates as the 2·5th and 97·5th percentiles values of 500 draws (ie, 500 random samples from the estimate's distribution). Uncertainty was propagated at each step of the estimation process. We found disparities in health outcomes and risk factors across US states. Our analysis of GBD 2021 highlighted the relative decline in life expectancy and HALE compared with other countries, as well as the impact of COVID-19 during the first 2 years of the pandemic. We found a decline in the USA's ranking of life expectancy from 1990 to 2021: in 1990, the USA ranked 35th of 204 countries and territories for males and 19th for females, but dropped to 46th for males and 47th for females in 2021. When comparing life expectancy in the best-performing and worst-performing US states against all 203 other countries and territories (excluding the USA as a whole), Hawaii (the best-ranked state in 1990 and 2021) dropped from sixth-highest life expectancy in the world for males and fourth for females in 1990 to 28th for males and 22nd for females in 2021. The worst-ranked state in 2021 ranked 107th for males (Mississippi) and 99th for females (West Virginia). 14 US states lost life expectancy over the study period, with West Virginia experiencing the greatest loss (2·7 years between 1990 and 2021). HALE ranking declines were even greater; in 1990, the USA was ranked 42nd for males and 32nd for females but dropped to 69th for males and 76th for females in 2021. When comparing HALE in the best-performing and worst-performing US states against all 203 other countries and territories, Hawaii ranked 14th highest HALE for males and fifth for females in 1990, dropping to 39th for males and 34th for females in 2021. In 2021, West Virginia-the lowest-ranked state that year-ranked 141st for males and 137th for females. Nationally, age-standardised mortality rates declined between 1990 and 2021 for many leading causes of death, most notably for ischaemic heart disease (56·1% [95% UI 55·1-57·2] decline), lung cancer (41·9% [39·7-44·6]), and breast cancer (40·9% [38·7-43·7]). Over the same period, age-standardised mortality rates increased for other causes, particularly drug use disorders (878·0% [770·1-1015·5]), chronic kidney disease (158·3% [149·6-167·9]), and falls (89·7% [79·8-95·8]). We found substantial variation in mortality rates between states, with Hawaii having the lowest age-standardised mortality rate (433·2 per 100 000 [380·6-493·4]) in 2021 and Mississippi having the highest (867·5 per 100 000 [772·6-975·7]). Hawaii had the lowest age-standardised mortality rates throughout the study period, whereas Washington, DC, experienced the most improvement (a 40·7% decline [33·2-47·3]). Only six countries had age-standardised rates of YLDs higher than the USA in 2021: Afghanistan, Lesotho, Liberia, Mozambique, South Africa, and the Central African Republic, largely because the impact of musculoskeletal disorders, mental disorders, and substance use disorders on age-standardised disability rates in the USA is so large. At the state level, eight US states had higher age-standardised YLD rates than any country in the world: West Virginia, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Pennsylvania, New Mexico, Ohio, Tennessee, and Arizona. Low back pain was the leading cause of YLDs in the USA in 1990 and 2021, although the age-standardised rate declined by 7·9% (1·8-13·0) from 1990. Depressive disorders (56·0% increase [48·2-64·3]) and drug use disorders (287·6% [247·9-329·8]) were the second-leading and third-leading causes of age-standardised YLDs in 2021. For females, mental health disorders had the highest age-standardised YLD rate, with an increase of 59·8% (50·6-68·5) between 1990 and 2021. Hawaii had the lowest age-standardised rates of YLDs for all sexes combined (12 085·3 per 100 000 [9090·8-15 557·1]), whereas West Virginia had the highest (14 832·9 per 100 000 [11 226·9-18 882·5]). At the national level, the leading GBD Level 2 risk factors for death for all sexes combined in 2021 were high systolic blood pressure, high fasting plasma glucose, and tobacco use. From 1990 to 2021, the age-standardised mortality rates attributable to high systolic blood pressure decreased by 47·8% (43·4-52·5) and for tobacco use by 5·1% (48·3%-54·1%), but rates increased for high fasting plasma glucose by 9·3% (0·4-18·7). The burden attributable to risk factors varied by age and sex. For example, for ages 15-49 years, the leading risk factors for death were drug use, high alcohol use, and dietary risks. By comparison, for ages 50-69 years, tobacco was the leading risk factor for death, followed by dietary risks and high BMI. GBD 2021 provides valuable information for policy makers, health-care professionals, and researchers in the USA at the national and state levels to prioritise interventions, allocate resources effectively, and assess the effects of health policies and programmes. By addressing socioeconomic determinants, risk behaviours, environmental influences, and health disparities among minority populations, the USA can work towards improving health outcomes so that people can live longer and healthier lives. Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

GBD 2021 US Burden of Disease Collaborators 《-》