Tumor residue in patients with stage II-IVA nasopharyngeal carcinoma who received intensity-modulated radiation therapy: development and validation of a prediction nomogram integrating postradiotherapy plasma Epstein-Barr virus deoxyribonucleic acid, clin

To develop and validate a predictive nomogram for tumor residue 3-6 months after treatment based on postradiotherapy plasma Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) deoxyribonucleic acid (DNA), clinical stage, and radiotherapy (RT) dose in patients with stage II-IVA nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) treated with intensity-modulated radiation therapy (IMRT). In this retrospective study, 1050 eligible patients with stage II-IVA NPC, who completed curative IMRT and underwent pretreatment and postradiotherapy (-7 to +28 days after IMRT) EBV DNA testing, were enrolled from 2012 to 2017. The prognostic value of the residue was explored using Cox regression analysis in patients (n=1050). A nomogram for predicting tumor residues after 3-6 months was developed using logistic regression analyses in the development cohort (n=736) and validated in an internal cohort (n=314). Tumor residue was an independent inferior prognostic factor for 5-year overall survival, progression-free survival, locoregional recurrence-free survival and distant metastasis-free survival (all P<0.001). A prediction nomogram based on postradiotherapy plasma EBV DNA level (0 vs. 1-499 vs. ≥500 copies/ml), clinical stage (II vs. III vs. IVA), and RT dose (68.00-69.96 vs. 70.00-74.00 Gy) estimated the probability of residue development. The nomogram showed better discrimination (area under the curve (AUC): 0.752) than either the clinical stage (0.659) or postradiotherapy EBV DNA level (0.627) alone in the development and validation cohorts (AUC: 0.728). We developed and validated a nomogram model integrating clinical characteristics at the end of IMRT for predicting whether tumor will residue or not after 3-6 months. Thus, high-risk NPC patients who might benefit from immediate additional intervention could be identified by the model, and the probability of residue can be reduced in the future.

Huang YY ，Zhou JY ，Zhan ZJ ，Ke LR ，Xia WX ，Cao X ，Cai ZC ，Deng Y ，Chen X ，Zhang LL ，Huang HY ，Guo X ，Lv X ... -  《BMC CANCER》

Integrating pretreatment MRI-detected nodal features and Epstein-Barr virus DNA to identify optimal candidates for intensity-modulated radiotherapy alone in patients with stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

To develop and validate a prognostic nomogram based on MRI-detected features of retropharyngeal and cervical lymph nodes and Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA in patients with stage II nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) to distinguish low-risk patients for whom intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) alone is sufficient. This retrospective study enrolled 894 patients with stage II NPC (596 and 298 in the training and validation cohorts, respectively) with pretreatment MRI between August 2010 and May 2019. All patients received IMRT with or without additional chemotherapy. We identified independent risk factors using univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses. Survival was compared using Kaplan-Meier curves with the log-rank test. Independent factors derived from the multivariate analysis include cervical nodal necrosis (CNN), the extracapsular spread (ECS) of cervical and retropharyngeal lymph nodes, and gamma-glutamyl transferase (γ-GGT). Nomograms A, B, and C were established based on the clinical [tumor-node-metastasis (TNM) stage + Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA], the clinical-radiological [all independent predictors] and the combined models [the clinical-radiological model + EBV DNA], respectively. Nomogram C (C-index 0.769 [0.718-0.820]) demonstrated better risk discrimination than nomogram B (0.762 [0.715-0.809]), nomogram A (0.619 [0.564-0.674]), and the TNM stage (0.560 [0.509-0.611]). In the low-risk group divided by nomogram C, no significant survival differences were observed between patients treated with radiotherapy (RT) alone and other regimens including additional chemotherapy. The nomogram combining MRI-detected retropharyngeal and cervical lymph node features with pretreatment EBV-DNA improved the prognostic risk stratification for stage II NPC.

Guo J ，He Y ，Lin C ，Jiang Q ，Xing HW ，Zhang YC ，Shen GZ ，Lin HX ，Guo L ，Yang Q ... -  《-》

Integrating Postradiotherapy MRI-Detected Lymph Node Necrosis and Pre- and Posttreatment Epstein-Barr Virus-DNA for Risk Stratification in Nasopharyngeal Carcinoma.

Residual lymphadenopathy and detectable Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA after radiotherapy (RT) are known negative prognostic factors for nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC). However, there is a need to distinguish between patients with residual disease that will metastasize and those who will not. To develop a prognostic model to improve the risk stratification of NPC patients after RT. Retrospective. Three hundred eighty-seven NPC patients treated with RT between January 2010 and January 2013. T1-, T2-weighted and enhanced T1-weighted imaging at 1.5 or 3.0 T pretreatment and 3-4 months post-RT. Post-RT central nodal necrosis (CNN) and other nodal characteristics on MRI were assessed by three radiologists independently. EBV DNA was measured by quantitative polymerase chain reaction. The association between these variables and the primary endpoint (5-year distant metastasis-free survival [DMFS], time from the day of diagnosis to any distant metastasis) was analyzed. Nomograms A (pre-/posttreatment EBV-DNA + N stage + post-RT retropharyngeal lymph node [RLN] CNN), B (tumor-node-metastasis [TNM] stage + pretreatment EBV-DNA), and C (TNM stage + post-RT EBV-DNA) were developed. Univariate and multivariate analyses were performed with the Cox regression model. Nomograms were developed based on the Cox regression model and two prognostic models. The concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve were used to evaluate the discriminative ability of the nomograms and TNM stage. P-values < 0.05 were considered statistically significant. Post-RT RLN CNN was an independent prognostic factor for 5-year DMFS (hazard ratio, 2.88 [1.48-5.62]). Nomogram A (C-index 0.728 [0.660-0.797]) demonstrated better risk discrimination than nomogram B (0.638 [0.571-0.705]), nomogram C (0.707 [0.636-0.778]), and the TNM stage (0.587 [0.515-0.659]) for 5-year DMFS in NPC. Nomogram A combining pretreatment EBV-DNA and N stage with post-RT EBV-DNA and RLN CNN improved the prognostic risk stratification for DMFS in NPC. 4 TECHNICAL EFFICACY: Stage 2.

Cao D ，Li S ，Li H ，Liu L ，Wang X ，Quan T ... -  《-》

Individualized concurrent chemotherapy by pretreatment plasma Epstein-Barr viral DNA in II-III stage nasopharyngeal carcinoma: A propensity score matching analysis using a large cohort.

To ascertain the treatment effect of concurrent chemotherapy (CCT) in stage II-III nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) patients with different Epstein-Barr virus (EBV) DNA level in intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) era. A total of 2742 patients diagnosed with stage II-III NPC were involved in this study. Patients received IMRT with/without CCT. Overall survival (OS) was the primary endpoint. Receiver operating characteristics curve was used to determine the cut-off value of pre-DNA based on OS. After propensity score matching, the role of CCT was explored in patients with different EBV DNA level. In our cohort, the cut-off value of pre EBV DNA was 1460 copies/mL (area under curve [AUC], 0.695-0.769; sensitivity, 0.766; specificity, 0.599). Patients with high EBV DNA level showed poor survival in OS, progression free survival (PFS), locoregional relapse-free survival (LRFS) and distant metastasis-free survival (DMFS). In patients with EBV DNA level >1460 copies/mL, the concurrent chemoradiotherapy (CCRT) group achieved higher 3-year OS compared with IMRT groups. However, the CCRT and IMRT groups showed comparable OS in patients with EBV DNA ≤1460 copies/mL. In multivariate analyses, CCT was a protective factor for OS, PFS, and LRFS in high-risk patients (EBV DNA level >1460 copies/mL), while not an independent prognostic factor among the low-risk patients (EBV DNA level ≤1460 copies/mL). Pre-EBV DNA could be a useful tool to guide individualized treatment for stage II-III NPC patients. Additional CCT to IMRT improved the survival for patients with high pre-EBV DNA, while those with low pre-EBV DNA could not.

Sun XS ，Chen WH ，Liu SL ，Liang YJ ，Chen QY ，Guo SS ，Wen YF ，Liu LT ，Xie HJ ，Tang QN ，Li XY ，Yan JJ ，Mai HQ ，Tang LQ ... -  《Cancer Medicine》

Proposed modifications and incorporation of plasma Epstein-Barr virus DNA improve the TNM staging system for Epstein-Barr virus-related nasopharyngeal carcinoma.

The prognosis of patients who have Epstein-Barr virus (EBV)-related nasopharyngeal carcinoma (NPC) in which the tumor tissues harbor EBV have a better prognosis than those without EBV-related NPC. Therefore, the eighth edition of the TNM staging system could be modified for EBV-related NPC by incorporating the measurement of plasma EBV DNA. In total, 979 patients with NPC who received intensity-modulated radiotherapy (IMRT) were retrospectively reviewed. Recursive partitioning analysis was conducted based on tumor (T) classification, lymph node (N) classification, and EBV DNA measurement to derive objectively the proposed stage groupings. The validity of the proposed stage groupings was confirmed in a prospective cohort of 550 consecutive patients who also received with IMRT. The pretreatment plasma EBV DNA level was identified as a significant, negative prognostic factor for progression-free survival and overall survival in univariate analysis (all P < .001) and multivariate analysis (all P < .05). Recursive partitioning analysis of the primary cohort to incorporate EBV DNA generated the following proposed stage groupings: stage RI (T1N0), RIIA (T2-T3N0 or T1-T3N1, EBV DNA ≤2000 copies/mL), stage RIIB (T2-T3N0 or T1-T3N1, EBV DNA >2000 copies/mL; T1-T3N2, EBV DNA ≤2000 copies/mL), stage RIII (T1-T3N2, EBV DNA >2000 copies/mL; T4N0-N2), and stage RIVA (any T and N3). In the validation cohort, the 5-year progression-free survival rate was 100%, 87.9%, 76.7%, 68.7%, and 50.4% for proposed stage RI, RIIA, RIIB, RIII, and RIV NPC, respectively (P < .001). Compared with the eighth edition TNM stage groupings, the proposed stage groupings incorporating EBV DNA provided better hazard consistency, hazard discrimination, outcome prediction, and sample size balance. The proposed stage groupings have better prognostic performance than the eighth edition of the TNM staging system. EBV DNA titers should be included in the TNM staging system to assess patients who have EBV-related NPC.

Guo R ，Tang LL ，Mao YP ，Du XJ ，Chen L ，Zhang ZC ，Liu LZ ，Tian L ，Luo XT ，Xie YB ，Ren J ，Sun Y ，Ma J ... -  《-》