Validation of the kidney failure risk equation in a Portuguese cohort.

In chronic kidney disease (CKD) patients, the risk of kidney replacement therapy (KRT) is highly variable. In 2011, Tangri et al. developed the kidney failure risk equations (KFRE) to predict the 2 and 5-year probability of requiring kidney replacement therapy (KRT). The KFRE is an easily calculated 4-variable equation which has been extensively validated in multiple cohorts. The aim of this study was to validate this risk score in a Portuguese cohort. We conducted a retrospective analysis of CKD patients stage 3-5 referred for nephrology consult at Centro Hospitalar Universitário Lisboa Norte during the first 6 months of 2018. Age, gender, estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and albuminuria were assessed. The 4-variable kidney failure risk equation (KFRE) calibrated to a non-North American population was calculated. Requirement of KRT was assessed in a 2-year follow-up. We assessed the Cox logistic regression method of the KFRE to predict KRT requirement and the discriminatory ability was determined using the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. A cut-off value was defined as that with the highest validity. 360 patients were included and 54.4% were male. Mean age was 74.9±12.2 years, serum creatinine was 1.97±0.84mg/dL, eGFR was 33.4±12.13ml/min/1.73m2 and albuminuria was 571.1±848.3mg/g. Mean calculated risk score was 6.2±11.2%. Twenty-three patients required KRT (6.4%) in the two-year follow-up. The hazard ratio was 1.1 [95% CI (1.06-1.12), p<0.001] for the 2-year risk of KRT. The KFRE predicted progression to KRT requirement with an auROC of 0.903, [95% CI (0.86-0.95), p<0.001], with a sensitivity 91.3% and specificity of 71.8%. The optimal KFRE cut-off was >4.5% for 2-year nephrologist referral, with an hazard ratio of HR 26.7 [95% CI (6.15-116.3), p<0.001] for 2-year risk of KRT requirement. We have independently externally validated the 2-year KFRE and shown that it has excellent discrimination. The KFRE should be incorporated in clinical care of patients with CKD to improve patient-clinician dialogue and provide guidance on timing of referral for nephrology evaluation and planning for dialysis access.

da Silva BM ，Charreu J ，Duarte I ，Outerelo C ，Gameiro J ... -  《-》

Planning vascular access creation: The promising role of the kidney failure risk equation.

Marques da Silva B ，Dores M ，Silva O ，Pereira M ，Outerelo C ，Fortes A ，Lopes JA ，Gameiro J ... -  《-》

Utility of the Kidney Failure Risk Equation and Estimated GFR for Estimating Time to Kidney Failure in Advanced CKD.

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) predicts the 2-year risk of kidney failure for patients with chronic kidney disease (CKD). Translating KFRE-predicted risk or estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) into time to kidney failure could inform decision making for patients approaching kidney failure. Retrospective cohort. CKD Outcomes and Practice Patterns Study (CKDOPPS) cohort of patients with an eGFR<60mL/min/1.73m2 from 34 US nephrology practices (2013-2021). 2-year KFRE risk or eGFR. Kidney failure defined as initiation of dialysis or kidney transplantation. Accelerated failure time (Weibull) models used to estimate the median, 25th, and 75th percentile times to kidney failure starting from KFRE values of 20%, 40%, and 50%, and from eGFR values of 20, 15, and 10mL/min/1.73m2. We examined variability in time to kidney failure by age, sex, race, diabetes status, albuminuria, and blood pressure. Overall, 1,641 participants were included (mean age 69±13 years; median eGFR of 28mL/min/1.73m2 [IQR 20-37mL/min/1.73 m2]). Over a median follow-up period of 19 months (IQR, 12-30 months), 268 participants developed kidney failure, and 180 died before reaching kidney failure. The median estimated time to kidney failure was widely variable across patient characteristics from an eGFR of 20mL/min/1.73m2 and was shorter for younger age, male sex, Black (versus non-Black), diabetes (vs no diabetes), higher albuminuria, and higher blood pressure. Estimated times to kidney failure were comparably less variable across these characteristics for KFRE thresholds and eGFR of 15 or 10mL/min/1.73m2. Inability to account for competing risks when estimating time to kidney failure. Among those with eGFR<15mL/min/1.73m2 or KFRE risk>40%), both KFRE risk and eGFR showed similar relationships with time to kidney failure. Our results demonstrate that estimating time to kidney failure in advanced CKD can inform clinical decisions and patient counseling on prognosis, regardless of whether estimates are based on eGFR or the KFRE. Clinicians often talk to patients with advanced chronic kidney disease about the level of kidney function expressed as the estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) and about the risk of developing kidney failure, which can be estimated using the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE). In a cohort of patients with advanced chronic kidney disease, we examined how eGFR and KFRE risk predictions corresponded to the time patients had until reaching kidney failure. Among those with eGFR<15mL/min/1.73m2 or KFRE risk > 40%), both KFRE risk and eGFR showed similar relationships with time to kidney failure. Estimating time to kidney failure in advanced CKD using either eGFR or KFRE can inform clinical decisions and patient counseling on prognosis.

Chu CD ，McCulloch CE ，Hsu RK ，Powe NR ，Bieber B ，Robinson BM ，Raina R ，Pecoits-Filho R ，Tuot DS ... -  《-》

The Kidney Failure Risk Equation for prediction of end stage renal disease in UK primary care: An external validation and clinical impact projection cohort study.

Major RW ，Shepherd D ，Medcalf JF ，Xu G ，Gray LJ ，Brunskill NJ ... -  《-》

Estimates of eskd risk and timely kidney replacement therapy education.

Kidney replacement therapy (KRT) needs preparation and its timing is difficult to predict. Nephrologists' predictions of kidney failure risk tend to be more pessimistic than the Kidney Failure Risk Equation (KFRE) predictions. We aimed to explore how physicians' risk estimate related to referral to KRT education, vs. the objective calculated KFRE. Prospective observational study of data collected in chronic kidney disease (CKD) clinics of the Veterans Affairs Medical Center San Diego and the University of California, San Diego. The study included 257 participants who were aged 18 years or older, English speaking, prevalent CKD clinic patients, with estimated glomerular filtration rate (eGFR) < 60 mL/min per 1.73 m2 (MDRD equation). The exposure consisted of end stage kidney disease (ESKD) risk predictions. Nephrologists' kidney failure risk estimations were assessed: "On a scale of 0-100%, without using any estimating equations, give your best estimate of the risk that this patient will need dialysis or a kidney transplant in 2 years." KFRE was calculated using age, sex, eGFR, serum bicarbonate, albumin, calcium, phosphorus, urine albumin/creatinine ratio. The outcomes were the pattern of referral to KRT education (within 90 days of initial visit) and kidney failure evaluated by chart review. The population was divided into groups either by nephrologists' predictions or by KFRE. Referral to KRT education was examined by group and sensitivity and specificity were calculated based on whether participants reached kidney failure at 2 years. A fifth were referred for education by 90 days of enrollment. Low risk patients by both estimates had low referral rates. In those with nephrologists' predictions ≥ 15% (n = 137), sensitivity was 71% and specificity 76%. In those with KFRE ≥ 15% (n = 55), sensitivity was 85% and specificity 41%. Although nephrologists tend to overestimate patients' kidney failure risk, they do not appear to act on this overestimation, as the rates of KRT education referrals are lower than expected when a nephrologist identifies a patient as high risk. Not applicable.

Haggerty LE ，Rifkin DE ，Nguyen HA ，Abdelmalek JA ，Sweiss N ，Miller LM ，Potok OA ... -  《BMC Nephrology》