Nomogram for prediction of peritoneal metastasis risk in colorectal cancer.

Peritoneal metastasis is difficult to diagnose using traditional imaging techniques. The main aim of the current study was to develop and validate a nomogram for effectively predicting the risk of peritoneal metastasis in colorectal cancer (PMCC). A retrospective case-control study was conducted using clinical data from 1284 patients with colorectal cancer who underwent surgery at the First Affiliated Hospital of Guangxi Medical University from January 2010 to December 2015. Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was applied to optimize feature selection of the PMCC risk prediction model and multivariate logistic regression analysis conducted to determine independent risk factors. Using the combined features selected in the LASSO regression model, we constructed a nomogram model and evaluated its predictive value via receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve analysis. The bootstrap method was employed for repeated sampling for internal verification and the discrimination ability of the prediction models evaluated based on the C-index. The consistency between the predicted and actual results was assessed with the aid of calibration curves. Overall, 96 cases of PMCC were confirmed via postoperative pathological diagnosis. Logistic regression analysis showed that age, tumor location, perimeter ratio, tumor size, pathological type, tumor invasion depth, CEA level, and gross tumor type were independent risk factors for PMCC. A nomogram composed of these eight factors was subsequently constructed. The calibration curve revealed good consistency between the predicted and actual probability, with a C-index of 0.882. The area under the curve (AUC) of the nomogram prediction model was 0.882 and its 95% confidence interval (CI) was 0.845-0.919. Internal validation yielded a C-index of 0.868. We have successfully constructed a highly sensitive nomogram that should facilitate early diagnosis of PMCC, providing a robust platform for further optimization of clinical management strategies.

Song XQ ，Liu ZX ，Kong QY ，He ZH ，Zhang S ... -  《Frontiers in Oncology》

[Establishment and validation of a predictive nomogram model for advanced gastric cancer with perineural invasion].

Liu SH ，Hou XY ，Zhang XX ，Liu GW ，Xin FJ ，Wang JG ，Zhang DL ，Wang DS ，Lu Y ... -  《-》

Predicting metachronous liver metastasis in patients with colorectal cancer: development and assessment of a new nomogram.

We aimed to develop and validate a nomogram model, which could predict metachronous liver metastasis in colorectal cancer within two years after diagnosis. A retrospective study was performed on colorectal cancer patients who were admitted to Beijing Shijitan Hospital from January 1, 2016 to June 30, 2019. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression model was used to optimize feature selection for susceptibility to metachronous liver metastasis in colorectal cancer. Multivariable logistic regression analysis was applied to establish a predictive model through incorporating features selected in the LASSO regression model. C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, calibration plot, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were employed to assess discrimination, distinctiveness, consistency with actual occurrence risk, and clinical utility of candidate predictive model. Internal validation was assessed with bootstrapping method. Predictors contained in candidate prediction nomogram included age, CEA, vascular invasion, T stage, N stage, family history of cancer, and KRAS mutation. This model displayed good discrimination with a C-index of 0.787 (95% confidence interval: 0.728-0.846) and good calibration, whereas area under the ROC curve (AUC) of 0.786. Internal validation obtained C-index of 0.786, and AUC of validation cohort is 0.784. Based on DCA, with threshold probability range from 1 to 60%; this predictive model might identify colorectal cancer metachronous liver metastasis to achieve a net clinical benefit. We have developed and validated a prognostic nomogram with good discriminative and high accuracy to predict metachronous liver metastasis in CRC patients.

Hao M ，Li H ，Wang K ，Liu Y ，Liang X ，Ding L ... -  《-》

Development and validation of a nomogram for predicting metachronous peritoneal metastasis in colorectal cancer: A retrospective study.

Peritoneal metastasis (PM) after primary surgery for colorectal cancer (CRC) has the worst prognosis. Prediction and early detection of metachronous PM (m-PM) have an important role in improving postoperative prognosis of CRC. However, commonly used imaging methods have limited sensitivity to detect PM early. We aimed to establish a nomogram model to evaluate the individual probability of m-PM to facilitate early interventions for high-risk patients. To establish and validate a nomogram model for predicting the occurrence of m-PM in CRC within 3 years after surgery. We used the clinical data of 878 patients at the Second Hospital of Jilin University, between January 1, 2014 and January 31, 2019. The patients were randomly divided into training and validation cohorts at a ratio of 2:1. The least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) regression was performed to identify the variables with nonzero coefficients to predict the risk of m-PM. Multivariate logistic regression was used to verify the selected variables and to develop the predictive nomogram model. Harrell's concordance index, receiver operating characteristic curve, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA) were used to evaluate discrimination, distinctiveness, validity, and clinical utility of this nomogram model. The model was verified internally using bootstrapping method and verified externally using validation cohort. LASSO regression analysis identified six potential risk factors with nonzero coefficients. Multivariate logistic regression confirmed the risk factors to be independent. Based on the results of two regression analyses, a nomogram model was established. The nomogram included six predictors: Tumor site, histological type, pathological T stage, carbohydrate antigen 125, v-raf murine sarcoma viral oncogene homolog B mutation and microsatellite instability status. The model achieved good predictive accuracy on both the training and validation datasets. The C-index, area under the curve, and Brier scores were 0.796, 0.796 [95% confidence interval (CI) 0.735-0.856], and 0.081 for the training cohort and 0.782, 0.782 (95%CI 0.690-0.874), and 0.089 for the validation cohort, respectively. DCA showed that when the threshold probability was between 0.01 and 0.90, using this model to predict m-PM achieved a net clinical benefit. We have established and validated a nomogram model to predict m-PM in patients undergoing curative surgery, which shows good discrimination and high accuracy.

Ban B ，Shang A ，Shi J 《-》

Predicting colorectal cancer risk: a novel approach using anemia and blood test markers.

Colorectal cancer remains an important public health problem in the context of the COVID-19 (Corona virus disease 2019) pandemic. The decline in detection rates and delayed diagnosis of the disease necessitate the exploration of novel approaches to identify individuals with a heightened risk of developing colorectal cancer. The study aids clinicians in the rational allocation and utilization of healthcare resources, thereby benefiting patients, physicians, and the healthcare system. The present study retrospectively analyzed the clinical data of colorectal cancer cases diagnosed at the Affiliated Hospital of Guilin Medical University from September 2022 to September 2023, along with a control group. The study employed univariate and multivariate logistic regression as well as LASSO (Least absolute shrinkage and selection operator) regression to screen for predictors of colorectal cancer risk. The optimal predictors were selected based on the area under the curve (AUC) of the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve. These predictors were then utilized in constructing a Nomogram Model for predicting colorectal cancer risk. The accuracy of the risk prediction Nomogram Model was assessed through calibration curves, ROC curves, and decision curve analysis (DCA) curves. Clinical data of 719 patients (302 in the case group and 417 in the control group) were included in this study. Based on univariate logistic regression analysis, there is a correlation between Body Mass Index (BMI), red blood cell count (RBC), anemia, Mean Corpuscular Volume (MCV), mean corpuscular hemoglobin (MCH), mean corpuscular hemoglobin concentration (MCHC), platelet count (PLT), Red Cell Distribution Width-Standard Deviation (RDW-SD), and the incidence of colorectal cancer. Based on the findings of multivariate logistic regression analysis, the variables of BMI and RBC exhibit a decrease, while anemia and PLT demonstrate an increase, all of which are identified as risk factors for the occurrence of colorectal cancer. LASSO regression selected BMI, RBC, anemia, and PLT as prediction factors. LASSO regression and multivariate logistic regression analysis yielded the same results. A nomogram was constructed based on the 4 prediction factors identified by LASSO regression analysis to predict the risk of colorectal cancer. The AUC of the nomogram was 0.751 (95% CI, OR: 0.708-0.793). The calibration curves in the validation and training sets showed good performance, indicating that the constructed nomogram model has good predictive ability. Additionally, the DCA demonstrated that the nomogram model has diagnostic accuracy. The Nomogram Model offers precise prognostications regarding the likelihood of Colorectal Cancer in patients, thereby helping healthcare professionals in their decision-making processes and promoting the rational categorization of patients as well as the allocation of medical resources.

Zhang Z ，Zhang T ，Zhang R ，Zhu X ，Wu X ，Tan S ，Jian Z ... -  《Frontiers in Oncology》