Fertility intentions to have a second or third child under China's three-child policy: a national cross-sectional study.

What proportion of people want to have a second or third child after the enactment of the three-child policy in China? Under the three-child policy, fertility intention to have a second child was ∼60% (56% of women vs 65% of men), and fertility intention to have a third child was 13% (10% of women vs 17% of men) among the Chinese population. The Chinese government announced the three-child policy on 31 May 2021, allowing all couples to have up to three children. At present, there is a lack of national surveys on the fertility intentions of women and men to have a second or third child under the three-child policy in China. In June 2021, a national cross-sectional survey including 9243 respondents aged 18-49 years was conducted online from 31 provinces in China's mainland using a random sampling method. Data on the intention to have a second or third child were collected by anonymous questionnaire. Descriptive statistics were performed to assess fertility intentions. Multivariate and multinomial logistic regression analyses were used to assess the association between fertility intentions and the investigated factors. Approximately 60% (5493/9243) of the investigated people (55.6% women vs 64.7% men) intended to have a second child, and 13.0% (1203/9243) of them (10.0% women vs 17.1% men) intended to have a third child under China's three-child policy. For non-child respondents, 46.8% of women and 60.4% of men intended to have a second child. For one-child respondents, 47.8% of women and 53.8% of men intended to have a second child. For two-child respondents, 14.4% of women and 25.9% of men intended to have a third child. The mean desired family size was 1.58 children per woman, which was lower than the 1.76 children per man. Notably, the age-specified fertility intentions of men were always higher than those of women. Women with a college or higher degree (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] 0.60, 95% CI 0.42-0.88) and a high-middle (aOR 0.71, 95% CI 0.53-0.95) or high (aOR 0.64, 95% CI 0.48-0.85) household income, as well as men living in urban areas (aOR 0.71, 95% CI 0.58-0.87) and having a high-middle household income (aOR 0.68, 95% CI 0.52-0.90), were associated with a lower intention to have a third child (all P < 0.05). In contrast, men of public service personnel had a higher intention to have a third child than factory workers (aOR 1.44, 95% CI 1.02-2.04, P < 0.05). Meanwhile, approximately one out of five two-child respondents intended to have a third child, while one out of four two-girl respondents (aOR 2.09, 95% CI 1.44-3.04) were willing to have a third child with a strong preference for boys (12.7% for boys vs 2.7% for girls). Economic and childrearing barriers were the leading barriers to having one more child. The online survey might limit the representativeness of the present study's sample. A large sample size was enrolled and a random sampling method was used to increase the sample diversity and representativeness. This study will assist in estimating the impact on population demographic of the three-child policy in China. Multiple efforts are needed to create a fertility-friendly environment for couples, thereby increasing fertility intentions to have one more child and increasing fertility rates. No funding. The authors declare no conflict of interest. N/A.

Jing W ，Liu J ，Ma Q ，Zhang S ，Li Y ，Liu M ... -  《-》

Will a government subsidy increase couples' further fertility intentions? A real-world study from a large-scale online survey in Eastern China.

How many couples with at least one child under 3 years would like to have another one or more child(ren) in Eastern China and will an in-cash subsidy be conducive to couple's fertility intentions? In sum, only 15.1% of respondents had further fertility intentions (FFI) before learning about the subsidy, and the planned in-cash subsidy policy increased respondents' overall FFI by 8.5%. Fertility has been declining globally and has reached a new low in China. The reasons why the Chinese three-child policy was under-realized, and how couples will react to a planned monthly ¥1000 (€141.2) subsidy policy, are not fully understood. During January and February 2022, a cross-sectional online survey aiming to understand families' expenses of raising a child under 3 years old, and couples' FFI, was conducted. During the survey period, 272 510 respondents scanned the QR code. This study reports the findings pertaining to questions on respondents' sociodemographic characteristics, household factors, FFI, and changes in intention from negative to positive after learning about the planned in-cash subsidy. After exclusion, 144 893 eligible responses were included. Respondents' FFI, the effect of a planned ¥1000/month*36 months' in-cash subsidy (€5083.2 in total) on people with a negative FFI before the subsidy, and potential reasons for persistent negative FFI after learning about the subsidy were collected through an anonymous online survey. Stepwise binary logistic regression models were used to select associated factors. The potential fertility rate change and government costs were estimated. A stratified analysis by current child number and sensitivity analysis were also conducted. In sum, 15.7% (22 804/144 893) of respondents were male, 15.1% of respondents reported a positive FFI, and 10.0% (12 288/123 051) without an FFI at first changed their intention after learning about the planned in-cash subsidy policy. For those who still said 'no FFI', 46.5%, 20.6%, and 14.7% chose pressure on housing status, expenses on children's education, and lack of time or energy for caring for another child as their first reasons. FFI was strongest in participants receiving the most financial support from their parents, i.e. grandparents (OR = 1.73, 95% CI = 1.63-1.84 for the >¥100 000/year group), and weakest in those already having two children (OR = 0.23, 95% CI = 0.22-0.24). For those with no FFI before learning about the subsidy policy, respondents with the highest house loan/rent (>¥120 000/year, OR = 1.27, 95% CI = 1.18-1.36) were more likely to change their FFI from 'No' to 'Yes', and those with the highest household income (>¥300 000/year, OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.60-0.71) were least susceptible to the policy. In our study population, about 1843 more births every year and an additional 0.3 children per woman were projected under a conservative estimation. Annual estimated cost at the provincial scale would be ¥817.7 (€115.5) million, about 1.02‰ of the total General Public Budget Revenue in 2022. The findings were generally robust in the stratified analysis and sensitivity analysis. Selection bias and information errors may exist in the online survey responses. The large sample size and detailed further analysis were used to minimize such biases. Fertility intentions in Eastern China are rather low. Policymakers should focus more on financial and childcare burdens for a better realization of the three-child policy, including housing, education and childcare services. An in-cash subsidy, which has never been used in China previously, shows promising potential for increasing FFI. However, the application of such policy should be in line with local conditions for better cost-effectiveness regarding fertility-boosting and fiscal sustainability for the government in the long run. This work was supported by the National Key Research and Development Plan of China (2019YFC0840702). The authors declare no conflict of interests. N/A.

Dong WH ，Wang X ，Yuan F ，Wang L ，Gu TM ，Zhu BQ ，Shao J ... -  《-》

Fertility intentions to have a second or third child among the childbearing-age population in Central China under China's three-child policy: A cross-sectional study.

On May 31, 2021, the Chinese authorities announced that couples can have up to three children, aiming to stimulate a rise in fertility levels. However, there is limited research on second and third birth intentions of the childbearing-age population under China's three-child policy, and the existing results are inconsistent. A cross-sectional survey was performed in Central China from June to August 2022. A total of 13 479 respondents aged 20-49 were enrolled in the study through a multi-stage sampling method. Data on the intentions to have a second or third child were collected using anonymized questionnaires. Descriptive statistics were performed to assess fertility intentions. Multivariate logistic regression analyses were used to assess the associations between fertility intentions and the related factors. Among families with a single child, 29.7% (1444 / 4859) of the respondents intended to have a second child, while among two-child families, 10.6% (750 / 7056) respondents intended to have a third child. Overall, participants indicated that the ideal number of children was 1.85 ± 0.52. The age-specific fertility intentions of the one-child families were always higher than those of two-child families; however, based on couples' age groups, the number of ideal children reported by two-child families was always higher than that of one-child families. Fertility intentions were influenced by the respondents' gender, age, residence, marital status, educational level, average working time, childcare support, marital satisfaction, accessibility of educational resources, health condition of both spouses, loan situation, size of living house and the gender of the first child or second child. The general prevalence of the second and third birth intention of the childbearing-age population in Central China is not high. To increase the birth rate, it is necessary to create a favourable fertility context and offer supportive measures.

Chen Q ，Wang A ，Song X ，Liu X ，Liu Y ，Wei J ，Shu J ，Sun M ，Zhong T ，Luo M ，Wang T ，Zhang S ，Xie D ，Qin J ... -  《-》

The ABC of reproductive intentions: a mixed-methods study exploring the spectrum of attitudes towards family building.

What are the intentions of men and women of reproductive age in the UK regarding reproduction and family building? We identified six main categories of people; Avoiders, Betweeners, Completers, Desirers, Expectants and Flexers, for whom reproduction education strategies should be tailored differently to suit intentions. Several studies have highlighted poor fertility awareness across men and women of reproductive age. As the average age of first-time parents continues to rise, there has been a concerted effort from educators, healthcare professionals, charities, reproductive health groups and government policymakers, to improve fertility awareness. In order to ensure that these messages are effective and to deploy the best strategies, it is important to understand people's reproductive health needs. This study therefore aimed to explore different reproductive intentions to aid tailoring of information to help individuals and couples achieve their family building desires. We conducted a mixed-method study via a UK-wide cross-sectional survey with 1082 participants and semi-structured interviews of 20 women and 15 men who agreed to follow-up interviews. Interviews lasted an hour on average. Ethics approval from UCL Research Ethics Committee. Survey participants were recruited nationwide via online newspaper and social media adverts. Interviewees were purposely sampled to include men and women from the reproductive age range (18-45 years), varying ethnicity and education background. Survey data were analysed using the Minitab statistical software package. Interview data were transcribed and analysed using the framework method. From the survey and interviews, we identified six key categories of people, grouped alphabetically, in a user-friendly manner to highlight a spectrum of reproductive intentions: Avoiders describes respondents who have no children and do not want to have children in the future; Betweeners describes those who already have child(ren) and want more in the future but are not actively trying to conceive; Completers describes those who have child(ren) but do not want more; Desirers describes those who are actively trying to conceive or plan to have child(ren) in the future; Expectants describes those who were pregnant at the time of the study; and Flexers describes those who may or may not already have and are unsure but or open to having child(ren) in the future. Analysis of survey data identified the following proportions in our study: Avoiders, 4.7%; Betweeners, 11.3%; Completers, 13.6%; Desirers, 36.9%; Expectants, 4.1%; and Flexers 28.4% and 2.4% preferring not to answer. There was one 'other' group from qualitative analysis, who would like to have children in the future but were unsure whether they could or had changing views. We recommend classifying as 'Desirers' or 'Flexers' for the purposes of fertility education. A majority of the survey population were trying to get pregnant; were pregnant; or planning to have a child in the future-whether actively, passively or simply open to the idea, with interviews providing deep insights into their family building decision-making. Due to the online recruitment method, there may be a bias towards more educated respondents. We developed a user-friendly, alphabetical categorization of reproductive intentions, which may be used by individuals, healthcare professionals, educators, special interest groups, charities and policymakers to support and enable individuals and couples in making informed choices to achieve their desired intentions, if and when they choose to start a family. There was no external funding for this study. The authors report no competing interests. N/A.

Grace B ，Shawe J ，Johnson S ，Usman NO ，Stephenson J ... -  《-》

The prevalence of barriers to rearing children aged 0-3 years following China's new three-child policy: a national cross-sectional study.

To further optimize birth policy, China implemented a new three-child policy to allow per couple to have up to three children on May 31, 2021. A national cross-sectional survey was conducted among 18 to 49-year-old Chinese parents who had at least one child in June 2021. We calculated the prevalence of self-reported childrearing barriers and used univariate logistic regression and multivariate logistic regression to analyze associated factors. 94.7% of the respondents self-reported barriers to rearing children aged 0-3 years, and the biggest barrier included high time cost (39.3%), high parenting cost (36.5%) and high education cost (13.5%). Women (aOR 1.49, 95%CI 1.13,1.96) and people with college degree or above (aOR 3.46, 95%CI 2.08, 5.75) were associated with higher prevalence of childrearing barriers, and people who intended to have a second child (aOR 0.58, 95%CI 0.40, 0.83) and people who intended to have a third child (aOR 0.51,95%CI 0.37, 0.71) were less likely to report childrearing barriers. The biggest barrier was more likely to be high time cost for parents one of whom is only child (aOR1.21, 95%CI 1.03, 1.42) and physical factors for parents both of whom are only child (aOR 1.56,95%CI 1.08, 2.26). The prevalence of barriers to rearing children aged 0-3 years was high among Chinese people of childbearing age who had children. Full consideration should be given to the barriers of people with different sociodemographic characteristics and people with fertility intention, thus making targeted childrearing policies and supporting measures to reduce the burden on people of childbearing age, encourage suitable couples to have a second or third child and then cope with China's aging population.

Kang L ，Jing W ，Liu J ，Ma Q ，Zhang S ，Liu M ... -  《BMC PUBLIC HEALTH》