Flood risk public perception in flash flood-prone areas of Punjab, Pakistan.

Floods due to higher severity of destruction are considered the most destructive natural hazards in the world. Initiating the appropriate strategies of disaster risk reduction is necessary to understand risk perception. This study attempted to examine the flood risk public perception in flash flood-prone areas of Punjab, Pakistan. A simple random sampling technique was used for collecting the data of 560 household respondents, and a logistic regression model was employed to make out the factors of flood risk perception. In classification of low and high perceived risk of relevant indicators, flood risk perception index was constructed. Risk perception is significantly influenced by socioeconomic factors which have a direct impact on disaster preparedness and potential adaptive capacities. After that, potential correlation of risk perception with the demographic status of respondents was investigated in this study. Empirical estimates indicated as respondents' schooling, ownership of house, size of household, employment status and past flood experience significantly influence flood risk perception. Risk perception determinants also diverse among both communities portray spatial differences. Inadequate protection measures from public authorities and institutions, limited preparedness regarding actions of private mitigation, reduced intensity of reliance in institutions and authorities are major reasons for high risk and lower mitigation in these flash flood-prone areas. The outcomes of this research can facilitate to understand flood risk perception and its factors for conniving appropriate management plan of flood risk and communication strategies. Furthermore, this research can help consider multidimensional flood risks and its spatial vibrancy from the perspective of social science.

Ahmad D ，Afzal M 《-》

Flood hazards vulnerability and risk of food security in Bait community flood-prone areas of Punjab Pakistan: In SDGs achievement threat.

Climate change in the global perspective has increased the occurrence of natural disasters, which subsequently decreased agricultural production and intensified the issue of food security. Developing countries, such as Pakistan, are facing severe food security issues, where most of the population still experiences poverty and hunger in their daily lives. Flood disasters ruin valuable land, cause agricultural production losses, and interrupt livelihood routines as expected household livelihood becomes more vulnerable. This research work focused on investigating the flood hazards vulnerability and risk of food security in the Bait community flood-prone areas of Punjab, Pakistan, with a broader aspect in contrast to previous research work. A constructed food security index composed of several IPCC and FAO factors with correlated dimensions of food security was used for the empirical estimation in this study. A composite food security index was developed through polychoric principal component analysis. To estimate the influence on the overall food security condition in the study area, a food security index was regressed on various independent variables. Estimates of the study indicated that three-fourths of household respondents in the study area are confronted with the issue of food security with changeable scale. Financing schemes, physical assets, and family type illustrated the positive influence on respondents' food security level, whereas respondents suffering property losses owing to floods had a negative influence. The study findings suggested integrated strategies must be adopted to effectively deal with issues of food security in the scenario of increasing severity of flood disasters. Policymakers and disaster-concerned institutions need to develop disaster risk mitigation strategies by constructing new water reserves and clearing river encroachments to deal with flood disasters. Agricultural research and development authorities need to provide climate friendly seed varieties and promote particular food crops for flood prone areas to ensure food security and reduce livelihood vulnerability, specifically for the flood-prone communities.

Ahmad D ，Shah SZA ，Afzal M 《-》

Flood hazards and factors influencing household flood perception and mitigation strategies in Pakistan.

Ahmad D ，Afzal M 《-》

Flood hazards and agricultural production risks management practices in flood-prone areas of Punjab, Pakistan.

Climate induced disasters, more specifically floods, have caused severe damage to the agriculture sector in Pakistan. These climatic risks have constrained the farming community to adopt risk management strategies to overcome such climate change risks. This research work attempted to examine the association of risk management tools with farmers' perception of risk, risk averse attitude, and various socioeconomic factors. The study has employed the sample data of 398 farmers from two high-risk flood-prone districts of Punjab, Pakistan. The multivariate probit model was used in this study to investigate the association of dependent and independent variables. The findings of the study indicated that small farmers consider heavy rains and floods severe risks to their agricultural production and are more risk averse than large farmers. Estimates of a multivariate probit model interpreted as age of farmer (0.036), heavy rains risk perception (0.597), and landholding size (0.114) were positively related with the risk management tool of depletion of assets. Farmers' education (0.056), off-farm income (3.47), age (0.018), and risk averse attitude of farmer (0.687) were positive, whereas experience of farming (-0.037) was negatively linked with reduction of consumption. Furthermore, experience of farming (0.005), risk averse attitude (0.493), heavy rains (0.481), and flood risk perception (0.536) were positively related with diversification adoption. The flood-prone farming community is more vulnerable to these climatic risks and rely on traditional strategies for risk management. There is a need to adopt crop diversification based on developing research capacity for innovative crop varieties having resistance to floods and climate change affects. Some significant policy measures, such as a more resilient scenario of climate change and floods, need to stimulate activities of enterprise diversification, opportunities of diversifying employment, and strengthening activities of off-farm employment for the sound livelihood of flood-prone farmers and to minimize severe affects of climatic risks.

Ahmad D ，Afzal M 《-》

Flood hazards and livelihood vulnerability of flood-prone farm-dependent Bait households in Punjab, Pakistan.

Pakistan is one of the most climate change- and natural disaster-affected country of the world where livelihood and lives of inhabitants are often affected due to these disasters. In the scenario of various disasters and risks, flood disasters are the most recurrent hazards that cause Bait households' livelihood to be more vulnerable. Hence, this research work has focused to investigate livelihood vulnerability of flood-prone Bait households in southern Punjab of Pakistan. This study used multistage sampling technique for collection of the cross-sectional data of 398 flood disasters vulnerable Bait household's respondents from three high-risk flood-prone districts Muzaffargarh, Rajanpur, and Rahim Yar Khan. Face-to-face interview procedure and well-developed pre-tested questionnaire were used for data collection in this research work. This study applied vulnerability framework of LVI-IPCC and LVI in the direction of comparing the level of vulnerabilities in preferred three Bait district households. Empirical estimates of LVI major components and framework of IPCC vulnerability have indicated Bait households of Muzaffargarh more vulnerable owing to higher exposure and sensitivity and lower adaptive capacity than other districts. In contrast to other districts, Muzaffargarh households have investigated more vulnerable to flood disasters more particularly in LVI sub-components such as health (0.460), water (0.360), and food (0.515) access. These research findings will be helpful to policymakers to work out and put into practice effectual programs and strategies such as constructing more water reserves, developing overhead infrastructure, easy access of institutional loans, and generating off-farm income sources. These local-based feasible measures will be helpful for native inhabitants to reduce frequency of floods in the direction of lessened vulnerability and increased resilience via recovering generally the livelihood of vulnerable Bait households in Punjab Pakistan and particularly the district Muzaffargarh.

Ahmad D ，Afzal M 《-》