Synergy between climate risk perception, adaptation responses, and agricultural productivity: the case of rice farming communities in Pakistan.
The climate variability in Pakistan adversely affects rice crops and undermines the food security and livelihoods of millions of rural households whose survival depends directly on rice farming. This study examines farmers' risk perception, adaptation responses, and adaptation impact on rice productivity. We employed a multi-stage sampling method for selecting 480 farmers from the rice production zone of Punjab province, a region that produces more than 60% of the total rice in the country and faces significant production decline due to climate change. We used the risk matrix method to determine farmers' perception of climate change-induced risk and used the propensity score matching (PSM) technique to analyze the impact of adaptation measures on rice yield and crop returns. Results show that farmers had high perceptions and were concerned about biological and financial risks, followed by biophysical, atmospheric, and social risks. Farmers applied supplementary irrigation, changed rice cultivation dates, changed rice varieties, resized farms, and altered irrigation application times as adaptation measures to cope with changing climate effects. Probit regression analysis showed that the adaptation measures had been largely affected by farmers' socioeconomic attributes and risk perceptions. The PSM estimates showed that all adaptation measures had a positive impact on rice yield and crop return. Specifically, the cultivation of alternative rice varieties, farm resizing, and supplementary irrigation were the most effective strategies, followed by the adjustment in cultivation dates and irrigation time. Having implications beyond Pakistan, this study suggests improving farmers' access to irrigation water, credit, and farm advisory services to facilitate the extent of adaptation.
Khan NA
，Gong Z
，Shah AA
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Do farmers' risk perception, adaptation strategies, and their determinants benefit towards climate change? Implications for agriculture sector of Punjab, Pakistan.
Due to global and regional climatic dynamics for a couple of decades, agricultural productivity, rural livelihood, and food security have been badly affected in Pakistan. This study was conducted in Punjab, Pakistan, to explore the farmers' understanding of the impacts of climate change, adaptation strategies, determinants, and benefits on agriculture using data from 1080 respondents. Perceived risks by the farmers in the rice-wheat cropping system and the cotton-wheat cropping system were weed infestation, seed rate augmented, low-quality seeds, infestation of crop diseases and pests, change of cropping pattern, increase of input use, decrease of cropping intensity and productivity, decreasing soil fertility, increasing irrigation frequency, and increase of harvesting time. To alleviate the adverse influences of climate change, the adaptation strategies used by farmers were management of crop and variety, soil and irrigation water, diversification of agriculture production systems and livelihood sources, management of fertilizer and farm operations time, spatial adaptation, access to risk reduction measures and financial assets, adoption of new technologies, institutional support, and indigenous knowledge. Moreover, the results of Binary Logistic Regression indicate that adaptation strategies are affected by different factors like age, education, household family size, off-farm income, remittances, credit access, information on climatic and natural hazards, information on weather forecasting, land acreage, the experience of growing crops and rearing of livestock, tenancy status, tube well ownership, livestock inventory, access to market information, agricultural extension services, and distance from agricultural input/output market. There is a significant difference between adapters and nonadapters. The risk management system may be created to protect crops against failures caused by extreme weather events. There is a need to develop crop varieties that are both high yielding and resistant to climate change. Moreover, cropping patterns should be revised to combat the effects of climate change. To enhance farmers' standard of living, it is necessary to provide adequate extension services and a more significant number of investment facilities. These measures will assist farmers in maintaining their standard of living and food security over the long term to adapt to the effects of climate change based on various cropping zones.
Usman M
，Ali A
，Bashir MK
，Radulescu M
，Mushtaq K
，Wudil AH
，Baig SA
，Akram R
... -
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Modelling wellbeing of farmers by using nexus of climate change risk perception, adaptation strategies, and their drivers on irrigation water in Pakistan.
This study aimed to determine the farmers' perceived impact of climate change on irrigation water and the adaptation measure adopted to mitigate its adverse effects. A binary logistic regression model was used to identified factors affecting the selection of adaptation measures. Partial Least Square-Structural Equation Modelling (PLS-SEM) was employed to compute the benefits of adaptation strategies. The study was conducted in two major cropping systems, i.e., the Cotton Wheat Cropping System (CWCS) and Rice Wheat Cropping System (RWCS) of Punjab, Pakistan, using primary data of 1080 farmers collected through a multistage sampling technique. Due to climate change there was deterioration in surface water and groundwater quality in CWCS than in RWCS. The farmer uses different adaptation strategies like water harvesting, crop diversification, increasing use of irrigation, laser land leveling to save water, making ridges, building a water harvesting scheme, changing irrigation time, high-efficiency irrigation system and water-saving technologies. Adaptation strategies used by farmer were affected by different socioeconomic, demographic and agronomic factors. Results of the binary logistic regression showed that age, farming experience, education, household size, farm size, tenancy status of owner, access to farm credit, information on weather forecasting, soil quality, tube well ownership, remittances, off-farm income, agricultural extension services provided for irrigation water, and information on climatic and natural hazards played a significant role in the selection of adaptation strategies for irrigation water. Results of PLS-SEM showed that adaptation strategies mitigate the adverse effects of climate change on irrigation water. Farmers' awareness regarding the impact of climatic variability on irrigation water should be enhanced. Availability of credit to farmers should be improved on easy terms to facilitate the adoption of interventions for better irrigation water management. It is high time for policymakers to design effective, affordable, and workable policies to mitigate climate change vulnerabilities against irrigation water to improve the wellbeing of the farmers.
Usman M
，Ali A
，Bashir MK
，Baig SA
，Mushtaq K
，Abbas A
，Akram R
，Iqbal MS
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