SAPS III is superior to SOFA for predicting 28-day mortality in sepsis patients based on Sepsis 3.0 criteria.

The discrimination and calibration accuracy of prediction models tends to become poor over time. The performance of predictive models should be reevaluated periodically. The aim of this study was to reassess the discrimination of the six commonly used models for predicting 28-day mortality in patients with sepsis based on the Sepsis 3.0 criteria. Patient data were extracted from the fourth edition of the Medical Information Mart for Critical Care (MIMIC IV) database. The systemic inflammatory response syndrome (SIRS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Oxford Acute Severity of Illness Score (OASIS), Logistic Organ Dysfunction System (LODS), and Simplified Acute Physiology Score II (SAPS II) and III (SAPS III) scores were calculated and collected. The area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC) was used to compare the discrimination abilities of the models using non-parametric Wilcoxon statistics. The Delong method was used to perform pairwise comparisons of the AUROCs of the models. Multiple subgroup analyses for age, body mass index, and sex were performed with regard to the 28-day mortality prediction of the models. A total of 12 691 patients were included. The mean age of the patients was 65.97 ± 15.77 years; 7673 patients (60.50%) were male. The mean SIRS, SOFA, OASIS, SAPS II, LODS, and SAPS III scores were higher in the non-survivor group than in the survivor group. The discrimination for 28-day mortality with the SAPS III (AUROC 0.812, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.802-0.822) and LODS (AUROC 0.804, 95% CI 0.743-0.765) models was superior to that of the SIRS (AUROC 0.575, 95% CI 0.562-0.589), SOFA (AUROC 0.612, 95% CI 0.598-0.626), OASIS (AUROC 0.753, 95% CI 0.742-0.764), and SAPS II (AUROC 0.754, 95% CI 0.743-0.765) models. The Youden index of the SAPS III model was 0.484, which was the highest among the models. Subgroup analyses showed similar results to the overall results. The discrimination for 28-day mortality with the SAPS III and LODS models was superior to that of the SIRS, SOFA, OASIS, and SAPS II models. The SAPS III model showed the best discrimination capacity for 28-day mortality compared with the other models.

Zhu Y ，Zhang R ，Ye X ，Liu H ，Wei J ... -  《-》

Comparison of different intensive care scoring systems and Glasgow Aneurysm score for aortic aneurysm in predicting 28-day mortality: a retrospective cohort study from MIMIC-IV database.

This study aims to assess the performance of various scoring systems in predicting the 28-day mortality of patients with aortic aneurysms (AA) admitted to the intensive care unit (ICU). We utilized data from the Medical Information Mart for Intensive Care-IV (MIMIC-IV) to perform a comparative analysis of various predictive systems, including the Glasgow Aneurysm Score (GAS), Simplified Acute Physiology Score (SAPS) III, SAPS II, Logical Organ Dysfunction System (LODS), Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), Systemic Inflammatory Response Syndrome (SIRS), and The Oxford Acute Illness Severity Score (OASIS). The discrimination abilities of these systems were compared using the area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC). Additionally, a 4-knotted restricted cubic spline regression was employed to evaluate the association between the different scoring systems and the risk of 28-day mortality. Finally, we conducted a subgroup analysis focusing on patients with abdominal aortic aneurysms (AAA). This study enrolled 586 patients with AA (68.39% male). Among them, 26 patients (4.4%) died within 28 days. Comparative analysis revealed higher SAPS II, SAPS III, SOFA, LODS, OASIS, and SIRS scores in the deceased group, while no statistically significant difference was observed in GAS scores between the survivor and deceased groups (P = 0.148). The SAPS III system exhibited superior predictive value for the 28-day mortality rate (AUROC 0.805) compared to the LODS system (AUROC 0.771), SOFA (AUROC 0.757), SAPS II (AUROC 0.759), OASIS (AUROC 0.742), SIRS (AUROC 0.638), and GAS (AUROC 0.586) systems. The results of the univariate and multivariate logistic analyses showed that SAPS III was statistically significant for both 28-day and 1-year mortality. Subgroup analyses yielded results consistent with the overall findings. No nonlinear relationship was identified between these scoring systems and 28-day all-cause mortality (P for nonlinear > 0.05). The SAPS III system demonstrated superior discriminatory ability for both 28-day and 1-year mortality compared to the GAS, SAPS II SIRS, SOFA, and OASIS systems among patients with AA.

Wang H ，Wu S ，Pan D ，Ning Y ，Li Y ，Feng C ，Guo J ，Liu Z ，Gu Y ... -  《BMC Cardiovascular Disorders》

[Predictive value of six critical illness scores for 28-day death risk in comprehensive and specialized intensive care unit patients based on MIMIC-IV database].

Zhu S ，Chen H ，Li X ，Gulifeire T ，Wang Y ，Yang C ，Yu X ... -  《-》

[Comparison of four scoring systems for predicting ICU mortality in patients with sepsis].

Hu C ，Hu B ，Li Z ，Yang X ，Song H ，Li J ... -  《-》

[Comparison of the predictive value of the Oxford acute severity of illness score and simplified acute physiology score II for in-hospital mortality in intensive care unit patients with sepsis: an analysis based on MIMIC-IV database].

Luo C ，Gu H ，Jin Y ，Liu B ... -  《-》