A Metabolic-associated Nomogram Predicts Recurrence Survival of Thyroid Cancer.

Various studies have suggested that metabolic genes play a significant role in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). The current study aimed to identify a metabolic signature related biomarker to predict the prognosis of patients with PTC. We conducted a comprehensive analysis on the data obtained from the Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database. The correlation between survival result and metabolic genes was evaluated based on the univariate Cox analyses, least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) and multivariate Cox analyses. The performance of a 7-gene signature was assessed according to Kaplan-Meier and receiver operating characteristic (ROC) analysis. Multivariate Cox regression analysis was adopted to unearth clinical factors related to the recurrence free survival (RFS) of patients with PTC. Finally, a prognostic nomogram was developed based on risk score, cancer status and cancer width to improve the prediction for RFS of PTC patients. Seven metabolic genes were used to establish the prognostic model. The ROC curve and C-index exhibited high value in training, testing and the whole TCGA datasets. The established nomogram, incorporating the 7-metabolic gene signature and clinical factors, was able to predict the RFS with high effectiveness. The 7-metabolic gene signature-based nomogram had a good performance to predict the RFS of patients with PTC. Our study identified a 7-metabolic gene signature and established a prognostic nomogram, which were useful in predicting the RFS of PTC.

Xi ZH ，Ma XX ，Chen HY ，Yu YH ，Li L ，Huang T ... -  《-》

A methylomics-associated nomogram predicts recurrence-free survival of thyroid papillary carcinoma.

Thyroid papillary carcinoma (TPC) is the most common type of thyroid cancer (TC). The prognosis of TPC patients with tumor-cell metastasis is poor. Therefore, this study aims to develop a model for predicting TPC patients' recurrence-free survival (RFS). We included 546 TPC patients who were clinically and pathologically diagnosed with TPC. The methylation biomarkers that associate with RFS were explored. These 546 samples were divided into training dataset (first 70%) and validation dataset (remaining 30%) randomly. The training dataset was used to identify prognostic biomarkers and construct risk prediction model, in addition, the validation dataset was used to verify the predictive performance of the model. We used Cox proportional hazard analysis and the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) Cox regression analysis to identify the significant predictive biomarkers, and establish the relapse risk prediction model from the identified biomarkers. A 6-DNA methylation signature yielded a high evaluative performance for RFS. The Kaplan-Meier analysis indicated that the 6-DNA methylation signature could significantly distinguish the high- and low-risk patients in training, validation and entire sets. In addition, a nomogram was constructed based on risk score, metastasis status and residual tumor status, and C-index, receiver operating characteristic (ROC) and the calibration plots analysis which demonstrated the good performance and clinical utility of the nomogram. The results suggested that the 6-DNA methylation signature is the independent prognostic marker for RFS and functioned as a significant tool for guiding the clinical treatment of TPC patients.

Chen H ，Ma X ，Yang M ，Wang M ，Li L ，Huang T ... -  《Cancer Medicine》

Ultrasound-based nomogram to predict the recurrence in papillary thyroid carcinoma using machine learning.

The recurrence of papillary thyroid carcinoma (PTC) is not unusual and associated with risk of death. This study is aimed to construct a nomogram that combines clinicopathological characteristics and ultrasound radiomics signatures to predict the recurrence in PTC. A total of 554 patients with PTC who underwent ultrasound imaging before total thyroidectomy were included. Among them, 79 experienced at least one recurrence. Then 388 were divided into the training cohort and 166 into the validation cohort. The radiomics features were extracted from the region of interest (ROI) we manually drew on the tumor image. The feature selection was conducted using Cox regression and least absolute shrinkage and selection operator (LASSO) analysis. And multivariate Cox regression analysis was used to build the combined nomogram using radiomics signatures and significant clinicopathological characteristics. The efficiency of the nomogram was evaluated by receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves, calibration curves and decision curve analysis (DCA). Kaplan-Meier analysis was used to analyze the recurrence-free survival (RFS) in different radiomics scores (Rad-scores) and risk scores. The combined nomogram demonstrated the best performance and achieved an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.851 (95% CI: 0.788 to 0.913) in comparison to that of the radiomics signature and the clinical model in the training cohort at 3 years. In the validation cohort, the combined nomogram (AUC = 0.885, 95% CI: 0.805 to 0.930) also performed better. The calibration curves and DCA verified the clinical usefulness of combined nomogram. And the Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that in the training cohort, the cumulative RFS in patients with higher Rad-score was significantly lower than that in patients with lower Rad-score (92.0% vs. 71.9%, log rank P < 0.001), and the cumulative RFS in patients with higher risk score was significantly lower than that in patients with lower risk score (97.5% vs. 73.5%, log rank P < 0.001). In the validation cohort, patients with a higher Rad-score and a higher risk score also had a significantly lower RFS. We proposed a nomogram combining clinicopathological variables and ultrasound radiomics signatures with excellent performance for recurrence prediction in PTC patients.

Zhou B ，Liu J ，Yang Y ，Ye X ，Liu Y ，Mao M ，Sun X ，Cui X ，Zhou Q ... -  《BMC CANCER》

Identification of lipid metabolism-related genes as prognostic indicators in papillary thyroid cancer.

Lipid metabolism plays important roles not only in the structural basis and energy supply of healthy cells but also in the oncogenesis and progression of cancers. In this study, we investigated the prognostic value of lipid metabolism-related genes in papillary thyroid cancer (PTC). The recurrence predictive gene signature was developed and internally and externally validated based on PTC datasets including The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) and GSE33630 datasets. Univariate, LASSO, and multivariate Cox regression analysis were applied to assess prognostic genes and build the prognostic gene signature. The expression profiles of prognostic genes were further determined by immunohistochemistry of tissue microarray using in-house cohorts, which enrolled 97 patients. Kaplan-Meier curve, time-dependent receiver operating characteristic curve, nomogram, and decision curve analyses were used to assess the performance of the gene signature. We identified four recurrence-related genes, PDZK1IP1, TMC3, LRP2 and KCNJ13, and established a four-gene signature recurrence risk model. The expression profiles of the four genes in the TCGA and in-house cohort indicated that stage T1/T2 PTC and locally advanced PTC exhibit notable associations not only with clinicopathological parameters but also with recurrence. Calibration analysis plots indicate the excellent predictive performance of the prognostic nomogram constructed based on the gene signature. Single-sample gene set enrichment analysis showed that high-risk cases exhibit changes in several important tumorigenesis-related pathways, such as the intestinal immune network and the p53 and Hedgehog signaling pathways. Our results indicate that lipid metabolism-related gene profiling represents a potential marker for prognosis and treatment decisions for PTC patients.

Wen S ，Luo Y ，Wu W ，Zhang T ，Yang Y ，Ji Q ，Wu Y ，Shi R ，Ma B ，Xu M ，Qu N ... -  《-》

A 6 transcription factors-associated nomogram predicts the recurrence-free survival of thyroid papillary carcinoma.

Various researches demonstrated that transcription factors (TFs) played a crucial role in the progression and prognosis of cancer. However, few studies indicated that TFs were independent biomarkers for the prognosis of thyroid papillary carcinoma (TPC). Our aim was to establish and validate a novel TF signature for the prediction of TPC patients' recurrence-free survival (RFS) from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) database to improve the prediction of survival in TPC patients.The genes expression data and corresponding clinical information for TPC were obtained from TCGA database. In total, 722 TFs and 545 TPC patients with eligible clinical information were determined to build a novel TF signature. All TFs were included in a univariate Cox regression model. Then, the least absolute shrinkage and selection operator Cox regression model was employed to identify candidate TFs relevant to TPC patients' RFS. Finally, multivariate Cox regression was conducted via the candidate TFs for the selection of the TF signatures in the RFS assessment of TPC patients.We identified 6 TFs that were related to TPC patients' RFS. Receiver operating characteristic analysis was performed in training, validation, and whole datasets, we verified the high capacity of the 6-TF panel for predicting TPC patients' RFS (AUC at 1, 3, and 5 years were 0.880, 0.934, and 0.868, respectively, in training dataset; 0.760, 0.737, and 0.726, respectively, in validation dataset; and 0.777, 0.776, and 0.761, respectively, in entire dataset). The result of Kaplan-Meier analysis suggested that the TPC patients with low scores had longer RFS than the TPC patients with high score (P = .003). A similar outcome was displayed in the validation dataset (P = .001) and the entire dataset (P = 2e-05). In addition, a nomogram was conducted through risk score, cancer status, C-index, receiver operating characteristic, and the calibration plots analysis implied good value and clinical utility of the nomogram.We constructed and validated a novel 6-TF signature-based nomogram for predicting the RFS of TPC patients.

Wang T ，Tian K ，Ji X ，Song F ... -  《-》