Hydrological modelling of a snow/glacier-fed western Himalayan basin to simulate the current and future streamflows under changing climate scenarios.

Himalayan rivers are the paramount source of water supply to millions of people in northern India for drinking, irrigation and hydropower generation. Several researches reported that the hydrological regime of these Himalayan rivers is vulnerable to climate change. In order to understand the hydrologic response of their headwaters and examine the climate change impacts on streamflow, a hydrological modelling study is carried out in the upper part of the Satluj river basin in western Himalaya by using a temperature index based SWAT (Soil Water Assessment Tool) model. The model performed well for both calibration (years 1986-2000) and validation (2001-2005) periods against the observed daily streamflow at Rampur (R2 ≈ 0.9 and NSE ≥ 0.85). The study reveals that having a larger snow covered area, the snowmelt runoff is the major contributor to the Satluj river discharge at Rampur that comes out to be about 68-71% of the average annual water yield of about 600 mm. The actual evapotranspiration comes out to be about 14% of precipitation. The water yield of the basin is about 50% of the precipitation, for which the major part is generated in early summer. Further, to study the climate change impact on future streamflow, the downscaled data of CORDEX CCSM4 under two Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP4.5 and RCP8.5) scenarios are used. The bias correction is applied at point level to remove biases from future time series of downscaled data and subsequently loaded into the SWAT model to simulate the future streamflows at the end of the century. The future climate variability in terms of precipitation and temperature exhibited that the climate in the region would become wetter and warmer. A 14% to 21% of increase in annual precipitation is predicted towards the end of the century from the current average annual precipitation of about 420 mm under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively. Similar to precipitation, the temperature will also be increased by 2.18 °C to 5.71 °C (in both the RCPs) than the current temperature values. The changed climate conditions in future are transformed into the possible range of stream flows using the SWAT model and found that the future climate would increase the streamflow by over 11%-19% at the end of the century under RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios, respectively. The outcome of this study can be used to develop the suitable strategies for sustainable water management in the region.

Shukla S ，Jain SK ，Kansal ML 《-》

Climatic and hydrological projections to changing climate under CORDEX-South Asia experiments over the Karakoram-Hindukush-Himalayan water towers.

The complex snow and glacier (cryosphere) dynamics over the "third pole" mountainous regions of the Karakoram-Hindukush-Himalayas (HKH) makes this region challenging for accurate hydrological predictions. The objective of this study is to investigate the impacts of climate change on major hydrological components (precipitation-runoff, snow- and glacier-runoff, evapotranspiration and inter-annual change in streamflows) over the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, located in HKH. For this purpose, three different hydrological models (snowmelt runoff (SRM), HEC-HMS and HBV are tested over snow- and glacier-covered river basins. These are subsequently integrated with the climate projections simulated from regional climate models (RCMs) developed under CORDEX-SA experiments. The basin-wide RCM-simulations for future scenarios exhibited an increase in precipitation but decline in intensity of rise over high-altitude zones. The temperature rise showed a maximum increase during monsoon by 4.18 °C, 4.37 °C and 4.34 °C over Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively, for the period 2071-2099 (2090s) and a high emission scenario (RCP8.5). Further, in response to rise in precipitation and temperature, the SRM simulations showed a significant increase in snow- glacier-melt runoff (49%, 42% and 46% for SRM) and precipitation runoff (23.8%, 15.7% and 27% for HEC-HMS) in the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively, for the 2090s under RCP8.5. The streamflow projections for SRM showed a shift in hydrological regime with an increase by 369 (168.4%), 216.5 (74.8%) and 131.8 m3/s (82%) during pre-monsoon in the Hunza-, Gilgit- and Astore-River basins, respectively and then decline by -73.2 m3/s (-13.9%) and -45.4 m3/s (23.4%) during monsoon of the 2090s, in the Hunza- and Astore-River basins, respectively, under RCP8.5. Overall, the projections show that the pre-monsoon and monsoon seasons are expected to be strongly influenced by climate change, through alterations in snow- and glacier-accumulation, and melt regimes with substantial consequences for river runoff in the region.

Azmat M ，Wahab A ，Huggel C ，Qamar MU ，Hussain E ，Ahmad S ，Waheed A ... -  《-》

SWAT-MODSIM-PSO optimization of multi-crop planning in the Karkheh River Basin, Iran, under the impacts of climate change.

Agriculture is one of the environmental/economic sectors that may adversely be affected by climate change, especially, in already nowadays water-scarce regions, like the Middle East. One way to cope with future changes in absolute as well as seasonal (irrigation) water amounts can be the adaptation of the agricultural crop pattern in a region, i.e. by planting crops which still provide high yields and so economic benefits to farmers under such varying climate conditions. To do this properly, the whole cascade starting from climate change, effects on hydrology and surface water availability, subsequent effects on crop yield, agricultural areas available, and, finally, economic value of a multi-crop cultivation pattern must be known. To that avail, a complex coupled simulation-optimization tool SWAT-LINGO-MODSIM-PSO (SLMP) has been developed here and used to find the future optimum cultivation area of crops for the maximization of the economic benefits in five irrigation-fed agricultural plains in the south of the Karkheh River Basin (KRB) southwest Iran. Starting with the SWAT distributed hydrological model, the KR-streamflow as well as the inflow into the Karkheh-reservoir, as the major storage of irrigation water, is calibrated and validated, based on 1985-2004 observed discharge data. In the subsequent step, the SWAT-predicted streamflow is fed into the MODSIM river basin Decision Support System to simulate and optimize the water allocation between different water users (agricultural, environmental, municipal and industrial) under standard operating policy (SOP) rules. The final step is the maximization of the economic benefit in the five agricultural plains through constrained PSO (particle swarm optimization) by adjusting the cultivation areas (decision variables) of different crops (wheat, barley, maize and "others"), taking into account their specific prizes and optimal crop yields under water deficiency, with the latter computed in the LINGO-sub-optimization module embedded in the SLMP-tool. For the optimization of the agricultural benefits in the KRB in the near future (2038-2060), quantile-mapping (QM) bias-corrected downscaled predictors for daily precipitation and temperatures of the HadGEM2-ES GCM-model under RCP4.5- and RCP8.5-emission scenarios are used as climate drivers in the streamflow- and crop yield simulations of the SWAT-model, leading to corresponding changes in the final outcome (economic benefit) of the SLMP-tool. In fact, whereas for the historical period (1985-2004) a total annual benefit of 94.2 million US$ for all multi-crop areas in KRB is computed, there is a decrease to 88.3 million US$ and 72.1 million US$ for RCP4.5 and RCP8.5, respectively, in the near future (2038-2060) prediction period. In fact, this future income decrease is due to a substantial shift from cultivation areas devoted nowadays to high-price wheat and barley in the winter season to low-price maize-covered areas in the future summers, owing to a future seasonal change of SWAT-predicted irrigation water available, i.e. less in the winter and more in the summer.

Fereidoon M ，Koch M 《-》

Future climate and cryosphere impacts on the hydrology of a scarcely gauged catchment on the Jhelum river basin, Northern Pakistan.

Streamflow projections are fundamental sources for future water resources strategic planning and management, particularly in high-altitude scarcely-gauged basins located in high mountain Asia. Therefore, quantification of the climate change impacts on major hydrological components (evapotranspiration, soil water storage, snowmelt-runoff, rainfall-runoff and streamflow) is of high importance and remains a challenge. For this purpose, we analysed general circulation models (GCMs) using a multiple bias correction approach and two different hydrological models i.e. the Hydrological Modelling System (HEC-HMS) and the Snowmelt Runoff Model (SRM), to examine the impact of climate change on the hydrological behaviour of the Jhelum River basin. Based on scrutiny, climate projections using four best fit CMIP5 GCMs (i.e. BCC-CSM1.1, INMCM4, IPSL-CM5A-LR and CMCC-CMS) were chosen by evaluating linear scaling, local intensity scaling (LOCI) and distribution mapping (DM) approaches at twenty climate stations. Subsequently, after calibration and validation of HEC-HMS and SRM at five streamflow gauging stations, the bias corrected projected climate data was integrated with HEC-HMS and SRM to simulate projected streamflow. Results demonstrate that the DM approach fitted the projections best. The climate projections exhibited maximum intra-annual rises in precipitation by 183.2 mm (12.74%) during the monsoon for RCP4.5 and a rise in Tmin (Tmax) by 4.77 °C (4.42 °C) during pre-monsoon, for RCP8.5 during 2090s. The precipitation and temperature rise is expected to expedite and increase snowmelt-runoff up to 48% and evapotranspiration and soil water storage up to 45%. The projections exhibited significant increases in streamflows by 330 m3/s (22.6%) for HEC-HMS and 449 m3/s (30.7%) for SRM during the pre-monfaf0000soon season by the 2090s under RCP8.5. Overall, our results reveal that the pre-monsoon season is potentially utmost affected under scenario-periods, and consequently, which has the potential to alter the precipitation and flow regime of the Jhelum River basin due to significant early snow- and glacier-melt.

Azmat M ，Qamar MU ，Huggel C ，Hussain E ... -  《-》

Twenty-first century hydrologic and climatic changes over the scarcely gauged Jhelum river basin of Himalayan region using SDSM and RCPs.

Climatic and hydrological changes of the scarcely gauged mountainous basins remain a challenge to study due to unavailability of observed data. The recent study aims to assess these changes using spatial decision tool statistical downscaling method (SDSM) and snowmelt runoff model (SRM) for the twenty-first century under representative concentration pathways (RCPs). SDSM considered absolute partial correlation coefficient (abs. Pr.) to evaluate efficiency predictors or the predictands of the Jhelum river basin. The performance evaluation of SDSM assessed using coefficient of determination (R2) values for RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5 under CMIP5 (CCSM4). The biases of the daily time series downscaled data removed by using mean-based biased correction method (MB-BC). Stream projection carried out using SRM by incorporating MODIS snow product. Statistical parameters R2 and volume difference (Dv %) calculated for accuracy assessment of SRM for the simulated and observed discharge (2001-2018). Streamflow projections for the twenty-first century carried out by SRM using de-biased downscaled data. The R2 indicator of SDSM ranged between 78-81% for temperature and 82-86% for precipitation under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The temperature results indicated an increasing trend of 1.5oC and 3.8oC for the twenty-first century under RCP 4.5 and RCP 8.5, respectively. The mean annual precipitation showed a rise of 2-7% while surface runoff projected a rising trend of 3.3-7.4% for RCP-4.5 and RCP-8.5 respectively till the end of the twenty-first century. The study results revealed that Jhelum basin will be wetter and warmer for the twenty-first century as compare to the baseline period. The hydrographs of the river predicted the occurrence of more extreme events in the region for the twenty-first century. These hydrographs may help for better water conservation and management strategies in the Jhelum basin for the twenty-first century.

Munawar S ，Tahir MN ，Baig MHA 《-》