Genotype-Environment mismatch of kelp forests under climate change.

Climate change is increasingly impacting ecosystems globally. Understanding adaptive genetic diversity and whether it will keep pace with projected climatic change is necessary to assess species' vulnerability and design efficient mitigation strategies such as assisted adaptation. Kelp forests are the foundations of temperate reefs globally but are declining in many regions due to climate stress. A lack of knowledge of kelp's adaptive genetic diversity hinders assessment of vulnerability under extant and future climates. Using 4245 single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs), we characterized patterns of neutral and putative adaptive genetic diversity for the dominant kelp in the southern hemisphere (Ecklonia radiata) from ~1000 km of coastline off Western Australia. Strong population structure and isolation-by-distance was underpinned by significant signatures of selection related to temperature and light. Gradient forest analysis of temperature-linked SNPs under selection revealed a strong association with mean annual temperature range, suggesting adaptation to local thermal environments. Critically, modelling revealed that predicted climate-mediated temperature changes will probably result in high genomic vulnerability via a mismatch between current and future predicted genotype-environment relationships such that kelp forests off Western Australia will need to significantly adapt to keep pace with projected climate change. Proactive management techniques such as assisted adaptation to boost resilience may be required to secure the future of these kelp forests and the immense ecological and economic values they support.

Vranken S ，Wernberg T ，Scheben A ，Severn-Ellis AA ，Batley J ，Bayer PE ，Edwards D ，Wheeler D ，Coleman MA ... -  《-》

Genetic diversity and kelp forest vulnerability to climatic stress.

Wernberg T ，Coleman MA ，Bennett S ，Thomsen MS ，Tuya F ，Kelaher BP ... -  《-》

Loss of a globally unique kelp forest from Oman.

Kelp forests are declining in many regions globally with climatic perturbations causing shifts to alternate communities and significant ecological and economic loss. Range edge populations are often at most risk and are often only sustained through localised areas of upwelling or on deeper reefs. Here we document the loss of kelp forests (Ecklonia radiata) from the Sultanate of Oman, the only confirmed northern hemisphere population of this species. Contemporary surveys failed to find any kelp in its only known historical northern hemisphere location, Sadah on the Dhofar coast. Genetic analyses of historical herbarium specimens from Oman confirmed the species to be E. radiata and revealed the lost population contained a common CO1 haplotype found across South Africa, Australia and New Zealand suggesting it once established through rapid colonisation throughout its range. However, the Omani population also contained a haplotype that is found nowhere else in the extant southern hemisphere distribution of E. radiata. The loss of the Oman population could be due to significant increases in the Arabian Sea temperature over the past 40 years punctuated by suppression of coastal upwelling. Climate-mediated warming is threatening the persistence of temperate species and precipitating loss of unique genetic diversity at lower latitudes.

Coleman MA ，Reddy M ，Nimbs MJ ，Marshell A ，Al-Ghassani SA ，Bolton JJ ，Jupp BP ，De Clerck O ，Leliaert F ，Champion C ，Pearson GA ，Serrão EA ，Madeira P ，Wernberg T ... -  《-》

Projecting kelp (Ecklonia radiata) gametophyte thermal adaptation and persistence under climate change.

Kelp forests underpin temperate marine ecosystems but are declining due to ocean warming, causing loss of associated ecosystem services. Projections suggest significant future decline but often only consider the persistence of adult sporophytes. Kelps have a biphasic life cycle, and the haploid gametophyte can be more thermally tolerant than the sporophyte. Therefore, projections may be altered when considering the thermal tolerance of gametophytes. We undertook thermal tolerance experiments to quantify the effect of temperature on gametophyte survival, relative growth rate (RGR) and sex ratio for three genetically distinct populations of Ecklonia radiata gametophytes from comparatively high, mid- and low latitudes (43°, 33° and 30°S). We then used these data to project the likely consequences of climate-induced thermal change on gametophyte persistence and performance across its eastern Australian range, using generalized additive and linear models. All populations were adapted to local temperatures and their thermal maximum was 2-3 °C above current maximum in situ temperatures. The lowest latitude population was most thermally tolerant (~70 % survival up to 27 °C), while survival and RGR decreased beyond 25.5 and 20.5 °C for the mid- and low-latitude populations, respectively. Sex ratios were skewed towards females with increased temperature in the low- and high-latitude populations. Spatially explicit model projections under future ocean warming (2050-centred) revealed a minimal decline in survival (0-30 %) across populations, relative to present-day predictions. RGRs were also projected to decline minimally (0-2 % d-1). Our results contrast with projections for the sporophyte stage of E. radiata, which suggest a 257-km range contraction concurrent with loss of the low-latitude population by 2100. Thermal adaptation in E. radiata gametophytes suggests this life stage is likely resilient to future ocean warming and is unlikely to be a bottleneck for the future persistence of kelp.

Veenhof RJ ，Champion C ，Dworjanyn SA ，Schwoerbel J ，Visch W ，Coleman MA ... -  《-》

Adaptive divergence and genetic vulnerability of relict species under climate change: a case study of Pterocarya macroptera.

Understanding adaptive genetic variation and whether it can keep pace with predicted future climate change is critical in assessing the genetic vulnerability of species and developing conservation management strategies. The lack of information on adaptive genetic variation in relict species carrying abundant genetic resources hinders the assessment of genetic vulnerability. Using a landscape genomics approach, this study aimed to determine how adaptive genetic variation shapes population divergence and to predict the adaptive potential of Pterocarya macroptera (a vulnerable relict species in China) under future climate scenarios. We applied restriction site-associated DNA sequencing (RAD-seq) to obtain 8244 single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) from 160 individuals across 28 populations. We examined the pattern of genetic diversity and divergence, and then identified outliers by genetic differentiation (FST) and genotype-environment association (GEA) methods. We further dissected the effect of geographical/environmental gradients on genetic variation. Finally, we predicted genetic vulnerability and adaptive risk under future climate scenarios. We identified three genetic lineages within P. macroptera: the Qinling-Daba-Tianmu Mountains (QDT), Western Sichuan (WS) and Northwest Yunnan (NWY) lineages, which showed significant signals of isolation by distance (IBD) and isolation by environment (IBE). IBD and IBE explained 3.7-5.7 and 8.6-12.8 % of the genetic structure, respectively. The identified GEA SNP-related genes were involved in chemical defence and gene regulation and may exhibit higher genetic variation to adapt to the environment. Gradient forest analysis revealed that the genetic variation was mainly shaped by temperature-related variables, indicating its adaptation to local thermal environments. A limited adaptive potential was suggested by the high levels of genetic vulnerability in marginal populations. Environmental gradient mainly shaped the population differentiation of P. macroptera. Marginal populations may be at high risk of extinction, and thus proactive management measures, such as assisted gene flow, are required to ensure the survival of these populations.

Wang TR ，Meng HH ，Wang N ，Zheng SS ，Jiang Y ，Lin DQ ，Song YG ，Kozlowski G ... -  《-》