Comparison of Bleeding Risk Scores in Elderly Patients Receiving Extended Anticoagulation with Vitamin K Antagonists for Venous Thromboembolism.

 In elderly patients with venous thromboembolism (VTE), the decision to extend anticoagulation beyond 3 months must be weighed against the bleeding risk. We compared the predictive performance of 10 clinical bleeding scores (VTE-BLEED, Seiler, Kuijer, Kearon, RIETE, ACCP, OBRI, HEMORR2HAGES, HAS-BLED, ATRIA) in elderly patients receiving extended anticoagulation for VTE.  In a multicenter Swiss cohort study, we analyzed 743 patients aged ≥65 years who received extended treatment with vitamin K antagonists after VTE. The outcomes were the time to a first major and clinically relevant bleeding. For each score, we classified patients into two bleeding risk categories (low/moderate vs. high). We calculated likelihood ratios and the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve for each score.  Over a median anticoagulation duration of 10.1 months, 45 patients (6.1%) had a first major and 127 (17.1%) a clinically relevant bleeding. The positive likelihood ratios for predicting major bleeding ranged from 0.69 (OBRI) to 2.56 (Seiler) and from 1.07 (ACCP) to 2.36 (Seiler) for clinically relevant bleeding. The areas under the ROC curves were poor to fair and varied between 0.47 (OBRI) and 0.70 (Seiler) for major and between 0.52 (OBRI) and 0.67 (HEMORR2HAGES) for clinically relevant bleeding.  The predictive performance of most clinical bleeding risk scores does not appear to be sufficiently high to identify elderly patients with VTE who are at high risk of bleeding and who may therefore not be suitable candidates for extended anticoagulation.

Frei AN ，Stalder O ，Limacher A ，Méan M ，Baumgartner C ，Rodondi N ，Aujesky D ... -  《-》

Prospective, multicenter validation of prediction scores for major bleeding in elderly patients with venous thromboembolism.

The Outpatient Bleeding Risk Index (OBRI) and the Kuijer, RIETE and Kearon scores are clinical prognostic scores for bleeding in patients receiving oral anticoagulants for venous thromboembolism (VTE). We prospectively compared the performance of these scores in elderly patients with VTE. In a prospective multicenter Swiss cohort study, we studied 663 patients aged ≥ 65 years with acute VTE. The outcome was a first major bleeding at 90 days. We classified patients into three categories of bleeding risk (low, intermediate and high) according to each score and dichotomized patients as high vs. low or intermediate risk. We calculated the area under the receiver-operating characteristic (ROC) curve, positive predictive values and likelihood ratios for each score. Overall, 28 out of 663 patients (4.2%, 95% confidence interval [CI] 2.8-6.0%) had a first major bleeding within 90 days. According to different scores, the rate of major bleeding varied from 1.9% to 2.1% in low-risk, from 4.2% to 5.0% in intermediate-risk and from 3.1% to 6.6% in high-risk patients. The discriminative power of the scores was poor to moderate, with areas under the ROC curve ranging from 0.49 to 0.60 (P = 0.21). The positive predictive values and positive likelihood ratios were low and varied from 3.1% to 6.6% and from 0.72 to 1.59, respectively. In elderly patients with VTE, existing bleeding risk scores do not have sufficient accuracy and power to discriminate between patients with VTE who are at a high risk of short-term major bleeding and those who are not.

Scherz N ，Méan M ，Limacher A ，Righini M ，Jaeger K ，Beer HJ ，Frauchiger B ，Osterwalder J ，Kucher N ，Matter CM ，Banyai M ，Angelillo-Scherrer A ，Lämmle B ，Husmann M ，Egloff M ，Aschwanden M ，Bounameaux H ，Cornuz J ，Rodondi N ，Aujesky D ... -  《-》

The American College of Chest Physician score to assess the risk of bleeding during anticoagulation in patients with venous thromboembolism.

Essentials The risk of bleeding influences the duration of anticoagulation (AC) after venous thromboembolism. We assessed the ACCP bleeding risk score in an inception-cohort of patients receiving AC. 53% were categorized at high-risk, but their bleeding rate was low during long-term AC. ACCP score had low predictive value for bleeding. Background The American College of Chest Physicians (ACCP) guideline proposes a score to decide on extended anticoagulation after an unprovoked venous thromboembolism (VTE). Methods We investigated the ACCP score to predict bleeding risk in an inception cohort of 2263 patients on long-term anticoagulation (1522 treated with vitamin K antagonists [VKAs] and the remaining with direct oral anticoagulants [DOACs]) belonging to the Italian START2 Register. Results More than half the patients were categorized as high risk; nevertheless, a higher proportion received anticoagulation for > 1 year compared with those in the low-risk category. For 3130 years (median 12 [interquartile range 6, 24] months), 48 bleeding outcomes occurred (1.53%/year) in the cohort (1.7%/year and 0.95%/year in high- and low-risk categories, respectively). The c-statistic of the ACCP score was 0.55 (0.48-0.63), 0.50 (0.42-0.58) and 0.56 (0.48-0.64) in low-, moderate- and high-risk categories, respectively. The bleeding incidence was higher during the first 90 days of treatment (3.0%/year) than afterwards (1.2%/year; relative risk (RR), 2.5 [1.3-4.7]), and similar among the three categories. The bleeding rate was not different during the initial 3 months of treatment in patients receiving VKAs or DOACs; it was, however, lower in the latter patients in the subsequent period (0.5%/year vs. 1.4%/year, respectively). Conclusion The bleeding rate during extended treatment was rather low in our patients. ACCP score had insufficiently predictive value for bleeding and cannot be used to guide decisions on extended treatment. New prediction tools for bleeding risk during anticoagulant treatments (including DOACs) are required.

Palareti G ，Antonucci E ，Mastroiacovo D ，Ageno W ，Pengo V ，Poli D ，Testa S ，Tosetto A ，Prandoni P ... -  《-》

Long-term outcomes of elderly patients with CYP2C9 and VKORC1 variants treated with vitamin K antagonists.

Essentials The long-term effects of VKORC1 and CYP2C9 variants on clinical outcomes remains unclear. We followed 774 patients ≥65 years with venous thromboembolism for a median duration of 30 months. Patients with CYP2C9 variants are at increased risk of death and non-major bleeding. Patients with genetic variants have a slightly lower anticoagulation quality only. Background The long-term effect of polymorphisms of the vitamin K-epoxide reductase (VKORC1) and the cytochrome P450 enzyme gene (CYP2C9) on clinical outcomes remains unclear. Objectives We examined the association between CYP2C9/VKORC1 variants and long-term clinical outcomes in a prospective cohort study of elderly patients treated with vitamin K antagonists for venous thromboembolism (VTE). Methods We followed 774 consecutive patients aged ≥ 65 years with acute VTE from nine Swiss hospitals for a median duration of 30 months. The median duration of initial anticoagulant treatment was 9.4 months. The primary outcome was the time to any clinical event (i.e. the composite endpoint of overall mortality, major and non-major bleeding, and recurrent VTE. Results Overall, 604 (78%) patients had a CYP2C9 or VKORC1 variant. Three hundred and thirty-four patients (43.2%) had any clinical event, 119 (15.4%) died, 100 (12.9%) had major and 167 (21.6%) non-major bleeding, and 100 had (12.9%) recurrent VTE. After adjustment, CYP2C9 (but not VKORC1) variants were associated with any clinical event (hazard ratio [HR], 1.34; 95% confidence interval [CI], 1.08-1.66), death (HR, 1.74; 95% CI, 1.19-2.52) and clinically relevant non-major bleeding (sub-hazard ratio [SHR], 1.39; 95% CI, 1.02-1.89), but not with major bleeding (SHR, 1.03; 95% CI, 0.69-1.55) or recurrent VTE (SHR, 0.95; 95% CI, 0.62-1.44). Patients with genetic variants had a slightly lower anticoagulation quality. Conclusions CYP2C9 was associated with long-term overall mortality and non-major bleeding. Although genetic variants were associated with a slightly lower anticoagulation quality, there was no relationship between genetic variants and major bleeding or VTE recurrence.

Nagler M ，Angelillo-Scherrer A ，Méan M ，Limacher A ，Abbal C ，Righini M ，Beer JH ，Osterwalder J ，Frauchiger B ，Aschwanden M ，Matter CM ，Kucher N ，Cornuz J ，Banyai M ，Husmann M ，Staub D ，Mazzolai L ，Hugli O ，Rodondi N ，Aujesky D ... -  《-》

Poor predictive value of contemporary bleeding risk scores during long-term treatment of venous thromboembolism. A multicentre retrospective cohort study.

Riva N ，Bellesini M ，Di Minno MN ，Mumoli N ，Pomero F ，Franchini M ，Fantoni C ，Lupoli R ，Brondi B ，Borretta V ，Bonfanti C ，Ageno W ，Dentali F ... -  《-》