Risk Prediction in Transition: MAGGIC Score Performance at Discharge and Incremental Utility of Natriuretic Peptides.

Risk stratification for hospitalized patients with heart failure (HF) remains a critical need. The Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score is a robust model derived from patients with ambulatory HF. Its validity at the time of discharge and the incremental value of natriuretic peptides (NPs) in this setting is unclear. This was a single-center study examining a total of 4138 patients with HF from 2 groups; hospital discharge patients from administrative data (n = 2503, 60.5%) and a prospective registry of patients with ambulatory HF (n = 1635, 39.5%). The ambulatory registry patients underwent N-terminal pro-B-type NP (BNP) measurement at enrollment, and in the hospitalize discharge cohort clinical BNP levels were abstracted. The primary endpoint was all-cause mortality within 1 year. MAGGIC score performance was compared between cohorts utilizing Cox regression and calibration plots. The incremental value of NPs was assessed using calculated area under the curve and net reclassification improvement (NRI). The hospitalized and ambulatory cohorts differed with respect to primary outcome (777 and 100 deaths, respectively), sex (52.1% vs 41.7% female) and race (35% vs 49.5% African American). The MAGGIC score showed poor discrimination of mortality risk in the hospital discharge (C statistic: 0.668, hazard ratio [HR]: 1.1 per point, 95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.652, 0.684) but fair discrimination in the ambulatory cohorts (C statistic: 0.784, HR: 1.16 per point, 95% CI: 0.74, 0.83), respectively, a difference that was statistically significant (P = .001 for C statistic, 0.002 for HR). Calibration assessment indicated that the slope and intercept (of MAGGIC-predicted to observed mortality) did not statistically differ from ideal in either cohort and did not differ between the cohorts (all P > .1). NP levels did not significantly improve prediction in the hospitalized cohort (P = .127) but did in the ambulatory cohort (C statistic: 0.784 [95% CI: 0.74, 0.83] vs 0.82 [95% CI: 0.78, 0.85]; P = .018) with a favorable NRI of 0.354 (95% CI: 0.202-0.469; P = .002). The MAGGIC score showed poor discrimination when used in patients with HF at hospital discharge, which was inferior to its performance in patients with ambulatory HF. Discrimination within the hospital discharge group was not improved by including hospital NP levels.

Michaels A ，Aurora L ，Peterson E ，Liu B ，Pinto YM ，Sabbah HN ，Williams K ，Lanfear DE ... -  《-》

Validation of the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure) heart failure risk score and the effect of adding natriuretic peptide for predicting mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with heart failure.

Khanam SS ，Choi E ，Son JW ，Lee JW ，Youn YJ ，Yoon J ，Lee SH ，Kim JY ，Ahn SG ，Ahn MS ，Kang SM ，Baek SH ，Jeon ES ，Kim JJ ，Cho MC ，Chae SC ，Oh BH ，Choi DJ ，Yoo BS ... -  《PLoS One》

Performance of the MAGGIC heart failure risk score and its modification with the addition of discharge natriuretic peptides.

Predictive models for heart failure patients are widely used in the clinical practice to stratify patients' mortality and enable clinicians to tailor and intensify their approach. However, such models have not been validated internationally. In addition, biomarkers are now frequently measured to obtain prognostic information, and the implications of this practice are not known. In this study, we aimed to validate the model performance of the Meta-analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure (MAGGIC) score in a Japanese acute heart failure registry and further explore the incremental prognostic value of discharge B-type natriuretic peptide (BNP) level. In this study, we evaluated the registered data of 2215 consecutive acute HF patients (with 694 119 person-years follow-up) from a prospective multicentre registry (the West Tokyo Heart Failure) conducted in Japan from April 2006 to August 2016. The mean age was 73.0 ± 13.0, and 61.2% were male. The MAGGIC score demonstrated modest discrimination (c-index = 0.71, 95% confidence interval 0.67-0.74) and good calibration (R2 value = 0.97); there was constant overestimation for 1 year mortality. However, when the BNP level was added to the original MAGGIC variables, the model demonstrated good discrimination (c-index = 0.74, 95% confidence interval 0.70-0.78) with adequate calibration (R2 value = 0.91). The modified MAGGIC BNP score was externally validated in a separate Japanese registry (NaDEF) and demonstrated moderate discrimination (c-index = 0.69, 95% confidence interval 0.65-0.73) and calibration (R2 value = 0.85). The original MAGGIC score performed modestly in Japanese patients, but the addition of discharge BNP level enhanced model performance. The addition of objective biomarkers may result in effective modification of preexisting internationally recognized risk models and aid in multinational comparisons of heart failure patients' outcomes.

Sawano M ，Shiraishi Y ，Kohsaka S ，Nagai T ，Goda A ，Mizuno A ，Sujino Y ，Nagatomo Y ，Kohno T ，Anzai T ，Fukuda K ，Yoshikawa T ... -  《ESC Heart Failure》

Performance of the Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure Score in Black Patients Compared With Whites.

Radjef R ，Peterson EL ，Michaels A ，Liu B ，Gui H ，Sabbah HN ，Spertus JA ，Williams LK ，Lanfear DE ... -  《Circulation-Cardiovascular Quality and Outcomes》

Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic (MAGGIC) Heart Failure Risk Score: Validation of a Simple Tool for the Prediction of Morbidity and Mortality in Heart Failure With Preserved Ejection Fraction.

Rich JD ，Burns J ，Freed BH ，Maurer MS ，Burkhoff D ，Shah SJ ... -  《Journal of the American Heart Association》