Predictive model for Zika virus RNA minipool nucleic acid testing in outbreak scenarios.

Zika virus (ZIKV), a mosquito-borne flavivirus, causes asymptomatic infections in blood donors and can be transmitted by transfusion. During the 2016 US outbreak, universal individual-donation nucleic acid testing (ID-NAT) was used to screen the blood supply for ZIKV. Testing pooled samples from multiple donations with minipool (MP)-NAT is less sensitive than ID-NAT, which raised questions about its utility in ZIKV outbreaks. A mathematical model and computer simulation determined the risk of missing ID-NAT-reactive and immunoglobulin (Ig) M-negative donations in a ZIKV outbreak if MP-NAT is used initially instead of ID-NAT. The model calculated the time required for ZIKV RNA to replicate to a concentration detectable by testing donations individually or in pools of 6 (MP6) or 16 (MP16). A computer simulation then randomly selected infection times to determine the probability of detection by the candidate tests. The probability of detecting the first ID-NAT-reactive unit in an outbreak is 92% (2.5th-97.5th percentile, 79%-99%) by MP6 and 85% (2.5th-97.5th percentile, 67%-99%) by MP16. When one donation is detected by MP-NAT, the model predicts that the chance of having missed one or more ID-NAT-reactive donations is 8% to 15%. The probability of missing a unit by MP-NAT is constant over the course of the outbreak (8% by MP6, 15% by MP16). The model predicts that the probability that a candidate MP-NAT will detect the first ID-NAT-reactive unit in a ZIKV outbreak is 85% to 92% and remains constant over time.

Yogurtcu ON ，Yang H ，Chancey C ，Forshee RA ，Eder AF ... -  《-》

Investigational Testing for Zika Virus among U.S. Blood Donors.

Saá P ，Proctor M ，Foster G ，Krysztof D ，Winton C ，Linnen JM ，Gao K ，Brodsky JP ，Limberger RJ ，Dodd RY ，Stramer SL ... -  《-》

Cost projections for implementation of safety interventions to prevent transfusion-transmitted Zika virus infection in the United States.

In August 2016, the Food and Drug Administration advised US blood centers to screen all whole blood and apheresis donations for Zika virus (ZIKV) with an individual-donor nucleic acid test (ID-NAT) or to use approved pathogen reduction technology (PRT). The cost of implementing this guidance nationally has not been assessed. Scenarios were constructed to characterize approaches to ZIKV screening, including universal ID-NAT, risk-based seasonal allowance of minipool (MP) NAT by state, and universal MP-NAT. Data from the 2015 National Blood Collection and Utilization Survey (NBCUS) were used to characterize the number of donations nationally and by state. For each scenario, the estimated cost per donor ($3-$9 for MP-NAT, $7-$13 for ID-NAT) was multiplied by the estimated number of relevant donations from the NBCUS. Cost of PRT was calculated by multiplying the cost per unit ($50-$125) by the number of units approved for PRT. Prediction intervals for costs were generated using Monte Carlo simulation methods. Screening all donations in the 50 states and DC for ZIKV by ID-NAT would cost $137 million (95% confidence interval [CI], $109-$167) annually. Allowing seasonal MP-NAT in states with lower ZIKV risk could reduce NAT screening costs by 18% to 25%. Application of PRT to all platelet (PLT) and plasma units would cost $213 million (95% CI, $156-$304). Universal ID-NAT screening for ZIKV will cost US blood centers more than $100 million annually. The high cost of PRT for apheresis PLTs and plasma could be mitigated if, once validated, testing for transfusion transmissible pathogens could be eliminated.

Ellingson KD ，Sapiano MRP ，Haass KA ，Savinkina AA ，Baker ML ，Henry RA ，Berger JJ ，Kuehnert MJ ，Basavaraju SV ... -  《-》

Screening the Blood Supply for Zika Virus in the 50 U.S. States and Puerto Rico: A Cost-Effectiveness Analysis.

Russell WA ，Stramer SL ，Busch MP ，Custer B ... -  《-》

First Zika-positive donations in the continental United States.

Zika virus (ZIKV) has spread in the Americas, including parts of the southern United States, and infection can be associated with serious complications, including congenital brain abnormalities. Probable transfusion transmission of ZIKV has been documented in Brazil. Preemptive testing of blood donations for ZIKV RNA was implemented in southern US states at risk of local transmission using a test approved under a Food and Drug Administration (FDA) investigational new drug application, cobas Zika. Screening was expanded after issuance of an updated FDA guidance. Donations reactive on initial screening were further tested by nucleic acid and antibody tests to determine the donor status. Of 358,786 donations from US states screened by individual donation testing, 23 were initially reactive on cobas Zika. Fourteen of these represented probable ZIKV infection based on reactivity on additional nucleic acid testing or anti-Zika immunoglobulin M. Ten of the 14 donors reported travel to an identified ZIKV-active area within 90 days before donation (median time from end of travel to donation, 25 days; range, 6-71 days). Three donors with travel history also had a potential sexual exposure. Only seven of the 14 donations with probable ZIKV infection were detectable upon 1:6 dilution to simulate minipool testing. The estimated specificity of the cobas Zika test was 99.997%. Screening of donations for ZIKV RNA can interdict ZIKV-infected donors. Donor risk factors include travel more than 4 weeks before donation and sexual exposure. Minipool screening would have detected only 50% of the RNA-positive donations.

Galel SA ，Williamson PC ，Busch MP ，Stanek D ，Bakkour S ，Stone M ，Lu K ，Jones S ，Rossmann SN ，Pate LL ，cobas Zika IND Study Group ... -  《-》