Risk prediction for 30-day heart failure-specific readmission or death after discharge: Data from the Korean Acute Heart Failure (KorAHF) registry.

Identifying patients with acute heart failure (HF) at high risk for readmission or death after hospital discharge will enable the optimization of treatment and management. The objective of this study was to develop a risk score for 30-day HF-specific readmission or death in Korea. We analyzed the data from the Korean Acute Heart Failure (KorAHF) registry to develop a risk score. The model was derived from a multiple logistic regression analysis using a stepwise variable selection method. We also proposed a point-based risk score to predict the risk of 30-day HF-specific readmission or death by simply summing the scores assigned to each risk variable. Model performance was assessed using an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, the net reclassification improvement (NRI), and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) index to evaluate discrimination, calibration, and reclassification, respectively. Data from 4566 patients aged ≥40 years were included in the analysis. Among them, 446 (9.8%) had 30-day HF-specific readmission or death. The final model included 12 independent variables (age, New York Heart Association functional class, clinical history of hypertension, HF admission, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, etiology of cardiomyopathy, systolic blood pressure, left ventricular ejection fraction, serum sodium, brain natriuretic peptide, N-terminal prohormone of brain natriuretic peptide at discharge, and prescription of β-blockers and angiotensin-converting enzyme inhibitors or angiotensin II receptor antagonists at discharge). The point risk score showed moderate discrimination (AUC of 0.710; 95% confidence interval, 0.685-0.735) and good calibration (χ2=8.540, p=0.3826). The risk score for the prediction of the risk of 30-day HF-specific readmission or death after hospital discharge was developed using 12 predictors. It can be utilized to guide appropriate interventions or care strategies for patients with HF.

Lim NK ，Lee SE ，Lee HY ，Cho HJ ，Choe WS ，Kim H ，Choi JO ，Jeon ES ，Kim MS ，Kim JJ ，Hwang KK ，Chae SC ，Baek SH ，Kang SM ，Choi DJ ，Yoo BS ，Kim KH ，Cho MC ，Oh BH ，Park HY ... -  《-》

Validation of the MAGGIC (Meta-Analysis Global Group in Chronic Heart Failure) heart failure risk score and the effect of adding natriuretic peptide for predicting mortality after discharge in hospitalized patients with heart failure.

Khanam SS ，Choi E ，Son JW ，Lee JW ，Youn YJ ，Yoon J ，Lee SH ，Kim JY ，Ahn SG ，Ahn MS ，Kang SM ，Baek SH ，Jeon ES ，Kim JJ ，Cho MC ，Chae SC ，Oh BH ，Choi DJ ，Yoo BS ... -  《PLoS One》

A novel discharge risk model for patients hospitalised for acute decompensated heart failure incorporating N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide levels: a European coLlaboration on Acute decompeNsated Heart Failure: ELAN-HF Score.

Salah K ，Kok WE ，Eurlings LW ，Bettencourt P ，Pimenta JM ，Metra M ，Bayes-Genis A ，Verdiani V ，Bettari L ，Lazzarini V ，Damman P ，Tijssen JG ，Pinto YM ... -  《-》

Clinical utility of N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide for risk stratification of patients with acute decompensated heart failure. Derivation and validation of the ADHF/NT-proBNP risk score.

NT-proBNP has been associated with prognosis in acute decompensated heart failure (ADHF). Whether NT-proBNP provides additional prognostic information beyond that obtained from standard clinical variables is uncertain. We sought to assess whether N-terminal pro-B-type natriuretic peptide (NT-proBNP) determination improves risk reclassification of patients with ADHF and to develop and validate a point-based NT-proBNP risk score. This study included 824 patients with ADHF (453 in the derivation cohort, 371 in the validation cohort). We compared two multivariable models predicting 1-year all-cause mortality, including clinical variables and clinical variables plus NT-proBNP. We calculated the net reclassification improvement (NRI) and the integrated discrimination improvement (IDI). Then, we developed and externally validated the NT-proBNP risk score. One-year mortalities for the derivation and validation cohorts were 28.3% and 23.4%, respectively. Multivariable predictors of mortality included chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, estimated glomerular filtration rate, sodium, hemoglobin, left ventricular ejection fraction, and moderate to severe tricuspid regurgitation. Adding NT-proBNP to the clinical variables only model significantly improved the NRI (0.129; p=0.0027) and the IDI (0.037; p=0.0005). In the derivation cohort, the NT-proBNP risk score had a C index of 0.839 (95% CI: 0.798-0.880) and the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 1.23 (p=0.542), indicating good calibration. In the validation cohort, the risk score had a C index of 0.768 (95% CI: 0.711-0.817); the Hosmer-Lemeshow statistic was 2.76 (p=0.251), after recalibration. The NT-proBNP risk score provides clinicians with a contemporary, accurate, easy-to-use, and validated predictive tool. Further validation in other datasets is advisable.

Scrutinio D ，Ammirati E ，Guida P ，Passantino A ，Raimondo R ，Guida V ，Sarzi Braga S ，Pedretti RF ，Lagioia R ，Frigerio M ，Catanzaro R ，Oliva F ... -  《-》

Mild cognitive impairment predicts death and readmission within 30days of discharge for heart failure.

Cognitive impairment is highly prevalent in heart failure (HF), and may be associated with short-term readmission. This study investigated the role of cognition, incremental to other clinical and non-clinical factors, independent of depression and anxiety, in predicting 30-day readmission or death in HF. This study followed 565 patients from an Australia-wide HF longitudinal study. Cognitive function (MoCA score) together with standard clinical and non-clinical factors, mental health and 2D echocardiograms were collected before hospital discharge. The study outcomes were death and readmission within 30days of discharge. Logistic regression, Harrell's C-statistic, integrated discrimination improvement (IDI) and net reclassification index were used for analysis. Among 565 patients, 255 (45%) had at least mild cognitive impairment (MoCA≤22). Death (n=43, 8%) and readmission (n=122, 21%) within 30days of discharge were more likely to occur among patients with mild cognitive impairment (OR=2.00, p=0.001). MoCA score was also negatively associated with 30-day readmission or death (OR=0.91, p<0.001) independent of other risk factors. Adding MoCA score to an existing prediction model of 30-day readmission significantly improved discrimination (C-statistic=0.715 vs. 0.617, IDI estimate 0.077, p<0.001). From prediction models developed from our study, adding MoCA score (C-statistic=0.83) provided incremental value to that of standard clinical and non-clinical factors (C-statistic=0.76) and echocardiogram parameters (C-statistic=0.81) in predicting 30-day readmission or death. Reclassification analysis suggests that addition of MoCA score improved classification for a net of 12% of patients with 30-day readmission or death and of 6% of patients without (p=0.002). Mild cognitive impairment predicts short-term outcomes in HF, independent of clinical and non-clinical factors.

Huynh QL ，Negishi K ，Blizzard L ，Saito M ，De Pasquale CG ，Hare JL ，Leung D ，Stanton T ，Sanderson K ，Venn AJ ，Marwick TH ... -  《-》