Nomogram for Individualized Prediction and Prognostic Factors for Survival in Patients with Primary Spinal Chordoma: A Population-Based Longitudinal Cohort Study.
Chordoma is a type of rare bone tumor and is a relatively slow-growing, low-grade malignancy that is locally invasive and aggressive. The nomogram is widely used in the field of cancer because it can provide a clear picture for clinicians to predict the survival rate, which can lead more accurate decisions in clinical treatment.
Overall, 875 patients with a primary spinal chordoma were identified and collected from the Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results registry databases (1973-2015). The nomogram was established based on 425 patients with complete data. The predictive accuracy and discriminative ability of the nomogram were determined by the concordance index (C-index) and calibration curve.
The statistical nomogram was built on 10 independent prognostic factors: age, sex, race, disease stage, surgery, year of diagnosis, marital status, primary site, radiation, and tumor size, with C-indices of 0.76. The calibration curve to determine the probability of survival showed good agreement between the predictions by the nomogram and actual observation. Tumor diameter >10 cm (hazard ratio [HR] 2.95, 95% confidence interval [CI] 1.77-4.90, P < 0.001), regional invasive (HR 1.71, 95% CI 1.16-2.53, P < 0.01), and distant metastasis (HR 3.44, 95% CI 1.98-5.96, P< 0.001) were independent risk factors for poor survival. Undergoing subtotal resection or gross total resection (HR 0.37, 95% CI 0.25-0.56, P < 0.001; HR 0.26, 95% CI 0.17-0.41, respectively) and a primary site located in the sacrum/pelvis (HR 0.51, 95% CI 0.34-0.78, P < 0.01) were prognostic factors for better survival.
The nomogram provided more accurate prognostic predictions for patients with spinal chordoma. Moreover, our study suggests that tumor diameter >5 cm, distant metastasis, and not performing resection are major risk factors that can dramatically decrease the survival time of patients with spinal chordoma.
Huang JF
，Chen D
，Sang CM
，Zheng XQ
，Lin JL
，Lin Y
，Ni WF
，Wang XY
，Li YM
，Wu AM
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Prognostic Factors and Survival Outcome in Patients with Chordoma in the United States: A Population-Based Analysis.
To evaluate prognostic factors of patients with chordoma through a population-based analysis.
Surveillance, Epidemiology, and End Results (SEER) database was queried for patients with chordoma from 1973 to 2013. Kaplan-Meier univariate analysis and Cox regression multivariate analysis were performed to examine prognostic factors in overall survival (OS) and disease-specific survival (DSS).
One thousand five hundred ninety-eight patients with chordoma are identified. Kaplan-Meier analysis showed that OS and DSS were 61% and 71% at 5 years and 41% and 57% at 10 years. Multivariate Cox regression analysis demonstrated that independent predictors of OS and DSS are age at diagnosis (hazard ratio [HR]= 2.80 [95% confidence interval {CI}, 2.12-3.70], P < 0.001; HR = 1.60 [95% CI, 1.18-2.16], P = 0.002), surgical treatment (HR = 0.62 [95% CI, 0.52-0.73], P < 0.001; HR = 0.64 [95% CI, 0.52-0.79], P < 0.001), radiation therapy (HR = 1.23 [95% CI, 1.07-1.42], P = 0.004; HR = 1.29 [95% CI, 1.09-1.54], P = 0.004), tumor size (HR = 1.53 [95% CI, 1.32-1.78], P < 0.001; HR = 1.62 [95% CI, 1.35-1.94], P < 0.001) and distant metastasis (HR = 3.40 [95% CI, 2.45-4.71], P < 0.001; HR = 3.77 [95% CI, 2.61-5.45], P < 0.001).
We report the largest study to date to evaluate prognostic factors of patients with chordoma. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that older age, greater tumor size, and distant metastasis were correlated with decreased survival, whereas surgical resection was correlated with increased survival. Patients receiving radiation therapy also showed decreased survival, likely an indication of the patients' advanced stage of disease, making them poor surgical candidates.
Lee IJ
，Lee RJ
，Fahim DK
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