Using a rule-based envelope model to predict the expansion of habitat suitability within New Zealand for the tick Haemaphysalis longicornis, with future projections based on two climate change scenarios.

Haemaphysalis longicornis is the only species of tick present in New Zealand which infests livestock and is also the only competent vector for Theileria orientalis. Since 2012, New Zealand has suffered from an epidemic of infectious bovine anaemia associated with T. orientalis, an obligate intracellular protozoan parasite of cattle and buffaloes. The aim of this study was to predict the spatial distribution of habitat suitability of New Zealand for the tick H. longicornis using a simple rule-based climate envelope model, to validate the model against published data and use the validated model to project an expansion in habitat suitability for H. longicornis under two alternative climate change scenarios for the periods 2046-2065 and 2081-2100, relative to the climate of 1981-2010. A rule-based climate envelope model was developed based on the environmental requirements for off-host tick survival. The resulting model was validated against a maximum entropy environmental niche model of environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission and against a H. longicornis occurrence map. Validation was completed using the I-similarity statistic and by linear regression. The H. longicornis climate envelope model predicted that 75% of cattle farms in the North Island, 3% of cattle farms in the South Island and 54% of cattle farms in New Zealand overall have habitats potentially suitable for the establishment of H. longicornis. The validation methods showed an acceptable level of agreement between the envelope model and published data. Both of the climate change scenarios, for each of the time periods, projected only slight to moderate increases in the average farm habitat suitability scores for all the South Island regions. However, only for the West Coast, Marlborough, Tasman, and Nelson regions did these increases in environmental suitability translate into an increased proportion of cattle farms with low or high H. longicornis habitat suitability. These results will have important implications for the geographical progression of Theileria-associated bovine anaemia (TABA) in New Zealand and will also be of interest to Haemaphysalis longicornis researchers in Australia, Japan, Korea and New Zealand.

Lawrence KE ，Summers SR ，Heath ACG ，McFadden AMJ ，Pulford DJ ，Tait AB ，Pomroy WE ... -  《-》

Predicting the potential environmental suitability for Theileria orientalis transmission in New Zealand cattle using maximum entropy niche modelling.

The tick-borne haemoparasite Theileria orientalis is the most important infectious cause of anaemia in New Zealand cattle. Since 2012 a previously unrecorded type, T. orientalis type 2 (Ikeda), has been associated with disease outbreaks of anaemia, lethargy, jaundice and deaths on over 1000 New Zealand cattle farms, with most of the affected farms found in the upper North Island. The aim of this study was to model the relative environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission throughout New Zealand, to predict the proportion of cattle farms potentially suitable for active T. orientalis infection by region, island and the whole of New Zealand and to estimate the average relative environmental suitability per farm by region, island and the whole of New Zealand. The relative environmental suitability for T. orientalis transmission was estimated using the Maxent (maximum entropy) modelling program. The Maxent model predicted that 99% of North Island cattle farms (n=36,257), 64% South Island cattle farms (n=15,542) and 89% of New Zealand cattle farms overall (n=51,799) could potentially be suitable for T. orientalis transmission. The average relative environmental suitability of T. orientalis transmission at the farm level was 0.34 in the North Island, 0.02 in the South Island and 0.24 overall. The study showed that the potential spatial distribution of T. orientalis environmental suitability was much greater than presumed in the early part of the Theileria associated bovine anaemia (TABA) epidemic. Maximum entropy offers a computer efficient method of modelling the probability of habitat suitability for an arthropod vectored disease. This model could help estimate the boundaries of the endemically stable and endemically unstable areas for T. orientalis transmission within New Zealand and be of considerable value in informing practitioner and farmer biosecurity decisions in these respective areas.

Lawrence KE ，Summers SR ，Heath ACG ，McFadden AMJ ，Pulford DJ ，Pomroy WE ... -  《-》

Biology, ecology and distribution of the tick, Haemaphysalis longicornis Neumann (Acari: Ixodidae) in New Zealand.

Heath A 《NEW ZEALAND VETERINARY JOURNAL》

Predicting the potential distribution of Amblyomma americanum (Acari: Ixodidae) infestation in New Zealand, using maximum entropy-based ecological niche modelling.

Raghavan RK ，Heath ACG ，Lawrence KE ，Ganta RR ，Peterson AT ，Pomroy WE ... -  《-》

Theileria orientalis Ikeda in host-seeking Haemaphysalis longicornis in Virginia, U.S.A.

The Asian longhorned tick, Haemaphysalis longicornis, has recently become established in the United States. In East Asia, Australia, and New Zealand, the native and previously introduced ranges, this tick is a vector of an important pathogen of cattle, Theileria orientalis. In 2017, the pathogenic Ikeda genotype of T. orientalis was associated with cattle mortalities in Virginia and in 2018 the exotic H. longicornis was detected at this same site. To investigate the possible role of this exotic tick in the epidemiology of theileriosis in Virginia, we tested host-seeking H. longicornis for piroplasm infections. We document the detection of exotic Theileria orientalis Ikeda genotype in 12.7 % (15/118) environmentally collected H. longicornis using both the 18S rRNA and major piroplasm surface protein (MPSP) gene targets. This is the first detection of a pathogen in H. longicornis in its introduced range in the United States and offers new insight into the animal health risks associated with the introduction of this exotic tick species to North America.

Thompson AT ，White S ，Shaw D ，Egizi A ，Lahmers K ，Ruder MG ，Yabsley MJ ... -  《-》