DNA methylation-based forensic age prediction using artificial neural networks and next generation sequencing.

The ability to estimate the age of the donor from recovered biological material at a crime scene can be of substantial value in forensic investigations. Aging can be complex and is associated with various molecular modifications in cells that accumulate over a person's lifetime including epigenetic patterns. The aim of this study was to use age-specific DNA methylation patterns to generate an accurate model for the prediction of chronological age using data from whole blood. In total, 45 age-associated CpG sites were selected based on their reported age coefficients in a previous extensive study and investigated using publicly available methylation data obtained from 1156 whole blood samples (aged 2-90 years) analysed with Illumina's genome-wide methylation platforms (27K/450K). Applying stepwise regression for variable selection, 23 of these CpG sites were identified that could significantly contribute to age prediction modelling and multiple regression analysis carried out with these markers provided an accurate prediction of age (R2=0.92, mean absolute error (MAE)=4.6 years). However, applying machine learning, and more specifically a generalised regression neural network model, the age prediction significantly improved (R2=0.96) with a MAE=3.3 years for the training set and 4.4 years for a blind test set of 231 cases. The machine learning approach used 16 CpG sites, located in 16 different genomic regions, with the top 3 predictors of age belonged to the genes NHLRC1, SCGN and CSNK1D. The proposed model was further tested using independent cohorts of 53 monozygotic twins (MAE=7.1 years) and a cohort of 1011 disease state individuals (MAE=7.2 years). Furthermore, we highlighted the age markers' potential applicability in samples other than blood by predicting age with similar accuracy in 265 saliva samples (R2=0.96) with a MAE=3.2 years (training set) and 4.0 years (blind test). In an attempt to create a sensitive and accurate age prediction test, a next generation sequencing (NGS)-based method able to quantify the methylation status of the selected 16 CpG sites was developed using the Illumina MiSeq® platform. The method was validated using DNA standards of known methylation levels and the age prediction accuracy has been initially assessed in a set of 46 whole blood samples. Although the resulted prediction accuracy using the NGS data was lower compared to the original model (MAE=7.5years), it is expected that future optimization of our strategy to account for technical variation as well as increasing the sample size will improve both the prediction accuracy and reproducibility.

Vidaki A ，Ballard D ，Aliferi A ，Miller TH ，Barron LP ，Syndercombe Court D ... -  《-》

Comparison of Two Modern Survival Prediction Tools, SORG-MLA and METSSS, in Patients With Symptomatic Long-bone Metastases Who Underwent Local Treatment With Surgery Followed by Radiotherapy and With Radiotherapy Alone.

Survival estimation for patients with symptomatic skeletal metastases ideally should be made before a type of local treatment has already been determined. Currently available survival prediction tools, however, were generated using data from patients treated either operatively or with local radiation alone, raising concerns about whether they would generalize well to all patients presenting for assessment. The Skeletal Oncology Research Group machine-learning algorithm (SORG-MLA), trained with institution-based data of surgically treated patients, and the Metastases location, Elderly, Tumor primary, Sex, Sickness/comorbidity, and Site of radiotherapy model (METSSS), trained with registry-based data of patients treated with radiotherapy alone, are two of the most recently developed survival prediction models, but they have not been tested on patients whose local treatment strategy is not yet decided. (1) Which of these two survival prediction models performed better in a mixed cohort made up both of patients who received local treatment with surgery followed by radiotherapy and who had radiation alone for symptomatic bone metastases? (2) Which model performed better among patients whose local treatment consisted of only palliative radiotherapy? (3) Are laboratory values used by SORG-MLA, which are not included in METSSS, independently associated with survival after controlling for predictions made by METSSS? Between 2010 and 2018, we provided local treatment for 2113 adult patients with skeletal metastases in the extremities at an urban tertiary referral academic medical center using one of two strategies: (1) surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy or (2) palliative radiotherapy alone. Every patient's survivorship status was ascertained either by their medical records or the national death registry from the Taiwanese National Health Insurance Administration. After applying a priori designated exclusion criteria, 91% (1920) were analyzed here. Among them, 48% (920) of the patients were female, and the median (IQR) age was 62 years (53 to 70 years). Lung was the most common primary tumor site (41% [782]), and 59% (1128) of patients had other skeletal metastases in addition to the treated lesion(s). In general, the indications for surgery were the presence of a complete pathologic fracture or an impending pathologic fracture, defined as having a Mirels score of ≥ 9, in patients with an American Society of Anesthesiologists (ASA) classification of less than or equal to IV and who were considered fit for surgery. The indications for radiotherapy were relief of pain, local tumor control, prevention of skeletal-related events, and any combination of the above. In all, 84% (1610) of the patients received palliative radiotherapy alone as local treatment for the target lesion(s), and 16% (310) underwent surgery followed by postoperative radiotherapy. Neither METSSS nor SORG-MLA was used at the point of care to aid clinical decision-making during the treatment period. Survival was retrospectively estimated by these two models to test their potential for providing survival probabilities. We first compared SORG to METSSS in the entire population. Then, we repeated the comparison in patients who received local treatment with palliative radiation alone. We assessed model performance by area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUROC), calibration analysis, Brier score, and decision curve analysis (DCA). The AUROC measures discrimination, which is the ability to distinguish patients with the event of interest (such as death at a particular time point) from those without. AUROC typically ranges from 0.5 to 1.0, with 0.5 indicating random guessing and 1.0 a perfect prediction, and in general, an AUROC of ≥ 0.7 indicates adequate discrimination for clinical use. Calibration refers to the agreement between the predicted outcomes (in this case, survival probabilities) and the actual outcomes, with a perfect calibration curve having an intercept of 0 and a slope of 1. A positive intercept indicates that the actual survival is generally underestimated by the prediction model, and a negative intercept suggests the opposite (overestimation). When comparing models, an intercept closer to 0 typically indicates better calibration. Calibration can also be summarized as log(O:E), the logarithm scale of the ratio of observed (O) to expected (E) survivors. A log(O:E) > 0 signals an underestimation (the observed survival is greater than the predicted survival); and a log(O:E) < 0 indicates the opposite (the observed survival is lower than the predicted survival). A model with a log(O:E) closer to 0 is generally considered better calibrated. The Brier score is the mean squared difference between the model predictions and the observed outcomes, and it ranges from 0 (best prediction) to 1 (worst prediction). The Brier score captures both discrimination and calibration, and it is considered a measure of overall model performance. In Brier score analysis, the "null model" assigns a predicted probability equal to the prevalence of the outcome and represents a model that adds no new information. A prediction model should achieve a Brier score at least lower than the null-model Brier score to be considered as useful. The DCA was developed as a method to determine whether using a model to inform treatment decisions would do more good than harm. It plots the net benefit of making decisions based on the model's predictions across all possible risk thresholds (or cost-to-benefit ratios) in relation to the two default strategies of treating all or no patients. The care provider can decide on an acceptable risk threshold for the proposed treatment in an individual and assess the corresponding net benefit to determine whether consulting with the model is superior to adopting the default strategies. Finally, we examined whether laboratory data, which were not included in the METSSS model, would have been independently associated with survival after controlling for the METSSS model's predictions by using the multivariable logistic and Cox proportional hazards regression analyses. Between the two models, only SORG-MLA achieved adequate discrimination (an AUROC of > 0.7) in the entire cohort (of patients treated operatively or with radiation alone) and in the subgroup of patients treated with palliative radiotherapy alone. SORG-MLA outperformed METSSS by a wide margin on discrimination, calibration, and Brier score analyses in not only the entire cohort but also the subgroup of patients whose local treatment consisted of radiotherapy alone. In both the entire cohort and the subgroup, DCA demonstrated that SORG-MLA provided more net benefit compared with the two default strategies (of treating all or no patients) and compared with METSSS when risk thresholds ranged from 0.2 to 0.9 at both 90 days and 1 year, indicating that using SORG-MLA as a decision-making aid was beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting for treatment was 0.2 to 0.9. Higher albumin, lower alkaline phosphatase, lower calcium, higher hemoglobin, lower international normalized ratio, higher lymphocytes, lower neutrophils, lower neutrophil-to-lymphocyte ratio, lower platelet-to-lymphocyte ratio, higher sodium, and lower white blood cells were independently associated with better 1-year and overall survival after adjusting for the predictions made by METSSS. Based on these discoveries, clinicians might choose to consult SORG-MLA instead of METSSS for survival estimation in patients with long-bone metastases presenting for evaluation of local treatment. Basing a treatment decision on the predictions of SORG-MLA could be beneficial when a patient's individualized risk threshold for opting to undergo a particular treatment strategy ranged from 0.2 to 0.9. Future studies might investigate relevant laboratory items when constructing or refining a survival estimation model because these data demonstrated prognostic value independent of the predictions of the METSSS model, and future studies might also seek to keep these models up to date using data from diverse, contemporary patients undergoing both modern operative and nonoperative treatments. Level III, diagnostic study.

Lee CC ，Chen CW ，Yen HK ，Lin YP ，Lai CY ，Wang JL ，Groot OQ ，Janssen SJ ，Schwab JH ，Hsu FM ，Lin WH ... -  《-》

Can a Liquid Biopsy Detect Circulating Tumor DNA With Low-passage Whole-genome Sequencing in Patients With a Sarcoma? A Pilot Evaluation.

A liquid biopsy is a test that evaluates the status of a disease by analyzing a sample of bodily fluid, most commonly blood. In recent years, there has been progress in the development and clinical application of liquid biopsy methods to identify blood-based, tumor-specific biomarkers for many cancer types. However, the implementation of these technologies to aid in the treatment of patients who have a sarcoma remains behind other fields of cancer medicine. For this study, we chose to evaluate a sarcoma liquid biopsy based on circulating tumor DNA (ctDNA). All human beings have normal cell-free DNA (cfDNA) circulating in the blood. In contrast with cfDNA, ctDNA is genetic material present in the blood stream that is derived from a tumor. ctDNA carries the unique genomic fingerprint of the tumor with changes that are not present in normal circulating cfDNA. A successful ctDNA liquid biopsy must be able to target these tumor-specific genetic alterations. For instance, epidermal growth factor receptor (EGFR) mutations are common in lung cancers, and ctDNA liquid biopsies are currently in clinical use to evaluate the status of disease in patients who have a lung cancer by detecting EGFR mutations in the blood. As opposed to many carcinomas, sarcomas do not have common recurrent mutations that could serve as the foundation to a ctDNA liquid biopsy. However, many sarcomas have structural changes to their chromosomes, including gains and losses of portions or entire chromosomes, known as copy number alterations (CNAs), that could serve as a target for a ctDNA liquid biopsy. Murine double minute 2 (MDM2) amplification in select lipomatous tumors or parosteal osteosarcoma is an example of a CNA due to the presence of extra copies of a segment of the long arm of chromosome 12. Since a majority of sarcomas demonstrate a complex karyotype with numerous CNAs, a blood-based liquid biopsy strategy that searches for these CNAs may be able to detect the presence of sarcoma ctDNA. Whole-genome sequencing (WGS) is a next-generation sequencing technique that evaluates the entire genome. The depth of coverage of WGS refers to how detailed the sequencing is, like higher versus lower power on a microscope. WGS can be performed with high-depth sequencing (that is, > 60×), which can detect individual point mutations, or low-depth sequencing (that is, 0.1× to 5×), referred to as low-passage whole-genome sequencing (LP-WGS), which may not detect individual mutations but can detect structural chromosomal changes including gains and losses (that is, CNAs). While similar strategies have shown favorable early results for specific sarcoma subtypes, LP-WGS has not been evaluated for applicability to the broader population of patients who have a sarcoma. Does an LP-WGS liquid biopsy evaluating for CNAs detect ctDNA in plasma samples from patients who have sarcomas representing a variety of histologic subtypes? This was a retrospective study conducted at a community-based, tertiary referral center. Nine paired (plasma and formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded [FFPE] tissue) and four unpaired (plasma) specimens from patients who had a sarcoma were obtained from a commercial biospecimen bank. Three control specimens from individuals who did not have cancer were also obtained. The paired and unpaired specimens from patients who had a sarcoma represented a variety of sarcoma histologic subtypes. cfDNA was extracted, amplified, and quantified. Libraries were prepared, and LP-WGS was performed using a NextSeq 500 next-generation sequencing machine at a low depth of sequencing coverage (∼1×). The ichorCNA bioinformatics algorithm, which was designed to detect CNAs from low-depth genomic sequencing data, was used to analyze the data. In contrast with the gold standard for diagnosis in the form of histopathologic analysis of a tissue sample, this test does not discriminate between sarcoma subtypes but detects the presence of tumor-derived CNAs within the ctDNA in the blood that should not be present in a patient who does not have cancer. The liquid biopsy was positive for the detection of cancer if the ichorCNA algorithm detected the presence of ctDNA. The algorithm was also used to quantitatively estimate the percent ctDNA within the cfDNA. The concentration of ctDNA was then calculated from the percent ctDNA relative to the total concentration of cfDNA. The CNAs of the paired FFPE tissue and plasma samples were graphically visualized using aCNViewer software. This LP-WGS liquid biopsy detected ctDNA in 9 of 13 of the plasma specimens from patients with a sarcoma. The other four samples from patients with a sarcoma and all serum specimens from patients without cancer had no detectable ctDNA. Of those 9 patients with positive liquid biopsy results, the percent ctDNA ranged from 6% to 11%, and calculated ctDNA quantities were 0.04 to 5.6 ng/mL, which are levels to be expected when ctDNA is detectable. In this small pilot study, we were able to detect sarcoma ctDNA with an LP-WGS liquid biopsy searching for CNAs in the plasma of most patients who had a sarcoma representing a variety of histologic subtypes. These results suggest that an LP-WGS liquid biopsy evaluating for CNAs to identify ctDNA may be more broadly applicable to the population of patients who have a sarcoma than previously reported in studies focusing on specific subtypes. Large prospective clinical trials that gather samples at multiple time points during the process of diagnosis, treatment, and surveillance will be needed to further assess whether this technique can be clinically useful. At our institution, we are in the process of developing a large prospective clinical trial for this purpose.

Anderson CJ ，Yang H ，Parsons J ，Ahrens WA ，Jagosky MH ，Hsu JH ，Patt JC ，Kneisl JS ，Steuerwald NM ... -  《-》

Defining the optimum strategy for identifying adults and children with coeliac disease: systematic review and economic modelling.

Elwenspoek MM ，Thom H ，Sheppard AL ，Keeney E ，O'Donnell R ，Jackson J ，Roadevin C ，Dawson S ，Lane D ，Stubbs J ，Everitt H ，Watson JC ，Hay AD ，Gillett P ，Robins G ，Jones HE ，Mallett S ，Whiting PF ... -  《-》

Graph Convolutional Network for AD and MCI Diagnosis Utilizing Peripheral DNA Methylation: Réseau de neurones en graphes pour le diagnostic de la MA et du TCL à l'aide de la méthylation de l'ADN périphérique.

Qian Y ，Tang X ，Shen R ，Lu Y ，Ding J ，Qian X ，Zhang C ... -  《-》