Landscape changes in a neotropical forest-savanna ecotone zone in central Brazil: The role of protected areas in the maintenance of native vegetation.

In the Amazon-savanna ecotone in northwest Brazil, the understudied Araguaia River Basin contains high biodiversity and seasonal wetlands. The region is representative of tropical humid-dry ecotone zones, which have experienced intense land use and land cover (LULC) conversions. Here we assessed the LULC changes for the last four decades in the central portion of the Araguaia River Basin to understand the temporal changes in the landscape composition and configuration outside and inside protected areas. We conducted these analyzes by LULC mapping and landscape metrics based on patch classes. During this period, native vegetation was reduced by 26%. Forests were the most threatened physiognomy, with significant areal reduction and fragmentation. Native vegetation cover was mainly replaced by croplands and pastures. Such replacement followed spatial and temporal trends related to the implementation of protected areas and increases in population cattle herds. The creation of most protected areas took place between 1996 and 2007, the same period during which the conversion of the landscape matrix from natural vegetation to agriculture occurred. We observed that protected areas mitigate fragmentation, but their roles differ according to their location and level of protection. Still, we argue that landscape characteristics, such as suitability for agriculture, also influence landscape conversions and should be considered when establishing protected areas. The information provided in this study can guide new research on species conservation and landscape planning, as well as improve the understanding of the impacts of landscape composition and configuration changes.

Garcia AS ，Sawakuchi HO ，Ferreira ME ，Ballester MVR ... -  《-》

Mapping LULC types in the Cerrado-Atlantic Forest ecotone region using a Landsat time series and object-based image approach: A case study of the Prata River Basin, Mato Grosso do Sul, Brazil.

da Cunha ER ，Santos CAG ，da Silva RM ，Bacani VM ，Teodoro PE ，Panachuki E ，de Souza Oliveira N ... -  《-》

Four decades of land-cover, land-use and hydroclimatology changes in the Itacaiúnas River watershed, southeastern Amazon.

Long-term human-induced impacts have significantly changed the Amazonian landscape. The most dramatic land cover and land use (LCLU) changes began in the early 1970s with the establishment of the Trans-Amazon Highway and large government projects associated with the expansion of agricultural settlement and cattle ranching, which cleared significant tropical forest cover in the areas of new and accelerated human development. Taking the changes in the LCLU over the past four decades as a basis, this study aims to determine the consequences of land cover (forest and savanna) and land use (pasturelands, mining and urban) changes on the hydroclimatology of the Itacaiúnas River watershed area of the located in the southeastern Amazon region. We analyzed a multi-decadal Landsat dataset from 1973, 1984, 1994, 2004 and 2013 and a 40-yr time series of water discharge from the Itacaiúnas River, as well as air temperature and relative humidity data over this drainage area for the same period. We employed standard Landsat image processing techniques in conjunction with a geographic object-based image analysis and multi-resolution classification approach. With the goal of detecting possible long-term trends, non-parametric Mann-Kendall test was applied, based on a Sen slope estimator on a 40-yr annual PREC, TMED and RH time series, considering the spatial average of the entire watershed. In the 1970s, the region was entirely covered by forest (99%) and savanna (∼0.3%). Four decades later, only ∼48% of the tropical forest remains, while pasturelands occupy approximately 50% of the watershed area. Moreover, in protected areas, nearly 97% of the tropical forest remains conserved, while the forest cover of non-protected areas is quite fragmented and, consequently, unevenly distributed, covering an area of only 30%. Based on observational data analysis, there is evidence that the conversion of forest cover to extensive and homogeneous pasturelands was accompanied by systematic modifications to the hydroclimatology cycle of the Itacaiúnas watershed, thus highlighting drier environmental conditions due to a rise in the region's air temperature, a decrease in the relative humidity, and an increase in river discharge.

Souza-Filho PW ，de Souza EB ，Silva Júnior RO ，Nascimento WR Jr ，Versiani de Mendonça BR ，Guimarães JT ，Dall'Agnol R ，Siqueira JO ... -  《-》

Protected areas and agricultural expansion: Biodiversity conservation versus economic growth in the Southeast of Brazil.

The conversion of natural ecosystems to agricultural land and urban areas plays a threat to the protected areas and the natural ecosystems conservation. The aim of this paper is to provide an analysis of the agricultural expansion and its impact on the landscape spatial and temporal patterns in a buffer zone of a protected area located in the transition zone between the Atlantic Forest and Cerrado, in the State of São Paulo, Brazil. The land use and land cover were mapped between 1971 and 2008 and landscape metrics were calculated to provide a spatiotemporal analysis of the forest structure and the expansion of the croplands. The results showed that the landscape patterns were affected by the economic cycles. The predominant crop surrounding the protected area is sugar cane, which increased by 39% during this period, followed by citrus. This landscape change is connected to the Brazilian oil crisis in 1973. The rapid expansion of sugar cane was largely driven by Brazil's biofuel program, the "Proálcool" (pro-alcohol), a project in 1975 that mixed ethanol with gas for automotive fuel. The forest loss occurred mainly between 1971 and 1988, decreasing the forest cover from 17% in 1971 to 12.7% in 2008. Most of the forest patches are smaller than 50 ha and has low connectivity. Throughout the years, the fragments in the buffer zone have become smaller and with an elongated shape, and the park has become isolated. This forest fragmentation process and the predominance of monoculture lands in the buffer zone threaten the protected areas, and can represent a barrier for these areas to provide the effective biodiversity conservation. The measures proposed are necessary to ensure the capability of this ecosystem to sustain its original biodiversity.

Moraes MC ，Mello K ，Toppa RH 《-》

CA-Markov prediction modeling for the assessment of land use/land cover change in two sub-basins of the Tocantins-Araguaia River Basin.

Due to the anthropogenic pressures of expansion areas for livestock and agricultural production in the Brazilian Cerrado, it is of paramount importance to understand the dynamics of land use/land cover (LULC) changes in this region. Thus, we investigated LULC changes in two sub-basins of the Tocantins-Araguaia River basin from 1997 to 2015 and consequently projected future changes for the timespan between 2030 and 2050. The Formoso sub-basin experienced significant expansion of agricultural and pasture areas, whereas the Sono sub-basin limited farmland expansion (more stable native vegetation) due to substantial protected areas, trends that were also observed for future projections (2030 and 2050). Pastureland in the Formoso sub-basin increased by 5.8%, while the Sono sub-basin saw significant gains in cultivated land, according to change detection analyses during the 1997-2015 period. High stability probabilities of no change (> 70%) for grassland areas in the Sono River sub-basin and pasturelands in the Formoso River sub-basin were computed. The CA-Markov model demonstrated a high consistency level with actual LULC classes for both sub-basins, as indicated by an overall Kappa coefficient above 0.8. Future projections for 2030 and 2050 show a substantial expansion of agriculture and pasture in both sub-basins, driven by specific factors such as soil organic carbon stocks, distance from rural settlements, and proximity to rivers. Short- and mid-term simulations indicate substantial expansion of agriculture and pasture in both basins, with potential adverse impacts on water erosion. Consequently, developing policies for soil management and sustainable land use planning is essential for agroecosystem sustainability, promoting a balanced approach to economic development while addressing climate change and anthropogenic challenges.

Dos Santos WP ，Acuña-Guzman SF ，de Oliveira PTS ，Beniaich A ，Cardoso DP ，Silva MLN ，Curi N ，Avanzi JC ... -  《-》