High Level of Chemokine CCL18 Is Associated With Pulmonary Function Deterioration, Lung Fibrosis Progression, and Reduced Survival in Systemic Sclerosis.

Markers for early identification of progressive interstitial lung disease (ILD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) are in demand. Chemokine CCL18, which has been linked to pulmonary inflammation, is an interesting candidate, but data have not been consistent. We aimed to assess CCL18 levels in a large, prospective, unselected SSc cohort with longitudinal, paired data sets on pulmonary function and lung fibrosis. Sera from the Oslo University Hospital SSc cohort (n = 298) and healthy control subjects (n = 100) were analyzed for CCL18 by enzyme immunoassay. High CCL18 (>53 ng/mL) was defined using the mean value plus 2 SD in sera obtained from healthy control subjects as the cutoff. High serum CCL18 was identified in 35% (105 of 298). Annual decline in FVC differed significantly between high and low CCL18 subsets (13.3% and 4.7%; P = .016), as did the annual progression rate of lung fibrosis (0.9% [SD, 2.9] and 0.2% [SD, 1.9]). Highest rates of annual FVC decline > 10% (21%) and annual fibrosis progression (1.2%) were seen in patients with high CCL18 and early disease (< 3 years). In multivariate analyses, CCL18 was associated with annual FVC decline > 10% (OR, 1.1; 95% CI, 1.01-1.11) and FVC < 70% at follow-up (OR, 3.1; 95% CI, 1.08-8.83). Survival analyses showed that patients with high CCL18 had reduced 5- and 10-year cumulative survival compared with patients with low CCL18 (85% and 74%, compared with 97% and 89%, respectively; P = .001). The results from this prospective cohort reinforce the notion that high CCL18 may serve as a marker for early identification of progressive ILD in SSc.

Hoffmann-Vold AM ，Tennøe AH ，Garen T ，Midtvedt Ø ，Abraityte A ，Aaløkken TM ，Lund MB ，Brunborg C ，Aukrust P ，Ueland T ，Molberg Ø ... -  《-》

Performance of Candidate Serum Biomarkers for Systemic Sclerosis-Associated Interstitial Lung Disease.

Interstitial lung disease (ILD) in systemic sclerosis (SSc) runs a highly variable course, and prediction tools are highly desired. The aim of this study was to assess the diagnostic and prognostic performance of 4 candidate serum biomarkers for SSc-associated ILD. Serum samples from a combined cohort of SSc patients (from Paris, France and Oslo, Norway; n = 427) were analyzed by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay for concentrations of lung epithelial-derived surfactant protein D (SP-D), Krebs von den Lungen 6 glycoprotein (KL-6), CCL18, and OX40 ligand (OX40L). Lung fibrosis was measured by high-resolution computed tomography and pulmonary function tests. Associations of these candidate biomarkers with baseline disease involvement and prediction of disease progression over time (mean ± SD follow-up 3.2 ± 4.4 years) were investigated. In SSc patients at baseline, serum levels of KL-6 correlated with the forced vital capacity (FVC) (r = -0.317, P < 0.001), diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (r = -0.335, P < 0.001), and extent of lung fibrosis (r = 0.551, P < 0.001). In multivariate analyses, serum levels of KL-6 and SP-D, but not CCL18 and OX40L, were associated with lung fibrosis (odds ratio [OR] 2.41, 95% confidence interval [95% CI] 1.43-4.07 [P = 0.001] and OR 3.15, 95% CI 1.81-5.48 [P < 0.001], respectively). In SSc patients with ILD at baseline, longitudinal, multivariate analyses showed that CCL18 serum levels were an independent predictor of a >10% decrease in the FVC (hazard ratio [HR] 2.90, 95% CI 1.25-6.73; P = 0.014) and de novo development of extensive disease (HR 3.71, 95% CI 1.02-13.52; P = 0.048). Matrix-based logistic regression models for the diagnosis and prognosis of SSc-associated ILD were constructed, and these models discriminated 3 groups of risk (mild, moderate, or high) for the diagnosis or worsening of lung fibrosis according to the serum levels of SP-D (for diagnosis) and serum levels of CCL18 (for progression of disease). These results show that SP-D is a relevant diagnostic biomarker for SSc-associated ILD, whereas KL-6 could be used to assess the severity of lung fibrosis. CCL18 appears to be a potential predictive marker for progression of ILD in SSc.

Elhai M ，Hoffmann-Vold AM ，Avouac J ，Pezet S ，Cauvet A ，Leblond A ，Fretheim H ，Garen T ，Kuwana M ，Molberg Ø ，Allanore Y ... -  《-》

Predictive value of serial high-resolution computed tomography analyses and concurrent lung function tests in systemic sclerosis.

Systemic sclerosis (SSc) carries a high risk of progressive interstitial lung disease (ILD), but tools for stratifying individual risk are scarce. The purpose of this study was to assess detailed data from serial lung fibrosis measurements and paired pulmonary function tests (PFTs) as outcome prediction tools in a prospective cohort of SSc patients. Paired PFTs and high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT) scans were obtained at baseline and at followup in 305 SSc patients who met the American College of Rheumatology/European League Against Rheumatism 2013 classification criteria. The extent of fibrosis was scored on 10 sections from every HRCT scan and expressed as the percentage of the total lung volume. Baseline HRCT analyses revealed 3 SSc subgroups: those with >20% lung fibrosis (n = 40), those with 1-20% fibrosis (n = 157), and those with no fibrosis (n = 108). At followup HRCT (mean of 3.1 years later), all 108 group 3 patients were still free of fibrosis. In group 2 patients, 146 continued to have 1-20% fibrosis (group 2a), whereas 11 (marked by short disease duration of 1.3 years) had experienced progression to >20% fibrosis (group 2b). The annual fibrosis progression rate differed across the 4 groups: 0.9% in group 1, 0.7% in group 2a, 5.9% in group 2b, and 0% in group 3. The annual fibrosis progression rate correlated with the total decline in the forced vital capacity (FVC) (7.1%, 5.7%, 8.7%, and 2.9% in groups 1, 2a, 2b, and 3, respectively), but not the diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLco) (8.4%, 7.7%, 7.7%, and 8.6%, respectively). Multivariate analyses identified anticentromere antibodies (odds ratio [OR] 4.7) and baseline DLco (OR 1.04) as predictors of no fibrosis at followup and baseline fibrosis (OR 1.3) and FVC (OR 0.96) as predictors of >20% fibrosis at followup. These prospective cohort data suggest that HRCT performed at baseline predicts the development of fibrosis, the rate of progression of fibrosis, and the decline in pulmonary function in SSc.

Hoffmann-Vold AM ，Aaløkken TM ，Lund MB ，Garen T ，Midtvedt Ø ，Brunborg C ，Gran JT ，Molberg Ø ... -  《-》

Short-Term Pulmonary Function Trends Are Predictive of Mortality in Interstitial Lung Disease Associated With Systemic Sclerosis.

To determine the prognostic value of pulmonary function test (PFT) trends at 1 and 2 years in interstitial lung disease (ILD) associated with systemic sclerosis (SSc). The prognostic significance of PFT trends at 1 year (n = 162) and 2 years (n = 140) was examined against 15-year survival in patients with SSc-associated ILD. PFT trends, expressed as continuous change and as categorical change in separate analyses, were examined against mortality in univariate and multivariate models. SSc-associated ILD was defined at presentation as either limited lung fibrosis or extensive lung fibrosis, using the United Kingdom Raynaud's and Scleroderma Association severity staging system. One-year PFT trends were predictive of mortality only in patients with extensive lung fibrosis: categorical change in the forced vital capacity (FVC), alone or in combination with categorical change in the diffusing capacity for carbon monoxide (DLco), had greater prognostic significance than continuous change in the FVC or trends in other PFT variables. Taking into account both prognostic value and sensitivity to change, the optimal definition of progression for trial purposes was an FVC and DLco composite end point, consisting of either an FVC decline from baseline of ≥10% or an FVC decline of 5-9% in association with a DLco decline of ≥15%. At 2 years, gas transfer trends had the greatest prognostic significance, in the whole cohort and in those with limited lung fibrosis. However, in patients with extensive lung fibrosis, the above-defined FVC and DLco composite end point was the strongest prognostic determinant. Larger changes in the FVC:DLco ratio than in the carbon monoxide transfer coefficient were required to achieve prognostic significance. Based on linkages to long-term outcomes, these findings provide support for use of routine spirometry and gas transfer monitoring in patients with SSc-associated ILD, with further evaluation of a composite FVC and DLco end point warranted for trial purposes.

Goh NS ，Hoyles RK ，Denton CP ，Hansell DM ，Renzoni EA ，Maher TM ，Nicholson AG ，Wells AU ... -  《-》

Association of gastroesophageal factors and worsening of forced vital capacity in systemic sclerosis.

Zhang XJ ，Bonner A ，Hudson M ，Canadian Scleroderma Research Group ，Baron M ，Pope J ... -  《-》