Accuracy of prediction of simulated polygenic phenotypes and their underlying quantitative trait loci genotypes using real or imputed whole-genome markers in cattle.

More accurate genomic predictions are expected when the effects of QTL (quantitative trait loci) are predicted from markers in close physical proximity to the QTL. The objective of this study was to quantify to what extent whole-genome methods using 50 K or imputed 770 K SNPs (single nucleotide polymorphisms) could predict single or multiple QTL genotypes based on SNPs in close proximity to those QTL. Phenotypes with a heritability of 1 were simulated for 2677 Hereford animals genotyped with the BovineSNP50 BeadChip. Genotypes for the high-density 770 K SNP panel were imputed using Beagle software. Various Bayesian regression methods were used to predict single QTL or a trait influenced by 42 such QTL. We quantified to what extent these predictions were based on SNPs in close proximity to the QTL by comparing whole-genome predictions to local predictions based on estimates of the effects of variable numbers of SNPs i.e. ±1, ±2, ±5, ±10, ±50 or ±100 that flanked the QTL. Prediction accuracies based on local SNPs using whole-genome training for single QTL with the 50 K SNP panel and BayesC0 ranged from 0.49 (±1 SNP) to 0.75 (±100 SNPs). The minimum number of local SNPs for an accurate prediction is ±10 SNPs. Prediction accuracies that were based on local SNPs only were higher than those based on whole-genome SNPs for both 50 K and 770 K SNP panels. For the 770 K SNP panel, prediction accuracies were higher than 0.70 and varied little i.e. between 0.73 (±1 SNP) and 0.77 (±5 SNPs). For the summed 42 QTL, prediction accuracies were generally higher than for single QTL regardless of the number of local SNPs. For QTL with low minor allele frequency (MAF) compared to QTL with high MAF, prediction accuracies increased as the number of SNPs around the QTL increased. These results suggest that with both 50 K and imputed 770 K SNP genotypes the level of linkage disequilibrium is sufficient to predict single and multiple QTL. However, prediction accuracies are eroded through spuriously estimated effects of SNPs that are distant from the QTL. Prediction accuracies were higher with the 770 K than with the 50 K SNP panel.

Hassani S ，Saatchi M ，Fernando RL ，Garrick DJ ... -  《-》

Genomic prediction using imputed whole-genome sequence data in Holstein Friesian cattle.

In contrast to currently used single nucleotide polymorphism (SNP) panels, the use of whole-genome sequence data is expected to enable the direct estimation of the effects of causal mutations on a given trait. This could lead to higher reliabilities of genomic predictions compared to those based on SNP genotypes. Also, at each generation of selection, recombination events between a SNP and a mutation can cause decay in reliability of genomic predictions based on markers rather than on the causal variants. Our objective was to investigate the use of imputed whole-genome sequence genotypes versus high-density SNP genotypes on (the persistency of) the reliability of genomic predictions using real cattle data. Highly accurate phenotypes based on daughter performance and Illumina BovineHD Beadchip genotypes were available for 5503 Holstein Friesian bulls. The BovineHD genotypes (631,428 SNPs) of each bull were used to impute whole-genome sequence genotypes (12,590,056 SNPs) using the Beagle software. Imputation was done using a multi-breed reference panel of 429 sequenced individuals. Genomic estimated breeding values for three traits were predicted using a Bayesian stochastic search variable selection (BSSVS) model and a genome-enabled best linear unbiased prediction model (GBLUP). Reliabilities of predictions were based on 2087 validation bulls, while the other 3416 bulls were used for training. Prediction reliabilities ranged from 0.37 to 0.52. BSSVS performed better than GBLUP in all cases. Reliabilities of genomic predictions were slightly lower with imputed sequence data than with BovineHD chip data. Also, the reliabilities tended to be lower for both sequence data and BovineHD chip data when relationships between training animals were low. No increase in persistency of prediction reliability using imputed sequence data was observed. Compared to BovineHD genotype data, using imputed sequence data for genomic prediction produced no advantage. To investigate the putative advantage of genomic prediction using (imputed) sequence data, a training set with a larger number of individuals that are distantly related to each other and genomic prediction models that incorporate biological information on the SNPs or that apply stricter SNP pre-selection should be considered.

van Binsbergen R ，Calus MP ，Bink MC ，van Eeuwijk FA ，Schrooten C ，Veerkamp RF ... -  《-》

Empirical and deterministic accuracies of across-population genomic prediction.

Differences in linkage disequilibrium and in allele substitution effects of QTL (quantitative trait loci) may hinder genomic prediction across populations. Our objective was to develop a deterministic formula to estimate the accuracy of across-population genomic prediction, for which reference individuals and selection candidates are from different populations, and to investigate the impact of differences in allele substitution effects across populations and of the number of QTL underlying a trait on the accuracy. A deterministic formula to estimate the accuracy of across-population genomic prediction was derived based on selection index theory. Moreover, accuracies were deterministically predicted using a formula based on population parameters and empirically calculated using simulated phenotypes and a GBLUP (genomic best linear unbiased prediction) model. Phenotypes of 1033 Holstein-Friesian, 105 Groninger White Headed and 147 Meuse-Rhine-Yssel cows were simulated by sampling 3000, 300, 30 or 3 QTL from the available high-density SNP (single nucleotide polymorphism) information of three chromosomes, assuming a correlation of 1.0, 0.8, 0.6, 0.4, or 0.2 between allele substitution effects across breeds. The simulated heritability was set to 0.95 to resemble the heritability of deregressed proofs of bulls. Accuracies estimated with the deterministic formula based on selection index theory were similar to empirical accuracies for all scenarios, while accuracies predicted with the formula based on population parameters overestimated empirical accuracies by ~25 to 30%. When the between-breed genetic correlation differed from 1, i.e. allele substitution effects differed across breeds, empirical and deterministic accuracies decreased in proportion to the genetic correlation. Using a multi-trait model, it was possible to accurately estimate the genetic correlation between the breeds based on phenotypes and high-density genotypes. The number of QTL underlying the simulated trait did not affect the accuracy. The deterministic formula based on selection index theory estimated the accuracy of across-population genomic predictions well. The deterministic formula using population parameters overestimated the across-population genomic accuracy, but may still be useful because of its simplicity. Both formulas could accommodate for genetic correlations between populations lower than 1. The number of QTL underlying a trait did not affect the accuracy of across-population genomic prediction using a GBLUP method.

Wientjes YC ，Veerkamp RF ，Bijma P ，Bovenhuis H ，Schrooten C ，Calus MP ... -  《-》

Impact of QTL minor allele frequency on genomic evaluation using real genotype data and simulated phenotypes in Japanese Black cattle.

Genetic variance that is not captured by single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) is due to imperfect linkage disequilibrium (LD) between SNPs and quantitative trait loci (QTLs), and the extent of LD between SNPs and QTLs depends on different minor allele frequencies (MAF) between them. To evaluate the impact of MAF of QTLs on genomic evaluation, we performed a simulation study using real cattle genotype data. In total, 1368 Japanese Black cattle and 592,034 SNPs (Illumina BovineHD BeadChip) were used. We simulated phenotypes using real genotypes under different scenarios, varying the MAF categories, QTL heritability, number of QTLs, and distribution of QTL effect. After generating true breeding values and phenotypes, QTL heritability was estimated and the prediction accuracy of genomic estimated breeding value (GEBV) was assessed under different SNP densities, prediction models, and population size by a reference-test validation design. The extent of LD between SNPs and QTLs in this population was higher in the QTLs with high MAF than in those with low MAF. The effect of MAF of QTLs depended on the genetic architecture, evaluation strategy, and population size in genomic evaluation. In genetic architecture, genomic evaluation was affected by the MAF of QTLs combined with the QTL heritability and the distribution of QTL effect. The number of QTL was not affected on genomic evaluation if the number of QTL was more than 50. In the evaluation strategy, we showed that different SNP densities and prediction models affect the heritability estimation and genomic prediction and that this depends on the MAF of QTLs. In addition, accurate QTL heritability and GEBV were obtained using denser SNP information and the prediction model accounted for the SNPs with low and high MAFs. In population size, a large sample size is needed to increase the accuracy of GEBV. The MAF of QTL had an impact on heritability estimation and prediction accuracy. Most genetic variance can be captured using denser SNPs and the prediction model accounted for MAF, but a large sample size is needed to increase the accuracy of GEBV under all QTL MAF categories.

Uemoto Y ，Sasaki S ，Kojima T ，Sugimoto Y ，Watanabe T ... -  《BMC GENETICS》

Genomic prediction of simulated multibreed and purebred performance using observed fifty thousand single nucleotide polymorphism genotypes.

Genomic prediction involves characterization of chromosome fragments in a training population to predict merit. Confidence in the predictions relies on their evaluation in a validation population. Many commercial animals are multibreed (MB) or crossbred, but seedstock populations tend to be purebred (PB). Training in MB allows selection of PB for crossbred performance. Training in PB to predict MB performance quantifies the potential for across-breed genomic prediction. Efficiency of genomic selection was evaluated for a trait with heritability 0.5 simulated using actual SNP genotypes. The PB population had 1,086 Angus animals, and the MB population had 924 individuals from 8 sire breeds. Phenotypic values were simulated for scenarios including 50, 100, 250, or 500 additive QTL randomly selected from 50K SNP panels. Panels containing various numbers of SNP, including or excluding the QTL, were used in the analysis. A Bayesian model averaging method was used to simultaneously estimate the effects of all markers on the panels in MB (or PB) training populations. Estimated effects were utilized to predict genomic merit of animals in PB (or MB) validation populations. Correlations between predicted and simulated genomic merit in the validation population was used to reflect predictive ability. Panels that included QTL were able to account for 50% or more of the within-breed genetic variance when the trait was influenced by 50 QTL. The predictive power eroded as the number of QTL increased. Panels that composed the QTL and no other markers were able to account for 50% or more genetic variance even with 500 QTL. Panels that included genomic markers as well as QTL had less predictive power as the number of markers on the panel was increased. Panels that excluded the QTL and relied on markers in linkage disequilibrium (LD) to predict QTL effects performed more poorly than marker panels with QTL. Real-life situations with 50K panels that excluded the QTL could account for no more than 20% genetic variation for 50 QTL and less than 10% for 500 QTL. The difference between panels that included and excluded QTL indicates that the predictive ability of existing panels is limited by their LD. Training in PB to predict MB tended to be more predictive than training in MB to predict PB due to greater average levels of LD in PB than in MB populations. Improved across breed prediction of genomic merit will require panels with more than 50,000 markers.

Kizilkaya K ，Fernando RL ，Garrick DJ 《-》