Tanzania's countdown to 2015: an analysis of two decades of progress and gaps for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health, to inform priorities for post-2015.

Tanzania is on track to meet Millennium Development Goal (MDG) 4 for child survival, but is making insufficient progress for newborn survival and maternal health (MDG 5) and family planning. To understand this mixed progress and to identify priorities for the post-2015 era, Tanzania was selected as a Countdown to 2015 case study. We analysed progress made in Tanzania between 1990 and 2014 in maternal, newborn, and child mortality, and unmet need for family planning, in which we used a health systems evaluation framework to assess coverage and equity of interventions along the continuum of care, health systems, policies and investments, while also considering contextual change (eg, economic and educational). We had five objectives, which assessed each level of the health systems evaluation framework. We used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) and did multiple linear regression analyses to explain the reduction in child mortality in Tanzania. We analysed the reasons for the slower changes in maternal and newborn survival and family planning, to inform priorities to end preventable maternal, newborn, and child deaths by 2030. In the past two decades, Tanzania's population has doubled in size, necessitating a doubling of health and social services to maintain coverage. Total health-care financing also doubled, with donor funding for child health and HIV/AIDS more than tripling. Trends along the continuum of care varied, with preventive child health services reaching high coverage (≥85%) and equity (socioeconomic status difference 13-14%), but lower coverage and wider inequities for child curative services (71% coverage, socioeconomic status difference 36%), facility delivery (52% coverage, socioeconomic status difference 56%), and family planning (46% coverage, socioeconomic status difference 22%). The LiST analysis suggested that around 39% of child mortality reduction was linked to increases in coverage of interventions, especially of immunisation and insecticide-treated bednets. Economic growth was also associated with reductions in child mortality. Child health programmes focused on selected high-impact interventions at lower levels of the health system (eg, the community and dispensary levels). Despite its high priority, implementation of maternal health care has been intermittent. Newborn survival has gained attention only since 2005, but high-impact interventions are already being implemented. Family planning had consistent policies but only recent reinvestment in implementation. Mixed progress in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health in Tanzania indicates a complex interplay of political prioritisation, health financing, and consistent implementation. Post-2015 priorities for Tanzania should focus on the unmet need for family planning, especially in the Western and Lake regions; addressing gaps for coverage and quality of care at birth, especially in rural areas; and continuation of progress for child health. Government of Canada, Foreign Affairs, Trade, and Development; US Fund for UNICEF; and the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Afnan-Holmes H ，Magoma M ，John T ，Levira F ，Msemo G ，Armstrong CE ，Martínez-Álvarez M ，Kerber K ，Kihinga C ，Makuwani A ，Rusibamayila N ，Hussein A ，Lawn JE ，Tanzanian Countdown Country Case Study Group ... -  《Lancet Global Health》

Progress and priorities for reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health in Kenya: a Countdown to 2015 country case study.

Progress in reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health (RMNCH) in Kenya has been inconsistent over the past two decades, despite the global push to foster accountability, reduce child mortality, and improve maternal health in an equitable manner. Although several cross-sectional assessments have been done, a systematic analysis of RMNCH in Kenya was needed to better understand the push and pull factors that govern intervention coverage and influence mortality trends. As such, we aimed to determine coverage and impact of key RMNCH interventions between 1990 and 2015. We did a comprehensive, systematic assessment of RMNCH in Kenya from 1990 to 2015, using data from nationally representative Demographic Health Surveys done between 1989 and 2014. For comparison, we used modelled mortality estimates from the UN Inter-Agency Groups for Child and Maternal Mortality Estimation. We estimated time trends for key RMNCH indicators, as defined by Countdown to 2015, at both the national and the subnational level, and used linear regression methods to understand the determinants of change in intervention coverage during the past decade. Finally, we used the Lives Saved Tool (LiST) to model the effect of intervention scale-up by 2030. After an increase in mortality between 1990 and 2003, there was a reversal in all mortality trends from 2003 onwards, although progress was not substantial enough for Kenya to achieve Millennium Development Goal targets 4 or 5. Between 1990 and 2015, maternal mortality declined at half the rate of under-5 mortality, and changes in neonatal mortality were even slower. National-level trends in intervention coverage have improved, although some geographical inequities remain, especially for counties comprising the northeastern, eastern, and northern Rift Valley regions. Disaggregation of intervention coverage by wealth quintile also revealed wide inequities for several health-systems-based interventions, such as skilled birth assistance. Multivariable analyses of predictors of change in family planning, skilled birth assistance, and full vaccination suggested that maternal literacy and family size are important drivers of positive change in key interventions across the continuum of care. LiST analyses clearly showed the importance of quality of care around birth for maternal and newborn survival. Intensified and focused efforts are needed for Kenya to achieve the RMNCH targets for 2030. Kenya must build on its previous progress to further reduce mortality through the widespread implementation of key preventive and curative interventions, especially those pertaining to labour, delivery, and the first day of life. Deliberate targeting of the poor, least educated, and rural women, through the scale-up of community-level interventions, is needed to improve equity and accelerate progress. US Fund for UNICEF, Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.

Keats EC ，Ngugi A ，Macharia W ，Akseer N ，Khaemba EN ，Bhatti Z ，Rizvi A ，Tole J ，Bhutta ZA ... -  《Lancet Global Health》

Status and drivers of maternal, newborn, child and adolescent health in the Islamic world: a comparative analysis.

The Millennium Development Goal (MDG) period saw dramatic gains in health goals MDG 4 and MDG 5 for improving child and maternal health. However, many Muslim countries in the south Asian, Middle Eastern, and African regions lagged behind. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the status of, progress in, and key determinants of reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health in Muslim majority countries (MMCs). The specific objectives were to understand the current status and progress in reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health in MMCs, and the determinants of child survival among the least developed countries among the MMCs; to explore differences in outcomes and the key contextual determinants of health between MMCs and non-MMCs; and to understand the health service coverage and contextual determinants that differ between best and poor or moderate performing MMCs. In this country-level ecological study, we examined data from between 1990 and 2015 from multiple publicly available data repositories. We examined 47 MMCs, of which 26 were among the 75 high-burden Countdown to 2015 countries. These 26 MMCs were compared with 48 non-Muslim Countdown countries. We also examined characteristics of the eight best performing MMCs that had accelerated improvement in child survival (ie, that reached their MDG 4 targets). We estimated adolescent, maternal, under-5, and newborn mortality, and stillbirths, and the causes of death, essential interventions coverage, and contextual determinants for all MMCs and comparative groups using standardised methods. We also did a hierarchical multivariable analysis of determinants of under-5 mortality and newborn mortality in low-income and middle-income MMCs. Despite notable reductions between 1990 and 2015, MMCs compared with a global esimate of all countries including MMCs had higher mortality rates, and MMCs relative to non-MMCs within Countdown countries also performed worse. Coverage of essential interventions across the continuum of care was on average lower among MMCs, especially for indicators of reproductive health, prenatal care, delivery, and labour, and childhood vaccines. Outcomes within MMCs for mortality and many reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health indicators varied considerably. Structural and contextual factors, especially state governance, conflict, and women and girl's empowerment indicators, were significantly worse in MMCs compared with non-MMCs within the high-burden Countdown countries, and were shown to be strongly associated with child and newborn mortality within low-income and middle-income MMCs. In adjusted hierarchical models, among other factors, under-5 mortality in MMCs increased with more refugees originating from a country (β=23·67, p=0·0116), and decreased with better political stability or absence of terrorism (β=-0·99, p=0·0285), greater political rights or government effectiveness (β=-1·17, p<0·0001), improvements in log gross national income per capita (β=-4·44, p<0·0001), higher total adult literacy (β=-1·69, p<0·0001), higher female adult literacy (β=-0·97, p<0·0001), and greater female to male enrolment in secondary school (β=-16·1, p<0·0001). The best performing MMCs were Azerbaijan, Bangladesh, Egypt, Indonesia, Kyrgyzstan, Morocco, Niger, and Senegal, which had higher coverage of family planning interventions and newborn or child vaccinations, and excelled in many of the above contextual determinants when compared with moderate or poorly performing MMCs. The status and progress in reproductive, maternal, newborn, child, and adolescent health is heterogeneous among MMCs, with little indication that religion and its practice affects outcomes systemically. Some Islamic countries such as Niger and Bangladesh have made great progress, despite poverty. Key findings from this study have policy and programmatic implications that could be prioritised by national heads of state and policy makers, development partners, funders, and the Organization of the Islamic Cooperation to scale up and improve these health outcomes in Muslim countries in the post-2015 era. US Fund for UNICEF under the Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Survival, the Centre for Global Child Health, Hospital for Sick Children, and the Aga Khan University.

Akseer N ，Kamali M ，Bakhache N ，Mirza M ，Mehta S ，Al-Gashm S ，Bhutta ZA ... -  《-》

Achieving maternal and child health gains in Afghanistan: a Countdown to 2015 country case study.

After the fall of the Taliban in 2001, Afghanistan experienced a tumultuous period of democracy overshadowed by conflict, widespread insurgency, and an inflow of development assistance. Although there have been several cross-sectional assessments of health gains over the last decade, there has been no systematic analysis of progress and factors influencing maternal and child health in Afghanistan. We undertook a comprehensive, systematic assessment of reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health in Afghanistan over the last decade. Given the paucity of high-quality data before 2001, we relied mainly on 11 nationally representative surveys conducted between 2003 and 2013. We estimated national and subnational time trends for key reproductive, maternal, and child health indicators, and used linear regression methods to determine predictors of change in health-care service use. All analyses were weighted for sampling and design effects. Additional information was collated and analysed about health system performance from third party surveys and about human resources from the Afghan Ministry of Public Health. Between 2003 and 2015, Afghanistan experienced a 29% decline in mortality of children younger than 5 years. Although definite reductions in maternal mortality remain uncertain, concurrent improvements in essential maternal health interventions suggest parallel survival gains in mothers. In a little over a decade (2003-13 inclusive), coverage of several maternal care interventions increased-eg, for antenatal care (16% to 53%), skilled birth attendance (14% to 46%), and births in a health facility (13% to 39%). Childhood vaccination coverage rates for the basic vaccines from the Expanded Programme of Immunisation (eg, BCG, measles, diphtheria-tetanus-pertussis, and three doses of polio) doubled over this period (about 40% to about 80%). Between 2005 and 2013, the number of deployed facility and community-based health-care professionals also increased, including for nurses (738 to 5766), midwives (211 to 3333), general physicians (403 to 5990), and community health workers (2682 to 28 837). Multivariable analysis of factors contributing to overall changes in skilled birth attendance and facility births suggests independent contributions of maternal literacy, deployment of community midwives, and proximity to a facility. Despite conflict and poverty, Afghanistan has made reasonable progress in its reproductive, maternal, newborn, and child health indicators over the last decade based on contributions of factors within and outside the health sector. However, equitable access to health care remains a challenge and present delivery models have high transactional costs, affecting sustainability. To maintain and further accelerate health and development gains, future strategies in Afghanistan will need to focus on investments in improving social determinants of health and targeted cost-effective interventions to address major causes of maternal and newborn mortality. US Fund for UNICEF under the Countdown to 2015 for Maternal, Newborn, and Child Survival grant from the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, and from the Government of Canada, Foreign Affairs, Trade and Development Canada. Additional direct and in-kind support was received from the UNICEF Country Office Afghanistan, the Centre for Global Child Health, the Hospital for Sick Children, Toronto, the Aga Khan University, and Mother and Child Care Trust (Pakistan).

Akseer N ，Salehi AS ，Hossain SM ，Mashal MT ，Rasooly MH ，Bhatti Z ，Rizvi A ，Bhutta ZA ... -  《Lancet Global Health》

Countdown to 2015 country case studies: what have we learned about processes and progress towards MDGs 4 and 5?

Moucheraud C ，Owen H ，Singh NS ，Ng CK ，Requejo J ，Lawn JE ，Berman P ，Countdown Case Study Collaboration Group ... -  《BMC PUBLIC HEALTH》