Nomograms for predicting the prognosis of stage IV colorectal cancer after curative resection: a multicenter retrospective study.

Although stage IV colorectal cancer (CRC) encompasses a wide variety of clinical conditions with diverse prognoses, no statistical model for predicting the postoperative prognosis of stage IV CRC has been established. Thus, we here aimed to construct a predictive model for disease-free survival (DFS) and overall survival (OS) after curative surgery for stage IV CRC using nomograms. The study included 1133 stage IV CRC patients who underwent curative surgical resection in 19 institutions. Patients were divided into derivation (n = 586) and validation (n = 547) groups. Nomograms to predict the 1- and 3-year DFS rates and the 3- and 5-year OS rates were constructed using the derivation set. Calibration plots were constructed, and concordance indices (c-indices) were calculated. The predictive utility of the nomogram was validated in the validation set. The postoperative carcinoembryonic antigen (CEA) level, depth of tumor invasion (T factor), lymph node metastasis (N factor), and number of metastatic organs were adopted as variables for the DFS-predicting nomogram, whereas the postoperative CEA level, T factor, N factor, and peritoneal dissemination were adopted for the nomogram to predict OS. The nomograms showed moderate calibration, with c-indices of 0.629 and 0.640 in the derivation set and 0.604 and 0.637 in the validation set for DFS and OS, respectively. The nomograms developed were capable of estimating the probability of DFS and OS on the basis of only 4 variables, and may represent useful tools for postoperative surveillance of stage IV CRC patients in routine practice.

Kawai K ，Ishihara S ，Yamaguchi H ，Sunami E ，Kitayama J ，Miyata H ，Sugihara K ，Watanabe T ... -  《-》

Nomograms to predict survival after colorectal cancer resection without preoperative therapy.

Zhang ZY ，Luo QF ，Yin XW ，Dai ZL ，Basnet S ，Ge HY ... -  《BMC CANCER》

Nomogram prediction of metachronous colorectal neoplasms in patients with colorectal cancer.

Kawai K ，Ishihara S ，Yamaguchi H ，Sunami E ，Kitayama J ，Miyata H ，Watanabe T ... -  《-》

A nomogram to predict overall survival and disease-free survival after curative resection of gastric adenocarcinoma.

Kim Y ，Spolverato G ，Ejaz A ，Squires MH ，Poultsides G ，Fields RC ，Bloomston M ，Weber SM ，Votanopoulos K ，Acher AW ，Jin LX ，Hawkins WG ，Schmidt C ，Kooby D ，Worhunsky D ，Saunders N ，Levine EA ，Cho CS ，Maithel SK ，Pawlik TM ... -  《-》

Inflammation-based prognostic system predicts postoperative survival of colorectal cancer patients with a normal preoperative serum level of carcinoembryonic antigen.

Ishizuka M ，Nagata H ，Takagi K ，Iwasaki Y ，Kubota K ... -  《-》